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Climate Change in Portugal: state of the art

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Comunicação apresentada no «Climate Change and Cities Symposium», na qualidade de representante Português no projecto de investigação «Suburban neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate (SNACC)» - 26 a 30 de Abril de 2010, UWE Conference and Exhibition Centre, Frenchay, Bristol, Reino Unido.

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Climate Change in Portugal: state of the art

  1. 1. Climate change in Portugal: Port galState of the artJoaquim FloresClimate change and cities symposiumSuburban i hb h d d t ti fS b b neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate h i li t(SNACC)27th April 2010 - UWE Conference and Exhibition CentreFrenchay, Bristol
  2. 2. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Objective – Overview of the Portuguese situation in relation to C ate C a ge Climate Change: • Mitigation • Adaptation
  3. 3. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Structure – Portuguese portrait – General policy – Concrete actions
  4. 4. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it
  5. 5. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it
  6. 6. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it
  7. 7. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Large sea jurisdiction / two Atlantic archipelagos Source: PNPOT, 2007
  8. 8. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Source: PNPOT, 2007
  9. 9. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL: a portrait Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008
  10. 10. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL: a portrait High numbers of sunlight hours per year Source: Meteo Institute
  11. 11. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Low GNP Source: PNPOT, 2007
  12. 12. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPopulation ageing Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008
  13. 13. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Population ageing Source: PNPOT, 2007
  14. 14. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it High density in the coast Source: PNPOT, 2007
  15. 15. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it High density in the coast – energy consumption Source: PNPOT, 2007
  16. 16. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Land use Source: PNPOT, 2007
  17. 17. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Main risks Source: PNPOT, 2007
  18. 18. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Spatial model Source: PNPOT, 2007
  19. 19. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresPORTUGAL:PORTUGAL a portrait t it Public expense with environment: waste e water management
  20. 20. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores Diogo Homem, 1563
  21. 21. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Oporto-1945
  22. 22. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Lisbon-1966
  23. 23. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Emissions
  24. 24. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) per Capita kg CO2 equivalent12 00010 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 EU27 0 PT 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: European Communities, 2010
  25. 25. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores CO2 Emissions per Capita10000 8000 6000 4000 CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - Portugal 2000 0 CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - EU27 Average Source: European Communities, 2010
  26. 26. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresGreenhouse Gases:- Emissions increased 37% - 1990-2003- CO2 represents 80% of Greenhouse Gases in Portugal - From those 50% are from fuel to electricity and cars -B t Between 1990-2003 CO2 f 1990 2003 from cars i increase 95% Source: PNPOT, 2007
  27. 27. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Madeira Island - 20-02-2010 • 42 death • 120 hounded • 200 lost home
  28. 28. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Portugal - 21-04-2010 • Severe weather conditions in localized points • Thousands of Euros of prejudice
  29. 29. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Drought - 2005 • Precipitation 40% above average of last 60 years • 90% of the country affected for several months • Water s ppl supply • Agriculture • Biodiversity
  30. 30. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Drought - 2005 • Nasa satellite imagery
  31. 31. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Forest fires - 2005 300.000 ha 32-553 fires
  32. 32. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Forest fires - 2005
  33. 33. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores • Heat wave – 2003• High temperatures• Low air humidity• 14 days• Interior• Fires (425.000ha)• Water supply failure Source: IGP (2003)
  34. 34. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Heat wave – 2003 Source: Portugal - Ministry of Health (2004)
