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5th world harvardclub_dec5

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5th world harvardclub_dec5

  1. 1. • We’re publishing less scientific articles relative to the rest of the world. • Our share of global patenting is shrinking. • Our share of global R&D is shrinking. • We have become net importers of high tech products.
  2. 2. Shift 1 Sea Change
  3. 3. Efficiency of U.S. Educational System in Producing Technical Talent is Poor: Higher Ed • U.S. ranks 80th out of 92 countries in the fraction of its college students who obtain bachelors degrees in the natural sciences and engineering. • U.S. also ranks 80th out of 92 countries in the fraction of its college students who obtain bachelors degrees in engineering. “We educate many more people than other nations, but only a small fraction of those choose to major in science and engineering.” Data from which these calculations were made: National Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Two volumes.Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1, NSB 04-1; volume 2, NSB 04-1A). Appendix Table 2-33. In Mayo 2005, National Academies.
  4. 4. Tipping Point Shanghai Jiao Tong University 2005 ACM International Collegiate Programming Contest World Championship April 9-13, 2006 – San Antonio, Texas
  5. 5. Other nations outpace U.S. in engineering graduates. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 China India European Union Japan Russia U.S. SKorea Taiwan # of 1st degree in Engineering / Science Source: National Science Board, “Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004”; Table 2-33. Russia, India and S Korea data from University of Texas NCR Report 2004
  6. 6. Other nations outpace U.S. in engineering graduates. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 China India European Union Japan Russia U.S. SKorea Taiwan # of 1st degree in Engineering / Science Source: National Science Board, “Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004”; Table 2-33. Russia, India and S Korea data from University of Texas NCR Report 2004 3 X Each
  7. 7. Tipping Point In China (3.7MM), 42% of students earn science/engineering Degrees compared to 5% in US (380K). Source: Gunderson, 2005 April 9-13, 2006 – San Antonio, Texas
  8. 8. Shift 2 Double Whammy
  9. 9. Boomers Generation X Generation Y 46-64 65-79 80-Present U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic Trends in the 20th Century , Census 2000 Special Reports, CENSR-4, Table 5, November 2002. 1946 20501900 1964 1980 Births STEM Workers? Boomers, Low SES, Minority & Women. U.S. Census Bureau, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,“ released November 18, 2004. Slower growth!
  10. 10. 2008, US will graduate 198,000 Science and Engineering Students to replace 2MM Retiring Boomers (Gunderson, Texas Workforce Conference, 2005) 2015, 43% of the current workforce will retire (In Barlow, Jamrog, Human Resources Institute, University of Tampa in Navarro) 2030, 30MM Skilled Worker Shortage (Gunderson, Texas Workforce Conference, 2005)
  11. 11. Shift 3 The Equalizer
  12. 12. Census Bureau Projections to 2100 U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 (inthousands) White Black American Indian Asian and Pacific Islander Hispanic SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population Projections, http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html In John Sargent Senior Policy Analyst U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau Projects Tripling of Hispanic & Asian Populations by 2050. Non- Hispanic Whites may Drop To Half of Total Population (US Census, 2004). More diversity…
  13. 13. Texas Projects 20% Population Growth (2000-2015) (Source: Regional Plan for Texas Higher Education, 2002) As of 2003 Whites No Longer The Majority In Texas (US Census Bureau, 2004) Faster growth and more diversity – now! Followed by UT, OK and OR.
