Rubinson Partners, Inc.Submission to the “Wharton Futureof Advertising” programAdvertising 2020:What forces shape the future of advertising?What could advertising look like?What will it take to get there?Joel Rubinson, Presidentjoel@rubinsonpartners.comBlog.joelrubinson.netTwitter: @joelrubinsonAlso on LinkedIn and SlideshareIdeas herein are property of Rubinson Partners and cannot be used without permission. email@example.com
Let’s look at forces already emerging that areshaping the future of advertising… “The future is already here — its just not very evenly distributed.” William Gibson, Science Fiction writer and futurist
All media and advertising, including TV, are becomingdigital, interactive, social and connected across devices
TV remains the primary media behavior People’s TV viewing is stable, averaging over five hours per day, more than twice the time spent on any other media behavior No other medium matches (or will match) TV for reach and achieving marketing scale However, the nature of the experience is changing, becoming social and interactive (via second screen behavior) For this reason, TV is the next battleground for the technology leaders, Google, Apple, Microsoft. I expect Facebook to enter this battleground in a social way.
Paid advertising is not dying…it isgrowing…and eventually gets into all media
Brands are buildingtheir ownaudiences...makingthem alwaysaccessible Starbucks benefits from over 100 MM monthly “touches” per month from Facebook, Twitter, website visits, app use, and searches Apps bring messages right to point of purchase Creates customer marketing possibilities
Mobile life is the coming sea change, bringing together consumer and shopper marketing Smart phones account for more than half of mobile phones Tablet ownership is exploding, mostly cannibalizing laptop use Time spent accessing the internet via mobile devices will surpass computers We take our smart phones to bed, to the TV room, and to the store while we shop We are starting to pay for things using our phone, often from within branded apps like Starbucks. Brand communication and transactions converging… Smart phones literally and figuratively are with us across the full path to purchase
Ideas can be shared socially, and spread like wildfire Coupons and free sample offers spread like wildfire via mommy bloggers and Twitter Commercials can get tens of millions of views on Youtube Brands can be praised or pounded in social media and you need to be increasingly part of the conversation.
The mix of art and science is shifting in advertising In the mad men era, there were only small lifts to be gained by finetuning demo-based ad placement. The TV creative that caught lightening in a bottle was the thing. The majority of digital advertising placement will be affected by behavioral data and predictive modeling algorithms, much of it as part of search and real time bidding systems Advertising has become a naturally occurring experiment that can be optimized in near real time Profiles are being connected across online, mobile, and offline behaviors via connectors like Facebook log-in or program sign-up (like Starbucks). Facebook is now connected to frequent shopper data for improved targeting and ROI assessment capabilities The lift in advertising ROI from Math men is significant and repeatable
Retail is becoming digitalized Shoppers are bringing their smartphones to retail, showrooming (buying online while standing in a store) and reverse showrooming (doing all research online but buying in-store) Stores will all have Wi-Fi (gated by shopper log-in). Mobile devices and wearable Wi-Fi like Google Glasses will have shopping capabilities that become a portal to purchase across all three types of retail environments, online, offline and Virtual store in Australia: scan virtual virtual. images of products you want to buy, pay Advertising will connect to such with mobile phone, order is delivered or shopping apps. assembled for pickup
What could Advertisinglook like in 2020?...whatwill be different?
The Transformation of marketingTraditional Marketing (past) Advertising builds awareness, meaning and meaning which hopefully translates into purchase intention and shopper actionDigital and Social Marketing (current) Users can now share ideas, “join” with brands they feel a meaning connection connection to (e.g. by liking the brand on Facebook), giving marketers a 2-way communication and marketingPath to Purchase Marketing (future) channel People will be able to do things Shopper with advertising…act on meaning connection impact curiosity, connect with the brand, bring offers to point of purchase via apps.
Connecting advertising in 2020 to path to purchase1. Shopping will become fully digitized, be it online, offline or virtual. Mobile devices will have shopping capabilities that become a portal to purchase across all three types of retail environments. Advertising will connect to such shopping apps.2. Advertising will be primarily placed based on modeling of behavior rather than demographics, and integrated with path to purchase activities. Facebook advertising can now be targeted using frequent shopper data Some TV households viewing behavior are now integrated with frequent shopper data Mobile device shopping apps and digital wallets are emerging3. Marketers will build their own brand audiences by being social and offering compelling content at their fully mobile-optimized owned media. Marketers will extend their connections into the shopping process via apps. Get users to sign up so you can practice 1-1 marketing and for creating single source connections across devices and from online to offline.4. The creative challenge is changing. All advertising will have interactive and social aspects, and be fully mobile optimized so messages and offers can be brought to the point of purchase. For example, you will be able to capture a TV commercial via your mobile app and see friends who like the product.5. Make ideas, content, and offers sharable and find the influencers. For example, the spread of free sample offers by P&G via Twitter and mommy bloggers is amazing.6. Create visual, touch, and voice marketing. We touch, pinch, pause, and speak to our smartphones. Could we do the same with advertising and packaging?7. Advertising and insights activities will merge via common data streams into a commitment to real time campaign management.
