Informing policy development for sustainable and productive food production systems in dry areas. Kamel Shideed
Informing Policy Development for Sustainable and Productive Food Production Systems in Dry Areas 5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture and 3rd Farming Systems Design Conference 26-29 September 2011, Brisbane- Australia K. Shideed, ICARDA
Outline of the Presentation Context of global food production Status of water availability and on-farm WUE in Dry Areas Pathways and interventions to improve efficiency in Dry Areas Informing policy development Policy and research implications
Global Food Security Challenges In light of the growing impacts of climate change, there is a need to produce 70-100 % more food to meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices (FAO) More than 1 Billion people suffer from food insecurity and malnutrition (IAASTD, 2009) These challenges are amplified by increased purchasing power and shifts in consumers’ preferences in many countries Barriers to food access and distribution, particularly in poorest countries NR degradation Climate change Expensive energy Despite recent innovations and technological advances, this combination of drivers poses complex challenges for global agriculture to ensure food security Dry areas face the alarming NR limitations and degradations, particularly water scarcity. The goal of agricultural sector is NOT only to maximize productivity, but to optimize it in terms of production, rural development, environmental and social outcomes.
Relationship between Food Production and Poverty Growth in cereal yields and lower cereal prices significantly reduced food insecurity Proportion of undernourished population declined from 26% to 14% between 1967-71 and 2000-2002 Source: FAO. 2o11. Save and Grow. FAO, Rome
Crop Production: Area Expansion and Yield Growth 70% of the increase in crop production between 1961 and 2005 was due to yield increase 23% to the expansion of arable land 8% to crop intensification Area growth dominated in Sub- Saharan Africa Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland. K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC
Cereal Productivity: Net Food ImportingCountries Lag Behind World Averages Source: Adapted from FAO, 2008b.
Causes of Declining Productivity Growth: Decreased Investment in Agricultural R-4-D Since the mid-1970s, CGIAR funding levels have stagnatedIn $ millions 9
Status of water availability and on-farm WUE in Dry Areas
Natural Scarcity of Water in Dry Areas Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita Australia/New Zealand 35 Most countries in dry areas are Latin America & Caribbean 34.5 facing increasing water scarcity North America 20.3 Region Europe & Central Asia 13 MENA is the world’s most Sub-Saharan Africa 8 water-scarce region East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas) Western Europe 5.4 5.6 Highest water withdrawn in dry South Asia 2.7 Middle East & North Africa areas 1.1 0 10 20 30 40 Future projections of population ARWR per capita (1000m /yr) 3 growth suggest further Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%) decrease in per capita water Middle East & North Africa 72.7 availability in dry areas (from South Asia 25.1 Western Europe 10.3 1100 m3/yr to 550 m3/yr in East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas) 9.4 2050) Region North America 8 Europe & Central Asia 6.2 Increased competition on water Australia/New Zealand 3.2 More research investment for Sub-Saharan Africa 2.2 Percent of total renewable water resources withdrawn Latin America & Caribbean 1.4 efficient, sustainable , and 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 equitable water use Percent
Implications of Water Scarcity on Human Poverty and Access to Food Water Poverty Index (WPI) and HDI for non-tropical dry-area countries Water poverty contributes greatly to the low HDI (human poverty) of poor countries in dry areas Direct relationship between access to water and access to food and feed security Access to water and food in developing countries and countries in transition Irrigation accounts for 80-90% of all water used in dry areas Increasing competition on water is expected to reduce agriculture share to 50% by 2050
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Tajikistan KyrgyztanTurkmenistan Kazakhstan Sudan Turkey Pakistan Mauritania Iran Ethiopia Syria Lebanon Eriterea in Dry Areas Uzbekistan WPI Morocco Oman Food In-Security Tunisia Algeria FoodSI,x100 Egypt Water Poverty Explains 43% of the Yemen Relationship between Food Security and WPI UAESaudi Arabia Jordan
Status of On-farm WUE Wheat FWUE in Selected Areas in WANA Farmer WUE %FWUE = the ratio of the required 90amount of water for a targetproduction level to the actual 70amount of water used. 50FWUE = 1 perfect efficiency > 1 under -irrigation 30 < 1 over -irrigation 10 0 Fixed, allocate-able input model Variable input model Behavioral model Own-crop price and acreage Cross-crop prices and acreages Irrigation technologyFactors Affecting Water Allocation Crop choice Decisions Are Farmers’ perceptions on crop water requirements Amount of rainfall Socio-economic characteristics
Main Results of On-farm WUE and their Implications A wide gap between required and actual water application, implying high potential for saving water (e.g., 40-60% in wheat production). Producers perceive water as a fixed input in the short run, but allocatable among competing crops on the farm Crop choice, crop prices, planted areas, irrigation technology appear to be strong determinants of water allocation in the short run among competing crops. Water prices, since they were highly subsidized, did not have a major quantitative impact on water allocation.
