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Surfing the Tsunami: Surviving the Cascading Changes Facing Manufacturers <ul><li>Dr. Joel Orr </li></ul><ul><li>Cyon Research Corporation </li></ul>

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Christmas 2004

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Technology chaos <ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><li>Miniaturization </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Thermos bottle </li></ul>$Prices nanotechnology Singularity CHEAP POWER Genetic programming

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What makes a tsunami hard to deal with? <ul><li>No warning </li></ul><ul><li>More of the same - but a lot more </li></ul><ul><li>No idea how much more </li></ul><ul><li>No idea of how many waves </li></ul>

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What to do <ul><li>Raise the paradigmatic bar and live in a second-derivative world </li></ul><ul><li>Examine your organizational structure </li></ul><ul><li>The next best thing to the impossible task of predicting the future </li></ul>

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What’s your paradigm? <ul><li>Change is gradual? </li></ul><ul><li>Demand is cyclical? </li></ul><ul><li>The second mouse gets the cheese? </li></ul><ul><li>… yours? </li></ul>

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The second derivative <ul><li>Distance </li></ul><ul><li>Velocity </li></ul><ul><li>Acceleration </li></ul>

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The second derivative in business <ul><li>Work on your business, not just in it. Michael Gerber </li></ul><ul><li>Find new questions </li></ul><ul><li>Listen to customers - but not too much (read Christensen) </li></ul>

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Structure is destiny <ul><li>Pyramids are a place where great things are buried </li></ul><ul><li>The purpose of a system is what it does </li></ul><ul><li>Out of control </li></ul><ul><li>The Dandelion Paradox </li></ul>

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Why did the brontosaurus die?

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The Dandelion Paradox

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Simulation and the essence of chaos <ul><li>Less abstraction; simulation is the end of CAD </li></ul><ul><li>No closed-form solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Cheaper to crash a simulator </li></ul><ul><li>Chaos: God’s way of keeping engineers humble </li></ul>

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Knowing the future <ul><li>Simulation and the essence of chaos </li></ul><ul><li>“The Black Swan” and predictive fallacies </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario planning </li></ul>

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Taleb’s Triplet of Opacity <ul><li>The illusion of understanding </li></ul><ul><li>Retrospective distortion </li></ul><ul><li>Overvaluing facts and authorities </li></ul>from “The Black Swan”

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Predictive fallacies from “The Black Swan” <ul><li>The Narrative Fallacy </li></ul><ul><li>The Ludic Fallacy </li></ul><ul><li>The cemetery </li></ul>

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Scenario planning <ul><li>Where it came from </li></ul><ul><li>What it is </li></ul><ul><li>More information: “The Art of the Long View,” Schwartz </li></ul>

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Tech snapshot <ul><li>Computers: Moore’s Law and up </li></ul><ul><li>Telecom: Schmidt’s Law </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation: Joy’s Law </li></ul><ul><li>Nanotech </li></ul><ul><li>Genetic Programming </li></ul><ul><li>The Singularity? </li></ul>

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So? <ul><li>Keep one eye on the ball - and the other on the stadium </li></ul><ul><li>Continuously consider structure; revise accordingly </li></ul><ul><li>Think “scenario planning” </li></ul>

19.
Thanks! <ul><li>References: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Structure is Destiny” - http://www.lulu.com/conte nt/49992 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ The Black Swan,” “The Art of the Long View,” “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” “The Innovator’s Solution,” “The E-Myth Revisited” - Amazon.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ The End of CAD” - http://joelorr.squarespace.com/the-end-of-cad/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Me: www.joelorr.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cyon Research: www.cyonresearch.com </li></ul></ul>