Jerusalem
JIIS




       40 years of reunification
             1967 - 2007
• Geography
• Population
• Geopolitics




  ...
JIIS
               The Jerusalem Institute
                  for Israel Studies
• Established 1978
  Non - profit academi...
JIIS
            Jerusalem Institute
          for Israel Studies (JIIS)
• Established by the Jerusalem Foundation and the...
JIIS
       Jerusalem Institute
        for Israel Studies
JIIS   Jerusalem – A Core Issue
                                         2002

• National, Religious,
  Cultural and
  Eco...
JIIS
           Jerusalem is Israel's
               largest city:                                Haifa



• Jurisdiction ...
JIIS



  Regional context
• Tel-Aviv – Jerusalem –
  Amman
• Nablus – Jerusalem –
  Hebron
JIIS
              Location

       Tel-Aviv - Jerusalem - Amman
JIIS



Topography
• Natural
  Borders
• Watershed
• Between
  the desert
  in the
  east & the
  green land
  in the west
JIIS


         Growth
       of the Built-
        up Area
• Modern
 Jerusalem
 is only 150
 years old



       Source: ...
JIIS




       Changing The Municipal
              Borders

              1967 - 2007
JIIS   Corpus Seperatum, 1947


                          Current
                          Municipal
                    ...
JIIS
       The Municipal Jurisdiction
          Before June - 1967

• Israeli controlled
  west Jerusalem:
  38 km2
• Jor...
JIIS

       Following the Six - Days War of 1967
• The city's jurisdiction was
  enlarged by some 70 km2
  on 28 June 196...
JIIS


       In the beginning of the 1990s

• Westwards
  extension (1993)
  by 15 km2, to 126
  km2
• Never built; The
 ...
The development
       of the built up area since 1967
JIIS




• Growing from a small Town to large Metropolis
• Efforts ...
The Gilo
  Neighborhood

One out of ten new
 neighborhoods
   build by the
  government in
 Jerusalem after
     1967
Ramot Alon
neighborhood
Changes in the
functional structure
of Jerusalem
1967 - 2008
JIIS




               POPULATION

       Israel policy of maintaining the
         Jewish - Arab demographic
           ...
JIIS
                     Population Size
                 in the city proper - 2006
• Total – 733,000
   (10% of Israel's...
JIIS
             Population Growth
       in Jerusalem 1967-2007 (000)
                                Growth
   Year    ...
JIIS
                      Age by Area
       % of elderly        % of children
       (65+)               (0-14)
Age Structure
JIIS




                  Tel Aviv                                    Jerusalem
‫גיל‬
                     ...
JIIS
            Average Annual Growth
       5%
                   4.2%                               Jews          Arabs...
JIIS                          Natural Increase
       Major source of population growth in Jerusalem
• 1967: the Jewish po...
JIIS
             Internal migration
• Since 1967 more than 422,000 Jews
  have left the city. 50% remained in the
  great...
JIIS
         Population projection
            (in thousands)

       Year      2007      2020

       Jews    481 66%   ...
JIIS
                               Population projections


                                           2007     2020   20...
JIIS


 Geographic Distribution of the
 Population                                 2002




 • Highly diversified
   popul...
JIIS
              The Metropolitan Area
• Total population
  (inc. Jer.):
  approx. 1.6 m.
  - 52% Arabs
  - 48% Jews

• ...
JIIS


       The Main Economic Problems
• Poor city – large families (Arabs & Orthodox Jews)
•   Not enough participation...
JIIS
          Employed Persons
       by Economic Branch-2006

                              Tel-
                  Jerus...
JIIS
                             Poverty - 2005
       Participation in the Labor Force (%)        Families Below the quo...
JIIS                      Income per capita - 2004


                                                                    B...
JIIS

          Poverty rate*– The poorest large city in Israel
                            (2003)

50%

40%

30%

20%    ...
JIIS
                 Jerusalem Image - 2007 (2006)

