Global Economics Update - June 2015

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A monthly summary of global economic performance including employment, trade, business conditions, leading indicators and regional data.

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Global Economics Update - June 2015

  1. 1. .... Laird Research - Economics June 11, 2015 Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 US Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Global Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Where we are now Welcome to the Laird Report. We present a selection economic data from around the world to help figure where we are today. It looks like inflation is coming back, at least in the US. More im- portantly, wage inflation is coming back - note the recent news articles about Walmart giving wage hikes etc. Quit rates and job opennings in the US are both up and the unemployment rate continues to drop. Participation rates – the portion of the population working or looking for work – are still at historic lows but holding steady, making year over year comparisons more appropriate. US wages grew 2.3% year over year. This is a big deal because one of the major items holding down inflation was excess labour supply - its hard to ask for a raise when you can be easily replaced with lower cost workers. That seems to have changed. The Employment Cost Index is showing an uptick indicating that those annecdotal data points are part of a larger trend. The other thing to consider is capacity utilization rates - basically, how close businesses are to running out of the ability to make more with the fixed assets they have. That rate has been slowly climbing over the past three years, but has dropped a bit (note as well that GDP for Q1 in the US was hit by record low temperatures which may explain part of that). There’s a cascade effect that is expected: higher wages and busi- nesses close to capacity translate into higher prices - but this is poten- tially masked by lower oil prices and global commodity prices (thanks for slowing down for us China!). You can look at the inflation charts to see that overall CPI crashed, but if you exclude food and oil, it’s hum- ming along nicely at about 2% - the consensus rate for the“appropriate” amount of inflation. Further, higher wages also translate into more disposible income, more spending and a hotter economy - both of those things seem to be happening now. So, we get a period of low prices, good domestic econ- omy (US PMI is at highs right now), growing wages and low interest rates.
  2. 2. Employment Cost Index YoY%Change 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1.52.02.53.03.5 median: 2.46 2015 Q1: 2.68 Capacity Utilization %ofMaxCapacity 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 70758085 median: 80.49 2015 Q1: 78.88 This is why we are seeing so many articles about the US Fed raising interest rates. The Fed’s job is to get ahead of inflation - there seem to be more factors pointing to inflation coming than away from it. The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate Of Unemployment (NAIRU) is the Fed’s best guess at the level of unemployment which doesn’t cause inflation to rise. Their target was recently dropped from 5.3% to 5.1% - they seem nervous about actually raising rates and uncertain about whether the recovery is sturdy enough to withstand normal interest rates again. Thus they keep moving the target to give themselves more wiggle room. See also their inflation targets. Once rates go up, then in theory the US dollar is more expensive, which makes exports more expensive (and imports cheaper) and the cost of capital will go up, which cools investment – negative factors for the US. The rest of the world will be happy to see that happen - the US consumer’s appetite for imported goodies has bailed out the global economy before – it is still the world’s biggest economy. We are also seeing lots of global currency games as various economies try to devalue their currencies against one another to boost their economies. I’m looking at you Japan. And you too Germany - how such a strong export economy gets away with a depressed currency is beyond me. I guess that’s why the rest of Europe is there [waves to Greece and Spain]. Unfortunately, currency manipulation is a zero sum game so that only works if one of their trading partners is willing to see their currency appreciate. The net result of this game would be a much stronger US dollar against the asian currencies. Again, the whole world is watching the US Fed because of all the ripple effects on currencies, imports etc. that happen as a result. We are seeing slower growth from China, but perhaps the biggest unknown is the EU. Their Quantitative Easing (QE) program is in place which should increase the money supply and simultaneously lower bond yields (more money in the system and it costs less to borrow = a boost for the Eurozone economy). However, a Greece debt default and Eu- rozone exit is a big question mark, more because of the uncertainty it creates than any specific impact - Greece is a low single digit percentage of the Eurozone economy. More importantly, we need to see that inflation is returning to the Eurozone - they are currently deflating, in part from a sputtering econ- omy and in part from lower crude prices. I’m not sure the impact of saber rattling from Putin on Europe - it actually seems to be nothing, though war is a consistent destroyer of value. Employment is improving there and the business outlook is happier - but there is still an enormous www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 2
