Innovation Economy: Resist the hype but don’t ignore the realities Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf Research Fellow   S T K I  [email...
WIKIPEDIA STKI מתוך ויקיפדיה ,   האנציקלופדיה החופשית חברת  STKI - Schwarzkopf The Knowledge Integrators   היא חברת ייעוץ ...
All Rights Reserved @STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 74 444 74  www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Mosh...
Inviting you to my office  All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
and to my library......... All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
This presentation is dangerous: will make people think  about  intelligence  and  wisdom   (two very different things) <ul...
 
 
If I could have predicted this ?? All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info “...
So: I cannot “predict” any one in particular but…..
Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot  www.KurzweilAI.net All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9...
www.KurzweilAI.net
What has happened in 2008 and what can I do?  … will this change INSTITUTIONS organization, production and consumption hab...
Prof. Prescott and Prof. Kydland  <ul><li>&quot;contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic ...
Economic progress takes place by overlapping surges DRIVEN BY SUCCESSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL   REVOLUTIONS Technological progres...
FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 230 YEARS
PROF. THOMAS KUHN All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info <ul><li>we do not...
Prof. Joseph Schumpeter  <ul><li>Suggested that Economies are Driven by “ Creative Destruction ” </li></ul><ul><li>Shifts ...
TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE  big-bang Next big-bang Degree of diffusion of the technological revolution Time...
Austrian-School  credit cycle theory <ul><li>Ineffective central bank policies tend to &quot;artificially&quot; set  inter...
Recurring phases of each great surge
The changing face of the last 100 years
During the deployment phase: unprecedented opportunities and new business models
Prof. Carlota Perez :  TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS
Which road should we take ? All Rights Reserved @STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 74 444 74  www.stki.info Alice  ca...
directions of the  current paradigm shift
FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT “ SERVICES”
Reinvest in human capital
Prof. Israel Kirzner <ul><li>Into a world of  men unable to learn … introduce a group of outsiders who are  able to percei...
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Assumption : Generation C is here  The birth of  Generation C (T people) Control  Content Communicate Creativity Channel  ...
from  BUILD  product to  CREATE  service   The New Economic Age All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +...
So what do we do in the “New Era” ?
 
Shift to a solutions economy From product to service What are customers trying to solve? “ Less stuff… more service”
Service : A Definition <ul><li>Cultural change:  From product to service. </li></ul><ul><li>Service is produced and consum...
Example: Suppliers of components with added-value  <ul><li>Suppliers deliver more than a product, they  deliver a service ...
Competition in services?  better processes  All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.s...
SERVICE ECONOMY pushes need for “new CIO” Time Innovation BUSINESS PROCESSES All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zi...
<ul><li>“ I’m an inventor.  I became interested in  long term trends  because an invention has to  make sense in the world...
Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ? <ul><li>Represents a  change  in BUSINESS MODEL ? </li></ul><ul><li>Represents a  “disr...
Cloud Computing Modularity Desktop as a service Software as a service (standard applications ) Platform as a service (cust...
Wisdom of Clouds :  &quot;cloud computing&quot;  <ul><li>What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself but  how the p...
What is Cloud Computing? 4+ billion phones by 2010 Web 2.0-enabled PCs, TVs, etc. Businesses, from startups to enterprises...
Cloud Computing Architecture Monitoring DBMS Management Stack Provisioning  Manager Application Server Monitoring Provisio...
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
History of Innovation
Some background  All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Computing and Communication Technologies Evolution: 1960-2010! Control Centralised Decentralised Cloud  Computing
Disruptive  technologies   <ul><li>Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Introduction of the Apple...
Books of the 1980-90s <ul><li>-” No institution can possibly survive if it  needs geniuses or supermen to manage it . </li...
BOOK OF THE 1990’s <ul><li>Introduced the business world to rethinking operations.  </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstrated how pro...
BOOK OF 2003 copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966 Tactical and Strategic IT  management Plus 2000+ rebutt...