• A center for the Jewish people 84% (94%)
• City with many cultural ...
JIIS




       What should be done?
Making the most of the relative
JIIS
                 advantages of Jerusalem
                    Not to compete with
    ...
JIIS




       A strategic socio-economic master plan is
                  essential for the city


       Leadership wit...
JIIS
       The major policies should be:
       1. Strengthening the city's economy.
       2. Taking all necessary measu...
JIIS                                                   Priorities
• Creating new jobs & employment opportunities
• Enhanci...
JIIS
                    Proposals
   • Investments in employment projects
       – High-tech industries
       – Higher e...
JIIS
        Economic Opportunities

• Capital city
• Tourism Industry
• High Education center
• High-tech industries, bio...
JIIS

       Changes in The Metropolitan Area
        From dead end to central location
• Since 1967 Jerusalem has resumed...
JIIS     Changes in The Metropolitan Area
         From dead end to central location
• Total population
  (including. Jer....
JIIS
       Geopolitical Issues
• Old city & the Historic Basin
• Boroughs system as an interim stage
  solution
• Separat...
JIIS    The Historic Basin & the Old City:
       Suggested Principles for Negotiations
• Separating the problems of the O...
JIIS
                       The Historic Basin
       95% of the holy places in Jerusalem are within the historic basin

 ...
JIIS



       Historic Basin – Land Ownership
          Land
        Ownership         14

                              ...
JIIS


  The Old City – The Core of the Conflict
Religious
Institutions        Land
                    Ownership
JIIS



Municipal Boroughs

Functional Autonomy

De-centralization of
authority to municipal
boroughs

Possible division i...
Separation from
Arab
Neighborhoods
New Administrative Structure
JIIS
                    for the Jerusalem Metropolitan Area
                                ...
Alternative A
                  Under Israel sovereignty: 30 % Palestinians
           JIIS
Alternative B
                  Under Israel sovereignty: 16 % Palestinians
           JIIS
Alternative C
                 Under Israel sovereignty: 12 % Palestinians
          JIIS
JIIS




       The security fence in the
           Jerusalem area

           a major change
JIIS
              Terror attacks - data
       • 30% of the terror attacks on Israel
         between 2000 - 2003 took pl...
JIIS
                   Terror casualties

                    Israel
                             Jerusalem Tel Aviv   Ha...
JIIS
                   The Purpose
       • The sole purpose of the security fence
         is to provide security for th...
JIIS


            According to IDF experts
       The security fence will improve the ability
        of the IDF to preve...
Route & structure
JIIS




       • Total planned fence - 763 Km
         (477 miles)
       • Already built - 350 Km (218...
JIIS
             Multi-layered Obstacle
                    Structure:
       • Barbed wire (six coils)
       • Ditch (5...
JIIS
            Typical section of the fence




 Source: Ministry of Defence
JIIS


       The Security
         Fence




                          Jewish population

                      Palestini...
JIIS   The Route, Crossing Points
                              Currently
                              Executed Route



...
JIIS
           Basic facts and problems
       • The fence in Jerusalem is the most
         dramatic change in the city ...
• It cuts through a living urban fabric of neighborhoods
JIIS


    & suburbs
  • It encompasses Christian holy places and...
JIIS
               Impact on the city:


       •   Demography
       •   Economy
       •   Public services
       •   T...
JIIS   Demographic & Social Impact
• Migration of thousands of Palestinians into
  Jerusalem will change the demographic b...
JIIS
            Economic Impact
 • Changes in real estate prices:
   in Jerusalem -increase, outside – decrease
 • Discon...
JIIS




                                                1,000
                                                        1,5...
JIIS
        Impact on public services
   • Difficulties for Jerusalemites outside the
     fence who will continue to use...
JIIS
           Metropolitan Issues
 • Since 1967 Jerusalem has resumed its
   metropolitan status