  3. 3. amount of risk in the European economy. An observation: note that much of the discussion of government in- tervention is actually done through central banks and monetary policy - literally trillions of dollars (and Euros) of assets are being bought and eventually sold through extraordinary measures like QE. And this is af- ter interest rates have been basically dropped to zero. There was a time when monetary policy was paired with fiscal policy - the government would run a deficit and spend on some project or another and monetary policy would match it. It is historically odd that major economies have tossed aside all fiscal levers in favour of monetary strategies. Note that the issue with Greece is all about the appropriate level of austerity and restructuring that needs to happen - at the same time their central bank is engaging in a huge round of asset buying and rate cutting to try to get their economies going again. Those monetary pol- icy battles were fought and lost in Ireland, Spain and Portugal already (not quite sure what the Italians are doing). Mark the moment: the past 5 years have been a global science fair project to figure out the absolute limits of monetary policy in a recession. Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from as much of the data series as is available). Subscription Info For a FREE subscription to this monthly re- port, please visit sign up at our website: www.lairdresearch.com Laird Research, June 11, 2015 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 3
  4. 4. Indicators for US Economy Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked (both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per- mit indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about their own financial situation and the economy in general). Red dots are points where a new trend has started. Leading Index for the US Index:Est.6monthgrowth −3−10123 median: 1.38 Apr 2015: 1.12 Growth Contraction Initial Unemployment Claims 1000'sofClaimsperWeek 200400600 median: 350.25 Jun 2015: 278.75 Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked Hours 394041424344 median: 40.60 May 2015: 41.80 ISM Manfacturing − PMI Index:SteadyState=50 3040506070 median: 53.40 May 2015: 52.80 expanding economy contracting economy Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods BillionsofDollars 150200250300 median: 183.82 Apr 2015: 234.39 Index of Truck Tonnage TruckTonnageIndex 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 100120 median: 112.70 Mar 2015: 134.80 Capex (ex. Defense & Planes) Percentchange(3months) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −15−50510 median: 1.29 Apr 2015: −3.81 Chicago Fed National Activity Index IndexValue 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −4−202 median: 0.075 Apr 2015: −0.15 U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index1966Q1=100 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 507090110 median: 88.40 May 2015: 90.70 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 4
  5. 5. Global Financial Markets Global Stock Market Returns Country Index Name Close Date Current Value Weekly Change Monthly Change 3 month Change Yearly Change Corr to S&P500 Corr to TSX North America USA S&P 500 Jun 11 2,108.9 0.6% I 0.2% I 3.4% I 8.5% I 1.00 0.70 USA NASDAQ Composite Jun 11 5,082.5 0.5% I 1.8% I 4.8% I 17.3% I 0.93 0.65 USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Jun 11 22,310.0 0.7% I 0.4% I 3.3% I 8.2% I 1.00 0.71 Canada S&P TSX Jun 11 14,830.9 -1.3% J -2.1% J 0.6% I -0.4% J 0.70 1.00 Europe and Russia France CAC 40 Jun 11 4,971.4 -0.3% J -1.1% J -0.5% J 9.1% I 0.48 0.48 Germany DAX Jun 11 11,332.8 -0.1% J -2.9% J -4.0% J 13.9% I 0.46 0.39 United Kingdom FTSE Jun 11 6,846.7 -0.2% J -2.6% J 1.9% I 0.1% I 0.57 0.53 Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Jun 11 18.4 4.1% I -9.3% J 11.4% I -27.9% J 0.39 0.49 Asia Taiwan TSEC weighted index Jun 11 9,302.5 -0.5% J -3.7% J -2.3% J 0.8% I 0.13 0.09 China Shanghai Composite Index Jun 05 5,023.1 2.3% I 16.9% I 54.6% I 146.1% I 0.03 -0.03 Japan NIKKEI 225 Jun 11 20,383.0 -0.5% J 3.9% I 8.9% I 35.3% I -0.10 -0.07 Hong Kong Hang Seng Jun 11 26,907.8 -2.3% J -2.9% J 13.4% I 15.7% I 0.08 0.12 Korea Kospi Jun 11 2,056.6 -0.8% J -1.9% J 3.8% I 2.1% I -0.20 -0.08 South Asia and Austrailia India Bombay Stock Exchange Jun 11 26,371.0 -1.7% J -4.1% J -8.0% J 3.5% I 0.21 0.23 Indonesia Jakarta Jun 11 4,928.8 -3.3% J -4.7% J -9.1% J -0.9% J -0.01 0.04 Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Jun 11 1,734.8 -0.4% J -3.9% J -2.4% J -7.6% J 0.03 0.14 Australia All Ordinaries Jun 11 5,562.6 0.9% I -1.2% J -3.5% J 2.4% I 0.03 0.10 New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Jun 11 5,858.4 -0.1% J 1.9% I -0.1% J 13.1% I -0.27 -0.18 South America Brasil IBOVESPA Jun 11 53,689.0 1.4% I -6.1% J 9.8% I -2.6% J 0.42 0.46 Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Jun 11 11,363.9 1.0% I -6.1% J 12.2% I 40.7% I 0.35 0.42 Mexico Bolsa index Jun 11 44,624.7 0.1% I -1.2% J 3.2% I 3.9% I 0.56 0.44 MENA and Africa Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Jun 11 51.8 -2.9% J -3.1% J -11.6% J -22.7% J 0.18 0.26 (Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Jun 11 27.5 -1.5% J -1.4% J 2.9% I -13.0% J 0.33 0.37 South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Jun 11 63.6 2.9% I -6.5% J -0.5% J -5.5% J 0.61 0.51 (Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Jun 11 24.9 -0.8% J -5.6% J 0.6% I -22.7% J 0.41 0.39 Commodities USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Jun 08 $58.1 -3.5% J -2.1% J 16.4% I -44.7% J 0.08 0.21 USD Gold LME Spot Jun 11 $1,180.5 -0.2% J -0.4% J 1.9% I -6.5% J 0.06 0.14 Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days. www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 5