  35. 35. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Heat wave – 1991 Source: SIAM (2004)
  36. 36. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Lisbon – EXPO98• Environmental conscientiousness turning point• Environmental practice• Environmental academic research• Environmental policy
  37. 37. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresCIAM – Climate Change Impacts Adaptation andMitigation Research Grouphttp://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/CCIAM/
  38. 38. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM and SIAM II – Scenarios, Impacts, and Ad d Adaptation M i Measures• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/
  39. 39. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM• Started in the summer of 1999, with funding from the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation ( (Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, FCG). Since ç , ) January of 2000 it was also support by Portuguese Government• Ended in October 2001 with the publication of the final report in book form
  40. 40. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM II• Started in January 2002, focusing in case studies.• Ended in 2006 with the publication of the final fi l report i b k f t in book form
  41. 41. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• European funding project: CLIMAAT and CLIMAAT II (Interreg)• Cli Climat i the A l i I l d in h Atlantic Islands• http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/
  42. 42. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores • SIAMSignificant increase in meantemperatures until the end ofthe XXI
  43. 43. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM• Significant increase in mean temperatures until the end of the XXI• Summer maximum temperature: – Portugal mainland +3ºC in coast and +7ºC in the interior – Madeira +3ºC – Azores +2ºC
  44. 44. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores • SIAM• Global warming
  45. 45. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM• Si ifi Significant increase i mean ti in temperatures until the end of the XXI• In General: – Increase in the intensity and frequency of heat waves – Increase in the number of hot days (temp. above 35ºC) – Increase in the number of Tropical nights (temp. (temp above 20ºC) 20 C) – Decrease in the number of cold days (temp. under 0ºC)
  46. 46. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores • SIAM• Red ction in Reduction rain
  47. 47. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM• Reduction f th R d ti of the rainy season, mainly i S i i i l in Spring and Autumn (different scenarios forecast a reduction in annual rainfall in the continent by 20-40% of current levels) ).• A significant reduction ( g (about 30%) in annual ) precipitation is also projected for Madeira during this period.• In the Azores, changes are predicted in the annual rainfall cycle but without substantial impact on total precipitation.
  48. 48. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM• The main impacts include:• Probable changes in flood and drought regimes, as well as changes in the quality and g , g q y availability of water;• Significant increase in the risk of fire hazards; Si ifi ti i th i k f fi h d• Considerable increase in air pollution levels and ecological disturbances, which may lead to significant changes in the dynamics of infectious disease transmission as well as regional variations in agricultural productivity;
  49. 49. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM• The main impacts include:• Increase of the erosion processes and consequently of the flooded areas; q y ;• Reduction in the yield of irrigated crops.
  50. 50. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• SIAM
  51. 51. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Portuguese funding project: PORTCOAST (2004-2007)• Present and future Portuguese coastal climate and its impacts on the biological li t d it i t th bi l i l communities• http://www.io.fc.ul.pt/zoologia/projectos/portcoast/
  52. 52. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores • Coastal erosion • 67% of the Portuguese coast is in erosion risk and lost of land in the next decades due to climate change.Source: Portcoast, 2008
  53. 53. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores • Coastal erosion • Cascais • Red ction in more than 50 % of Reduction beach coast until the end of XXI. • In the most pessimit cenarios, some beaches can reduce their sand in 80%.Source: SPACCC, 2010
  54. 54. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• CLIMATE CHANGE & TOURISM IN PORTUGAL: POTENTIAL IMPACTS & ADAPTATION MEASURES ( (CLITOP) - 2007 )• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/clitop/
  55. 55. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores • Conclusions • Scenarios – Increase in temperature – Reduction of rainfall • Impacts – Droughts – Water – Fire risk – Coastal erosionSource: SIAM, SIAMII, CLIMAAT, PORTCOAST
  56. 56. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• National Commission for Climate Change (1998)• Comissão C i ã para as Alt Alterações Cli áti õ Climáticas• I t Intersectorial Commission i t i lC i i in Government• Elaboration of Climate Change National Plans and Policies