 • During the last 38
...
JIIS
          Metropolitan Issues (cont.)
       • The fence will disconnect the city from its
         Metropolitan area...
JIIS
             Open Questions
• What will be the status of the fence in resumed
  negotiations? Is it a non-starter fro...
JIIS

       • What will be the influence of the fence
         on the Palestinian residents’ collective
         identity...
JIIS
       Demographic Alternative
                   Population balance
                   in Jerusalem




            ...
JIIS
       Life Pattern Alternative
JIIS   Metropolitan Alternative
               quot;Jerusalem DCquot;
JIIS
JIIS




Thank you

Israel Kimhi
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Jerusalem: 40 years of reunification

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  • Identities: capital or living city, diverse-cosmopolitan or fundamentalConflicts: religious, national, planning, socialFears: strong population leaving, haredization, poor city, arab identity
  • Still a potential crossing point on the road to amman
  • November 29th 1947
  • Key point: many of Jerusalem's Palestinian neighborhoods today were not part of the city until 1967. among these: sur baher, beit hanina.
  • The most far-reaching and dramatic change
  • Conflicts today weather to build the added areas
  • Demography: a factor which, to an extent, determines the city’s imagePolitical influence of each population groupTerritorial consumption in the urban spaceEach group's way of life within the cityConsumption of services and the character of the services provided, especially in education, culture, religion, and welfareEconomic status of each group (family structure and size, rate of participation in the workforce)
  • Jerusalem: 40 years of reunification

