SET UP VIDEO (Jim?): Group in Toronto, Canada, Pathways to Education. Short news report on the organization and its impact. As you watch, what outcomes were noted in the clip?SHOW VIDEOOUTCOMES NOTED:Drop out rate for Canada decreasingBaseline: 43% drop out of schoolProgram linked to falling crime rate and pregnancy rateProgram participants 4X more likely to seek higher educationWas it an effective news report for the program? Why?—combined stories with outcome data GROUP DISCUSSION
Ask group: Why measure outcomes? What are the benefits of measuring outcomes? WRITE RESPONSES ON FLIP CHART(ADD AS NEEDED)To see if programs really make a difference in the lives of people Being able to demonstrate that your organization’s efforts are making a difference can lead to:Ability to recruit and retain staffAbility to enlist and motivate volunteersAttract new participantsEngage collaboratorsGain support for innovative effortsRetain or increase fundingGain favorable public recognitionTo help improve servicesResults from outcome measurement show not only where services are effective but also where outcomes are not happening as expected. In that case, managers can use outcome data to:Strengthen existing servicesTarget effective services for expansionIdentify staff and training needsDevelop and justify budgetsPrepare long-range plansFocus board on key issues
ASK: What are the costs of measuring outcomes? Why would some individuals, groups, organizations hesitant to measure outcomes?“Just too hard to measure for our organization”“We don’t have time and staff to do it”“Can’t really quantify what we do—evangelism”“Some important things can’t be measured”“Those are the world’s measures—not God’s measures” “It’s just another exercise. We’ll probably never use it.” “We’re doing just fine the way we are—donors, staff, and volunteers understand what we do well enough.”SAY: Let’s pick 2-3 of these and briefly discuss how you might answer the concern if it were raised in your organization?
Let’s start building your logic model by looking at the problem statement and goal:Problem statement: a description of the problem that a program seeks to solve. Programs are created to address particular problems or needs. The first step in creating a logic model for a program is to state the problem that frames a particular challenge for the population your program will serve. As we discussed, you can develop a logic model for your whole organization or for individual programs within your organization. For the purpose of this workshop, it may be easier for you to start with one program within your organization. Example: RCEThink about the program that you want to focus on for this workshop: Write it down on your logic model worksheet.
Your problem statement for your program should briefly explain what needs to change: why is there is a need for your program’s involvement or intervention? Your problem statement answers the question, “What community problem/issue/situation does my program address/solve?” Include “who, what, why, where” in your statement, as much as possible.
Some examples of problem statements from organizations. The first is a recovery ministry in Washington, DC.Who: homeless individualsWhat unable to sustain sobriety, employment, and housingWhy: addicted to drugs and alcoholWhere: Washington, DC
Who: urban youthWhat: at-risk academically, socially, spirituallyWhy: lack support and resourcesWhere: Knoxville, TN
Who: disabled childrenWhat: abandoned to state institutionsWhy: their disabilityWhere: Romania Take a moment and write down a possible problem statement for the program you chose to focus on for this workshop. Again, your problem statement should answer: “What community problem/issue/situation does my program address/solve?” Include “who, what, why, where” in your statement, as much as possible.
The goal answers the question: What are you trying to accomplish over the life of the program? It’s the intended aim or long-term impact of the program.The answer to this question is the solution to your problem statement, and will serve as your program goal. Goals serve as a frame for all elements of the logic model that follow. They reflect organizational priorities and help you steer a clear direction for future action.Goals should: Include the intended results—in general terms—of the program or initiative.Specify the target population you intend to serve.
So, for the recovery ministry, their goal is:
For the urban youth ministry:
The urban ministry has a variety of programs: afterschool tutoring, year-round sports programs, etc. Here’s a stated goal for their afterschool tutoring program.
