building BRIDGES

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building BRIDGES

  1. 1. Looking  for   a  bridge   between   approaches  
  2. 2. Global  knowledge   A  bridge   for  what?   Local  knowledge  
  3. 3. Global  knowledge   Structured   InformaHon   HOW  IS  THE   CURRENT  BRIDGE?   Tacit   Knowledge   Local  knowledge  
  4. 4. Global  knowledge   Structured   InformaHon   Organized   knowledge   HOW  IS  THE   CURRENT  BRIDGE?   Tacit   Knowledge   Disintegrated   policies     Local  knowledge  
  5. 5. Global  knowledge   Structured   InformaHon   Organized   knowledge   Why  is  this   so?   Tacit   Knowledge   Disintegrated   policies     Local  knowledge  
  6. 6. Formalizing   Dynamics   DEEP   Formalizing   Associa1ons   SHALLOW   Policy   Modeling   •  System  of  Variables  (dependent  –  independent)   •  Linear  relaHon   •  Hierarchical  organizaHon   •  Homogeneity  assumpHons   •  Scare  of  Ecological  Fallacy   Mainstream  Policy  Science   Global  knowledge   Structured   InformaHon   Organized   knowledge   Why  is  this   so?   Tacit   Knowledge   Disintegrated   policies     Local  knowledge  
  7. 7. DEEP   Formalizing   Associa1ons   SHALLOW   Policy   Modeling   •  System  of  Variables  (dependent  –  independent)   •  Linear  relaHon   •  Hierarchical  organizaHon   •  Homogeneity  assumpHons   •  Scare  of  Ecological  Fallacy   Mainstream  Policy  Science   Global  knowledge   Structured   InformaHon   Organized   knowledge   Why  is  this   so?   Tacit   Knowledge   Disintegrated   policies     Local  knowledge   •  •  •  •  Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior   But…   Formalizing   Dynamics  
  8. 8. DEEP   Formalizing   Associa1ons   SHALLOW   Policy   Modeling   Can  we   reconcile   this?   •  System  of  Variables  (dependent  –  independent)   •  Linear  relaHon   •  Hierarchical  organizaHon   •  Homogeneity  assumpHons   •  Scare  of  Ecological  Fallacy   Mainstream  Policy  Science   Global  knowledge   Structured   InformaHon   Tacit   Knowledge   Organized   knowledge   Disintegrated   policies     Local  knowledge   •  •  •  •  Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior   But…   Formalizing   Dynamics  
  9. 9. Formalizing   Dynamics   DEEP   Policy   Modeling   Can  we   reconcile   this?   Global  knowledge   Organized   knowledge   Tacit   Knowledge   Local  knowledge   •  •  •  •  Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior  
  10. 10. Policy   Modeling   Global  knowledge   DEEP   A   computaHonal   bridge!   Formalizing   Dynamics   Path-­‐ dependence   Localized   Organized   knowledge   Rules   AGENT-­‐BASED   MODELING   Tacit   Knowledge   Learning  and   adapta,on   Local  knowledge   •  •  •  •  Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior  
  11. 11. BASIC  IDEA:   •  RaHonally-­‐ bounded   •  PercepHon   •  Knowledge   •  Response   We  program  agents.   Formalizing   Dynamics   Path-­‐ dependence   Localized   Rules   AGENT-­‐BASED   MODELING   Tacit   Knowledge   •  •  •  •  Organized   knowledge   Learning  and   adapta,on   Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior  
  12. 12. BASIC  IDEA:   Formalizing   Dynamics   Path-­‐ dependence   Localized   We  can  have  mulHple  agents   Rules   AGENT-­‐BASED   MODELING   Tacit   Knowledge   •  •  •  •  Organized   knowledge   Learning  and   adapta,on   Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior  
  13. 13. BASIC  IDEA:   MULTIPLE  LEVELS   Formalizing   Dynamics   Path-­‐ dependence   Localized   Organized   knowledge   Rules   AGENT-­‐BASED   MODELING   Tacit   Knowledge   Learning  and   adapta,on   We  can  have  mulHple  agents   MULTIPLE  INTERACTIONS   •  •  •  •  Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior  
  14. 14. BASIC  IDEA:   MULTIPLE  LEVELS   Formalizing   Dynamics   Path-­‐ dependence   Localized   TRAJECTORIES   AND  SCALES   Organized   knowledge   Rules   AGENT-­‐BASED   MODELING   Tacit   Knowledge   Learning  and   adapta,on   We  can  have  mulHple  agents   MULTIPLE  INTERACTIONS   •  •  •  •  Networks  of  Actors   Feedback  relaHons   Emergent  organizaHon   Heterogeneity  of  behavior  
  15. 15. GREAT  APPROACH…  but  challenging   COMPUTING   ?   PROGRAMMING   ?   COMPUTABILITY   DECOMPOSABILITY   ABSTRACTION   INTEREST   VALIDITY   ?   ?   DECIDABILITY  
  16. 16. Hands  on!   PLEASE,  GO  TO:   hYp://climatechangejm.blogspot.com/  
  17. 17. DISCUSSION   How  do  you  think  ABM  could  face  these  issues?   •  Human  Agency  (Hassan,  2009;  Crate   &  Nutall,  2009)   •  History  and  Heterogeneity  maYer   (Rosen,  2003)   •  Scale  (Strauss  &  Orlove,2003;  Rosen,   2003)   •  Individual  PercepHon  and  Strategic   responses  (Rosen,2003)   •  Tractability  of  climate  change   (Rayner,2003;  Hassan,  2009)   •  JusHce  (Crate  &  Nutall,  2009)  
  18. 18. CLOSING  COMMENTS   How  can  a  simulaHon  ever  tell  us  anything   that  we  do  not  already  know?   HOLDING  THAT:   1.  A  simulaHon  is  no  beYer  than  the   assumpHons  built  into  it.   2.  A  computer  can  do  only  what  it  is   programmed  to  do.   SPACE  OF  DERIVED  POSSIBILITIES  ?   Correct  Reasoning   Correct  Reasoning   Correct  Premises   Correct  Premises   ASSUMPTIONS   ASSUMPTIONS  
  19. 19. CLOSING  COMMENTS   How  can  a  simulaHon  ever  tell  us  anything   that  we  do  not  already  know?   HOLDING  THAT:   1.  A  simulaHon  is  no  beYer  than  the   assumpHons  built  into  it.   2.  A  computer  can  do  only  what  it  is   programmed  to  do.   MODELING  THE  POORLY  UNDERSTOOD   Sufficient  Concepts   Sufficient  Concepts   Relevant  relaHonships   Relevant  relaHonships   Minimal  properHes   Minimal  properHes  

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