    1. 1. Jerusalem JIIS 40 years of reunification 1967 - 2007 • Geography • Population • Geopolitics Israel Kimhi
    2. 2. JIIS The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies • Established 1978 Non - profit academic NGO • Main study clusters: – Jerusalem – Israeli – Palestinian conflict – alternative & solutions – Environmental policy – Social-Economic policy – Applied demographic research – Heritage conservation – Urban environment – Metropolitan policy issues
    3. 3. JIIS Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies (JIIS) • Established by the Jerusalem Foundation and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, it provides a constant flow of relevant, and accurate data, in - depth background material, policy papers and professional analysis on Jerusalem for use by decision makers and the general public on subjects of great importance. • These studies are accompanied by applicable suggestions for options and solutions, brought forward by leading academics and practitioners.
    4. 4. JIIS Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
    5. 5. JIIS Jerusalem – A Core Issue 2002 • National, Religious, Cultural and Economic conflicts JIIS’ role: • Background to policy makers • Clarification of main issues • Presentation of alternatives Har Homa
    6. 6. JIIS Jerusalem is Israel's largest city: Haifa • Jurisdiction Area - 126 km2 Tel-Aviv - Yafo – The area of the second largest city, Jerusalem Tel Aviv–Yafo, is 51 km2 • Mosaic of population groups: Beer Sheva - Jews, Arabs and Christians • The largest Arab minority living together with Jews in one city
    7. 7. JIIS Regional context • Tel-Aviv – Jerusalem – Amman • Nablus – Jerusalem – Hebron
    8. 8. JIIS Location Tel-Aviv - Jerusalem - Amman
    9. 9. JIIS Topography • Natural Borders • Watershed • Between the desert in the east & the green land in the west
    10. 10. JIIS Growth of the Built- up Area • Modern Jerusalem is only 150 years old Source: Martin Gilbert
    11. 11. JIIS Changing The Municipal Borders 1967 - 2007
    12. 12. JIIS Corpus Seperatum, 1947 Current Municipal Boundary
    13. 13. JIIS The Municipal Jurisdiction Before June - 1967 • Israeli controlled west Jerusalem: 38 km2 • Jordanian controlled east Jerusalem: 6 km2
    14. 14. JIIS Following the Six - Days War of 1967 • The city's jurisdiction was enlarged by some 70 km2 on 28 June 1967, in an accelerated legislative process. • With an area of 108 km2, the city encompassed west Jerusalem, east Jerusalem, the Old City, and extensive additional areas, mainly to the north and south, including 28 Arab villages or parts of the land of those villages.
    15. 15. JIIS In the beginning of the 1990s • Westwards extension (1993) by 15 km2, to 126 km2 • Never built; The Plan was rejected
    16. 16. The development of the built up area since 1967 JIIS • Growing from a small Town to large Metropolis • Efforts by the government to strengthen Jewish holdings in and 2006 around the city • Building new neighborhoods • Each side tries its best to put facts on the ground
    17. 17. The Gilo Neighborhood One out of ten new neighborhoods build by the government in Jerusalem after 1967
    18. 18. Ramot Alon neighborhood
    19. 19. Changes in the functional structure of Jerusalem 1967 - 2008
    20. 20. JIIS POPULATION Israel policy of maintaining the Jewish - Arab demographic balance - failed
    21. 21. JIIS Population Size in the city proper - 2006 • Total – 733,000 (10% of Israel's population) – thereof: 66% Jews (481,000) 34% Arabs (252,000) – Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews: approx. 30% of the Jewish population • 434,000 residents in East Jerusalem, 43% of them are Jews
    22. 22. JIIS Population Growth in Jerusalem 1967-2007 (000) Growth Year 1967 2007 (%) Jews 198 74% 487 65% 146 Arabs 69 26% 260 35% 277 Total 267 100% 747 100% 181
    23. 23. JIIS Age by Area % of elderly % of children (65+) (0-14)
    24. 24. Age Structure JIIS Tel Aviv Jerusalem ‫גיל‬ Age 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 Jews Arabs 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 ‫אחוז‬ 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 %
    25. 25. JIIS Average Annual Growth 5% 4.2% Jews Arabs 4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 2% 1.3% 1% 0% 1967-1977 1977-1987 1987-1997 1997-2005
    26. 26. JIIS Natural Increase Major source of population growth in Jerusalem • 1967: the Jewish population's rate of natural increase was far below that of the Arab population. • 1987: Jews and Arabs had about the same natural increase • since 1988: as a result of the Intifada (which had a baby boom effect), the birth rate among the Arab population increased. 40 Arabs 30 Birth rate 20 Jews 10 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
