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EU energy Policy:
10 Y. Retrospect … & 10 Y. “Forecast”?
Brussels – Clayes & Casteels Xth Conference
(10th February 2015)
...
Eu:
Retrospect (1) Not born yet
Eu energy policy:
Retrospect (2) Not born yet
EU energy policy:
Retrospect (3) just 10 years old?
Old & new ways in the short life of
EU energy policy
I. 2004-2009: Totally unexpected (by me) EU got an energy
policy (bas...
[I] 2004-2009 EU got an energy policy
What was it about?
Previsibility (foreseeability) very low: “EU energy policy” was n...
EU energy policy? What’s about?
[I.1] Internal Marketl Market
First and foremost (Internal Market)
¤ Not because it is log...
EU energy policy? What’s about?
[I.2] EU Grid
• Second to Internal Market (EU Grids)
¤ because no power market can work if...
EU energy policy? What’s about?
[1.3] EU RES
• Only third and external to Internal Market and EU grids (EU RES)
¤ external...
[II] 2012-2014: core assumptions derail…
5+ core assumptions have proved fragile or false & called for a
reformulation of ...
[II.Cted] Derailed? Commission novelties
June 2012: make your choice - November 2013: some guide lines – January
2014: Ber...
www.florence-school.eu
[III] 2015-2025: (my) 5 keys for new EU energy policy?
5 not 8: Grids, R&D, C02 not detailed…
• 1- ...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.1](sl.1) The internal electricity market:
European wholesale crisis with any European remedy?
...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.1](sl.2) The internal electricity market:
European wholesale crisis with any European remedy?
...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.1](sl.3) The internal electricity market:
A “smart retail” boom coming?
• First: “populist ret...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.1](sl.4) The internal electricity market:
A “smart retail” boom coming?
• 1.2/2 EU Retail mark...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.2] (sl.1) The internal gas market: a last mile
needed, or one thousand miles more?
• Yes EU fa...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.2] (sl.2) The internal gas market: a last mile
needed, or one thousand miles more?
• 2.2 EU Ga...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.3] (sl.1) EU @28 MS “target sets” from 20-20-20 to
2030: could it lead us (EU) somewhere?
• En...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.3] (sl.2) EU @28 MS “target sets” :
could it lead us (EU) somewhere?
• 3.2 - 2030@28 Target “m...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.4](sl.1) The “2030@28” governance:
any appropriate EU frame for this new policy?
• 28 country ...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.4](sl.2) The “2030@28” governance:
any appropriate EU frame for this new policy?
.2 - 2030 Gov...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.5] (sl.1) External energy (security &policy): some
Ext.Energy Union… or only @28 Ext.Energy Di...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.5] (sl.2) some Ext.Energy Union…
or only @28 Ext.Energy Disunion?
• 5.2 External energy “mini+...
www.florence-school.eu
[III.5] (sl.3) some Ext.Energy Union…
or only @28 Ext.Energy Disunion?
• 5.3 External energy “maxi”...
www.florence-school.eu
How to conclude?
EU energy policy future(s): Energy Union(s) or BAU?
www.florence-school.eu
1- ‘’Energy Union’’ has NO predefined content.
NOT a new institution (EU Treaty or pro-Treaty (Sche...
www.florence-school.eu
¤3-1> Commission (and/or Parliament ; or Council see Tusk SoS) can
take ‘policy initiatives’ and se...
www.florence-school.eu
Florence School offers you full-fledged online
• A course directed by Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga (MIT, F...
www.florence-school.eu
www.florence-school.eu 31
Thank you for your attention
Email contact: jean-michel.glachant@eui.eu
Follow me on Twitter: @J...
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EU Energy Policy: 10 Years Retrospect + 10 Years Forecast?

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Brussels, 10 February 2015

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EU Energy Policy: 10 Years Retrospect + 10 Years Forecast?

  1. 1. EU energy Policy: 10 Y. Retrospect … & 10 Y. “Forecast”? Brussels – Clayes & Casteels Xth Conference (10th February 2015) Jean-Michel Glachant Director Florence School of Regulation & Loyola de Palacio Chair EUI - Florence
  2. 2. Eu: Retrospect (1) Not born yet
  3. 3. Eu energy policy: Retrospect (2) Not born yet
  4. 4. EU energy policy: Retrospect (3) just 10 years old?