Book of 2005 <ul><li>Thomas Friedman </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 billion people (consumers & producers) entered the world econ...
Book of 2008 <ul><li>Stephen Baker  introduces us to the mathematical wizards who are digging through our data to decode u...
Math based word cloud
A process of mutual shaping  in a constantly changing context All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +97...
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs
Access Proliferation <ul><li>Video games </li></ul><ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>XBox LIVE </li></ul><ul><li>Websites </...
and the effect on IT……. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
The Peopleware Ecosystem Peopleware WCM Security Application Servers EAI Web Services E-Forms/Workflow Search Development ...
Infrastructures influence the new T person  <ul><li>infrastructure makes it possible for people to  work where they want, ...
OLDENBURG:  how infrastructure… <ul><li>Time is primarily spent in : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>First  (home)  place: isolated ...
Defining the new world T PERSON = Neo-nomad
Prof. Ragnar Frisch <ul><li>Willingness of people to  substitute  as well as their ability to substitute. </li></ul><ul><l...
Neo-nomads :  new Bedouins flourishing in the coffeehouses of central Israel All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zi...
Nomad Worker (2008) vs.  Paris Existentialist (1950s) <ul><li>Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and laptop in Arcaffe (2008) </...
2007:  the year of my discovery <ul><li>“ SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I could outsource menta...
An example:  my romantic attachment to my “GPS” All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 w...
Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ? my son is calling from there All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  ...
I have  outsourced  part of my life  to  external cognitive servants : <ul><li>No longer need a memory </li></ul><ul><ul><...
Jimmy’s Touch Points Buys tickets online Checks scores Looks for information about Nascar games Reads up on  new cd  relea...
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And with access to these tools I can answer  ANY question in less then 30 minutes All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bn...
Transaction Sites Multimedia Sites Game Sites Social Sites Average person: 10-15 intimate 150 social 500-1500 weak links A...
Is it a coincidence or someone is playing with us 1) Google's dissemination of old  United Airlines news  resulting in a p...
How do they happen…..
A powerful global conversation has begun <ul><li>Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to sh...
“ A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander <ul><li>Each  pattern describes a problem  that occurs over and over again in...
Companies wake up !!!!!!! <ul><li>Customers are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>writing about products on blogs </li></ul></ul><ul>...
Social Technographics™  Josh Bernoff, co-author of  Groundswell All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +...
METAweb <ul><li>METAweb phenomenon  </li></ul><ul><li>(fi-nom- uh -non) </li></ul><ul><li>-noun </li></ul><ul><li>a rare o...
METAweb All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Google versus ??? <ul><li>Humanity  emits the data (words, pictures, clicks, and searches are the raw material) </li></ul>...
http://labs.google.com/ All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
<ul><li>IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing   CIO Today - Nov 15 2007  </li></ul><ul><li>  IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Rese...
Why does it bother me ? All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Google 10 years of innovation 1995 1998 2000 2003 2005 2004 2007 ? Core Search Ads   Monetization Communications   Collabo...
Google ad
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All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
 
 
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Open for Business
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Internet 2  is not  Web 2 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
WEB 2 are WEB  Technologies All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
Leveraging the Web for  Measureable Business Results   <ul><li>Gone  are the days when merely having an  online presence  ...
In 2010: all new WEB experience <ul><li>Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room that can be experienced alone o...
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All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Add your room to your site Invite y...
Ramona:  first live virtual performing recording  artist . All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI  Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel  +972 9...
Second Life is the  biggest virtual world <ul><li>40,000 concurrency (at any time) </li></ul><ul><li>450,000 active users ...
Currency: Linden$ <ul><li>LindeX exchange operated by Linden Lab </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Buy: USD $.30 transaction fee  </li...
Economy <ul><li>Reuters </li></ul><ul><li>Banking and credit </li></ul><ul><li>Stock markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SL Capi...