    27. 27. JIIS Internal migration • Since 1967 more than 422,000 Jews have left the city. 50% remained in the greater metropolitan area of Jerusalem. • The migration balance was -103,000. • Almost no migration out of the city from the Jerusalem Arab sector. 1967-2007 1967-2007 422,000 319,000
    28. 28. JIIS Population projection (in thousands) Year 2007 2020 Jews 481 66% 576 60% Arabs 252 34% 370 40% Total 733 100% 946 100%
    29. 29. JIIS Population projections 2007 2020 2035 Jews 65% 60% 50% Arabs 35% 40% 50% The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2006
    30. 30. JIIS Geographic Distribution of the Population 2002 • Highly diversified population; a mosaic of different neighborhoods • quot;Seam linesquot; between different ways of life – Jewish – Arab – Secular– Ultra - Orthodox • Impact on the city on a Har day-to-day level Homa
    31. 31. JIIS The Metropolitan Area • Total population (inc. Jer.): approx. 1.6 m. - 52% Arabs - 48% Jews • T.A. Metropolitan area 2.8 m. – 95% Jews – 5% Arabs
    32. 32. JIIS The Main Economic Problems • Poor city – large families (Arabs & Orthodox Jews) • Not enough participation in the labor force • Migration of Young & educated people • Migration of Middle class families • Unbalanced occupational structure • Not enough governmental aid to the city • Impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict • The security fence – losing the hinterland • Shortage of housing & jobs for young people
    33. 33. JIIS Employed Persons by Economic Branch-2006 Tel- Jerusalem Israel Aviv Public sector 48% 26% 32% Financial 13% 33% 17% services Industry 7% 8% 16%
    34. 34. JIIS Poverty - 2005 Participation in the Labor Force (%) Families Below the quot;Poverty Linequot; (%) 80 40 70 60 30 50 40 20 30 20 10 10 0 0 Jerusalem Tel-Aviv Haifa Jerusalem Tel-Aviv Haifa
    35. 35. JIIS Income per capita - 2004 Be’er- Jerusalem Tel Aviv Haifa sheva 1,962 4,458 3,485 3,101 The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2006
    36. 36. JIIS Poverty rate*– The poorest large city in Israel (2003) 50% 40% 30% 20% 42% 29% 10% 22% 12% 0% ‫ישראל‬ Israel ‫ירושלים‬ Jerusalem Jerusalem ‫ירושלים‬ ‫ - - יהודים‬Jews ‫תל-אביב‬ Tel Aviv * Persons under the poverty line The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2006
    37. 37. JIIS Jerusalem Image - 2007 (2006) • A center for the Jewish people 84% (94%) • City with many cultural activities (96%) (94%) • It is not dangerous to visit Jerusalem (88% of non Jerusalem population) (87%) • It is not true that life quality in Jerusalem is low (86%) (82%) • The most beautiful city in Israel (71%) (71%) • A city that is becoming more Ultra-Orthodox (62%) ( (64% The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007
    38. 38. JIIS What should be done?
    39. 39. Making the most of the relative JIIS advantages of Jerusalem Not to compete with Tel – Aviv as a financial center, but rather concentrate on Jerusalem’s merits: • Capital city • Center for the Jewish people • Culture center • Tourist center • Medical & scientific center • Research and higher education center • Religious center • Center for future peace industries
    40. 40. JIIS A strategic socio-economic master plan is essential for the city Leadership with a new vision is needed All the suggested cultural projects will be of no value if the city's economy, the social conditions, & the quality of life continue to deteriorate
    41. 41. JIIS The major policies should be: 1. Strengthening the city's economy. 2. Taking all necessary measures to stop the middle class families & the well - educated youngsters from leaving the city. 3. Restructuring the municipal administration. 4. Divide the city into boroughs. 5. Create a new metropolitan administration 6. Change the city border which is today completely anachronistic. 7. Stop neglecting the Arab sector.
    42. 42. JIIS Priorities • Creating new jobs & employment opportunities • Enhancing the quality of life • Rehabilitating the city center & the inner city • Renewing deteriorated neighborhoods and making them denser • Strengthening the city as a metropolitan center • Preserving the character & the historical heritage of the city • Enhancing the public services in East Jerusalem The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007
    43. 43. JIIS Proposals • Investments in employment projects – High-tech industries – Higher education – Tourism • Enhancement of public services – Education – Culture – Parks & open spaces • Strengthening Jerusalem's image & its ties with the Jewish world