  5. 5. Old & new ways in the short life of EU energy policy I. 2004-2009: Totally unexpected (by me) EU got an energy policy (based on internal market… with a climate change pillar) ~1 Internal market / ~2 EU grid / ~3 EU RES II. 2013-14: (Unfortunately) policy derailed… and so what? Do we move or divorce? ~1 EU Commission / ~2 EU power industry / ~3 EU power grids III. 2015-2025: (my) 5 keys for new EU energy policy? Energy Union(s) or BAU? ~1 & ~2 Internal Market for power & gas / ~3 & ~4 (28 ways) to 2030 / ~5 External energy security 5
  6. 6. [I] 2004-2009 EU got an energy policy What was it about? Previsibility (foreseeability) very low: “EU energy policy” was not foreseen in 2004; & already “packaged” in 2009! • Game Changer 1 (2005 Hampton Court Council Tony Blair: long life EU internal Security of Supply) • Game Changer 2 (2007 -Lisbon treaty- Berlin Council Angela Merkel: long life EU energy sustainability 20-20-20 in 2020) • Game Changer 3 (2006 & 2009 Russia - Ukraine: Emergency plans + security reg. 2010 & infrastructure package 2011-13) 6
  7. 7. EU energy policy? What’s about? [I.1] Internal Marketl Market First and foremost (Internal Market) ¤ Not because it is logical or astute to get it to support an EU energy policy – but because EU Commission strong & legitimate there: Internal Market “raison d’etre” (Single Act + Treaty). We got ¤ 1st Package: *“Free Entry in Generation” ** “B2B Consumer eligibility” *** “Free movement of goods at borders” ¤ Second Package added: full retail eligibility; transparent & market friendly cross-border operation; regulators supporting market building; but cannot get open wholesale pricing & sequence of markets (Day-Ahead to real time) ¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤ ¤ Third Package unable to add full EU harmonization of “market design & operation rules” >> but did set up a process to produce it with new Bodies: *ENTSO-E to “EU” the TSOs; **ACER to “EU” the NRAs 7
  8. 8. EU energy policy? What’s about? [I.2] EU Grid • Second to Internal Market (EU Grids) ¤ because no power market can work if Grids aren’t market friendly: We got ¤ 1st Package: *“Third Party Access to Grids” ** “Including all borders” ¤ Second Package did add: Regulated access to grids; regulators duties for markets and grids; transparent & market friendly cross-border grid operation, congestion mechanisms, grid capacity allocation ¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤ ¤ Third Package unable to add full EU harmonization of “market design & grid operation rules” >> but did set up a process to produce it with new Bodies: *ENTSO-E(G): EU GridCodes &EU TYNDP GridPlanning; **ACER : “EU” NRAs ¤ NB: Third Package didn’t try to EU harmonization of grid tariffs making; of grid country investment & data methodology; did miss all Distribution grids issue AND Market Operators (wholesale exchange as PXs); NO EU regulator 8
  9. 9. EU energy policy? What’s about? [1.3] EU RES • Only third and external to Internal Market and EU grids (EU RES) ¤ external because RES are *subsidy pushed (not market pulled –energy market or carbon price) and **country regulated (no EU wide system of RES push rules in 2007 -except size of countries RES quotas) ¤ EU got a split: # RES split between “green part” (out of market price & trade order, in “own special circuit”) &”energy flow” (into EU Market & MS Systems) * RES energy flows circulate through grids to directly enter the demand (while being variable and not dispatched) >> very strong interactions between RES, power system and grids operation ** NonRES can serve only “residual demand”; only what variable RES cannot feed at each moment > very strong market interactions between RES & nonRES (capacity “adequacy” given by amount of working RES) ¤ Small RES > small interactions; Massive RES>> massive interactions 9
  10. 10. [II] 2012-2014: core assumptions derail… 5+ core assumptions have proved fragile or false & called for a reformulation of EU energy policy frame… • 1 Fossil fuel scarce and pricey / gas & oil “new abundance” • 2 Fossil fuel pricey but “EU suppliers secure enough” / Russia & M-E • 2bis Nuclear pricey but CO2 free & “secure enough” / Fukushima & EPR • 3 Internal market needed to get EU power price convergence from CCGT competition /RES pushed by national subsidies &national cost allocation • 4 Putting a price on carbon everywhere relevant for sustainability /? • 5 Green revolution, green jobs, world green manufacturing leadership /? Uncertainties are very high & Certainty is very little > Time for well-deserved EU break? >>Or EU new start? But a new one… 10
  11. 11. [II.Cted] Derailed? Commission novelties June 2012: make your choice - November 2013: some guide lines – January 2014: Berlin 20-20-20 “game over”. Competitiveness & costs back to top • June 2012 - Options for RES policy post 2020 / S2: Only “Carbon Price” is risky and unfavorable to technology innovation / S3: National RES targets risk EU fragmentation and high unit costs but favors decentralization & distributed Gen. /S4 EU RES target and harmonized frame favor costs reduction, cross-border investments, large scale innovation but with +grid & system costs • November 2013 - Guide lines for RES support till 2020 / Only small units & less mature RES (as off-shore & bio-mass) keep FiT / big unit and deployed RES only FiP & Tgy neutral auction (ex: On-Shore or PV 1MW) • January 2014 - Framework post 2020 / *“EU binding”GHGtargets +**“MS only” RES target & “appropriate “ EU governance for MS action plans 11