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2008 service based economy???? the future

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2008 service based economy???? the future

  1. 1. Innovation Economy: Resist the hype but don’t ignore the realities Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf Research Fellow S T K I [email_address]
  2. 2. WIKIPEDIA STKI מתוך ויקיפדיה , האנציקלופדיה החופשית חברת STKI - Schwarzkopf The Knowledge Integrators היא חברת ייעוץ בתחום מערכות מידע בישראל , המפעילה צוות של אנליסטים . לקוחות החברה כוללים בנקים , חברות ביטוח , משרדי ממשלה , חברות היי - טק ותעשייה , חברות טלקום ועוד . באמצע שנות ה -80, ד &quot; ר ג ' ימי ( חיים ) שוורצקוף ביצע את המחקר הראשון מסוגו אודות שוק טכנולוגיית המידע בישראל , עבור חברת DEC . המחקר הכה גלים בשוק הישראלי , ונתן תמונת מצב קונקרטית בשוק שהיה עד אותה עת בלתי ממופה . ד &quot; ר שוורצקוף המשיך בחקר השוק ובשנת 1992 הקים את חברת Meta Group Israel , ששימשה כנציגות בישראל של חברת Meta Group העולמית . במסגרת החברה , המשיך ד &quot; ר שוורצקוף לפרסם מחקרי שוק בתחום באופן קבוע , וכן לספק ייעוץ לחברות והארגונים המובילים בשוק . בשנת 2004 נרכשה Meta Group העולמית על ידי חברת גרטנר , וד &quot; ר שוורצקוף והאנליסטים המשיכו בפעילותם בישראל תחת השם STKI .
  3. 3. All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info
  4. 4. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  5. 5. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  6. 6. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  7. 7. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  8. 8. Inviting you to my office All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  9. 9. and to my library......... All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  10. 10. This presentation is dangerous: will make people think about intelligence and wisdom (two very different things) <ul><li>Evariste Galois (1811-1832) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>accepted a duel with pistols. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>spent the night before the duel in writing down his mathematical testament : theory of transformation of roots in algebraic equations . </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  11. 13. If I could have predicted this ?? All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info “ When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network.” – Eric Schmidt, did in 1993
  12. 14. So: I cannot “predict” any one in particular but…..
  13. 15. Exponential Growth in logarithmic plot www.KurzweilAI.net All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  14. 16. www.KurzweilAI.net
  15. 17. What has happened in 2008 and what can I do? … will this change INSTITUTIONS organization, production and consumption habits and norms ? <ul><li>Is there a difference between economic cycles caused by: </li></ul><ul><li>Technology changes </li></ul><ul><li>Credit mismanagement </li></ul>
  16. 18. Prof. Prescott and Prof. Kydland <ul><li>&quot;contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind business cycles &quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Forces behind business cycles : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology for converting inputs of capital and labor into output of goods (technology for creating value) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technological change </li></ul></ul>Sveriges Riksbank Prize Economic Sciences Alfred Nobel 2004 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  17. 19. Economic progress takes place by overlapping surges DRIVEN BY SUCCESSIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS Technological progress Time 40-60 years
  18. 20. FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 230 YEARS
  19. 21. PROF. THOMAS KUHN All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info <ul><li>we do not advance in steady, even progress but in a series of peaceful interludes punctuated by violent revolutions , </li></ul><ul><li>each conceptual world view is replaced by another </li></ul><ul><li>PARADIGM SHIFT : </li></ul><ul><li>A change in world view that calls everything you know into question </li></ul><ul><li>Paradigm Shift Rate is now doubling every decade </li></ul>
  20. 22. Prof. Joseph Schumpeter <ul><li>Suggested that Economies are Driven by “ Creative Destruction ” </li></ul><ul><li>Shifts the Focus of Economics from Price Adjustment to Innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Innovation Tends to Produce Sectoral Bubbles </li></ul><ul><li>Bubbles Tend to Eventually Burst </li></ul><ul><li>The Fallout from Bursting Bubbles Often Threatens to Trigger an Economy-wide Recession </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  21. 23. TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS IN EACH GREAT SURGE big-bang Next big-bang Degree of diffusion of the technological revolution Time Kuhn’s “ boom” Schumpeter’s Creative destruction Turning Point Institutional recomposition and role shift INSTALLATION PERIOD ‘ Creative destruction’ Paradigm shift DEPLOYMENT PERIOD Reaping of growth and social benefits from the prevailing paradigm 2O - 30 years 2O - 30 years ???