For the Romanian ministry …. -----------Developing and describing your goal is key. All logic model components should be connected to your goal. It’s essential to develop a clear goal statement which can help you fight the temptation to implement an interesting program that doesn’t really “fit.” Be sure your goal is phrased in terms you want to achieve over the life of your program, rather than a summary of the services you are going to provide. Don’t make your statement so broad and general that it provides no guidance for your program. Take a few minutes and draft a goal statement for your program. At your table, share your problem and goal statements and get feedback from others.[AFTER 7 MINUTES. ASK FOR FEEDBACK FROM THE GROUP]
Outcomes express the results that your program intends to achieve if implemented as planned. Outcomes are the changes that occur or the difference that is made for individuals, groups, families, organizations, systems, or communities during or after the program. Outcomes answer the questions: “What difference does the program make? What does success look like?” They reflect the core achievements you are hoping for, aiming for, expecting for your program. These may be the most challenging aspect of developing your logic model.
Outcome statements clarify who or what will experience the intended change/s Who: individuals or clients (children are better prepared for school/to graduate from high school; homeless individuals with addictions maintain sobriety); families or communities (better communication among family members, decreased community violence, increased community participation); systemic (government, policies, better coordination among agencies); organizational (more efficient, increased staff motivation)Write outcome statements in terms of CHANGE: changes in learning, action, or conditionChanges in Learning: New knowledgeIncreased skillsChanged attitudes, opinions, or valuesChanged motivation or aspirationsFor example: Participating children in the urban ministry afterschool tutoring program will increase their literacy rates to attain grade-level reading skillsChanges in Action:Modified behavior or practice Changed decisionsChanged policiesFor example: 70% of participating individuals in the homeless recovery program will maintain long-term sobrietyChanges in Condition: HumanEconomicCivicEnvironmentFor example: 80% of eligible children will be placed in loving RO families
Goals can be the place for vision—Outcomes should be realistic results that your program can be seen to be responsible for in a significant wayFor example, the afterschool program is working to increase literacy rates of participating children and to help them develop proficiency in reading. They believe that it is within their sphere of influence. But it shouldn’t set as outcomes that it will increase grades as there are too many factors (family, culture, school environment, community, economic) for this one program to address or claim responsibility for.
Not all outcomes will occur at the same time. Some outcomes must occur before the achievement of other outcomes and program goals. Distinguish between outcomes that occur over the short-, intermediate, and long-term. This is referred to as the “chain of outcomes.” Short-term Outcomes: What change do you expect to occur either immediately or in the near future? Short-term outcomes are those that are the most direct result of a program’s activities and outputs. They are generally achievable in one year. They are typically not ends in themselves, but are necessary steps toward desired ends (intermediate or long-term outcomes or goals). Intermediate Outcomes: What change do you want to occur after that? Intermediate outcomes are those outcomes that link a program’s short-term outcomes to long-term outcomes. Long-term Outcome: What change do you hope will occur over time? Long-term outcomes are those that result from the achievement of your short- and intermediate-term outcomes, and often take a longer time to achieve. They are also generally outcomes over which your program has a less direct influence. Long-term outcomes may occur beyond the timeframe you identified for your logic model and may match your goal.
Here in the outcome chain for the recovery ministry, we see the activity—providing substance abuse recovery services—and short-term outcomes: increase knowledge about addiction, intermediate outcomes: increase skills on how to identify addiction triggers and improve ability to make healthy decisions about addiction. The long-range outcome would be for the individuals to maintain uninterrupted sobriety.Another Tip:Outcome ScopeAs you develop your outcomes be sure to clarify their scope by creating realistic boundaries. Do not identify outcomes beyond your program’s reach. Some possible characteristics to use in narrowing an outcome’s scope include: Geography (Arad County; students attending XXX school) Ages or grades Condition (disability) Income level or financial circumstance (low-income; middle class with bad credit)Ethnicity or culture (predominantly Latino; recent immigrants)Other characteristics of the people to be served
Let me take a minute to emphasize again the difference between outputs and outcomes.Outputs are the direct and measurable products of your program’s activities and services. They are often expressed in volume or units delivered.Outcomes are the results or impact of the activities and services. Outcomes often represent the results of multiple outputs; each outcome usually corresponds to more than one output. For example, in the afterschool program outputs could be: # of children receiving tutoringOutcomes would be the increase in time spent reading, the improvement in reading skills, increase in the literacy rate, etc.