  6. 6. S&P 500 Composite Index The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua- tion level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2) a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn- ings over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P. S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months) Percent 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Percent Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q1/15: 10.7% Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q1/15: 8.6% S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices) 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 −5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 Tech Bubble Japanese Asset Bubble House BubbleAsian Financial Crisis US Financial Crisis Eurozone crisis Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II Gulf War Savings and Loans Crisis High Inflation Period Afganistan/Iraq WarVietnam War Reported Earnings Operating Earnings Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 Multiple Multiple 12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Jun = 21.3) 10−year CAPE ( median = 19.5, Jun = 26.1) www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 6
  7. 7. S&P 500 Composite Distributions This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com- panies. The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to their industry group. AAPL +0.14% MSFT −4.6% GOOG −0.61% FB +3.6% ORCL −0.2% V +5.9% IBM −2.1% INTC −4% CSCO −0.93% QCOM MA +3.6% EBAY ACN HPQ TXN CRM NFLX ADBE ADP CTSH YHOO INTU TEL MU ADI EA ADS FIS STX XRX WU BRK−A −1.8% WFC +4.5% JPM +7.7% BAC +8.6% C +6.5% GS AIG AXP USB MS MET BLK SPG PNC BK COF PRU AMT ACE CME STT PSA TRV MMC BEN BBT MHFI ICE ALL CCI AFL DFS HCN GGP STI CB BXP VNO IVZ MTB WY PGR L RF XL O JNJ −0.89% PFE +2% GILD +13% MRK −1.6% AMGN −1.5% ACT +4.2% UNH +5.4% BMY +1.8% ABBV +5.8% MDT +0.82% BIIB LLY CELG ABT ESRX MCK TMO REGN AET BAX SYK MYL CI HCA ALXN HUM VRTX CAH BDX PRGO ZTS ZMH ISRG MNK A UHS LH AMZN +2.4% DIS +0.09% CMCSA +0.6% HD +1.6% MCD −2.3% NKE +3.1% SBUX +4.7% TWX +1.2% FOXA LOW PCLN F GM TGT TWC +14% DTV TJX YUM CCL JCI CBS VIAB DLPH LB M DG ORLY MAR ROST CMG OMC UA HOT JWN GPC HBI TIF RL SNI IPG GE +0.73% UTX MMM +1.4% BA UPS UNP HON DHR LMT CAT FDX GD EMR ITW CSX DAL RTN DE LUV WM IR ROP APH TYC ROK PH AME LLL URI WMT −6.6% PG −1.1% KO −2% PEP −1.5% PM −1.4% CVS +2.2% MO WBA MDLZ COST CL KMB RAI KR EL GIS ADM LO STZ K MJN CAG HRL CPB XOM −4.2% CVX −7.3% SLB −2.5% KMI −7.8% COP OXY −2% EOG APC PSX HAL BHI DVN PXD SE APA HES NBL DD DOW MON LYB PX ECL APD SHW IP FCX SIAL NUE CF AA VMC DUK NEE D SO EIX ED ES NI FE VZ −5.3% T +1.3% Information Technology Financials Health Care Consumer Discretionary Industrials Consumer Staples Energy Materials Utilities Telecommunications Services <−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0% % Change in Price from May 1, 2015 to Jun 11, 2015 Average Median Median Median Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E Health Care 3.8% I 3.7 4.1 27.4 Financials 3.1% I 3.2 1.6 18.7 Consumer Discretionary 0.5% I 1.8 4.3 21.1 Information Technology 0.4% I 3.6 4.6 22.1 Industrials -0.1% J 1.6 3.7 19.5 Average Median Median Median Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E Materials -1.4% J 1.6 4.4 24.5 Consumer Staples -1.6% J 2.3 6.0 25.2 Telecommunications Services -2.6% J 1.4 2.1 31.4 Utilities -4.3% J 1.5 1.6 17.1 Energy -6.7% J 1.7 1.6 14.3 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 7
  8. 8. US Equity Valuations A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famously follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly (93%) correlated to Tobin’s q. We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es- timated earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10 year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under- standing the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of risk-aversion in the market. Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 Buying assets at a discount Paying up for growth Tobin Q (median = 0.76, Mar = 1.06) S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.33, Mar = 1.80) Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury) 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, May = 4.7%) Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, May = 2.8%) www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 8
  9. 9. US Mutual Fund Flows Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investors entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s from mutual funds. US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds US$billions(monthly) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 −40−2002040 Domestic Equity World Equity Taxable Bonds Municipal Bonds US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds US$billions(Monthly) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 −60−40−200204060 Flows to Equity Flows to Bonds Net Market Flows www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 9