  22. 24. Austrian-School credit cycle theory <ul><li>Ineffective central bank policies tend to &quot;artificially&quot; set  interest rates too low for too long , resulting in excessive credit creation, speculative &quot;bubbles&quot; and &quot;artificially&quot; low savings. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking system. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leading to an unsustainable &quot;monetary boom&quot; during which the &quot;artificially stimulated&quot; borrowing seeks out diminishing investment opportunities. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A correction or &quot;credit crunch&quot; – commonly called a &quot;recession&quot; or &quot;bust&quot; – occurs when this credit creation cannot be sustained . </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  23. 25. Recurring phases of each great surge
  24. 26. The changing face of the last 100 years
  25. 27. During the deployment phase: unprecedented opportunities and new business models
  26. 28. Prof. Carlota Perez : TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFTS
  27. 29. Which road should we take ? All Rights Reserved @STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 74 444 74 www.stki.info Alice came to a fork in the road . “ Which road do I take ?” she asked. “ Where do you want to go ?” responded the Cheshire cat. “ I don’t know ” Alice answered. “ Then ” said the cat, “ it doesn’t matter ”. Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
  28. 30. directions of the current paradigm shift
  29. 31. FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT “ SERVICES”
  30. 32. Reinvest in human capital
  31. 33. Prof. Israel Kirzner <ul><li>Into a world of men unable to learn … introduce a group of outsiders who are able to perceive opportunities …where a good can be sold at a price higher than that at which it can be brought. </li></ul><ul><li>This group of entrepreneurs …notice profit opportunities that exist because of the initial ignorance of the original market participants and that have persisted because of their inability to learn . </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  32. 34. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  33. 35. Assumption : Generation C is here The birth of Generation C (T people) Control Content Communicate Creativity Channel Creative Class Community Connected Co-Creators Cash Consumer 2.0 Conversation All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  34. 36. from BUILD product to CREATE service The New Economic Age All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Compete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space. Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant . Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand. Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off. Align the whole system of a firm’s activities with its strategic choice of differentiation or low cost. Align the whole system of a firm’s activities in pursuit of differentiation and low cost .
  35. 37. So what do we do in the “New Era” ?
  36. 39. Shift to a solutions economy From product to service What are customers trying to solve? “ Less stuff… more service”
  37. 40. Service : A Definition <ul><li>Cultural change: From product to service. </li></ul><ul><li>Service is produced and consumed at customer site and delivered by people. </li></ul><ul><li>A service is a series of activities that normally take place in interactions between the customer and supplier (employees, physical resources, goods and/or systems), and which are provided as answers to customers' needs. </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  38. 41. Example: Suppliers of components with added-value <ul><li>Suppliers deliver more than a product, they deliver a service : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>involvement in design phase of final product </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>order process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>delivery in-time and accurate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>invoice process </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The quality of the whole process is relevant , not only the quality of the delivered components. </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  39. 42. Competition in services? better processes All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  40. 43. SERVICE ECONOMY pushes need for “new CIO” Time Innovation BUSINESS PROCESSES All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  41. 44. <ul><li>“ I’m an inventor. I became interested in long term trends because an invention has to make sense in the world in which it is finished, not the world in which it is started .” </li></ul><ul><li>- </li></ul>Ray Kurzweil All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  42. 45. Moving from PRODUCT to a SERVICE ? <ul><li>Represents a change in BUSINESS MODEL ? </li></ul><ul><li>Represents a “disruptive” change ? </li></ul><ul><li>YES </li></ul><ul><li>CLOUD COMPUTING and SOA are basically new “disruptive” ways of delivering IT </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  43. 46. Cloud Computing Modularity Desktop as a service Software as a service (standard applications ) Platform as a service (custom applications) Infrastructure as a service (compute, storage, network)