Before we move to the next group of elements of a logic model, I’d like to discuss the concept of the Theory of Change.Every social program is based on a theory of change—which is a set of ideas that describes how and why the program will work. The theory connects what is happening in the program (the program’s activities) with the program goal – it expresses the relationship between actions and results. A theory of change may be based on: Wisdom and experience: Your work in the field leads you to believe that this set of actions will lead to your intended results. Research and evaluation: Formal research indicates that this set of strategies has been successful in achieving your intended results.Best practices: Well-regarded and successful programs in the field use these strategies to achieve the results you are seeking.Through the experience of the RO ministry and some best practices of programs for special needs children in the US, they have seen that certain disabled children taken from state institutions and placed in recuperative homes and in a special education have resulted in preparing the children to be successfully adopted into Christian families. TAKE SOME TIME TO WRITE IN IDEAS OR THOUGHTS ON SOME OF YOUR PROGRAM’S OUTCOMES
The next group of elements for the logic model include: rationales, assumptions, and external factors
A program’s rationales are the beliefs about how change occurs in your field and with your specific clients (or audience), based on research, experience, or best practices.
Some examples of rationales for our 3 programs include:Research-based rationales in the first two examplesExperience-based rationale in the third (RO)Double Jeopardy: How Third-Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation2011-04-14Educators and researchers have long recognized the importance of mastering reading by the end of third grade. Students who fail to reach this critical milestone often falter in the later grades and drop out before earning a high school diploma. Now, researchers have confirmed this link in the first national study to calculate high school graduation rates for children at different reading skill levels and with different poverty rates. Results of a longitudinal study of nearly 4,000 students find that those who don’t read proficiently by third grade are four times more likely to leave school without a diploma than proficient readers. For the worst readers, those couldn’t master even the basic skills by third grade, the rate is nearly six times greater. TAKE A FEW MINUTES TO FILL IN YOUR LOGIC MODEL WORKSHEETWhile these struggling readers account for about a third of the students, they represent more than three fifths of those who eventually drop out or fail to graduate on time. What’s more, the study shows that poverty has a powerful influence on graduation rates. The combined effect of reading poorly and living in poverty puts these children in double jeopardy.
The assumptions that underlie a program’s theory are conditions that are necessary to program success, and you believe are true. Your program needs these conditions in order to success, but you believe these conditions already exist – they are not something you need to bring about with your program activities. These assumptions can refer to facts or special circumstances in your community, region, and/or field.
Examples of program assumptions from our three programs are:
any factors over which you have little or no control may affect your program’s outcomes. These external factors – such as the political and economic situation, social influences, and even weather—can help or hinder a program’s success. Changes in any of these contextual factors may require program adjustments. Include some of the external factors impacting your program in your logic model—at the bottom. Here are some categories that you may want to consider in developing your logic model:Political/governmental environment--Is the current political environment/governmental leadership supportive of your program strategies? Is there a risk of losing that support if particular policies or funding sources change? Example: RO adoption Economic situation--Will this economy support your program goals and outcomes? Are there economic barriers to achieving your outcomes? Social/cultural context--Are you working in a community/school/church that welcomes your program? Is community support for your program a critical component? If so, are there political or economic characteristics that will influence the community and affect your program? Geographic and other natural constraints--Is your work dependent on reliable public transportation to reach your constituency? Is transportation a critical challenge to achieving program outcomes? Is bad weather likely to interfere with service delivery?TAKE A FEW MINUTES TO FILL IN SOME IDEAS ON YOUR LOGIC MODEL WORKSHEETWRITE DOWN SOME IDEAS ON EXTERNAL FACTORS THAT COULD IMPACT YOUR PROGRAM’S SUCCESS
Congratulations on staying with this all-day session. Over the course of this day, you have developed ideas, thoughts, some of you have come close to filling out a complete draft of a logic model for your program. But really, this is a starting point—you need to take what you’ve done and what you’ve learned back home—for a reality check as well as for input and buy-in from others in your organization.So as we wind down this day, we’d like for you to take a few minutes to think about your next steps, an action plan for developing and completing a logic model for your organization. To do that, we’ve developed a list of questions to help you get started when you get back home.GO OVER QUESTIONS ON HANDOUTASK GROUP FOR INPUT ON WHAT TO DO WHEN THEY GET HOME TO CONTINUE THIS PROCESSASK FOR OTHER QUESTIONS ON LOGIC MODEL PROCESS
What's Your Outcome?