  10. 10. US Key Interest Rates Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financial system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding, the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates. Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most of the time). For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates (i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen- ing. US Treasury Yield Curves ForwardInstantaneousRates(%) 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Jun 10, 2015 (Today) May 11, 2015 (1 mo ago) Mar 10, 2015 (3 mo ago) 10 Jun 2014 (1 yr ago) 3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 10 Yr Treasury 3 Mo Treasury Spread AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Percent AAA BAA 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 median: 91.00 Jun 2015: 91.00 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 Spread(bps) LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Percent 3 mos t−bill LIBOR 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 median: 36.53 Jun 2015: 25.89 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 Spread(bps) www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 10
  11. 11. US Inflation Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase. Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex- pectations by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected 5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that. Consumer Price Index Percent 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 −1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% −1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% US Inflation Rate YoY% (Apr = −0.11%) US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Apr = 1.8%) Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent(YearoverYear) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −10123456 PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Apr = 0.12%) PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Apr = 1.2%) 5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate Percent 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 −10123456 5 year forward Inflation Expectation Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure) Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure) www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 11
  12. 12. QE Taper Tracker The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro- vide monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor- gage backed securites and other debt from banks. The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be decreased (yield ≈ coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates. In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013. The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover- ing enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”). The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less than 6.5%. In Oct 2014, they announced the end of purchases. QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury & Mortgage Backed Securities) Trillions 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 TaperTreasuries Mortgage Backed Securities Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities) Billions −100 −50 0 50 100 150 200 −100 −50 0 50 100 150 200 Month to date Jun 10: $0.2 Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets Percent 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Target Unemployment 6.5% Target Inflation 2% U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields Percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Short Term Rates: Once at zero, Fed moved to QE Long Term Rates: Moving up in anticipation of Taper? www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 12
  13. 13. Exchange Rates 10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.620.710.810.901.001.09 USA/CAD 0.550.610.660.720.770.82 Euro/CAD 59.1674.7190.26105.81121.36136.91 Japan/CAD 0.380.440.490.550.610.67 U.K./CAD 0.590.991.391.792.192.58 Brazil/CAD CAD Appreciating CAD Depreciating Change in F/X: May 1 2015 to Jun 5 2015 (Trade Weighted Currency Index of USD Trading Partners) −3.0% −1.5% 1.5% 3.0% Euro −0.7% UK −2.3% Japan 2.9% South Korea 2.2% China 0.3% India −1.3% Brazil 3.3% Mexico 1.9% Canada 0.9% USA 1.5% Country vs. Average Appreciating Depreciating % Change over 3 months vs. Canada <−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% >10.0% CAD depreciatingCAD appreciating ARG −5.7% AUS −1.8% BRA −1.7% CHN −2.2% IND −5.0% RUS 8.7% USA −2.8% EUR 2.0% JPY −3.8% KRW 0.0% MXN −2.6% ZAR −4.1% www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 13
  14. 14. US Banking Indicators The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac- erbating factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss reserves and actual deliquency rates). US Banks Net Interest Margin Percent 3.03.54.04.5 median: 3.94 2015 Q1: 2.95 Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve BillionsofDollars 0100300500 median: 55.62 Jun 2015: 226.20 Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B Percent 051015 median: 12.82 2015 Q1: 9.50 Consumer Credit Outstanding %YearlyChange −505101520 median: 7.62 Apr 2015: 6.63 Total Business Loans %YearlyChange −2001020 median: 8.57 Apr 2015: 12.10 US Nonperforming Loans Percent 12345 median: 2.26 2015 Q1: 1.83 St. Louis Financial Stress Index Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0246 median: 0.069 Jun 2015: −1.03 Commercial Paper Outstanding TrillionsofDollars 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1.01.41.82.2 median: 1.34 Jun 2015: 0.97 Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 246810 median: 2.31 2015 Q1: 6.14 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 14
