一个证券分析师的醒悟

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About value investment in China market

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一个证券分析师的醒悟

  1. 1. n_ - CHIN Cni'JC 'PRESS
  2. 2. . =M.fEMiJI!I (CIP, ltil - 1'VElf7tfiJJifiA911119: ~.ft~it$mtm-it5t~«::mw . -:ft~ = tfl:mmJtft.*- 1 · , 201.0. s ISBN 978 --7-5086-2246 ·-0 1.. - ··.. n. ~ .~ m. iiE~·tiYt-3limu IV. F830. 91 - 49 rfli~[.Qi*fll.:fStfr C:IP lttl-¥ (2010) jfJ 1.42322% YIG·E ZHEN'GQ.UA.N FENXISHI DE XINGWU. ' e -:~ittff MlfJttr: t:frl(~ ttlllfi;Jt (China cmc Press) aw-rM~ d:il&tfJL~ ttula:tr:·lf'mllilfi-mJRst1iIIR*iiJ( ,It ~;( •u•u~liK••*•• 4 ~-••·*.Ill zli at~• uxJ029 ) ( ~lTI·C P'uhlishing Group)1 ~ ;p tt: ~~~~tt;tHiittmJJr· *: s·80mm1>< 1230mm I/32 )!:: 2010 4f 91 ,Jj jfJ 1 mi '~ -·=7. 25 * It:: 180 f~ ,SJJ ~: 20to£F 11 JJ!B 3~Sf.JIJ Cl I·s::-BN.. 9·71-; 7 5-:-no£ 2246- o·/F ,..046.- . : , ·_. ·rr.-. :- ,_ Piiiiilli iiiiii 1~.-1 > _ ·_ - 1 _· . ·• ~ -- . 22 f1t: 30.00 Jt 111:-kl!~.* • ( I· lnJLD .-'laTAI71; ~ .~ ffA.Z~~ JLJIJ*-it!J 4' ,, ~t'4itJf t;J Ji, Jl Ji t dJ~.ft~,§J Ji t':ft.flo 814;-~~ : 010-84849283 http://www. publiSh. citic. com ll41-ft ~: 010-84849000 E-mail :sales@ cilicpub. com .author@ citicpub. ·com
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  7. 7. ~ 1¥ t9:ilUU!li.R , J!: XI tN.'ii'i;f!J®lffi I H~ ' 1~11*1f5%1410 ft~ f~)XfillSfMttt-J1L'~xtfttt-J ~1*:ff~H~0 .:X.tt~O, ftm!f-~){M"g{1~ii~~ · x~~~Yi (John Templeton, x~ •oa~tt-J~~Al tt-J-~~~: "*M~M~~~~-.-~ft Y!rta {B£, :!IO*i~~~ii:Ar!Jtf-JiiHilliffl, 59:i'lJL!" (It is time in the market, not timing the market, that counts. l iXi;iSi£&*mM $,1B·~*~3~aM~*M*W.~$-~~*tfJ, ~~~1* ~*~~*~0~tfJ~~~~~*"gtJX~M$n~£JX#~·~ ~$~~.~~€~.~~*€~~~*0~--htt-J~~*fi~ 1f11~J.HEX't4ij1-~~~:ff 12 1'f] tfJ § *Fffi-:m (target price) , X1* &(mal ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~•o*A•iX#•*~ 10~~~. ~M"m~~~~iiiX#•tt-JmM±~.mili~~ftH~~ &iX#·tt-J~Wtlo~O·~-~-T-tfJ,T-1'-*m,B~~~~ €~tt-J~ffi",~ffi",mffi"~~-.~ftW*8£m~~fitt-J•Mo iX~~ili~fttt-JQm~•~. ~~~£ftxtii*tA~fttt-J~•~