Pathways and Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas
Pathways to Improve Efficiency3 pathways Remove system inefficiencies (B to D) Invest in breakthrough technologies that increase the efficiency of resource use while reducing risk (D to C) Invest in breakthrough technologies that offer greater return for the same level of risk (D to F) Source: Carberry, P., et al., 2010 and Keating et al., 2010.
Options to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas 5 Interventions (among others) Closing the yield gap Investing in technology development and promotion (e.g., CA) Sustainable intensification of production systems Investing in water saving technologies Investing in agricultural R-4-D
Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 1. Closing the Yield GapIdentifying Potential Gains (Wheat in Syria) Large gap between potential and actual yields The need to better understand causes for yield gaps Opportunities for increasing food production
Potential Land Availability vs. Potential for Increasing Yields Type 1: Little land for expansion, low yield gap Type 2: Suitable land available, low yield gap Type 3: Little land available, high yield gap Type 4: Suitable land available, high yield gap Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland. K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC
Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 2. Conservation AgricultureAdoption of Conservation Agriculture in WA: CA is spreading rapidly in WA. Adoption has grown from near-zero to more than 27,000 ha in four yearsDriving Forces for Adoption• Soil-moisture conservation, thusimproving WUE & reducing thelikelihood of crop failure• Cost savings (fuel, labor, seeds)• Better understanding of the impactpathway• Effectively linking R to D (PPpartnership)• Active participation of farmers AusAID/ACIAR supported project on conservation agriculture in• Enabling policy environment Iraq and Syria
Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 3. Sustainable Intensification of Production SystemsIntegrated agricultural production systems for the poorand vulnerable in dry areas (CRP1.1):Two main target systems:o Most vulnerable systemso Systems with the greatest potential for impactObjectives: Sustainable productivity growth and intensified productionsystems at the farm and landscape levels More resilient dryland agro-ecosystems that can cope withclimate variation and change Less vulnerable and improved rural livelihoods Agricultural innovation systems that improve the impact ofresearch and development investmentsFive Dryland Regions: West Africa Sahel and dry savannas,East and Southern Africa, WANA, Central Asia, South Asia
Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 4. Water Saving Technologies (SI) Curve water and yield(wheat z1 ) 8000With Improved SI 7000Technology: 6000 yield (KG/Ha) 5000• Produce more food 4000 3000under the same level 2000 y = -0.00061x2 + 2.89495x + 3321.20559 y = -0.00037x2 + 2.16536x + 3037.50960of water applied 1000 2 R = 0.73139 R2 = 0.62988 0• Prevent the excessive 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000use of water Water (m3/ha) sprinkler zone 1 surface zone 1 Poly. (sprinkler zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1)
Estimates of TE, IE and cost efficiency under SI, wheat farms in Syria- 2010 Irrigation N Technical Irrigation Irrigation methodz efficiency water water (%) efficiency technical cost (%) efficiency (%) Surface 186 70 66 89 Improved 142 89 75 91 Total Farms 328 78 69.9 89.9 Potential to increase wheat yield by 22% Potential to reduce the amount of water use by 30% potential to reduce total cost of production by 10% Even among farmers using improved technology (sprinklers), there still 25% gap in irrigation water efficiency that need to be closed
Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 5. Investing in Agricultural R-4-D R-4-D improves food security through sustainable productivity growth R-4-D gives high returns to investment (65%) However, R-4-D has experienced significant under investment (e.g., CGIAR) Importance of science and technological innovation to: Meet growing demand for food Maintain market competitiveness Address poverty Adapt to and mitigate cc
Role of Science and Technology in Sustainable Food Production Systems Science is essential but not sufficient to ensure productivity growth and food security Importance of Socioeconomic and environmental factors Source: Austin (2010)
Informing Policy Development Significant challenges to developing policies that support the development of more sustainable land use and efficient production systems (Pretty, et al, 2010) The complexity and often lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers Political- economy factors can be crucial, particularly for management of NR Providing policy makers with new research information is necessary, but not sufficient to foster adoption of recommendations by politicians There is a need to seek improved dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy There is a need to ensure that policy decisions are informed by scientific knowledge and priorities. It is, also, important that research should be focusing on priorities that influence current and future policy frameworks and be relevant to the needs and priorities of farmers
Adoption paths with Policy-oriented Research Without policy, adoption would have accelerated slowly. Adoption faster and reached higher ceiling level under policy Alternative adoption paths due to research
Policies to Encourage Adoption of Water Saving Technologies: Water User Charges Despite the benefits of ISI, the TSI is still practiced by many farmers (78% of wheat farmers) with an average irrigation water application rate of 2600m3/ha. What can the government do to encourage adoption? One option is to introduce “Water User Charges”