  15. 15. US Employment Indicators Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes are another way to track the change in unemployment rate. Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or not) - this is the Participation Rate. The Beveridge Curve measures labour market efficiency by looking at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate. The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy- ment occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies. Unemployment Rate Percent 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 median: 6.20 May 2015: 5.50 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Percent 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2.02.53.03.54.0 Beveridge Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings) Unemployment Rate (%) JobOpenings(%totalEmployment) Dec 2000 − Dec 2008 Jan 2009 − Mar 2015 Apr 2015 Participation Rate Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 6364656667 median: 66.00 May 2015: 62.90 Total Nonfarm Payroll Change MonthlyChange(000s) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −5000500 median: 164.00 May 2015: 280.00 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 15
  16. 16. There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ- ment. The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want a full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary help demand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack. The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev- els over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay. Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobs is generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery. Median Duration of Unemployment Weeks 510152025 median: 8.70 May 2015: 11.60 (U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached Percent 810121416 median: 9.70 May 2015: 10.80 4−week moving average of Initial Claims Jan1995=100 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 50100150200 median: 107.69 Jun 2015: 85.70 Unemployed over 27 weeks MillionsofPersons 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 01234567 median: 0.79 May 2015: 2.50 Services: Temp Help MillionsofPersons 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1.52.02.5 median: 2.25 May 2015: 2.90 0 200 400 600 15 20 25 30 35 40 Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers) Averagewages($/hour) Private Industry Employment Change (May 2014 − May 2015) Construction Durable Goods Education Financial Activities Health Services Information Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Mining and Logging Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Retail Trade Transportation Utilities Wholesale Trade Circle size relative to total employees in industry www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 16
  17. 17. US Business Activity Indicators Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non- manufacturing activity. We are focusing on forward looking business indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the current business environment. Manufacturing Sector: Real Output YoYPercentChange −1001020 median: 6.22 2015 Q1: 9.12 ISM Manufacturing − PMI Index 3040506070 May 2015: 52.80 manufac. expanding manufac. contracting ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index Index 304050607080 May 2015: 55.80 Increase in new orders Decrease in new orders Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods BillionsofDollars 40506070 median: 57.72 Apr 2015: 68.33 Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing Hours 3940414243 median: 41.10 May 2015: 41.80 Industrial Production: Manufacturing YoYPercentChange −15−50510 median: 3.32 Apr 2015: 2.56 Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio Ratio 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1.11.21.31.41.51.6 median: 1.36 Apr 2015: 1.36 Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders & Inventory Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −0.50.00.5 Apr 2015: 0.00 Above ave growth Below ave growth ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 35455565 May 2015: 59.50 Growth Contraction www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 17
  18. 18. US Consumption Indicators Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec- tations about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods. U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index1966Q1=100 5060708090110 median: 88.40 May 2015: 90.70 Consumer Loans (All banks) YoY%Change −10010203040 median: 7.71 Apr 2015: 4.63 Accounting Change Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans Percent 2.03.04.0 median: 3.47 2015 Q1: 2.00 New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods YoY%Change −20020 median: 4.08 Apr 2015: 6.06 New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods YoY%Change −2001020 median: 4.24 Apr 2015: −12.98 Personal Consumption & Housing Index Index −0.40.00.20.4 median: 0.02 Apr 2015: −0.06above ave growth below ave growth Light Cars and Trucks Sales MillionsofUnits 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 10121416182022 median: 14.80 May 2015: 17.71 Personal Saving Rate Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 246810 median: 5.60 Apr 2015: 5.60 Real Retail and Food Services Sales YoY%Change 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −10−505 median: 2.51 Apr 2015: 1.63 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 18
  19. 19. US Housing Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how- ever a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val- ues directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing market. 15 20 25 30 35 150200250300 Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values) NewHomePrice(000's) Disposable Income Per Capita (000's) Apr 2015 r2 : 89.4% Range: Jan 1959 − Apr 2015 Blue dots > +5% change in next year Red dots < −5% change in next year New Housing Units Permits Authorized MillionsofUnits 0.51.01.52.02.5 median: 1.35 Apr 2015: 1.14 New Home Median Sale Price SalePrice$000's 100150200250300 Apr 2015: 297.30 Homeowner's Equity Level Percent 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 4050607080 median: 66.47 2015 Q1: 55.60 New Homes: Median Months on the Market Months 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 468101214 median: 5.00 Apr 2015: 4.00 US Monthly Supply of Homes MonthsSupply 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 4681012 median: 5.90 Apr 2015: 4.80 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 19