  57. 57. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• National Program for Climate Change (2004 and 2006)• Programa Nacional para as Alt P N i l Alterações õ Climáticas• http://www.apambiente.pt/politicasambiente/Alter acoesClimaticas/PNAC/Paginas/default.aspx
  58. 58. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• National Program for Climate Change (2006)• Programa Nacional para as Alt P N i l Alterações õ Climáticas• Monitoring PNAC (execution indicators) http://www.cumprirquioto.pt/Home.action• Quioto Target: less than 27% CFC emissions in relation to 1990 (2008-2012) ( )• 2010 – 5% from target (17,62 Mt CO2e)
  59. 59. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresNational Program for Climate Change (2006)Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticas g
  60. 60. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• National Program for Climate Change (2006)• Programa Nacional para as Alt P N i l Alterações õ Climáticas• Energy• Transportation• Emissions• Agriculture• Florest• Waste
  61. 61. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Portuguese Carbon Fund (2006)• Fundo Português de Carbono• Greenhouse gases emissions (Emission Trading System)• Managing the emissions trade in Portugal• European Emission Trading System (EU ETS
  62. 62. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• CO2 Emissions National Plan (2008)• Plano Nacional de Atribuição de Licenças de Emissão de CO2• http://www.apambiente.pt/Instrumentos/CELE/PN p p p ALE/PNALE_II/Paginas/default.aspx• Licensing of major emissions producers Li i f j i i d
  63. 63. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Climate Change Adaptation National Strategy (2010)• Estratégia N i E t té i Nacional d Ad t ã à Alt l de Adaptação às Alterações õ Climáticas (ENAAC)• Approved in April 2010• Scenarios and climat projections for the pe od 080 00, o a a d o uga period 2080-2100, for mainland Portugal and Islands, Madeira and Azores
  64. 64. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Climate Change Adaptation National Strategy• The strategy of the strategy: 4 objectives: – I f Information and K ti d Knowledge ( l d (necessity t it to develop solid cientific and thecnical base) – Reduce the vulnerability and increase the answer capacity – Involvement of all sectors – International cooperation
  65. 65. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores2008-2009Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change inSintra MunicipalityStarted in 2008 and ending in 2009 The objective of thisproject is to study climate change impacts and adaptationmeasures on specific sectors, namely, water resources,coastal zones, human health, energy, tourism, forests andbiodiversity in the Sintra area.From the CIAM Research Group phttp://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/siam-sintra/home.php
  66. 66. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores2009-2010Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change inCascais MunicipalityThe objective of this project is to study climate changeimpacts and adaptation measures on specific sectors,namely, water resources, coastal zones, human health,energy, tourism, forests, biodiversity and agriculture in theCascais Municipality.The impact assessment will allow to strategically planadaptation as a response to climate change in Cascais.From the CCIAM Research Grouphttp://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/PECAC/
  67. 67. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan(PNAEE 2015)
  68. 68. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores Import Dependency 2007 ( in % ) All fuels Solid fuels Oil Gas EU27 53,1 41,2 82,6 60,3 PT 82,0 100 98,9 98,7Source: European Commission 2010
  69. 69. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan(PNAEE 2015)Programs and measures to achieve energy efficiency inseveral sectors in relation to final energy consumption- Transport- Residential ans services- Industry y- State- Behaviour- taxes- Funding
  70. 70. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• National Electricity Mobility Plan (2008)• 21 Municipalities
  71. 71. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Target: 1.350 charging points in em 2011• The national pilot network will be compatible with all electric vehicules• Slow charging points (six to eight hours from wind energy produced at night)• F t charging points (20 t 30 minutes i Fast h i i t to i t in the day)
  72. 72. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Charging points:• private garages• public access points located at public car parks• car parks at shopping centers• hotels, airports, gas stations and other places in those municipalities which have adhered to the pilot scheme. scheme
  73. 73. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• A pre-paid card charg.e of the mobi.e network shall provide access to the supply points, points discounting the charging value• This amount includes the electricity consumed and payment for the charging se ce service.