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  10. 10. 151 Contents 1!!1 " ttwa•iA. ~&,biUDtltl 0 •- i!iD~U@tlfJ:Ia /ll!:~~~~~;l!;~ I 3 J'9:1i'f~ C~:!l~·£7C ~ I 8 ~fcJ~t~so -7o Rill!:~ 113 ~i'i!r-·!l.f"~H I 16 1i"$t£1'"5ti I 20 BJ5t~~~~~$1'~ I 23 ft~i!f*~:i:ftlli!:IP I 26 ~~~~'§';; /32 e M=a GillftJiiiJJI. ..JI!ib'fi? ~/ll!:~:*.liffi~? I 41 ~Ill!:~~tH1HFHIi;1i'f:!E.'& I 44 Ill!:~ 1'~;J11.- f,li] I 46 ~.'&&: ~~·*•*·~~~ttl~ ffl ~J.'&:1'9:1i'f~ IU6~/ll!:~ I 56 ftxtJl:trr.'&~:fi-5! I 60 $~te'J10Cfo.l~ ~:it? I 66 ~JJ.t~$ ~ftitl!fim: I 76 ~ff:§:11i~~~~~fi'if" I 79 ~n:llH1F~Ill!:~~ft.:~ 7 -*······ I 88 ffli~ft-~Jll' ft~fcJ~MIP~? I 91 G •= "
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  12. 12. ft~:iJI~j ~§l;t~ 500 1~~~~ (Vanguard 500 Index Fund) ~'fl:lJ~~J,jkJ~ ·ism {John Bogle) ~~$:~. -$:~ffu2007 if'§] ~<*•~•=n~H=m~m~~m•~$> (~~k&~~ Common Sense Investing) , n-.$:~ ffu 2008 ij:. '§) ~ ( ~ 7) ( £- oo~)o~~.$:~~~~~~+~-~.ftre~~~~~. ~w~ ft~c. m~~::t~¥o ;t~H~~~ao1sm~.~m•~•~~~~?@~tttta a.~~-~.R~~7•ft~tt.n~7m§~o~~~~-~m ~.H~~~*R~·~**~~*~Bo~~~~tD•H~~· ~·li~~~~fflo~~~ffl§~~~~$:,~~~~~m~oM ~*M*~· **~~11i~1D.1fifj]Ji!l'f1IIiSI~z]g, 7C~I=m~£ 4%-6%, liS!Jit, **-=f-JJ:f~Jj~~ffl~tt:l:o ~~~-~~~~ Jli~ ~~-~D~.~MM.*mo~~-~-~Lx~-~~2-­ :1-~tfito ~~~~oo~i!=-~Hmm~~. :f~fi=tm~~ffili~~~
  13. 13. m.~~~~ID~~*~~-o~ft~~?~~~too*~~~~ ~~-*~~~?-~~M4.:k~-~~~*~W~-~~~~ ~li:Jio 1:B~:f~A~91!1'liJi, @i!t-T~-la~*~L'o -ftk1niA ~.§~~~~~-~-~.~~~-:km.~~c~~~~­ ill, llJHt~tJ~'L'II-.fl, ~Jtt, ~,~fmll&:kmo fticftJL$il ;ltt~f£*51t1=~-1'~*fM*~f01~i}ljfl, ~~~1fil: 19% ~ A-~~caT~~~A--~l%~~~0 ~m~~~~~~.•~~ u~~~.~-~~m~~~ I ~~~~ill-M~QM~~~·--~~~oM~*M*t,M­ ~~fi~~~A~-~m~,&M$--~*~~-~-0 ~ADJM-MalJt: "iti!t~.=:li1F€Atiit!J§liiA~f.Rao" DJ~ m~-Bam,~a~Ma*$7~?~~-..mMfi ~-mto ~~fi.-~Maa*$~?