  20. 20. US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener- ates a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame. The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start of the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009 for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess smoother. Change from 2007 Peak − Q1 2015 −50% −40% −30% −20% −10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Today's Home Prices Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak Frequency −75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75% Year over Year Change − Q1 2015 −10% −8% −6% −4% −2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% YoY Change in this quarter YoY Percent Change Frequency −15% −10% −5% 0% 5% 10% 15% www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 20
  21. 21. Global Housing The Bank for International Settlements has begun collecting global housing indicies, which are useful for showing what has been happening with global house prices. Note that these are not all the same data set - each country measures housing prices in slightly different ways, so they are only broadly comparable. Black lines are the data series, blue bars on the right axis show the year over year percent change. Brazil − Metro All Dwellings Q12011=100 6080100140 Jan 2015: 148.01 Chile − All Dwellings Dec 2013: 127.12 Peru (Lima) − All Dwellings Dec 2014: 177.50 −4002040 Mexico − All Dwellings Q12011=100 6080100140 Dec 2014: 118.60 China (Beijing) − All Dwellings Mar 2015: 119.13 Hong Kong − Residential Prices Feb 2015: 163.06 −4002040 Indonesia − Major Cities housing Q12011=100 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 6080100140 Dec 2014: 130.00 India − Major Cities housing 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Dec 2014: 185.55 Singapore − All Dwellings 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Mar 2015: 102.25 −4002040 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 21
  22. 22. Philippines (Manila) − Flats Q12011=100 6080120 Dec 2014: 139.96 Japan − All Dwellings Dec 2014: 102.50 Australia − All Dwellings Dec 2014: 117.14 −4002040 New Zealand − All Dwellings Big Cities Q12011=100 6080120 Dec 2014: 134.35 Turkey − All Dwellings Feb 2015: 167.95 South Africa − Residential Apr 2015: 108.62 −4002040 Israel − All Dwellings Q12011=100 6080120 Jan 2015: 125.57 Korea − All Dwellings Mar 2015: 109.77 Russia − All Dwellings (Urban) Dec 2014: 125.83 −4002040 Euro zone − All Dwellings Q12011=100 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 6080120 Dec 2014: 96.99 Canada − New Houses 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Feb 2015: 107.87 US − New Single Family Houses 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Dec 2014: 127.21 −4002040 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 22
  23. 23. Global Business Indicators Global Manufacturing PMI Reports The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflecting purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read- ing of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av- erage of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to show a global average. Global M−PMI − May 2015 <40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 >60.0 Steady ExpandingContracting Eurozone 52.5 Global PMI 51.2 TWN 49.3MEX 53.3 KOR 47.8 JPN 50.9 VNM 54.8 IDN 47.1 ZAF 50.1 AUS 52.3 BRA 45.9 CAN 49.8 CHN 49.2 IND 52.6 RUS 47.6 SAU 57.0 USA 54.0 Global M−PMI Monthly Change <−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0 PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating Eurozone 0.5 Global PMI 0.2 TWN 0.1MEX −0.5 KOR −1.0 JPN 1.0 VNM 1.3 IDN 0.4 ZAF −1.4 AUS 4.3 BRA −0.1 CAN 0.8 CHN 0.3 IND 1.3 RUS −1.3 SAU −1.3 USA −0.1 Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 3040506070 3040506070 Business Conditions Contracting Business Conditions Expanding www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 23
  24. 24. Global Manufacturing PMI Chart This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we look at all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch their evolution over time. Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) while green numbers indicate expansion. May13 Jun13 Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 May14 Jun14 Jul14 Aug14 Sep14 Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Feb15 Mar15 Apr15 May15 Australia India Indonesia Viet Nam Taiwan China Korea Japan South Africa Saudi Arabia Turkey Russia United Kingdom Greece Germany France Italy Czech Republic Spain Poland Ireland Netherlands Eurozone Brazil Mexico Canada United States Global PMI 50.6 50.6 50.8 51.6 51.8 52.1 53.1 53.3 53.0 53.2 52.4 51.9 52.2 52.6 52.4 52.6 52.2 52.2 51.8 51.6 51.7 52.0 51.7 51.0 51.2 52.3 52.0 53.7 53.1 52.8 51.8 54.7 55.0 53.7 57.1 55.5 55.4 56.4 57.3 55.8 57.9 57.5 55.9 54.8 53.9 53.9 55.1 55.7 54.1 54.0 53.2 52.4 52.0 52.1 54.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 51.7 52.