What’s your Outcome?<br />James C. Galvin, Ed.D.<br />Galvin & Associates, Inc.<br />Lisa B. Lampman<br />Lampman Consulting LLC<br />Dallas TX<br />April 26, 2011<br />
Nonprofits are getting more and more pressure to report outcome measures<br />
The Christian Leadership Alliance believes this is a long-range trend<br />
If you focus on the right outcomes your ministry will be more effective<br />
Your role is to develop a plan to help your organization sharpen outcomes<br />
Your current outcomes and measures are unclear or nonexistent<br />
You want clear outcomes and measures for every ministry program<br />
Use the Logic Model as a tool for sharpening ministry outcomes<br />
What community problem does my program solve?<br />
Problem: Recovery Ministry <br />In Washington, DC, 40% of homeless individuals are addicted to drugs and alcohol and are unable to sustain sobriety, employment, and housing.<br />
Problem: Urban Youth Ministry<br />A growing number of urban youth in Knoxville lack support and resources and are at-risk academically, socially, and spiritually.<br />
Problem: Romanian Ministry<br />Significant numbers of disabled children in Romania are abandoned to state institutions. <br />
Goal: What is my program trying to accomplish?<br />
Goal: Recovery Ministry<br />Assist homeless men and women in DC in their efforts to rebuild their lives by maintaining uninterrupted sobriety, maintaining employment, and living in their own homes.<br />
Goal: Urban Youth Ministry<br />Equip urban youth in Knoxville to love Jesus Christ and become effective community leaders. <br />
Goal: Urban Youth Ministry Afterschool Program<br />Increase reading proficiency among elementary-age children through a church-based tutoring program.<br />
Goal: Romanian Ministry<br />Place disabled orphans from Arad County in Christian Romanian families and provide ongoing support.<br />
Are your outcomes…?<br /> focused on your “core business”<br /> realistic, achievable, measureable<br /> written as change statements<br /> within your ability to influence change<br /> in logical sequence<br />
Outcome Chain<br />Closer in time More distant in time<br />Easier to measure Harder to measure<br />More attributable Less attributable<br />
Outcome Chain: Recovery Ministry<br />Provides substance abuse recovery services to homeless in DC <br />To increase knowledge about addiction <br />To increase skills on how to identify addiction ‘triggers’<br />To improve ability to make healthy decisions about addiction<br />To maintain uninterrupted sobriety day by day<br />
Outcome Chain: Urban Youth Afterschool Program <br />Provides church-based tutoring to urban youth<br />To increase time spent reading<br />To improve literacy skills<br />To increase reading proficiency among elementary-age children<br />
Outcome Chain: Romanian Ministry<br />Provides recuperative homes and school for disabled RO orphans and support services to families<br />To improve children’s care<br />To improve children’s ability to develop and learn<br />To increase relational and life skills <br />To be placed in Christian RO families <br />
A program’s rationales are beliefs based on knowledge about how change occurs<br />
Rationales<br />Current research indicates that providing a stable living situation can help homeless individuals maintain sobriety.<br />Graduation rates from high school have been linked to proficiency in reading on grade level by the 3rd grade according to recent research.<br />The likelihood of RO Christian families being willing to adopt disabled children is increased when long-term support services are available.<br />
Assumptions are existing conditions necessary for success<br />
Assumptions<br />There is adequate and nearby housing available for all program participants.<br />There are church volunteers in urban neighborhoods willing to tutor elementary-aged youth in reading.<br />RO Child Protection will continue to allow and support adoption of orphans with disabilities by Christian RO families.<br />
External factors involve conditionsthat impact program success <br />
The Logic Model can help you identify outcomes and achieve them<br />