  44. 47. Wisdom of Clouds : &quot;cloud computing&quot; <ul><li>What's revolutionary is not cloud computing itself but how the pieces have come together to make doing business in the cloud seem increasingly like an economic inevitability </li></ul><ul><li>Cloud computing is a simple concept: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Software and services are delivered over the Web and through a browser. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No servers or client software to install. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Available anytime, anywhere, from any device connecting to the Internet </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  45. 48. What is Cloud Computing? 4+ billion phones by 2010 Web 2.0-enabled PCs, TVs, etc. Businesses, from startups to enterprises 1. data and services reside in massively scalable data centers 2. accessed from any connected devices over the internet . All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  46. 49. Cloud Computing Architecture Monitoring DBMS Management Stack Provisioning Manager Application Server Monitoring Provisioning Baremetal & Xen VM Virtualized Infrastructure based on Open Source Linux & Xen Data Center – 64 bit X86 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Open Source Linux with Xen Monitoring Agent Virtual Machine Virtual Machine Virtual Machine Virtual Machine Apache
  47. 50. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  48. 51. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  49. 52. History of Innovation
  50. 53. Some background All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  51. 54. Computing and Communication Technologies Evolution: 1960-2010! Control Centralised Decentralised Cloud Computing
  52. 55. Disruptive technologies <ul><li>Introduction of the IBM Mainframe ( 1960’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Introduction of the Apple II (1978), IBM PC (1981), TCP/IP (1980’s), C/S Architectures (1980’s), SUN workstations (1980’s), Internet (1990’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Open Source (2002); Introduction of XML-based Composite Applications (2006), Service Oriented Architectures (2005), Virtualized Infrastructures (2004), Web2/internet 2 (2007), Cloud Computing (2008), METAweb (2008) </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  53. 56. Books of the 1980-90s <ul><li>-” No institution can possibly survive if it needs geniuses or supermen to manage it . </li></ul><ul><li>It must be organized in such a way as to be able to get along under a leadership composed of average human beings”- </li></ul><ul><li>“ It is the means by which [organizations] create value-producing resources or endows existing resources with enhanced potential for creating value” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The customer rarely buys what the company thinks it is selling him” </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  54. 57. BOOK OF THE 1990’s <ul><li>Introduced the business world to rethinking operations. </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstrated how process redesign can yield breakthroughs in performance </li></ul><ul><li>Put the word &quot;reengineering&quot; into the English language. </li></ul>Business Process enabled IT All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Plus 10,000 rebuttals And 20+ books
  55. 58. BOOK OF 2003 copied: “The Myth of Real Time Information”, HBR 1966 Tactical and Strategic IT management Plus 2000+ rebuttals And 5 books
  56. 59. Book of 2005 <ul><li>Thomas Friedman </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 billion people (consumers & producers) entered the world economies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Eastern Europe (ie: Rumania) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Asia (ie: China, India) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Now we have a “new” economy: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interconnected (fiber everywhere) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Standardized (Open Source) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Supply Chains Management </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Out-sourcing, In-sourcing, Off-shoring </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Info sourcing </li></ul></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  57. 60. Book of 2008 <ul><li>Stephen Baker introduces us to the mathematical wizards who are digging through our data to decode us as patients, shoppers, voters, potential terrorists—even lovers. </li></ul><ul><li>translate the complexity of highly intelligent knowledge workers into the same types of equations and algorithms that are used to fine-tune shipping, sales and other BI applications. </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  58. 61. Math based word cloud
  59. 62. A process of mutual shaping in a constantly changing context All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY
  60. 63. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs
  61. 64. Access Proliferation <ul><li>Video games </li></ul><ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>XBox LIVE </li></ul><ul><li>Websites </li></ul><ul><li>IM </li></ul><ul><li>Search </li></ul><ul><li>Radio </li></ul><ul><li>DVD </li></ul><ul><li>Ring Tones </li></ul><ul><li>TV </li></ul><ul><li>Blogs </li></ul><ul><li>Magazines </li></ul><ul><li>Satellite Radio </li></ul><ul><li>TiVo (Starhub PVR) </li></ul><ul><li>Video On-Demand </li></ul><ul><li>Newspapers </li></ul><ul><li>Podcasting </li></ul><ul><li>Cell Phone </li></ul>Source: Darwin Day Conference, Google