-fi-4,M~~~H~~~ft** *~.=1i~o ~if*_t~ "~fii§J.!EI" (Reversio~ to the Mean) it 1ij{~~f4-o .. . lliJL+iF*, ii*-~at.IWAJ!It~~·8·7 ~c~lltJTJIM~* ~*-W~~--.~~~~a*fi~-*-~H.~~-*~~. . m~~~~M~~-~-*-*o·€~m~~~~-~~~~~• tt,A~~~--o-*fi*~~-~--. ~~&R~~-* $o~~-~--~~ill*~~~:k$,~ffi~~--~2~?~ ~~~-~~-m, ~&~**~~~~-m.~~rr~~~mR ~M-:kmof£~~~~**·--,~~1§]~$~~~~+~~. -~t%d~2%~-m*M-~-~~A~-*om~~~~- I
  14. 14. m-m- 5 .IHH0Ofll~~(l(J ~~ ¥~in£~~£M. •m~£~Utl~.~~£•~~~? ffiMm.&~h~~M~A~~*~~--~.fiftR.~* •~.m~~-~~~~~in~~-li~~-.~~~•~m~• ~iio isM~ 2i'F7*:&:ifal~, ~51 ffl7 *:ilfXJJHJl.t1il;f!JA±~fiJf ~0 tt:tm, ~51 ffl7 ~ ~ *$!~~~~ !m'19:?81 'g it~ · wrx~ (David Swensen} ~fiJf~: .:(£~~!]~!.~)(~~~~, .R1f~4% ~-~ .:tEM*w~~~-m~;fll·ffl~€ftWMa**·~~~~~* ~.R£tt**~@l:tii$~7 o. 6% ~e; ~ 96% ~-~J~eHitr**· ~~•~•m•=~~•~m•4.8%o*••~•~~~~;fll~ •~£~~. ~££m~•~~-~~mM.isM~£moa~• •~-~m~.~··~A~~•••.m~~~-·~~&~• (If] A iiJ ~:J.*•••<c ~fi20~.:(£·~~1f-~m~H~h~-£~?8l~~h~. t9:'6!m.wrDJ 1nma~ ifJm~19:?8l ~W~~#&:i:. iOJwt~':A. 1DJ 131~ tl:l . ~ 1fft$o~-.~ll~A~£~~*~~~.¥~~~A;fll~tl:~~ £~1f·ffl~oA1f~M·~~£ . .:tEM*W~~. ~-~~ff] :ft#~-~~ @ltli$F~M·¥~ in lll 1L'PfT~fiJTm ~~~~ @l t!i$o M*W~~.~~~~~-~~ . .R1f···~ (~~M~ son} ~*~5t~ (Bill Miller} ~-~)i~ 15 ~J~HIJtf;f.Jttirf~ 500 m~.mm•~•~~~*.€*~~~~*7.~:i:~~-~~ 7.~~~*~*Ma7o~fi~~~~F~M•**o*~5t~ ft~~m•**~~~~tl:l~~.~-~~*~•m~m•**•
  15. 15. ~~t'fJ*~fe~"I!IJlo E¥4ttfi*9ijj*~HJJ •*'•JB- (Benjamin Graham) :liJlftiiE ~;.tfifi.ika'itfLIJa.llo -ft!!IJrt1f (1976 ~) ~7fjftX'tli[5f;:;tfi ~~m~~-*~~-0~~~-m~: ·a~~-~**W~~ llo40~SiJ ('PP20titge30~ft), !IJ~R:il:i:JHtlt, ~Itt, iii* ~f.fiJ:Ain:k~;li'Jo DJ~~, $RJHtll8ft:k-11fitJ(]A&I:iJf ~i'J:, =f'¥J{t~JfAt.JIJj]*Sf~o 0 "*' iJl~ffk~;A:~tli£, 1'~flk~~~~~iiE~?tffrrlt ( ~~Atfi-fill!) 1iiDJi,11to 18*& srm~1'tk$:f~ilti- &m~~llti, ifii:1:~&~~,~1!11 *mo fatail, -~fn~Vlit!J-~~trna:t:, ~fnlfJ:I:-l§Jlf'o i!t *~~*~~~~ft***~~*~~~~~o~-~~R--~ ~~-o~~~-~~-*~-~~~~~~~~,@-~~A~ -I~:1!:fiJ:1f}ll£~0 '*ffl:k~li~tfJI1}W.J~'St~~-~3t • *51! (Jack Meyer) ~ lk~Pl!.i!JfAo fll!i£ 2004 ~~~~~ (if(jk_.I.Jflj) ie,=lfi.Jt: "Jl1'~ -fi~~~-~*•~o*~ftA~~~m~tt~a*~~-*~ Jf*;kJflkifJJIM, imRiA'-185% -90% (f]~~~JI~Il-:km~o 10rt¥ltmz~, flkfrJ;I:jl-a~!i!til~o" 1~~~-~*A~-~~~m~~~.