  12. 12. www.florence-school.eu [III] 2015-2025: (my) 5 keys for new EU energy policy? 5 not 8: Grids, R&D, C02 not detailed… • 1- The internal electricity market: currently European crisis… with any European remedy? But #Wholesale; #Retail… • 2- The internal gas market: a last mile needed, or one thousand miles more? • 3- EU @28 national ways from 20-20-20 to 2030: could “2030@28” lead us (as EU) somewhere vis-à-vis 2050? • 4- The “2030@28” policy governance: any EU frame for this “2030@28” energy policy to work with “internal market”? • 5- External energy (security and policy): at least some Ext.Energy Union… or only continuing existing @28 Ext.Energy Disunion? + another key simplification… I only contrast a “mini” & a “maxi” option for each of these five key issues 12
  13. 13. www.florence-school.eu [III.1](sl.1) The internal electricity market: European wholesale crisis with any European remedy? • Prices too low for generators… thermal &RES…> no entry @current price And so what? It is a market “full stop”. Is this sustainable? No market-base entry? • 1.1/1 EU Wholesale market “mini”: Only a few fixes added to existing EU Power Target Model … *core of fixes: “really reflexive market for flexibility” At intra-day and real time horizons *AND core of remedy: end of life for redundant plants (CCGT euthanasia) 13
  14. 14. www.florence-school.eu [III.1](sl.2) The internal electricity market: European wholesale crisis with any European remedy? • 1.1/2 EU Wholesale market “maxi”: New EU “Market Target Model” needed to reach sustainable “technology choice / investment decisions / operation of power system” … > “policy pushed amount of RES” hurts market signals >> energy markets cannot work “normally” when generation technology & capacity choice are not market-base >>> at least 3 ways of change: / For entry into supply: *LT power price guarantee; **LT grid access guarantee / For system operation: ***Sht.T flexibility & responsiveness 14
  15. 15. www.florence-school.eu [III.1](sl.3) The internal electricity market: A “smart retail” boom coming? • First: “populist retail explosion” (Bulgaria; Sp & Fr deficits; UK bill politics)? I do not know how EU might deal with populist explosion. • Then Second: I will address only “smart retail explosion”… (from DR to Google, Uber, etc) • 1.2/1 EU Retail market “mini”: Let market forces do / sufficient to get a “No regret” EU platform … as: *EU minimal common standard of operation (as: def. new retail services / def. ITC protocol) **+ cyber security frame ***++ mini unbundling distribution (only data ownership? Some new services?) >> CEER options to come to EC 15
  16. 16. www.florence-school.eu [III.1](sl.4) The internal electricity market: A “smart retail” boom coming? • 1.2/2 EU Retail market “maxi”: Really need full “smart retail EU 3d Package” as … *EU retail market “Target Model”, **full distrib. grid unbundling, ***EU level grid codes and ITC codes, ** **EU level methodology for distribution grid planning and regulation, ** ***an ENDSO-E twinning & mirroring ENTSO-E But the US do not need all this cumbersome arsenal… Yes : Us in the EU are really like the US – we did notice it since a while… 16
  17. 17. www.florence-school.eu [III.2] (sl.1) The internal gas market: a last mile needed, or one thousand miles more? • Yes EU faces two types of shocks *US & Saudi Arabia for price – **Russia? for volume? • And so what? Could we really do anything to prepare or respond? • 2.1 EU Gas wholesale “mini”: ¤ No market is built only for addressing too specific types of shocks ¤ Let market work (Sh.T / LT) : that’s it ¤ Only to consolidate existing EU Target Model we need very few … *few connections West-East; **some capacity allocation & balancing regimes here; ***market coupling there 17
  18. 18. www.florence-school.eu [III.2] (sl.2) The internal gas market: a last mile needed, or one thousand miles more? • 2.2 EU Gas wholesale “maxi”: Of course no “purely” market base remedy to earthquake… hence public intervention as: *checking National Security Plans consistency; **linking National Plans & TYNDP ***creating EU stocks/ flows monitoring; ** **new investment vehicles for TSOs undertaking “non commercially viable” investments as LNG T. or External interco. 18
  19. 19. www.florence-school.eu [III.3] (sl.1) EU @28 MS “target sets” from 20-20-20 to 2030: could it lead us (EU) somewhere? • End of Berlin-2007 demanding triple targets: • Hence “deep renationalization” of 2030 EU energy targets? • Frankly: why to worry about? Willingness to act is political & national • And why not to worry? • 3.1 – 2030@28 Target “mini”: Exiting RES priority … and scaling back to CO2 only target (GHG Cap) + some R&D and International Green funding. ¤ > See Stern& Calderon report for UN. Sept 2014 ¤ >> NB they also call for: *full fossil subsidy phasing out ** progressive coal ban… 19
