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Summary of "Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline" by askpang


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These slides were from a talk summarizing Alex Soojung-Kim Pang's (askpang) awesome paper "Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline" for a Futures Studies class at the University of Houston.

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Summary of "Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline" by askpang

  1. 1. Reality Check for “Alternative Perspectives” on“Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline” by Alex Soojung-Kim Pang Josh Lindenger – November 1, 2012@jlindenger |
  2. 2. A re-envisioning of futures based on the shapeof things today… dealing with 21st century problems understanding cognitive biases harnessing new tools for collaboration/ understanding/shaping realizing that people (all of them) create the future
  3. 3. But first… Who is Alex Soojung-Kim Pang? look up “askpang” on the interwebs to find all of his stuff
  4. 4. 21stCenturyChallenges
  5. 5. Everybody is an influencer
  6. 6. wired tothink aboutthe future,but poorly
  7. 7. Expertise in forecasting can also be problematic
  8. 8. Despite all this,we MUST think about the future We just need to figure out how to do it better…
  9. 9. Enter the tools… For dealing with the complex future… Social scanning | prediction markets For evaluating methods and impact… bias mitigation | ethnographic studies For shaping the co-created future… Choice architecture and nudges
  10. 10. Social scanning would shift from a private activity to a public oneharnessing current scanning effortsmassaging them with algorithmsdelivering aggregate, collective results to the greater community
  11. 11. Prediction markets…are a forecasting technique based on market economics are kind of like a De/phi, but different present some challenges for use by futurists
  12. 12. Futurists need tools that help Mitigate the cognitive biases that plague expertise“better anticipate the future by more objectively engaging with [our] own pasts”
  13. 13. A quick aside for context… IARPA’s Aggregative Contigent Estimation (ACE) challenge
  14. 14. Ethnographic studies could help us understand how forecasts are usedThe “not about being right, but useful” philosophy is hard to stomach if you don’t really know what useful means.
  15. 15. When well-designedChoice architectures and nudges present choices in ways that can Help people make better decisions and reach better futures
  16. 16. This paper is really one take onThe future of futuresand a pretty interesting one at that
  17. 17. The new tools could help us get at somepretty important things for the field… assessing the importance of accuracy Countering cognitive biases uniting the various strands of Futures “take thinking about the future out into the world, and make it more of an everyday activity”
  18. 18. The Challenge of Futures 2.0: How do we help people Create better futures for themselves?
  19. 19. Reframe how we think of Futures Not production of texts about the future…social practices and performances creating futures
  20. 20. What is our role then? Futurists as Choice architects complexity | long-term perspective | creativity