  62. 65. and the effect on IT……. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  63. 66. The Peopleware Ecosystem Peopleware WCM Security Application Servers EAI Web Services E-Forms/Workflow Search Development Tools E-Learning Directory Collaboration Expertise Location & Mgmt. SSO Wireless Business Intelligence Knowledge Mgmt. DM BPM Identity Management Composite App. Framework BAM
  64. 67. Infrastructures influence the new T person <ul><li>infrastructure makes it possible for people to work where they want, when they want, how they want </li></ul><ul><li>SIX abilities needed: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Design – Beauty and uniqueness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Story – More than mere facts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Symphony – Seeing the big picture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Empathy – Understanding others </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Play - Enjoyment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Meaning – Fulfillment </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  65. 68. OLDENBURG: how infrastructure… <ul><li>Time is primarily spent in : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>First (home) place: isolated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Second (work) place: isolated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Third places : neutral public space to connect and establish bonds. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Big Changes now: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Between 1990-2006 : people went to anonymous locations such as malls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Starting in 2007: good third place makes admission free or cheap (the price of a cup of coffee), offers comforts, is within walking distance and draws a group of regulars. </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  66. 69. Defining the new world T PERSON = Neo-nomad
  67. 70. Prof. Ragnar Frisch <ul><li>Willingness of people to substitute as well as their ability to substitute. </li></ul><ul><li>One decision that people must make is: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>how to allocate their time endowment, which is the most precious resource an individual has. </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Sveriges Riksbank Prize Economic Sciences Alfred Nobel 1969
  68. 71. Neo-nomads : new Bedouins flourishing in the coffeehouses of central Israel All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info <ul><li>A new breed of worker , fueled by caffeine and using the tools of modern technology </li></ul><ul><li>They are typically armed with laptops and cell phones, paying for their office space and Internet access by buying coffee and muffins </li></ul><ul><li>This neo-nomads see themselves changing the nature of the workplace , if not the world at large. </li></ul>
  69. 72. Nomad Worker (2008) vs. Paris Existentialist (1950s) <ul><li>Tel-Aviv geek with earphones and laptop in Arcaffe (2008) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>simultaneously cramming for exams, napping, instant-messaging, researching, reading and discussing, listening to music, browsing and e-mailing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Paris existentialist watching the world go by at the café Les Deux Magots (1950s) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>puffing a Gitane, napping and jotting down notes about being and nothingness </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  70. 73. 2007: the year of my discovery <ul><li>“ SACRED ORDER OF THE EXTERNAL MIND” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I could outsource mental tasks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Life is a math problem and I have a calculator </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MAGIC OF THE INFORMATION AGE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not that it allows us to know more </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It really allows us to know less </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  71. 74. An example: my romantic attachment to my “GPS” All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  72. 75. Pinpoints a supermarket in MEXICO ? my son is calling from there All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  73. 76. I have outsourced part of my life to external cognitive servants : <ul><li>No longer need a memory </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Yahoo </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wikipedia </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Personal Information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smartphone tells me about birthdays, phones, addresses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Musical taste: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ITunes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Books and others: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Amazon </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Social Capital </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LinkedIn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Xing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Facebook </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  74. 77. Jimmy’s Touch Points Buys tickets online Checks scores Looks for information about Nascar games Reads up on new cd releases Reads his friend’s postings Gets the latest updates on favorite teams Downloads Songs Music Sites Sports Sites Blog Sites Movie Sites Gaming Sites Google.com Searches for “what’s cool”