  20. 20. www.florence-school.eu [III.3] (sl.2) EU @28 MS “target sets” : could it lead us (EU) somewhere? • 3.2 - 2030@28 Target “maxi”: OK (Fall 2013 to Oct 2014) We won’t see EuCouncil changing its mind soon BUT: Energy efficiency target for “coalition of the willing MS”? (1/2 MS or so?)… 1- doesn’t touch national energy mix (from RES to coal, nuclear & shale gas); 2- has “growth support” flavor : buildings (+ “circular” & “sharing” economy) 3- time come to discuss National Action Plans (see Germany / new EU “California industry paradox”?) + questions business models… (national only?) + … also market & regulation principles (EU open or MS trench) +… org. financing & bankability (within Juncker’s fund plan? EIB?) 20
  21. 21. www.florence-school.eu [III.4](sl.1) The “2030@28” governance: any appropriate EU frame for this new policy? • 28 country ways to go to 2030: we know • Could Commission cope with it within existing <Internal Market + Competition> tool box? • We wonder: Why not? How? • 4.1 - 2030 Governance “mini”: Do not worry… ¤ Be EU market happy… ¤ EC has all needed weaponry in Internal Market & Competition Policy: no need to do more than: *all RES in an open market; **all capacity mechanisms being DG Comp compliant; ***all retail market and demand response rules being Internal Market & DG Comp compliant 21
  22. 22. www.florence-school.eu [III.4](sl.2) The “2030@28” governance: any appropriate EU frame for this new policy? .2 - 2030 Governance “maxi”: Do not dream… You cannot frame demanding non-market issue GHG sustainability only with market-related tools (even Carbon Price doesn’t act) … Time to discuss new governance & new ad-hoc powers: {“Energy Union”}? *market &grid regulatory powers at EU level; **carbon tax &fossil subsidies; powers at EU level ***plant & car emission caps powers at EU level; ** **neighboring NAP consistency approval powers at EU level; etc… Whom? *Commission itself? ** what about Euro-bodies ”Expertise” as Acer? Entso? Endso? EnMOs? ***Much more Bottom Up? Regional MS, NRAs, Mos & TSOs? >> time for regional “blossoming”? 22
  23. 23. www.florence-school.eu [III.5] (sl.1) External energy (security &policy): some Ext.Energy Union… or only @28 Ext.Energy Disunion? • External energy security @28? Why? What would you like to achieve? • See EU “Border Security” as dirty war in Ukraine (Donald Tusk Pdt EuCouncil yesterday: how weak we are; how well it is known worldwide) • 5.1 External energy “mini”: best friends? BAU! Our best friends to get the max from external energy CONSTRAINTS are our twin internal markets / gas & power… … # The more flows will flow &arbitrage work: the best possible we will get… # Because our markets pool all resources @EU level # We cannot get ideal resources only the ones available : we then only need to let them freely flowing inside the EU > as in the US > hence EU Internal Market 23
  24. 24. www.florence-school.eu [III.5] (sl.2) some Ext.Energy Union… or only @28 Ext.Energy Disunion? • 5.2 External energy “mini+”: (Oettinger + Tusk) Market? Yes BUT++ because EU internal markets give their best only IF all their external borders are put INSIDE our internal EU frame … as: *interconnections planning & unbundling (ex. Morocco – Spa – Por- Fra); **interconnections access & tariffs; ***energy supply bilateral “agreements” & “contracts” compliant with Trade, Internal Mark & Competition EU policies; + Why not some case by case “Joint Venture” or “Single Buyer”? One could add: ** ** “real” integration between EU Internal markets-grids &EFTA (CH – NR) + Energy Community markets & grids (UKR or Serbia) 24
  25. 25. www.florence-school.eu [III.5] (sl.3) some Ext.Energy Union… or only @28 Ext.Energy Disunion? • 5.3 External energy “maxi”: (J. Delors in 2010; H. Kohl; etc.) only an Energy Union with substantial powers could put EU on track for external energy security EU external energy security too close from “hard security affairs” being key MS sovereign powers (as: immigration, terrorism or cyber attacks)…. Challenges faced today by EU for energy security as big as “European Defense Community “&“European Coal &Steel Community” in the 50’ + US not anymore our “World Cop” >> EU answers needed as big as in 50’ • Content: ALL option“mini+” [*interconnections planning&unbundling, **access&tariffs; ***supply bilateral agreements&contracts compliant with Trade, IntMark & Comp. Policies; +** ** integration between EU Internal markets-grids and neighboring markets-grids] + any other “external energy policy matter” (from EFTA, Energy Community to Energy Charter & Neighboring Policy) >> put in a new Treaty bidding EU MS with new rules & new laws… >> or voluntary “Pro-Treaty”: a Schengen-like alliance of the willing MS… 25
  26. 26. www.florence-school.eu How to conclude? EU energy policy future(s): Energy Union(s) or BAU?