  14. 14. Shift 4 Human Capital
  15. 15. Efficiency of U.S. Educational System in Producing Technical Talent is Poor: K-12 • International (TIMSS) test scores show U.S. 4th graders to be 12th in the world in math; 6th in the world in science • International (TIMSS) test scores show U.S. 8th graders to be 14th in the world in math; 9th in the world in science • International (PISA) test scores show U.S. 12th graders to be 24th in the world in math; 22nd in the world in science “The longer we stay in the educational system, the worse off we are with respect to our peers…” Data from National Center for Education Statistics . In Mayo 2005, National Academies. (http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pisa/PISA2003Highlights.asp and http://nces.ed.gov/timss/Results03.asp)
  16. 16. Percentage of the population scoring at IALS literacy level 3 or higher on the document scale, 1994-95 53 56 62 66666767 7677 80 45 35 50 4547 49 58 52 4546 52 73 51 17 34 52 0 90 Sweden Netherlands Belgium Canada Switzerland (g) Switzerland (Fr) Germany Australia United Kingdom New Zealand Ireland United States Poland % 16-25 yrs of age 46-55 yrs of age Source: Centre for Educational Research and Innovation, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance OECD Indicators 1998 U.S. Older Adults Have Stronger Skills Than Young AdultsU.S. Older Adults Have Stronger Skills Than Young Adults
  17. 17. Of Every 100 Kindergartners:(24 Year-Olds) Source: US Bureau of Census, Current Population Reports, Educational Attainment in the United States; March 2000, Detailed Tables No. 2 in Latino Health Care Project, 2004. White Asian Hispanic Black NAI 91 94 62 87 58 62 80 29 54 - 30 49 6 16 7 White Asian Hispanic Black NAI 3 to 1 2 to 1 10 to 1 5 to 1 8 to 1
  18. 18. S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by Race Bachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines As a Percent of All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That Group By Race, 2000 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Engineering Physical Science Mathematics Computer Science Biological Science White, non-Hispanics Asians/Pacific Islanders Black, non-Hispanics Hispanics American Indians or Alaskan Natives In John Sargent Senior Policy Analyst U.S. Department of Commerce
  19. 19. College Graduates by Age 24 Young People From High Income Families 48% Young People From Low Income Families 7% Source: Tom Mortenson, Research Seminar on Public Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Post Secondary, 1997 in Latino Health Care Project, Report at Casey Journalism School for Children and Families
  20. 20. Shift 5 Historical
  21. 21. Kurzweil’s Exponential Pace of Innovation Keystone Events The pace of technological change “advances (at least) exponentially”. –Ray Kurzweil
  22. 22. Ray Kurzweil An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. “So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).”
  23. 23. http://www.arraycomm.com/pcct/coopers_law.htm Moore’s Law - Shrink volume by 1011 increase Power by 1011 Martin Cooper’s Law - the no. of conversations (voice and data) conducted over a given area, in all of the useful radio spectrum has doubled every 21/2 years for the last 105 years since Marconi, 1895. Cooper’s Law 1st Gen  Mainframe 2nd Gen Mini 3rd Gen PC 4th Gen Sys on Chip
  24. 24. http://www-bsac.eecs.berkeley.edu/archive/users/warneke-brett/SmartDust/ Berkeley’s Golem Dust 11.7 mm3 total circumscribed volume ~4.8 mm3 total displaced volume Berkeley’s Deputy Dust 6.6 mm3 total circumscribed volume 4th Gen 11.7 mm3 6.6 mm3
  25. 25. My daughter’s first computer at age 1 hour.
  26. 26. Integrates sensors, batteries, a control chip, and an RF transmitter in a 35mm-long housing. University of Glasgow’s Lab-in-a-Pill http://www.olympus.co.jp/en/news/2004b/nr041130capsle.cfm
  27. 27. Shift 6 Millennial
  28. 28. Adapted from Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO What is fueling this progress?
  29. 29. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO S&T Convergence
  30. 30. MIT Tech Review, 2005 Sensors Physical Chemical Biological http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/03102801.pdf , page 16 Actuators Physical Chemical Biological
  31. 31. “Robots at same stage as 1978 PCs.” --Baylor University, Carbonara and Korpi Machine Actors v v
  32. 32. MIT Tech Review, 2005 This is a ROBOT http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/03102801.pdf , page 16
  33. 33. Richard E. Smalley, Robert Curl and Harold Kroto won 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the discovery of a structure of carbon atoms known as a “buckyball”. http://www.bnl.gov/bnlweb/pubaf/pr/PR_display.asp?prID=04-85
  34. 34. http://www.bnl.gov/bnlweb/pubaf/pr/PR_display.asp?prID=04-85 Pins can be added to a buckball to form an X, Y, Z coordinate system to DNA—a symmetry between fullerenes and DNA.
  35. 35. NanoBionics: Technical applications of biological molecules including protein-based materials, DNA-based materials, biomineralization, cellular systems and bioelectronics. http://www.nanobionics3.de/
  36. 36. Shift 7 Pedagogy
  37. 37. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO What is the impact of S&T Convergence to education?
  38. 38. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures Chemistry Engineering BiologyPhysics Educational Convergence MST&G
  39. 39. Transdisciplinarity
  40. 40. Transdisciplinarity • Creating new knowledge, processes and systems. • Structurally converging knowledge, processes and systems. • Integrating learning, working and problem solving. • Engaging real world needs and problems.