How can marketers prepare for advertising in 20201. Understand path to purchase. Create a synthesized view of the consumer and the shopper and understand how people make purchase decisions and what the influencers are along the way.2. Create digital (including social, mobile) centers of excellence within your organization with strong technical knowledge. This is too important to abdicate to suppliers and agencies.3. Master mobile. Understand the ability of mobile to impact the full path to purchase and crack the code of how to connect clickstream data across smart phones, tablets, and computers.4. Commit to real time campaign management. Build a digital data, analytics, and ad serving rules infrastructure that supports this.5. Redefine brand tracking, using the same digital and social data streams for insights that you use for advertising targeting so that your insights are immediately actionable and to reflect a picture of what brand success looks like in a digital, social, and mobile age.6. Understand customer relationship marketing. Marketers who previously only had anonymous relationships with consumers can now create connections via social and owned media that leverage 1-1 marketing.7. Get to know the influencers. In every vertical, there are certain bloggers who are very influential and needed for ideas to spread socially.8. Creating ROI assessment tools that capture paid, owned, earned media interactions. Prove what works from experiments, modeling, and attribution analysis. Evidence trumps narrative.
How brand advertising might affect George Jetson’s shopping trip While George gets gas, he sees an Having entered his favorite stores’ ad for an interesting product. He frequent shopper numbers, he can George wakes up, activating smart images it with his phone to add it to image any interesting product and phone controller. Start coffee pot the list. He hears an interesting ad on have it added to his shopping or wish the radio and tells his car, “add list product” George arrives at the store with his George’s smart countertop weighs smartphone and Google glasses. As products and reminds him via a daily Logs into TV with his Facebook profile he parks and as he e-mail he is running low on Chobani which automatically turns on viewing shops, suggestions and offers appear so it gets added to his favorite store preferences and suggestions. Sees and he says “add” to some. The shopping list. Because George has personalized advertising glasses are connected to his list and the Chobani app, he gets a discount store layout helping him navigate and offer. George decides to go shopping. find products. He sees an interesting product on the George has opted into Google’s “ads shelf, and finds out more interactively. you want”. He sees ads that are He scans UPCs as they go into his relevant to his shopping trip, searches As commercials run, he sees friends cart by looking at them. He checks to find out more, and gets rewards for who like each brand and recipe being out with his mobile pay. Inventory in his opt-in, as he adds them to his list. advertised. smart countertop is updated. His George’s shopping apps check prices Facebook profile is updated and his and store inventory to confirm that the friends see what he likes as they products are in stock. watch TV.Ideas herein are property of Rubinson Partners and cannot be used without permission. firstname.lastname@example.org
About Rubinson Partners, Inc. Joel Rubinson is President of Rubinson Partners, Inc. marketing and research consulting for a brave new world and a member of the faculty of NYU Stern School of Business where he teaches social media strategy. Joel is the former Chief Research Officer at the ARF. Started in 2010, Rubinson Partners, Inc. (RPI) is a marketing and research consultancy that has helped equip marketers, research, firms, and digital marketing companies for success in a digital age. Selected assignments: For a large CPG marketer, evaluate measurement gaps regarding digital data and create a roadmap For Unilever, designed one of the most comprehensive shopper insights digital sensing and social media listening platforms ever created For AOL and BBDO, consulted on “7 Shades of Mobile” to understand smart phone owners’ usage and motivations into a new way of defining what we called “behavior markets”. Working with MSA, a leading analytics firm, created a next generation approach to marketing mix modeling that is specifically geared towards improved estimation of digital and social media impact Conducted numerous workshops on shopper and digital For ShareThis, led one of the largest analyses of social media sharing behavior ever conducted, In partnership with InsightsNow, Inc. RPI created a next generation system for innovation For a major marketer, helping to shape a new approach to digital media measurement Conducted white paper analyses for leading suppliers Contact info: email@example.com Blog.joelrubinson.net