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 53.5 54.3 54.8 53.5 55.3 55.3 53.9 51.0 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.8 51.7 51.3 49.7 50.8 50.0 50.2 51.9 52.6 54.0 52.0 51.7 51.8 51.9 51.8 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.3 54.3 55.3 56.6 54.4 53.8 53.8 53.3 50.4 50.4 48.5 49.4 49.9 50.2 49.7 50.5 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.3 48.8 48.7 49.1 50.2 49.3 49.1 48.7 50.2 50.7 49.6 46.2 46.0 45.9 48.3 48.8 50.3 51.4 51.1 51.3 51.6 52.7 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.4 52.2 51.8 51.8 50.7 50.3 50.6 50.1 50.6 51.0 51.0 52.2 52.0 52.5 48.7 48.8 50.8 53.5 55.8 54.4 56.8 57.0 54.8 55.2 53.7 53.4 53.6 52.3 53.5 51.7 52.2 53.0 54.6 53.6 54.1 52.2 52.5 54.0 55.5 49.7 50.3 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.9 52.4 53.5 52.8 52.9 55.5 56.1 55.0 55.3 55.4 57.3 55.7 56.6 56.2 56.9 55.1 57.5 56.8 55.8 57.1 48.0 49.3 51.1 52.6 53.1 53.4 54.4 53.2 55.4 55.9 54.0 52.0 50.8 50.3 49.4 49.0 49.5 51.2 53.2 52.8 55.2 55.1 54.8 54.0 52.4 48.1 50.0 49.8 51.1 50.7 50.9 48.6 50.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 52.7 52.9 54.6 53.9 52.8 52.6 52.6 54.7 53.8 54.7 54.2 54.3 54.2 55.8 50.1 51.0 52.0 53.9 53.4 54.5 55.4 54.7 55.9 56.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 54.7 56.5 54.3 55.6 54.4 55.6 53.3 56.1 55.6 56.1 54.7 55.5 47.3 49.1 50.4 51.3 50.8 50.7 51.4 53.3 53.1 52.3 52.4 54.0 53.2 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7 49.0 49.0 48.4 49.9 51.9 53.3 53.8 54.8 46.4 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.1 48.4 47.0 49.3 49.7 52.1 51.2 49.6 48.2 47.8 46.9 48.8 48.5 48.4 47.5 49.2 47.6 48.8 48.0 49.4 49.4 48.6 50.7 51.8 51.1 51.7 52.7 54.3 56.5 54.8 53.7 54.1 52.3 52.0 52.4 51.4 49.9 51.4 49.5 51.2 50.9 51.1 52.8 52.1 51.1 45.3 45.4 47.0 48.7 47.5 47.3 49.2 49.6 51.2 51.3 49.7 51.1 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.4 48.3 48.4 48.9 46.5 48.0 51.3 52.9 54.8 57.2 56.3 56.5 58.4 57.3 56.7 56.2 55.3 57.3 57.0 57.5 55.4 52.5 51.6 53.2 53.5 52.5 53.1 54.1 54.4 51.9 52.0 50.4 51.7 49.2 49.4 49.4 51.8 49.4 48.8 48.0 48.5 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.1 51.0 51.0 50.4 50.3 51.7 48.9 47.6 49.7 48.1 48.9 47.6 51.1 51.2 49.8 50.9 54.0 53.3 55.0 53.5 52.7 53.4 51.7 51.1 50.1 48.8 48.5 50.3 50.4 51.5 52.2 51.4 49.8 49.6 48.0 48.5 50.2 57.3 56.6 56.6 57.5 58.7 56.7 57.1 58.7 59.7 58.6 57.0 58.5 57.0 59.2 60.1 60.7 61.8 59.1 57.6 57.9 57.8 58.5 60.1 58.3 57.0 50.4 51.6 52.2 56.5 49.1 51.5 51.6 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 47.4 44.3 46.6 45.9 49.0 50.7 52.7 50.5 50.2 49.8 50.0 51.6 51.5 50.1 51.5 52.3 50.7 52.2 52.5 54.2 55.1 55.2 56.6 55.5 53.9 49.4 49.9 51.5 50.5 52.5 51.7 52.4 52.0 52.0 52.2 51.6 50.3 49.9 50.9 51.1 49.4 47.2 47.5 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.8 50.9 49.8 50.4 50.2 49.5 48.4 49.3 50.3 48.8 48.7 49.0 49.9 51.1 51.1 49.2 48.8 47.8 49.2 48.2 47.7 50.1 50.2 50.9 50.8 50.5 49.5 48.5 48.0 48.1 49.4 50.7 51.7 50.2 50.2 50.4 50.0 49.6 49.7 50.7 49.6 48.9 49.2 47.1 49.5 48.6 50.0 52.0 53.0 53.4 55.2 55.5 54.7 52.7 52.3 52.4 54.0 55.8 56.1 53.3 52.0 51.4 50.0 51.7 52.1 51.0 49.2 49.3 48.8 46.4 48.5 49.4 51.5 51.5 50.3 51.8 52.1 51.0 51.3 53.1 52.5 52.3 51.7 50.3 51.7 51.0 52.1 52.7 51.5 51.7 50.7 53.5 54.8 51.6 51.0 50.7 48.5 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7 49.2 48.0 47.6 48.5 47.5 46.4 46.7 47.1 50.1 50.3 50.1 48.5 49.6 49.6 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6 53.3 54.5 52.9 51.2 52.1 51.3 52.6 43.8 49.6 42.0 46.4 51.7 53.2 47.7 47.6 46.7 48.6 47.9 44.8 49.2 48.9 50.7 47.3 46.5 49.4 50.1 46.9 49.0 45.4 46.3 48.0 52.3 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 24
  25. 25. OECD International Trade Data The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun- tries. Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of US dollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports. Green lines indicate the zero level. The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and imports on a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the difference between exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal- ance) China (Mar 2015) YoYChange −40 −20 0 20 40 60 80 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 20 40 60 80 100 US (Feb 2015) YoYChange −60 −40 −20 0 20 40 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −60 −40 −20 0 Canada (Dec 2014) YoYChange −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −2 0 2 4 6 Germany (Feb 2015) YoYChange −40 −20 0 20 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Japan (Feb 2015)YoYChange −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 South Korea (Feb 2015) YoYChange −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −4 −2 0 2 4 6 8 10 India (Feb 2015) YoYChange −10 −5 0 5 10 15 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −15 −10 −5 0 Australia (Jan 2015) YoYChange −6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 Eurozone (Nov 2013) YoYChange −80 −60 −40 −20 0 20 40 Balance 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −10 0 10 20 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 25
  26. 26. Canadian Indicators Retail Trade (SA) YoYPercentChange −50510 median: 4.70 Mar 2015: 3.08 Total Manufacturing Sales Growth YoYPercentGrowth −2001020 median: 4.14 Mar 2015: 0.26 Manufacturing New Orders Growth YoYPercentGrowth −30−100102030 median: 4.54 Mar 2015: 1.47 10yr Government Bond Yields 0246810 median: 5.75 May 2015: 1.67 Manufacturing PMI 49515355 May 2015: 49.80 Sales and New Orders (SA) YoYPercentChange −2001020 Sales New Orders (smoothed) Tbill Yield Spread (10 yr − 3mo) Spread(Percent) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −101234 median: 1.33 May 2015: 1.04 Inflation (total and core) YoYPercentChange 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −101234 median: 1.93 Apr 2015: 0.80 Total Core Inventory to Sales Ratio (SA) Ratio 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1.31.41.51.6 median: 1.35 Mar 2015: 1.41 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 26