  41. 41. Source: Brazell, IC2 Institute, 2004 Yang Cai, Ingo Snel, Betty Chenga, Suman Bharathi, Clementine Klein d, Judith Klein- Seetharaman; Carnegie Mellon University, University of Frankfurt, Research Institute, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. www.andrew.cmu.edu/~ycai/biogame.pdf BIOSIM 1.0
  42. 42. Shift 8 Learning
  43. 43. Creation of new knowledge, processes & systems. Game Building is Transdisciplinary
  44. 44. Millennials Not Low Socio-Economic Status
  45. 45. Female, 4, 8% Male, 46, 92% Average Age Respondent 15 Avg. Age Start Playing Games 5 Avg. Hours of Play Per Week 24 % Mod’ers 34% Average Hours Mod'ing Per Wk. 5 Average Age Start Mod'ing 12 50 Game Camp Respondents to Date
  46. 46. Science MOD MOD’ing MOD’er Art SKIN SKIN’ing SKIN’er
  47. 47. Why do you modify games? 9 8 14 3 9 8 8 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Playing Yes Playing No Learning Yes Learning No Show Yes Show No Better Yes Better No
  48. 48. Math Engineering TechScience Game Builder ?
  49. 49. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures Math Engineering TechScience Game Builder ART/ Design
  50. 50. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures Math Engineering TechScience Game Builder TEAMS
  51. 51. 22 48 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Graduate HS Graduate CC or TC Graduate University Plans for education Computer Science 20 Video Game Design 9 Design/Art 8 Write in to survey
  52. 52. Shift 9 Game
  53. 53. Games for… Games for Health Serious Games Games for Change Learning Games
  54. 54. ADMS (ITSEC 2005)
  55. 55. Improved Target Acquisition System Trainer First Person & Fidelity
  56. 56. USC ISI and Tactical Language Training (ITSEC 2005)
  57. 57. NETC – 24 Blue (ITSEC 2005)
  58. 58. Player is Incident Commander or subordinate crisis responder. Responds to events with choices that should mirror Department of Justice NICS doctrine. • Tactical Map set in player’s home county • ICS “hints” throughout gameplay • Coordination and communication required for success • Full-scale training is unaffordable for small jurisdictions* • Permits widespread distribution to many users* *88% of all jurisdictions are considered to be small. Incident Commander Recommendation: Emphasize human-to- human computer mediated communication, interaction and learning.
  59. 59. Virtual U models the attitudes and behaviors of the academic community in five major areas of higher education anagement: • Spending and income decisions such as operating budget, new hires, incoming donations, and management of the endowment; • Faculty, course, and student scheduling issues; • Admissions standards, university prestige, and student enrollment; • Student housing, classrooms, and all other facilities; and • Performance indicators. Enlight Software, the Jackson Hole Higher Education Group, and the Institute for Research on Higher Education at the University of Pennsylvania (data), with support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Spencer Foundation. www.virtual-u.org
  60. 60. food-force.com Produced by the United Nations' World Food Programme, Kids join a team of emergency aid workers to save the fictitious island of Sheylan from starvation caused by drought and civil war. The team goes on six missions to help save the island. The additional missions cleverly use games to demonstrate how emergency aid teams acquire food, make food packs, deliver food and establish long-term food supplies.
  61. 61. GlucoboyThe video game that runs on blood.
  62. 62. Shift 10 Human Factors
  63. 63. Overlays Control http://www.pong-story.com/odyssey.htm#P1 1972 http://www.pong-story.com/odyssey.htm “Ready or not, computers are coming to the people.” --Stewart Brand, Rolling Stone December, 1972
  64. 64. New HCI
  65. 65. Senses geo location for game interaction. New HCI & HSI
  66. 66. It appears to the viewer as a full-color image with the resolution of a giant desktop display… contrast ratio of 5,000 compared with 500 for a typical laptop LCD. Microvision
  67. 67. Vienna University of Technology Players operate track switches and adjusting the speed of virtual trains to prevent virtual trains from colliding. Researchers Daniel Wagner, Thomas Pintaric and
  68. 68. Vienna University of Technology Players operate track switches and adjusting the speed of virtual trains to prevent virtual trains from colliding. Researchers Daniel Wagner, Thomas Pintaric and Dieter Schmalstieg
  69. 69. Through mixing realities, research is expanding the potential of embedded training in the field and in battle labs to provide integrated training anytime, anywhere. Advancements are being transferred across industries from business prototypes to hospitality training. Integrated research in tracking, registration, rendering, display, and scenario delivery are expanding the possibilities of CONSTRUCTIVE simulation as well as after action review, and command and control visualizations.
  70. 70. First Person & Fidelity
  71. 71. Shift 11 Economic Development
  72. 72. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO S&T Convergence
  73. 73. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO Convergence Technopolei S. Korea Finland Japan DC MSA Central Florida San Diego County
  74. 74. transitioning from a manufacturing to an innovation economy http://mit.edu/cre/research/ncc/proceedings/ncc-casestudies.pdf
  75. 75. Today, Finland’s progressive strategy includes: multi-disciplinary and multi-industry collaboration to integrate nano science-, bio science-, information science- and cognitive science-based research and development (Tieke, 2005, p.9); converging design, art and science in the contexts of education and human development (Tahkokallio and Koivusilta, 2004, p.1); national R&D policy and urban-rural development establishing connected regional centers of innovation; partnering with global high tech markets and industries (Embassy of Switzerland, Beijing, 2005, p.12); and leading the world in “Public-Private Partnership” (with efforts dating back to the year of their independence, 1917) (Tieke, 2005, p.12-15).