  75. 78. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  76. 79. And with access to these tools I can answer ANY question in less then 30 minutes All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  77. 80. Transaction Sites Multimedia Sites Game Sites Social Sites Average person: 10-15 intimate 150 social 500-1500 weak links All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Banks Insurance Travel “ Amazon” “ e-bay” YOUtube Slideshare Blogs Newspapers WIKIPEDIA Business Simulations Training Second Life Sales
  78. 81. Is it a coincidence or someone is playing with us 1) Google's dissemination of old  United Airlines news  resulting in a precipitous UAL stock slide 2) Google stocks appeared to fall off a cliff during the final few minutes of trading last week(Silicon Alley Insider has   a minute-by-minute breakdown ), plummeting from more than $400 per share to around $200. Luckily, it turns out  Nasdaq is declaring a “do-over,” canceling all trades above $425.28 or below $400.53. Nasdaq  blamed the drop  on “erroneous orders” that were “triggered by orders routed from another exchange.” So it has reset Google’s closing price at $400.52, up more than 5 percent from the day’s open. 3) Other news follows Google-related stock gaffe, during which  Google Finance’s data was incorrect for more than 12 hours . 4) Apple stock briefly took a dive Friday after a CNN iReport post appeared saying Steve Jobs had had a major heart attack. Apple said the story was false. Stock prices  fell as much as 5.4 percent  before rebounding, according to Bloomberg. UPDATE:  Here's CNN's official statement . CNN says it removed the story because the community brought the story to its attention. Importantly, CNN also refers to the content as &quot;fraudulent,&quot; which is much stronger than &quot;inaccurate.&quot; The SEC has  already launched an investigation. What happened? In all cases: systems unchecked by human beings made a mistake resulting in massive damage to an already fragile market. What else can we expect???????????? But the episodes aptly illustrates how jumpy the markets are and how easily they could be manipulated. Posted by Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf
  79. 82. How do they happen…..
  80. 83. A powerful global conversation has begun <ul><li>Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. </li></ul><ul><li>Networked markets are beginning to self-organize faster than the companies that have traditionally served them. </li></ul><ul><li>As a direct result and thanks to the web, markets are becoming better informed, smarter, and more demanding of qualities missing from most business organizations. </li></ul><ul><li>markets are getting smarter and getting smarter faster than most companies </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  81. 84. “ A Pattern Language”, Christopher Alexander <ul><li>Each pattern describes a problem that occurs over and over again in our environment </li></ul><ul><li>Then describes the core of the solution to that problem , in such a way that you can use this solution a million times over </li></ul><ul><li>Without ever doing it the same way twice </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  82. 85. Companies wake up !!!!!!! <ul><li>Customers are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>writing about products on blogs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>recutting commercials on YouTube </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>defining companies on Wikipedia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ganging up in social networking sites like Facebook </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MOST COMPANIES SEE IT AS A THREAT </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info CHARLENE LI JOSH BERNOFF
  83. 86. Social Technographics™ Josh Bernoff, co-author of Groundswell All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  84. 87. METAweb <ul><li>METAweb phenomenon </li></ul><ul><li>(fi-nom- uh -non) </li></ul><ul><li>-noun </li></ul><ul><li>a rare or significant fact or event in the web that happened in 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>something that is impressive or extraordinary that happened in 2007 </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  85. 88. METAweb All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  86. 89. Google versus ??? <ul><li>Humanity emits the data (words, pictures, clicks, and searches are the raw material) </li></ul><ul><li>Handful of cloud-wielding Internet giants like Google, Yahoo! or Amazon.com transform the info into insights, services, and, ultimately, revenue. </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  87. 90. http://labs.google.com/ All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  88. 91. <ul><li>IBM Introduces 'Blue Cloud' Computing CIO Today - Nov 15 2007  </li></ul><ul><li>  IBM, EU Launch RESERVOIR Research Initiative for Cloud Computing IT News Online - Feb 7 2008    </li></ul><ul><li>Google and Salesforce.com in cloud computing deal Siliconrepublic.com - Apr 14 2008    </li></ul>Cloud Computing All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  89. 92. Why does it bother me ? All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  90. 93. Google 10 years of innovation 1995 1998 2000 2003 2005 2004 2007 ? Core Search Ads Monetization Communications Collaboration ? All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  91. 94. Google ad