    44. 44. JIIS Economic Opportunities • Capital city • Tourism Industry • High Education center • High-tech industries, bio-technology & research • Multimedia & Arts • Cultural city • Health center • Strengthening Jerusalem's image & its connections with the Jewish world • Adding to the labor force Orthodox men & Palestinian women
    45. 45. JIIS Changes in The Metropolitan Area From dead end to central location • Since 1967 Jerusalem has resumed its metropolitan status • During the last 40 years the metropolitan area grew rapidly to 1.6 million people, 78% are Palestinians • Strengthening the Jewish hold by new settlements
    46. 46. JIIS Changes in The Metropolitan Area From dead end to central location • Total population (including. Jer.): approx. 1.6 m. – thereof: 52% Arabs 48% Jews • Total population (Excluding Jer.) 80% Arabs 20% Jews
    47. 47. JIIS Geopolitical Issues • Old city & the Historic Basin • Boroughs system as an interim stage solution • Separation from Arab Neighborhoods • New borders to Jerusalem
    48. 48. JIIS The Historic Basin & the Old City: Suggested Principles for Negotiations • Separating the problems of the Old City & the historical basin from the rest of the negotiable issues • Postponing the subject of sovereignty over the Old City & the Historic Basin for a long time • Introducing a third party to administrate the area if the two parties are not able to reach an agreement • Leaving the city undivided physically – “living together separately” in an open city • Establishing a municipal system of self administrating boroughs - with wide “functional autonomy” until the final agreement
    49. 49. JIIS The Historic Basin 95% of the holy places in Jerusalem are within the historic basin Total area: 618 Acres
    50. 50. JIIS Historic Basin – Land Ownership Land Ownership 14 8 3 92 62 27 4 13 44 72 5 37 82 39 4 38 4 3 13 6 17 Owner Acres 2 16 Churches 235 Jewish 147 Arab private 159 Moslem Waqf 77
    51. 51. JIIS The Old City – The Core of the Conflict Religious Institutions Land Ownership
    52. 52. JIIS Municipal Boroughs Functional Autonomy De-centralization of authority to municipal boroughs Possible division into self-governing boroughs The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007
    53. 53. Separation from Arab Neighborhoods
    54. 54. New Administrative Structure JIIS for the Jerusalem Metropolitan Area Ramallah Givat A-Ram Zeev Mevaseret Zion Abu Gosh Maale Adumim Abu Dis Bet Shemesh Bethlehem Gush Etzion The metropolitan area Efrat quot;The green linequot; The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, 2007 Jerusalem – Municipal area
    55. 55. Alternative A Under Israel sovereignty: 30 % Palestinians JIIS
    56. 56. Alternative B Under Israel sovereignty: 16 % Palestinians JIIS
    57. 57. Alternative C Under Israel sovereignty: 12 % Palestinians JIIS
    58. 58. JIIS The security fence in the Jerusalem area a major change
    59. 59. JIIS Terror attacks - data • 30% of the terror attacks on Israel between 2000 - 2003 took place in the Jerusalem area • Since 1967 - close to 500 terrorist attacks in Jerusalem & its environs • Close to 3,000 casualties in Jerusalem, of which 520 were fatalities, approximately half of them during the last three years of the Intifada
    60. 60. JIIS Terror casualties Israel Jerusalem Tel Aviv Haifa Total 1967-1999 4,847 1,390 837 89 2000-2003 5,081 1,524 767 239
    61. 61. JIIS The Purpose • The sole purpose of the security fence is to provide security for the Israelis. As a fundamental self-defense measure, it is justified according to any standard. • As such, it is a response to the acts of terrorism emanating from the West Bank
    62. 62. JIIS According to IDF experts The security fence will improve the ability of the IDF to prevent: • Infiltration of terrorists • Smuggling of weapons & explosives • Infiltration of criminals • Illegal migration of Palestinians into the Israeli Arab sector • Infiltration of illegal laborers
    63. 63. Route & structure JIIS • Total planned fence - 763 Km (477 miles) • Already built - 350 Km (218 mi.) • In construction 160 Km (100mi) • The security fence is made of: 11% concrete wall, 89% fence • Concrete walls are used in built- up areas or to prevent snipers (Trans-Israel Cross Road near Qalqilya).
    64. 64. JIIS Multi-layered Obstacle Structure: • Barbed wire (six coils) • Ditch (5.5m wide) • Patrol road (5m wide) • Intrusion-detection fence (3m. high) • Dirt tracking road (to detect footprints) • Paved patrol road • 2nd dirt tracking road • Barbed wire • Sophisticated observation system Total width: 40-60m (45-67 yd.)