  76. 76. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO What differentiates convergence technopolei? ?
  77. 77. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures Culture Human Development STEMArt Convergence Technopolei Fusion
  78. 78. Shift 12 Jobs
  79. 79. Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO Global Jobs Pull Council on Competitiveness: National Innovation Initiative Samuel Palmisano (CEO, IBM): The future breakthroughs are going to be in interdisciplinary cooperation -- combinations of biology, chemistry, and computational science. Roughly 100 million jobs are going to be created in a lot of these cross-disciplinary fields: bioinformatics, hydrogen fuel cells, broadband infrastructure, on and on. --Business Week: 10.11.2004
  80. 80. $35K - $45K $25K$40K - $50K $45K - $65K
  81. 81. Navy “Job Mergers”
  82. 82. Shift 13 Text Book
  83. 83. Millennials Low Socio-Economic Status Goldberg’s Crew, Houston Community College
  84. 84. Millennials Not Low Socio-Economic Status Ninja’s Crew, Houston Community College
  85. 85. The toys we play with as children!
  86. 86. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 High school or less Community college/technical College degree or beyond How Much Education do You Want? White African American Latino Other How much education? A. Gold, IC2 Institute, UT Austin, Forthcoming
  87. 87. 22 48 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Graduate HS Graduate CC or TC Graduate University Plans for education Computer Science 20 Video Game Design 9 Design/Art 8 Write in to survey
  88. 88. First Flight 3 of 6 Dave Kenny
  89. 89. Shift 14 Pipeline
  90. 90. ITSA Greg White, UTSA: ”K-PhD” GST ACCD
  91. 91. ITSA Greg White, UTSA: ”K-PhD” PipelineStartyounger! TEAMS Northwest Vista College, San Antonio
  92. 92. Population: 1.4MM Growth: 1200/day Educational Sites 3 - 5 minutes EA online games 9 minutes AOL Entertainment 10 minutes Whyville.net 59 minutes Yahoo! Games 78 minutes MEAN TIME PER USER LOGIN Discovery.com: 96 million Whyville.net: 58.4 million BigChalk: 11 million Time for Kids: 8 million New York Times Learning Net: 1.2 million Cosmogirl: 425,000 PAGE VIEWS ©numedeon,inc.2003 The average time per log in July was 3.8 hours making it second to Neopets.
  93. 93. Brigadier General Robert F. McDermott RETIRED "when the economic history of San Antonio in the 1980s is written, the most influential individual will be McDermott" --Mayor Henry Cisneros Founder Air Force Academy 1. Accelerated Credit 2. Transfer Credit 3. Broaden Education 4. Automation
  94. 94. Shift 15 Brand
  95. 95. Alamo & Frontier Legends
  96. 96. Missions San Jose San Juan Espada Concepci on
  97. 97. Connect S&T and Tourism Awareness inside of 1604 and outside Connect military history to our birth as a S&T hub starting in 1910 Set the stage for San Antonio MSA 2110 Benjamin D. Foulois 1910
  98. 98. Lt. Colonel Edward White Pilot for Gemini 4, which was a 66- revolution, 4-day mission June 3 - 7, 1965. 1965
  99. 99. CACI Northrop Grumman Lockheed Martin General Electric Pratt & Whitney Chromalloy Proxtronics Veridian Mitre OnBoard Soft Secure INFO dNovus Frontline Systems Karta Secure LOGIX Titan Adtech Digital Defense Denim Group
  100. 100. 2010
  101. 101. Let’s have a party! 2010
  102. 102. Shift 15 Culture
  103. 103. Science
  104. 104. Science Art
  105. 105. Art Culture Science
  106. 106. 2110
  107. 107. 3110
  108. 108. Shift 16 Mission
  109. 109. GAME TEAMS Games have captured millennials imagination and time. Leverage the attention economy of games to develop next generation workforce. We need to pierce the veil of play and support game-based constructivist learning. Transdisciplinarity is the common denominator. Games NANO BIO INFO NEURO Game Builder = System Builder Educational Pull
  110. 110. Brigadier General Robert F. McDermott RETIRED Acceleration of Credit Transfer of Credit Broader Education Automation General Bernard A. Schriever RETIRED Dr. Francis Kane Space Academy
  111. 111. Mars And beyond
  112. 112. The End jim@ventureRAMP.com

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