  27. 27. www.florence-school.eu 1- ‘’Energy Union’’ has NO predefined content. NOT a new institution (EU Treaty or pro-Treaty (Schengen-like Agreement) - even not EU body (say ‘ACER’ or ‘ENTSO’) >> SO many alternative Energy Union(s) are conceivable 2- an Energy Union <mini-mini>? (EU) can put new tag on (existing institutions + BAU) = call it Ener.Un Within this BAU what we wil finally get is however undefined: ¤ MS have the power to take strong initiatives (Germany: Off-shore + Energy Efficiency) (UK: SoS being Capacity mechanism + LT contrat with UK Nuclear + off-shore + ISO Grid +?) (France: own Capacity mechanism + will do off-shore too? Will put EDF as shareholder of Areva + strangle ‘EPR’ &create new ‘small’ nuke reactors 600MW’;etc ) ¤ Commission has strong (Internal Market + Competition Policy tools): but more reactive than proactive? ¤ Council has strong (ex ante) veto powers; ¤Parliament (ex post) too 3- an Energy Union <mini+>? (New tag on existing institutions + extended to new prefered policies) see Delors Institute-J.A Vinois / S.Andoura : EnUn >> Internal Market
  28. 28. www.florence-school.eu ¤3-1> Commission (and/or Parliament ; or Council see Tusk SoS) can take ‘policy initiatives’ and see how MS would respond {as: solidarity; retail innovation; energy efficiency till heating & transportation; } ¤3-2> Existing EU bodies (ENTSOs ACER) have an autonomous sphere of action: grid codes; EU Target Model + (ENTSO-e ‘joint ventures’ RSI; JAO) <remember ‘Market Coupling’> + «Board of ACER for NRAs? ¤3-3> Advanced MS could deepen ‘regional initiatives’ (’Pentalateral forum’, ‘North-Sea Grid ’ or ‘Visegrad alliance’ ¤3-4> + Commission keeps all weaponery (as Internal Market + State Aid-Competition Policy) to open bargaining areas into the new territories open by other initiatives (Bottom UP opens to TOP) ¤3-5> If so: Commission could come back in 2016 with *a legislative package (regulation or directive) OR **local ‘Yalta(s)’ (either °Communication, °°Guide Lines, °°°Decisions see deals: UK LT nuclear and Germany RES surchange, etc) 4- Energy Union maxi (a full new ‘Institutional frame’ + extended content for policy) as Delors 2010 & Kohl 2014 The less likely // while perfectly logic // but too demanding in a period of ‘’Europessimism ’’ and ‘’institutional fatigue’’?
  29. 29. www.florence-school.eu Florence School offers you full-fledged online • A course directed by Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga (MIT, FSR & Comillas ) • 20 weeks of flexible online training • Exclusive access Pérez-Arriaga’s guidebook “Regulation of the Power Sector” • Direct interaction with a Faculty of leading experts (led by Ignacio’s team) • Support from the FSR Online Community • A Certificate of attendance (both FSR & Comillas) 1st edition 2 February –5 July 2015 (sold-out: 185 candidates registered) 2nd edition October 2015 –January 2016 > watch registration window @ http://florenceonlineschool.eui.eu/
  30. 30. www.florence-school.eu
  31. 31. www.florence-school.eu 31 Thank you for your attention Email contact: jean-michel.glachant@eui.eu Follow me on Twitter: @JMGlachant already 5 757 tweets My web site: http://www.florence-school.eu

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