  27. 27. 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 1.31.41.51.61.71.81.9 Beveridge Curve (Mar 2011 − Feb 2015) as.numeric(can.bev$ui.rate) as.numeric(can.bev$vacancies) Mar 2011 − Dec 2012 Jan 2013 − Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Unemployment Rate JobVacancyrate(Industrial) Ownership/Rental Price Ratio RatioofAccomodationOwnership/RentRatio 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 90100110120130140150 Calgary Montreal Vancouver Toronto Note: Using prices relative to 2002 as base year Ownership relatively more expensive vs 2002 Rent relatively more expensive vs 2002 Unemployment Rate (SA) Percent 345678910 Canada 6.8% Alberta 5.8% Ontario 6.5% Debt Service Ratios (SA) Percent 46810 Total Debt: 6.7% Mortgage: 3.4% Consumer Debt: 6.4% Housing Starts and Building Permits (smoothed) YoYPercentChange 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −40−2002040 Permits Starts www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 27
  28. 28. European Indicators Unemployment Rates Percentage 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 051015202530 Business Employment Expectations Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −40−20010 Industrial Orderbook Levels Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −60−40−20020 Country Employment Expect. Unempl. (%) Bond Yields (%) Retail Turnover Manufacturing Turnover Inflation (YoY %) Industry Orderbook PMI Series Dates May 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 May 2015 France -10.9 I 10.5 K 0.44 J 104.7 I 109.5 I 0.1 I -18.5 J 49.4 I Germany 1.5 I 4.7 K 0.12 J NA 115.9 I 0.3 -8.0 J 51.1 J United Kingdom 4.8 I 5.4 K 1.65 I 113.0 I NA 0.0 K -1.0 J 52.0 I Italy -0.4 I 12.4 J 1.36 I 100.0 I NA -0.1 J -10.9 J 54.8 I Greece -0.6 I 25.6 K 12.00 I NA NA -1.8 I -27.4 I 48.0 I Spain 2.4 J 22.7 J 1.31 I NA NA -0.7 I -1.9 I 55.8 I Eurozone (EU28) -0.4 I 9.7 K 1.26 J 106.2 I 109.5 I -0.1 I -10.7 J NA www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 28
  29. 29. Government Bond YieldsLongTermYields% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0246810 Economic Sentiment Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 60708090110130 Consumer Confidence Index 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −100−60−20020 Inflation (Harmonized Prices) 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 median: 1.90 Mar 2015: −0.10−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Euro Area US Harmonized Inflation: Mar 2015 AUT 0.9% BGR −0.9% DEU 0.3% ESP −0.7% FIN −0.1% FRA 0.1% GBR 0.0% GRC −1.8% HRV −0.1% HUN 0.0% IRL −0.4% ISL −0.3% ITA −0.1% NOR 1.8% POL −0.9% ROU 0.6% SWE 0.5% <−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% >7.0% YoY % Change in Prices PMI: May 2015 <40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0>60.0 Steady ExpandingContracting BRA 45.9 CAN 49.8 DEU 51.1 ESP 55.8 FRA 49.4 GBR 52.0 GRC 48.0 IRL 57.1 ITA 54.8 MEX 53.3 POL 52.4 SAU 57.0 TUR 50.2 USA 54.0 RUS 47.6 PMI Change: Apr − May <−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0 PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating CAN 0.8 DEU −1.0 ESP 1.6 FRA 1.4 GBR 0.1 GRC 1.5 IRL 1.3 ITA 1.0 POL −1.6 TUR 1.7 USA −0.1 RUS −1.3 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 29
  30. 30. Chinese Indicators Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Fi- nancial Times, Premier Li Keqiang confided to US officials in 2007 that gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In- stead, he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter- native indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI - which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai Composite Index as a measure of stock performance. Manufacturing PMI 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 4045505560 May 2015: 49.20 Shanghai Composite Index IndexValue(MonthlyHigh/Low) 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 0100030005000 Jun 2015: 5023.10 Electricity Generated 100MillionKWH(logscale) 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1000200030005000 Apr 2015: 4450.00 Electricity Generated Long Term Trend Short Term Average Consumer Confidence Index Index 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 98100102104106108110 median: 103.70 Apr 2015: 107.60 Exports YoYPercentChange 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 −20020406080 median: 18.60 May 2015: −2.50 Retail Sales Growth YoYPercentChange 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 101520 median: 13.00 May 2015: 10.10 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 30
  31. 31. Global Climate Change Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly from the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference from the average value over the period from 1961-1990 for precipitation and 1971-2000 for temperature. Average Temperature Anomalies from Nov 2014 - Apr 2015 <−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 >4.0 Anomalies in Celcius WarmerCooler Anomalies in Celcius −4 −2 0 2 4 Average 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from Oct 2014 - Mar 2015 <−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 >40.0 Anomalies in millimeters WetterDrier Anomalies in millimeters −40 −20 0 20 40 www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015 Page 31

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