Shifts in Mobile Demand Ahead of Holiday 2013

John Feland
John FelandData Whisperer and Design Thinker
Mobile Holiday RoundUp
Social Tracking of Smartphone Brand Conversations
1000000
900000
800000
700000
Apple Phones

600000

Blackberry Phones
500000

HTC Phones
LG Phones

400000

Motorola Phones
300000

Nokia Phones

Samsung Phones

200000
100000

0

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 2
Social Tracking of Smartphone Brand Conversations
90000
80000

70000
60000
Blackberry Phones

50000

HTC Phones

LG Phones

40000

Motorola Phones
30000

Nokia Phones
Samsung Phones

20000
10000

0

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 3
Normalized Smartphone Social Mentions
6
5
4
3

Apple Phones
Blackberry Phones

2

HTC Phones
LG Phones

1

Motorola Phones
Nokia Phones

0

Samsung Phones
-1
-2
-3
11/10/13

11/17/13

11/24/13

12/1/13

12/8/13

12/15/13

12/22/13

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 4
Smartphone Gifting Discussions in Social
160000
140000
120000
100000

Apple Phones
Blackberry Phones

80000

HTC Phones
LG Phones

60000

Motorola Phones
Nokia Phones

40000

Samsung Phones

20000
0

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 5
Smartphone Gifting Discussions in Social
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000

Blackberry Phones
HTC Phones

2500

LG Phones
2000

Motorola Phones
Nokia Phones

1500

Samsung Phones
1000
500
0

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 6
Normalized mentions of Gifting in Social
6
5

4
3

Apple Phones
Blackberry Phones

2

HTC Phones
LG Phones

1

Motorola Phones
Nokia Phones

0

Samsung Phones
-1
-2
-3
11/10/13

11/17/13

11/24/13

12/1/13

12/8/13

12/15/13

12/22/13

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 7
Retailer Social Mentions Over The Holiday Season
60000

50000

40000

Amazon
Apple Retail
AT&T

30000

Best Buy
Staples

20000

Target
Verizon
Walmart

10000

11/10/13
11/12/13
11/14/13
11/16/13
11/18/13
11/20/13
11/22/13
11/24/13
11/26/13
11/28/13
11/30/13
12/2/13
12/4/13
12/6/13
12/8/13
12/10/13
12/12/13
12/14/13
12/16/13
12/18/13
12/20/13
12/22/13
12/24/13

0

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 8
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

12/24/13

12/22/13

12/20/13

12/18/13

12/16/13

12/14/13

12/12/13

12/10/13

12/8/13

12/6/13

12/4/13

12/2/13

11/30/13

11/28/13

11/26/13

11/24/13

11/22/13

11/20/13

11/18/13

11/16/13

11/14/13

11/12/13

11/10/13

Normalized Retailer Mentions
7

6

5

4

3
Amazon

Apple Retail

2
AT&T

1
Best Buy

Staples

0
Target

-1
Verizon

Walmart

-2

-3

Page 9
Overall Demand Softened Just Before Holidays
1200
1000

Samsung

800

BlackBerry
Nokia

600

Motorola
LG

400

HTC
Apple

200
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 10
New Smartphone Customers Not As Delighted
Samsung

1
0.8

0.42

0.6
0.4
0.2
0
26

31

36

41

46

51

1

Apple

0.8
0.38

0.6
0.4

0.2
0
26

31

36

41

46

51

1

HTC

0.8
0.6
0.27

0.4
0.2
0
26

31

36

41

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

46

51

Page 11
New Smartphone Customers Not As Delighted
1

LG

0.8

0.6
0.4
0.48

0.2
0
26

31

36

41

46

51

1

Nokia

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.44

0.2
0
26

31

36

41

46

51

1

Motorola

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.09

0.2
0

BlackBerry

-0.2 26
1

31

36

41

46

51
0.64

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
26

31

36
41
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

46

51
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Shifts in Mobile Demand Ahead of Holiday 2013

  • 2. Social Tracking of Smartphone Brand Conversations 1000000 900000 800000 700000 Apple Phones 600000 Blackberry Phones 500000 HTC Phones LG Phones 400000 Motorola Phones 300000 Nokia Phones Samsung Phones 200000 100000 0 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 2
  • 3. Social Tracking of Smartphone Brand Conversations 90000 80000 70000 60000 Blackberry Phones 50000 HTC Phones LG Phones 40000 Motorola Phones 30000 Nokia Phones Samsung Phones 20000 10000 0 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 3
  • 4. Normalized Smartphone Social Mentions 6 5 4 3 Apple Phones Blackberry Phones 2 HTC Phones LG Phones 1 Motorola Phones Nokia Phones 0 Samsung Phones -1 -2 -3 11/10/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 12/1/13 12/8/13 12/15/13 12/22/13 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 4
  • 5. Smartphone Gifting Discussions in Social 160000 140000 120000 100000 Apple Phones Blackberry Phones 80000 HTC Phones LG Phones 60000 Motorola Phones Nokia Phones 40000 Samsung Phones 20000 0 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 5
  • 6. Smartphone Gifting Discussions in Social 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 Blackberry Phones HTC Phones 2500 LG Phones 2000 Motorola Phones Nokia Phones 1500 Samsung Phones 1000 500 0 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 6
  • 7. Normalized mentions of Gifting in Social 6 5 4 3 Apple Phones Blackberry Phones 2 HTC Phones LG Phones 1 Motorola Phones Nokia Phones 0 Samsung Phones -1 -2 -3 11/10/13 11/17/13 11/24/13 12/1/13 12/8/13 12/15/13 12/22/13 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 7
  • 8. Retailer Social Mentions Over The Holiday Season 60000 50000 40000 Amazon Apple Retail AT&T 30000 Best Buy Staples 20000 Target Verizon Walmart 10000 11/10/13 11/12/13 11/14/13 11/16/13 11/18/13 11/20/13 11/22/13 11/24/13 11/26/13 11/28/13 11/30/13 12/2/13 12/4/13 12/6/13 12/8/13 12/10/13 12/12/13 12/14/13 12/16/13 12/18/13 12/20/13 12/22/13 12/24/13 0 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 8
  • 9. © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 12/24/13 12/22/13 12/20/13 12/18/13 12/16/13 12/14/13 12/12/13 12/10/13 12/8/13 12/6/13 12/4/13 12/2/13 11/30/13 11/28/13 11/26/13 11/24/13 11/22/13 11/20/13 11/18/13 11/16/13 11/14/13 11/12/13 11/10/13 Normalized Retailer Mentions 7 6 5 4 3 Amazon Apple Retail 2 AT&T 1 Best Buy Staples 0 Target -1 Verizon Walmart -2 -3 Page 9
  • 10. Overall Demand Softened Just Before Holidays 1200 1000 Samsung 800 BlackBerry Nokia 600 Motorola LG 400 HTC Apple 200 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 10
  • 11. New Smartphone Customers Not As Delighted Samsung 1 0.8 0.42 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 26 31 36 41 46 51 1 Apple 0.8 0.38 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 26 31 36 41 46 51 1 HTC 0.8 0.6 0.27 0.4 0.2 0 26 31 36 41 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 46 51 Page 11
  • 12. New Smartphone Customers Not As Delighted 1 LG 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.48 0.2 0 26 31 36 41 46 51 1 Nokia 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.44 0.2 0 26 31 36 41 46 51 1 Motorola 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.09 0.2 0 BlackBerry -0.2 26 1 31 36 41 46 51 0.64 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 26 31 36 41 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 46 51 Page 12