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Bednets And Bureaucrats


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The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol Hill.

Presented to Southern Model UN Conference in November 2010.

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
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Bednets And Bureaucrats

  1. 1. The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol HillJoe IndvikICF Internationaljoe.indvik@gmail.comBednets and Bureaucrats1
  2. 2. 2Global Malaria Incidence
  3. 3. 3Malariais a threat to half of the global population, mostly developing preventable and treatable if you have the resources.Climate Changeis spread by…Mosquitosbreed in hot, wet locations.increase malaria incidence as their population grows.will be bolstered by...
  4. 4. The Infection ProcessHumanInfectionBiteSporogonyBite4
  5. 5. 5TemperatureMalariaTransmissionTemperature and MalariaFaster metabolismShorter larvae stageShorter incubation More mosquitodeaths
  6. 6. 6Malaria can hit vulnerable communities hard…Vendaland, South Africa
  7. 7. 7…but is preventable with simple technologies like bednets.
  8. 8. 8The MalariaTriangleLow-IncomeCommunitiesMalariaIncidenceClimateChange
  9. 9. 9Low-IncomeCommunitiesMalariaIncidenceClimateChangeTend to live inregions that will behardest-hit by…Increases theprevalence of…Is dangerousprimarily in…
  10. 10. 10Malaria is one example of damagescaused by climate change.Malaria is preventable but already killshundreds of thousands of people per year.Emissions from the developed world hitthe developing world hardest.The prevention of climate changeis equally complex.
  11. 11. How?How much?Is it worth it?Why haven’t we done it?Reducing EmissionsThe four big questions:11
  12. 12. 12How?
  13. 13. Quantity of fossil fuels producedPriceThe Economics of Climate ChangeExternal CostsPrivate CostDemand13
  14. 14. Quantity of fossil fuels producedPriceThe Economics of Climate ChangeExternal CostsPrivate CostDemandPublic Cost14ActualOptimalPutting a price on carbon alignsthe private cost of climatechange with the costs to society.
  15. 15. 15How much?
  16. 16. Climate Damage Pathways16CarbonEmissionsMore SolarEnergyTrappedGlobalWarmingBiologicalDisruptionGeographicalDisruptionEconomicDisruptionPoliticalUpheavalSocialConflictDemographicChangeHealthImpactsNet CostEconomicActivityEffect onAtmosphereEffect onEarth SystemsEffect onSocial SystemsThe relationship between carbon emissions and net social costThe relationship is complicated! This makes it hard to determine the best carbon price.It is made even more complex by…
  17. 17. Feedback LoopsPermafrost MeltingWarmingMorePermafrostMeltsOrganicMatterDecomposesMethaneReleased17
  18. 18. 18Is it worth it?
  19. 19. 19The Economics of Climate ChangeThe Damage FunctionAtmospheric CO2Damage19If we could perfectly predictclimate change, the solutionwould be simple.
  20. 20. 20The Economics of Climate ChangeThe Damage FunctionAtmospheric CO2Damage20?But there is a range of uncertaintyaround potential damagesAnd a chance of low-probability, high-impactevents resulting from feedback loopsi.e. the end of civilization as we know it
  21. 21. 21Why haven’twe done it?
  22. 22. Why haven’t we done it?NIMBY“Not in my back yard”NIMTO“Not in my termof office”Tragedy of the CommonsConcentratedpain, diffusepleasureUncertainty22
  23. 23. How?Put a price on carbonHow much?Substantially  Under 450 ppmIs it worth it?The better question is: Can we risk it?Why haven’t we done it?Human NatureReducing EmissionsMy answers to the big questions:23
  24. 24. Bednets and Bureaucrats24
  25. 25. 25For the first time in historyBoth the actions of bureaucrats on the otherside of the world and the availability of simpletechnologies like bednets will dictate the well-being of half the world’s population.Policy, politics, wealth, and health interact onthe global stage like never before.Can we find a solution?