    65. 65. JIIS Typical section of the fence Source: Ministry of Defence
    66. 66. JIIS The Security Fence Jewish population Palestinian population Fence Route Checkpoint Jerusalem jurisdiction
    67. 67. JIIS The Route, Crossing Points Currently Executed Route Fence separating Palestinians from Palestinians, creating conflicts
    68. 68. JIIS Basic facts and problems • The fence in Jerusalem is the most dramatic change in the city since 1967 • In most cases, it follows the municipal border • The fence constitutes a transition from a virtual border back to an impermeable barrier • It will affect both Palestinians and Israelis • The fence separates mostly Palestinians from Palestinians
    69. 69. • It cuts through a living urban fabric of neighborhoods JIIS & suburbs • It encompasses Christian holy places and land owned by churches, as well as Jewish holy places such as Rachel's tomb • It separates families of the same Bedouin tribe - the Sawahra & first-degree relatives • It separates some 90,000 Palestinians holding Israeli (blue) ID cards from the city • It puts many Palestinians in uncertainty about their future status, changing their fabric of life • The Jerusalem region is observed closely by the entire world
    70. 70. JIIS Impact on the city: • Demography • Economy • Public services • Transportation & infrastructure • Metropolitan connections
    71. 71. JIIS Demographic & Social Impact • Migration of thousands of Palestinians into Jerusalem will change the demographic balance and especially: • Increase population density & occupancy rate per room • Burden public services (e.g. shortage of classrooms) • Increase migration of Palestinians from the P.A. to Jerusalem, even to Jewish neighborhoods • Increase the number of poor families • Increase social-economic gaps between communities • Disconnect people from their extended families
    72. 72. JIIS Economic Impact • Changes in real estate prices: in Jerusalem -increase, outside – decrease • Disconnection of individuals from their places of employment • Deterioration of commercial centers in the outskirts of Jerusalem • Disconnection of the city from its natural economic hinterland • Difficulties in tourist mobility
    73. 73. JIIS 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 0 500 1979 1980 1981 Thousand stays • Recovery 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 • Drop during Intifada years 1992 1993 1994 Tourism 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
    74. 74. JIIS Impact on public services • Difficulties for Jerusalemites outside the fence who will continue to use municipal services within Jerusalem (such as schools) • Difficulties in getting health services in Jerusalem • Getting to cemeteries within Jerusalem • Limited access to holy places
    75. 75. JIIS Metropolitan Issues • Since 1967 Jerusalem has resumed its metropolitan status • During the last 38 years the metropolitan area grew rapidly to 1.6 million people, 78% Palestinians
    76. 76. JIIS Metropolitan Issues (cont.) • The fence will disconnect the city from its Metropolitan area (the hinterland( • The result: weakening the city (a regression to the quot;Jerusalem corridorquot; 1948 - 1967) • Less coordination in environmental issues with the neighboring Palestinian towns & villages • Detachment from land reserves for housing in Jerusalem
    77. 77. JIIS Open Questions • What will be the status of the fence in resumed negotiations? Is it a non-starter from the Palestinian point of view? • Will it help to restore law and order in East Jerusalem? (mainly enforcement of building law) • What will be the psychological effects on Jews & Arabs? • What will be the humanitarian price of the fence?
    78. 78. JIIS • What will be the influence of the fence on the Palestinian residents’ collective identity? Accepting Israel (like Israeli Arabs) or more hostility? • What will be the policies relating to passage of people, goods and services, and who will implement it? • To what extent will the fence encourage migration (Palestinians to the city, Israelis out)? • How will the international pressure on Israel affect the route? (Ma’ale Adumim)
    79. 79. JIIS Demographic Alternative Population balance in Jerusalem Palestinian population Jewish population Barrier route Fortified road Proposed new road 179,000 Palestinian Jerusalemites east of the barrier (Palestinian side) 43,000 Palestinian Jerusalemites west of the barrier (Israeli side)
    80. 80. JIIS Life Pattern Alternative
    81. 81. JIIS Metropolitan Alternative quot;Jerusalem DCquot;
    82. 82. JIIS
    83. 83. JIIS Thank you Israel Kimhi

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