Introduction

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Introduction

  1. 1. Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT & the Workshop“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” Liberec, February 15-17, 2012 Jan Kyselý, Jan Picek
  2. 2. Liberec population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.) first noted as Reichenberg in 1348 prevailing German population until WWII centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester ofBohemia“ collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)
  3. 3. Liberec population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.) first noted as Reichenberg in 1348 prevailing German population until WWII centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester ofBohemia“ collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall) notable people include Ferdinand Porsche (1875-1951; Volkswagen Beetle – most manufactured car…) Karel Hubáček (1924-2011; SIAL Architectural Studio, Ještěd Tower – city’s dominant & the most respected Czech architectural work of the 20th century)
  4. 4. Ještěd Mt. & Tower built in 1963-1968 at the top of Ještěd Mt. (1012 m) 1969: the Perret Prize from the International Union of Architects 2000: Czech architects named Ještěd tower the most successful domesticarchitectural work of the 20th century shape naturally extends the silhouette of the hill a place to oversee much of Bohemia and parts of Poland and Germany
  5. 5. Liberec in the centre of a mountain region (surrounded by the Jizera Mountainsand the Ještěd-Kozákov Ridge, both exceeding 1000 m a.s.l.) World Championship in cross-country (Nordic) skiing 2009 plenty of rain & snow… Nová Louka, July 29, 1897: 345 mm in 24 h (record-breaking in Central Europe)
  6. 6. KLIMATEXT project 2011/10 – 2014/9 PI: Jan Picek “Statistical Modelling of CLIMATE EXTremes” statisticians, climatologists, hydrologist, geographers built on previous successful cooperation between Czech climatologists andstatisticians “Strengthening international cooperation of the KLIMATEXT research team”(ESF) cooperating institutions: KNMI (de Bilt, Netherlands), CSIC (Zaragoza,Spain), University of Lisbon (Portugal)
  7. 7. KLIMATEXT project development of advanced statistical models for estimatingprobabilities of climate extremes “advanced”: non-stationarity/covariates spatial/regional analysis attracting a lot of interest in recent years – “extreme progress” indevelopment and implementation of these methodologies in the past 5-7years at the international literature(availability of 1) statistical methodologies, 2) computation/programming resources, 3) “research need” – climate change) still many open and unresolved issues
  8. 8. The Workshop (Feb. 15-17) non-stationarity/covariates in EVA in climatology formal time schedule: yes, but… work in progress questions, comments, ideas etc. during presentations welcome logistic things, forms etc.: Ivana Šafarčíková & Pavla Charwotová lunch – university canteen
  9. 9. The Workshop (Feb. 15-17) field trip (this afternoon): fill-in your preference during tea break! meeting at 14:50 (option 1) or 14:40 (option 2) at the reception cable car: return ticket 120 CZK, one-way 75 CZK the plan is to go down at 17:00 and have dinner at ~17:30 Option 1: Ještěd by cable car (meeting at 14:50 at the reception) Option 2: Ještěd on foot (14:40 at the reception) Option 3: no excursion (17:30 at restaurant in Horní Hanychov; maps will be available)
  10. 10. The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)Today: Session 1: Extremes in climate models, spatial dependence Session 2: Nonstationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) methodTomorrow: Session 3: Covariate-dependent extremes Session 4: Precipitation, covariates & extremes
  11. 11. Hope you will enjoy all 3: Liberec, KLIMATEXT & the Workshop“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”

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