  74. 74. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Electric Mobility Local Plan (Municipalities)• Porto• 168 slow charching points in the city• Incentive measures to promote electric mobility in the city
  75. 75. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• National Incentive to dismantle old vehicles• Will be reserved to electric vehicles and high environmental performance vehicles with CO2 emissions lower than 100 g/km
  76. 76. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresLisbon – Expo98Trigeneration system – Power-Heating-Cooling15Km of network130 buildings connected (housing, hotels, offices,pavillions, major services)MESAP – Modular Energy System Analysis and Planning(University of Stuttgart)
  77. 77. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresLisbon – Expo98Source: Climaespaço 2006
  78. 78. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresLisbon – Expo98Source: Climaespaço 2006
  79. 79. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresLisbon – Expo98Source: Climaespaço 2007
  80. 80. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresOporto – 2010Thermal Energy Urban NetworkRUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)Oporto Historical Centre (Downtown)Thermal system – Heating-CoolingAnchor Buildings/services
  81. 81. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresOporto – 2010Thermal Energy Urban NetworkRUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)
  82. 82. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresOporto – 2010Thermal Energy Urban NetworkRUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)
  83. 83. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresOporto – 2006RE-STARTRE START Project (European Funding)Pilot ProjectXIX Building Natural lighting Natural ventilation Support systems
  84. 84. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Smart grids - the future of electric energy distribution di t ib ti• C Communication i th di t ib iti system i ti in the distribuition t• C Consumption metering ( hi h 1 ) i i (which 15m)• Energy lost control
  85. 85. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• InovCity• Energy Box• Homes• Industry and services• Public lighting
  86. 86. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Smart grid Pilot Project• Public/Private partnership• Instalation of 31 000 energy boxes 31.000• Comunication with 300 electricity network points in the city• Will allow «savings on energy consumption and distribution in Portugal»
  87. 87. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores• Public lighting efficiency• 4 measures:• Introdution of LED technology – redution in 40% to 50% in electricity consumption• Intensity regulation according to natural light conditions• Reducing light intensity in the dead hours (2:00- 5:00 am) keeping the security levels• Dynamic management of lighting – adaptation to traffic and human presence
  88. 88. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresSolar Central – Amareleja - Moura2008 – Photovoltaic Solar CentralSunny South of Portugal (temperature records in theSummer)- Capacity to produce 46,41 Megawatts allowing to preventthe emission of 89.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossilproduction- 2.520 Sun followers with 104 solar panels which- 250 hectares- The Central will produce 93 Gigawatts/hour per y , p g p year,enough to 30.000 households consumption- Is the second in the world - Olmedilla de Alarcon (Spain),with 60 Megawatts of production capacity and 85Gigawatts/hour per yea
  89. 89. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresAguçadoura wave farm – 2008-Location 5km off the Atlantic coastline of northern Portugal- Three P1-A Pelamis machines Capacity 2.25 MW (3 x750kW)-Status Proven installation of three units on fullycommissioned site i f i i d i infrastructure and successful export of d f l fpower into the local grid.-The multiple P l i units making up th A Th lti l Pelamis it ki the Aguçadoura dwave farm constitute both the world’s first, multi-unit, wavefarm and also the first commercial order for wave energyconverters.converters- 1st stage – 3 machines – capacity to produce 750kilowatts (kw) each allowing to average production of 7 each,Gigawatts/hour per year (Gwh).
  90. 90. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresParque Eólico do Alto Minho IWind Energy Park – 2008Major wind park in EuropeWindy North of PortugalCapacity to produce 240 Megawatts and will prevent theemission of 500.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossilproduction d iIs now producing electricity for 300.000 households (1,5%of Portuguese energy consumption) fP t ti )- 120 wind towers-The Central will produce 530 Gigawatts/hour per year- Portugal wind energy: - From 500 megawatts in 2005 to 5.000 in 2010
  91. 91. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresEU27 - 2007RenewablesSource: European Communities, 2010
  92. 92. EU27 - 2007 Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresRenewables3,14% of EU27 Source: European Communities, 2010
  93. 93. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption (%) - EU27 (2009) Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption (%) - EU2780 8070 7060 6050 2010 OBJECTIVE 50 2007 Total Share40 EU27 OBJECTIVE 4030 3020 2010 100 0 NL BE LU DK DE EE ES HU CY LV SK FI SE UK EU BG CZ IT AT EL LT MT PT PL RO FR IE SI 27 Source: European Communities, 2010
  94. 94. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresSources of EnergyRenewables – 31,8% Source: EDP, 2010
  95. 95. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim FloresThank You!Joaquim FloresJoaquim.flores@gmail.com

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