  92. 95. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  93. 96. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  94. 99. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  95. 100. Open for Business
  96. 101. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  97. 102. Internet 2 is not Web 2 All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  98. 103. WEB 2 are WEB Technologies All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  99. 104. Internet2: 2.4 Gbps plumbing All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  100. 105. Leveraging the Web for Measureable Business Results <ul><li>Gone are the days when merely having an online presence was a business breakthrough . </li></ul><ul><li>Today's companies MUST leverage the power of the Web if they're to gain and maintain a competitive advantage . </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  101. 106. In 2010: all new WEB experience <ul><li>Soon each website will become a 3 dimensional room that can be experienced alone or with friends </li></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  102. 107. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  103. 108. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  104. 109. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info Add your room to your site Invite your friends to chat and help decorate Express yourself Customize your avatar and stream personal photos and video Create your own virtual space Chat and interact with your friends in rooms you design
  105. 110. Ramona: first live virtual performing recording artist . All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info
  106. 111. Second Life is the biggest virtual world <ul><li>40,000 concurrency (at any time) </li></ul><ul><li>450,000 active users (last 7 days) </li></ul><ul><li>1.4 m active users (last 2 months) </li></ul><ul><li>10.6 m total accounts </li></ul><ul><li>2 m assets created per day </li></ul><ul><li>35 TB of user-created data </li></ul><ul><li>800,000 unique items sold or traded per month </li></ul><ul><li>500 events per day </li></ul><ul><li>15 m concurrent scripts </li></ul><ul><li>10 Gbps peak bandwidth </li></ul>Source: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphsphp Million Square Meters of Second Life Land Total User Hours (millions) Source: Linden Lab
  107. 112. Currency: Linden$ <ul><li>LindeX exchange operated by Linden Lab </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Buy: USD $.30 transaction fee </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sell: 3.5% transaction fee </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Monetary policy </li></ul>US$ Spent by Users (in Millions) US $ Exchanged on Lindex (in Millions) 270 L$ =$1 USD
  108. 113. Economy <ul><li>Reuters </li></ul><ul><li>Banking and credit </li></ul><ul><li>Stock markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SL Capital Exchange (US, 20 listings) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World Stock Exchange (Australia, 15 listings) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VSTEX (Italy, 7 listings) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ancapex (US, 3 listings) </li></ul></ul>
  109. 114. Advisory/Analyst firms H&R Block Island BDO Stoy Hayward Island KAWG&F (Baltimore MD CPA firm), CPA Island Accenture We hope that during 2009 STKI will be present there and will have it’s first SUMMIT
  110. 115. Business Motorati SpokesAvatar: caLLie cLine H&R Block IBM Dr. Dobbs Life 2.0 Conference Cisco Best Buy’s Geek Squad Preen Principal: Aimee Weber Preen
  111. 116. Academia, museums, non-profits Princeton Art Gallery Science Friday International Spaceflight Museum Computer History Museum American Cancer Society Relay for Life
  112. 117. Government, politics and collective action US Congress European Community US Congress – hot topic legislation Campaign HQs Davos protest
  113. 118. METAweb REVOLUTION <ul><li>The real, long-term change is just beginning to be felt, and anyone thinking about our economic future should consider this: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>access to information is a democratizing force </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>makes it inexpensive and easy to collaborate and share information. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>even the smallest companies can now have as big a presence online as a multinational corporation </li></ul></ul>All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info The revolution may have started in a garage in California but it has already crossed every border moving as freely around the globe as a cloud
  114. 119. All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 www.stki.info

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