The Death of
Newspapers?




      Finding business models
            in a perfect storm
Who am I?
Long, slow death?
                                       UK National Newspaper Monthly Circulation
                       ...
Why?

• Cyclical

• Structural
Cyclical
Recession hits early and hard:

• More media firms have issued profit warnings in the
  last six months than sinc...
Structural
Demand is declining:

• Disruptive free-sheet business models.

• Lifestyle changes.

• New platforms diluting ...
Industry response?
• Offline model moved online.

• Product-focused, not demand-focused.

• Little innovation.

• Slow to ...
The result?
• Flooded market

• Web advertising devalued
  (About one-tenth of print advertising)

• Traditional print rev...
Users
                                                                                                      (‘000s)
      ...
The Stat Race: results
It can not continue


               “The current days
               of the internet will
                 soon be over."
But some got it right
But some got it right
Schibsted:
                              Aftonbladet Profit (EBITA)

                 300


                 250


       ...
Dating



                                     Dieting & Fitness
Used Cars                                  Club




     ...
Wall Street Journal

                                 Ten-year-old
                                 subscription
         ...
Where did it go wrong?




           Trough of
        disillusionment
Group Exercise
• Where did the industry go wrong?

• How can you use these lessons to avoid similar
  mistakes?

   – What...
Industry responses




– Metre-payment system

– The Exclusive “Club”
Industry responses



– Daily Charges




– Considering paid access to specialist
  content
Industry responses


– Tip jar




– E-Readers
References
http://delicious.com/joannageary/hyperisland
Thank You!




         joanna.geary@thetimes.co.uk
         linkedin.com/in/joannageary

             twitter.com/joannag...
The Death of Newspapers? Finding business models in a perfect storm.
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A presentation given to delegates on the Hyper Island Accidental Leaders Masterclass

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  • Very interesting in light of the proclaimed death of one of the pillar industries of democracy.
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The Death of Newspapers? Finding business models in a perfect storm.

  1. The Death of Newspapers? Finding business models in a perfect storm
  2. Who am I?
  3. Long, slow death? UK National Newspaper Monthly Circulation 2001 - 2008 4,000,000 3,500,000 The Sun 3,000,000 The Mirror Daily Star 2,500,000 No. copies sold Daily Record Daily Mail 2,000,000 The Express Daily Telegraph 1,500,000 The Times FT 1,000,000 The Guardian The Independent 500,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations
  4. Why? • Cyclical • Structural
  5. Cyclical Recession hits early and hard: • More media firms have issued profit warnings in the last six months than since the 2001 dot com crash. (Ernst & Young) • Over the 19 weeks to 9 May 2009, Johnston Press saw total advertising revenues down 34.4% year on year. • In May, Trinity Mirror said that group advertising revenue declined by 30% year on year
  6. Structural Demand is declining: • Disruptive free-sheet business models. • Lifestyle changes. • New platforms diluting market share. Newspaper organisations evolved to deliver on news print.
  7. Industry response? • Offline model moved online. • Product-focused, not demand-focused. • Little innovation. • Slow to react to change. • Online competition ignored. • Stalled with protectionist arguments.
  8. The result? • Flooded market • Web advertising devalued (About one-tenth of print advertising) • Traditional print revenues disrupted (Classifieds, business directories, dating, coupons) • Control of product distribution lost
  9. Users (‘000s) Unique 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 The Stat Race Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Telegraph MailOnline Times Online Guardian.co.uk Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations
  10. The Stat Race: results
  11. It can not continue “The current days of the internet will soon be over."
  12. But some got it right
  13. But some got it right
  14. Schibsted: Aftonbladet Profit (EBITA) 300 250 200 SEK (million) Online EBITA 150 Print EBITA 100 50 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year
  15. Dating Dieting & Fitness Used Cars Club Yellow & White Classifieds Directory Telephone Directory = 60+%
  16. Wall Street Journal Ten-year-old subscription service • Reputation for business news • Responsive pay wall
  17. Where did it go wrong? Trough of disillusionment
  18. Group Exercise • Where did the industry go wrong? • How can you use these lessons to avoid similar mistakes? – What cyclical and structural issues do you face? – Is there a strategy that could help you emerge from a cyclical downturn in a stronger position? – How might you lead that process?
  19. Industry responses – Metre-payment system – The Exclusive “Club”
  20. Industry responses – Daily Charges – Considering paid access to specialist content
  21. Industry responses – Tip jar – E-Readers
  22. References http://delicious.com/joannageary/hyperisland
  23. Thank You! joanna.geary@thetimes.co.uk linkedin.com/in/joannageary twitter.com/joannageary joannageary.com

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