Impact of Water User Charge on Water Use and the Adoption of ISI (wheat in Syria) Promotes the User Charge Profit Actual Use by conservation of ($/m3)* Maximizing Farmers (m3/ha) scarce Application Rate groundwater (m3/ha) Substantial increases in water 0 2375 2686 charges to make farmers apply the recommended level of water (demand 0.11 2075 (sprinklers) is highly inelastic) Importance of extension to reduce Water demand the actual water 0.20 (82% 1800 (13% elasticity = - 0.16 use to its profit increase) decrease) maximizing level * User charge is charging a specific level of “water user charge” for every cubic meter applied in excess of the recommended application level of 1800 m3/ha
Economic of Improved Technology (Shift from TSI to ISI)Item TSI +surface TSI +sprinklers ISI + sprinkler canalMP (kg/m3) 0.36 0.69 1.39Yield (kg/ha) 4387 4829 4555Adoption rate 55 23 22(%)Irrigation water 2600 1870 1480application(m3/ha)Additional profit 162.0 235.5($/ha/yr) Huge reduction in the amount of water applied, Big saving in the amount of diesel, total 49.8 B liters per year, value =$20M/yr
Policy and Research Implications Future agriculture should increase output and efficiency of resources use Huge potential of technological innovation to improve food security The need for supportive policies and institutions to enhance the adoption The challenge is to inform the development of enabling policies
Policy and Research Implications- continued Importance of land tenure in the adoption of soil-conserving and NRM technologies (the need for secured land tenure) Investments in dry areas generate not only economic benefits, but important environmental and social gains Policies create most of the conditions that lead to greater resource-use efficiency Well designed, and implemented policies are the key to efficient use of scarce resources, growth in farm income and protection of the environment Key policy messages: Enabling policies to enhance the uptake and adoption of improved technologies (e.g., CA, water saving technologies) Water valuation and pricing above a specific level of water use (water user charges) Supporting R-4-D and Extension Increased investment in agriculture, particularly dry areas
Putting-it-all TogetherClosing the yield gap and achieving sustainableproductivity growth involves not just transferringknown technologies and practices to farmers,but“Putting in place the institutional (and Policy)structure—especially well-functioning input andoutput markets, access to finance, and ways tomanage risk—that farmers need to adopt thetechnology” (Keating et al., 2010)
Perspectives of Policy Makers/World Leaders for Dry Areas“Dryland farming is ofgreat importance forglobal food security aswell as for a secondGreen Revolution inIndia”--- H.E the President ofIndia, Smt. Pratibha Patil The President of India (left) wants research partnerships to be expanded. Rainfed agriculture – ICARDA’s core expertise – accounts for 40% of farmland in India.
Water Poverty in Dry Areas Water resources are misused and are not managed sustainably, thus contributing to scarcity CWANA Ranking according to WPI - Selected Countries160 Falkenmark_Rank WPI_Rank14012010080604020 0 Turkey Syria Egypt Algeria Tajikistan Tunisia Turkmenistan Yemen Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Sudan Pakistan Uzbekistan Ethiopia
Potential Availability of Uncultivated Land in Different RegionsMore than half of landpotentially available forexpansion of cultivatedarea is located in tencountries, of which fiveare in Africa Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland. K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC
Concluding Remarks Next Revolution in Food Production: Bridges yield gap & develops breakthrough innovations (technologies) Removes inefficiencies in production and resources use Targets sustainable productivity growth “Knowledge- intensive” NOT “input/resource intensive” Addresses food and nutritional security Goes beyond cereals and diversify to include high-value crops Deals with sustainability and environment Based on intensification and integrated system approach (agro-ecology, agro- forestry, and conservation agriculture) Requires enabling policy, institution and market environments Addresses social inequalities
Main Elements of Sustainable Food Security What involves? 4Es Efficiency Environment Equity Enabling policy and market environments How? R-4-D & E Partnerships Increased investments in agriculture Conductive policies for efficiency gains Risk management systems Connectivity (knowledge and markets) Capacity development
Informing Policy development Food security concerns led to policy debate Current ag. Policies in developing countries are inadequate, and ineffective in protecting the fragile NR base Land degradation and water scarcity are occurring rapidly, in both dryland and irrigated systems It is hard to protect and conserve communal owned NR (rangeland & water) The need to inform policy development through “conceptual influence”
Food Price Inflation and Volatility: A Wake-up Call for Leaders and Institutions Price Index, July 2008 = 100 (Prices through to end January120 2011)110 Agricultural Price… Agricultural Price Index Grain Price Index Grain Price Index100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Links between Rainfall and GDP Growth (Ethiopia) Agriculture is most vulnerable sector There is close association between GDP growth and rainfall (in Ethiopia) Indicates the importance of rainfed farming and high dependence on agriculture Source: The World Bank. 2009. Making Development Climate Resilient. Report N0. 46947-AFR