*~W~,tt~*~~ *M~*~~~-**-~~fioK____+_e_A~M A &M aom~~*7:k-~ft--~.M~*M*W,m--* mmm~,lia~-~-~~~~~~~$.mM~*~Dw~m
  16. 16. m-• 7 llll:~MiHI'.if-1!If-~ m~~~-~~~;~a~o1a~~~*~~&•w~•~**~~ f:..&LfJo 1000 7Ct9:~~Q*4ij~@lt& 6% 1 10 ~z,fg"(f~ 1791 7C 1 20 ~z,Jg1f~ 3 201 JCo f!Eif~~niJ5.2ifcJM$Ef-J*illi~±tHt•~Ef-J* 'iffi~!H~~o ~~-.~1o~*m••~*~~~~~~o~&~a~. ~ g*~~*~0~.I•~~~&t:.~Et-J·~~*~re-s~~• •~m••~o1a~•~*•~~~~•m~•~Et-Jmfta~. ~ g~~~~*ff~•~Et-Jm••~. ~~~-~•~*~~nEt-J~ •. fifi~~~~--Ef-j~-.-~Ef-J~A~~~7~~o~Z, ll9: ft:fDaft1niJdl];~~ tt1~ § c. ~t ~~J.AJ!lMEJ ~ 1a~~ 1975 ~-e~~ 7tttW_t~-~t~••~ 7taa~. ~~~~A~·~-00~S~Q~~IOOQ.Z.~cf!EEt-J~~~~7a -~~.~~~n~m~--of!EA+~M~E~~~~.~~75 ~·filf+~~~oftm~mfiE~~Ef-jfi.of!EEf-J~*~~~~~ tt-.~~A~ft~~ffiEf-J*.~~ft~~t~~1f1~~ft~~~~ *$.Mo fiE~.A~IXXliJili. x~i~~t~~si~_tnt:efiEEf-J~*· IXXlm ~~re~m~~fiEEt-JIXXliJili,!~~~t~•Et-Jfi•oia~~~*Et-J~fi~ •~Et-JM~.~-~~oo~~•w~•~. !~~·fj~.~-~~ ~**~~0
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  101. 101. ~~k,~ftA~~~~~~o~~~~~~~~~~~:~~~ ~~~~~.~-~-~~7--I~~m~o~*~~~P~~ 1b,~il}ie~JJil'i&ff)l:(fjA'L'!FJI i1=~~E~,I]8o sl~fi!fftfl)g~fit 7.m~~-~-~~m~.~-*M~~~--,~~~-~­ ~~"~o~~~-~aA,-fiR~~ ~~o 1988 27. 1 24.8 16.6 1989 44.6 18 31.7 1990 «1. 7 -16. 1 -3. 1 1991 70.6 45.6 30..5 1992 32.4 11.4 7.6 1993 17.2 15.9 10. 1 1994 22 -4.5 1.3 1995 34 29. 1 37. 6 1996 17.3 14.9 23 1997 40.2 16.8 33.4 1998 25.5 -2 28.6 1999 53 36. 1 21 2000 7.9 -16.8 -9. 1 2001 69.6 11.5 -11.9 2002 -4 -24.2 -22. 1 2003 79.9 68.8 28.7 2004 19.3 17.8 10.9 ~~rnltfl$ 30.8% 12.3% 12.4% M*ll: Joel Greenblatt, 'I7u! Uule Book That Beau The Market, John Wiley & Sons. f r r I ) 1: I I ~ r I I I
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