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Understanding
           emergent strategy




            The ISS Triangle, really
                                      ...
IS strategy --> Biz strategy

          Implementation
                        Biz strategy

                             ...
What do you do with it
             when you find it?




       Every single complex system is
           ‘intervention r...
Turning measurement into insight


 !Basic    concepts
   "Expansion cycles
   "Equilibrium cycles
   "Time


 !Archetypes...
Equilibrium cycle:
   Managing shower temperature
                   Water
                   temp.               Desired
...
Managing the temperature of two
  B’s desired
                 showers           A’s desired
  temperature                ...
Archetypes




                 Archetypes

    I want to grow         I want to solve
                               prob...
Grow: Limits to growth




         Grow: Limits to growth


If you don’t plan for limits, you’re planning for
           ...
Grow: Sucess to the successful




    Grow: Sucess to the successful


Rewarding good performance is often rewarding
    ...
Solve: Unintended consequences




Solve: Unintended consequences


    Quick solutions make problems worse


 Focus on po...
Solve: Shifting the burden




 Solve: Shifting the burden

Quick fixes reduce the ability to solve problems

 Identify qu...
Exercise

Word-of-mouth marketing strategy
Time is T45
Challenge: Use the model to define a
strategy to increase the numbe...
Complete model
Complete model
My assumptions
 New potential customers
 = Customers in other markets
  x Advertising sucess rate


 - Clients in other ma...
Increase the effectiveness of     Increase social contacts
          contacts




           Conclusion: Planning is...

O...
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IS Undergrads Class 7

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IS Undergrads Class 7

  1. 1. Understanding emergent strategy The ISS Triangle, really Biz strategy Org’l strategy IS strategy analysis Implementation Biz strategy Biz strategy Org’l strategy IS strategy Org’l strategy IS strategy
  2. 2. IS strategy --> Biz strategy Implementation Biz strategy simple measurements Surfacing secrets Org’l strategy IS strategy What should you be looking for? Emphasize learning Seek outliars Separate evaluation from information Forsake BSchool teachings: What do *you* need to know? Focus on high-quality Y’s, not enforced X’s
  3. 3. What do you do with it when you find it? Every single complex system is ‘intervention resistant’ The organization’s whirlpools You need to see the whole system to be able to plan and act effectively
  4. 4. Turning measurement into insight !Basic concepts "Expansion cycles "Equilibrium cycles "Time !Archetypes Expansion cycles: Money and interest Capital Interest rate R Accumulated interest Interest “The sky is the limit” vs. “This is going from bad to worse”
  5. 5. Equilibrium cycle: Managing shower temperature Water temp. Desired temperature B Faucet position Temperature difference “We’re going nowhere” Time’s arrow
  6. 6. Managing the temperature of two B’s desired showers A’s desired temperature temperature A’s water temperature B’s faucet position T Gap B B B A’s faucet position T Gap A B’s water temperature Two people in a shower
  7. 7. Archetypes Archetypes I want to grow I want to solve problems ! Limits to growth* ! Unintended ! Sucess to the successful* consequences* ! Shifting the burden* ! Eroding goals ! Accidental adversaries ! Growth and underinvestment ! Escalation
  8. 8. Grow: Limits to growth Grow: Limits to growth If you don’t plan for limits, you’re planning for failure Elimininate or reduce the limit Be aware of equilibrium while growing Question the need for growth
  9. 9. Grow: Sucess to the successful Grow: Sucess to the successful Rewarding good performance is often rewarding luck with initial conditions Evaluate success metrics Evaluate path towards success Help unsuccessful instead of withdrawing resources
  10. 10. Solve: Unintended consequences Solve: Unintended consequences Quick solutions make problems worse Focus on potential negative effects Look for a fundamental solution Avoid using the quick fix to gain time
  11. 11. Solve: Shifting the burden Solve: Shifting the burden Quick fixes reduce the ability to solve problems Identify quick fixes and fundamental solutions Focus on the fundamental solution Use the quick fix to gain time (last resort)
  12. 12. Exercise Word-of-mouth marketing strategy Time is T45 Challenge: Use the model to define a strategy to increase the number of customers Simplified model
  13. 13. Complete model
  14. 14. Complete model
  15. 15. My assumptions New potential customers = Customers in other markets x Advertising sucess rate - Clients in other markets: 1 million - Advertising success rate: 5% Potential and real clients Before After
  16. 16. Increase the effectiveness of Increase social contacts contacts Conclusion: Planning is... Objectives Context Objective Context Problem Decision Results Decisions Results

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