Decision Making Lecture

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  • Decision Making Lecture

    1. 1. Conformity [Asch, 1951, 1955, 1956] <ul><li>Is the test line equal in length to A, B, or C? </li></ul><ul><li>Small (3 of 4) majorities are sufficient to elicit substantial conformity with a wrong result </li></ul><ul><li>Any opposition can have a major effect; even a single dissenting individual can nullify the effect! </li></ul>
    2. 2. Asch Results: The Pressure to Conform 6% With 6 persons who say “A” and 1 person who says “B” 33% With 3 persons who say “A” 13% With 2 persons who say “A” 3% With 1 person who says “A” 1% Subject is alone Error rate Condition
    3. 3. Decision Making Dr. Joe O’Mahoney 2007 07906133649
    4. 4. Learning objectives <ul><li>To critique rational approaches of decision making </li></ul><ul><li>To understand the benefits and drawbacks of group decision making </li></ul><ul><li>To understand and apply the concept of groupthink </li></ul><ul><li>To learn some examples of decision-making </li></ul>07906133649
    5. 5. ‘ Rational’ Decision Making <ul><li>Traditional Types </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Forcefield analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pareto diagam </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost / Benefit diagram </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rational </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Objective </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Omniscient </li></ul></ul>07906133649
    6. 6. Rational Decisions? <ul><li>Juries give more extreme punishments than individuals </li></ul><ul><li>75% people will kill others when told to do so by an authority figure </li></ul><ul><li>You are ten times more likely to report an incident if you’re alone </li></ul><ul><li>You are 30 times more likely to give an (incorrect) answer if your peers do </li></ul><ul><li>Enron, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bay of Pigs, Iraq….. </li></ul>07906133649
    7. 7. Logical Constraints <ul><li>Epistemology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Can’t predict the (social) future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can’t prove Cause and Effect </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Luck? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Decision based on </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Organisation benefit? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stakeholder benefit? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Individual benefit? </li></ul></ul>07906133649
    8. 8. Psychological Constraints <ul><li>Conformity Bias (Kelman, 1958) </li></ul><ul><li>Risky Shift e.g. surgery (Stoner, 1961) </li></ul><ul><li>Polarisation e.g. French vs. Americans (Moscovici, 1969) </li></ul><ul><li>Social Loafing e.g. Tug-of-war (Ingham, 1974; Latane, 1974) </li></ul>07906133649
    9. 9. Social Constraints <ul><li>Cultural Norms </li></ul><ul><li>Socialisation </li></ul><ul><li>Obedience to Authority </li></ul>07906133649
    10. 10. Group Think (Janis, 1972) <ul><li>Disasters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pearl Harbour, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bay of Pigs, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Watergate, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenger </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Commonalities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Under pressure to make decisions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Isolation of group from outside </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High stress from external threats </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Feeling of invulnerability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social pressure to conform </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stereotyping of dissenters </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Today </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Iraq? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>De Mendez shooting? </li></ul></ul>07906133649
    11. 11. Group Decision Making <ul><li>Advantages: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple views and types of expertise </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social facilitation due to directed open discussion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Brainstorming might lead to creative solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Disadvantages: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Often fails to equal the best individual solution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Polarization effect (e.g., “risky shift” phenomenon) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social loafing (pool, elevator experiments) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In general: No optimal decision rule exists for more than 2 options </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Importance of HOW process is managed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Facilitators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Turns in speaking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pros and cons </li></ul></ul>07906133649

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