Share manthan tip poll july 2010 english

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This is a Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll conducted by Share Manthan (www.sharemanthan.in) to gauge the future prospects of the Indian stock markets.

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Share manthan tip poll july 2010 english

  1. 1. Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll<br />July 2010<br />www.sharemanthan.in<br />
  2. 2. Objectives of the Poll<br />Methodology of the Poll<br /><ul><li>The Poll was conducted among the top investment professionals of the Indian stock markets
  3. 3. The participation was based on invitation
  4. 4. There was no random selection to chose the participants, but the invitations were sent to well-known experts who usually share their views with Share Manthan
  5. 5. We received total 27 responses till the time we started analysing the data
  6. 6. Responses received after the cut-off time were not included in the analysis of data, but there views have been incorporated in this presentation</li></ul>To gauge the current mood of the Indian stock market<br />To have an idea of the future course of the Indian stock market<br />To assess the possible impact of the global events on the Indian stock markets<br />Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 <br />© www.sharemanthan.in<br />2<br />
  7. 7. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />3<br />The Galaxy of Respondents<br />* In alphabetical order<br />
  8. 8. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />4<br />Index<br />
  9. 9. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />5<br />Executive Summary<br />Nifty Targets:<br />About two-third see Nifty going beyond 6000 by the end of current fiscal year. Out of these, 18.2% see it at 6500 or even higher by March 2011.<br />55.6% see Nifty target for end of CY2010 between 5500 and 5999<br />Majority (55.6%) see Nifty bottoming out between 4500-4999 in the second half of CY2010<br />About two-third see Nifty touching a top between 5500-5999<br />India Vs. Globe<br />Overwhelming 81% expects India’s GDP growth rate to be 8% or higher in 2010-11<br />Similarly, 80% respondents see India’s GDP growth rate at 8%-plus in 2011-12<br />Less confidence on global economy as only 18.5% see it improving further in 6-12 months<br />But majority (57.7%) see less likelihood of Double Dip in global economy<br />Most of the respondents (81%) expect India to outperform global markets<br />
  10. 10. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />6<br />Nifty Targets<br />FY2010<br />CY2010<br />
  11. 11. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />7<br />Nifty Top & Bottom<br />Top for CY2010<br />Bottom for CY2010<br />
  12. 12. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />8<br />Nifty Targets<br />CY2010-endCYH2 bottomCY top FY2010-end<br />Nifty Targets<br />
  13. 13. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />9<br />India’s GDP Growth Rate<br />FY2010-11<br />FY2011-12<br />
  14. 14. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />10<br />Global Economic Outlook<br />Global economy expected to:<br />India Vs Global Markets (6-12 Months)<br />Double Dip in global economy:<br />
  15. 15. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />11<br />High Hopes For Growth<br />FY2010-11FY2011-12<br />India’s Growth rate<br />
  16. 16. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />12<br />Outperforming Sectors <br />for next 6 months<br />
  17. 17. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />13<br />Underperforming Sectors <br />for next 6 months<br />
  18. 18. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />14<br />Indian markets will move largely with global trends.<br />Situation looks stable. Oil decontrol is positive and markets hopes govt would not backtrack. Given the currency outlook, especially USD and Euro, we expect markets to witness good inflow from FIIs.<br />Sharmila Joshi, Emkay Global<br />Markets are very volatile and very opportunistic!<br />SubramanyamPisupati,<br />ITI Financial Services<br />SushilKedia, ATMA<br />sideways Range bound<br />Stable with upward bias..<br />It would be tough to maintain the upward momentum.<br />SaurabhMittal, <br />Swadeshi Credits<br />PrakashGaba, <br />Technical Analyst<br />NiteshChand, <br />Sykes & Ray Equities<br />
  19. 19. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />15<br />Overall markets looks extremely positive, specially Indian Stocks, provided we don’t see any major negative event happening in rest of the world.<br />We expect markets to be volatile in a 6-9 month period as global noises would continue to impact markets. However, from a 2-5 year perspective, markets would be do extremely well given the kind of growth Indian equities would offer along with better macro-economic structure.<br />Ram M. Gupta, Unicon Financial<br />First a peak of 5470-5530 by 2nd week of July and then a big fall up to 3500-4000 by October 2010<br />ArunKejriwal, KRIS<br />PankajPandey, <br />ICICI Securities<br />Very very volatile and directly dependent on world markets.<br />Indian market will remain quite volatile in synergy with global markets.<br />SanjeevAgarwal, <br />Dynamix Research<br />R. K. Gupta,<br />Taurus Asset Management Co.<br />
  20. 20. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />16<br />Cautiously optimistic. Global concerns remain with respect to recovery in US, growth in China, Eurozone issues, while domestic economy continue to be robust in the wake of good demand growth, good capital flows and likelihood of capex cycle turning. Few earnings upgrades expected and current valuations would restrict the funds flow to the market. Any global turbulance would impact India also maybe in smaller measure but sentimentally markets in India would also follow suit.<br />DevenChoksey,<br />K.R. Choksey Securities<br />Market is expected to operate under the influence of liquidity challenges posed by restructuring moves taken by governments of Euro Zone countries, China and USA. Intermittent liquidity jerks would keep markets range bound between 5155-5450 in short term. Once this range id broken, it will have 5% movement in the direction of it broke out. We at KRChoksey believe in buying on lows and selling on rise to earn the required rate of return from equity in CFY 10-11. <br />Ashok K. Aggarwal, <br />Escorts Securities<br />
  21. 21. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />17<br />The Nifty is in a 600 point upward trend. Thus on the upside, if we break above 5515, then it will be a major break out move. However, if we break below 4900, then we will fall sharply to 4300.<br />Overall positive <br />on the market. Sensex target of 30000 in 2014<br />GulTeckchandani,<br />Investment Advisor<br />Anil Manghnani, Modern Shares<br />Market will remain range bound, not very bullish, <br />but global demand will push Indian markets<br />We are very bearish on Indian and global stock markets. The global debt bubble, which had caused the market crash of 2007-09 has only got worse in last 1 year. We expect a structural deleveraging to happen, which will kill the corporate profitability globally. India will also fully participate in global carnage like it did in 2008.<br />Ajay Bagga,<br />Deutsche Bank<br />Positive in medium term. Overbought for short term.<br />Gopal K. Agarwal, <br />Voguestock<br />AmitGoel,<br />Pace Stock<br />
  22. 22. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />18<br />Our Mkt will attract more and bigger inflows, leading to sustained rally barring some intermediate corrections. Overall positive.<br />Stable - Slow movement of Index to higher levels.<br />Time to identify neglected, <br />under-owned spaces.<br />N Jayakumar,<br />Prime Securities<br />D. D. Sharma, AnandRathi Fin.<br />Challenging, <br />difficult to make money.<br />SudipBandyopadhyay,<br />Convexity Solutions<br />Short term volatile. Medium to long term bullish<br />Indian economy is outperforming the world markets because of its less dependence on exports. If an investor is confident of double digit return, the capital flow shall be robust and this is what the Indian Stock Market shall provide. Despite global ups and downs, except the Act of God or some serious political turmoil or ridiculous policies, the Indian economy is poised for quantum jump till 2013.<br />P. K. Aggarwal, <br />Purpleline Investment<br />Advisors<br />JagdishThakkar,<br />Fortune Fiscal<br />
  23. 23. Share Manthan Top Investment Professionals (TIP) Poll – July 2010 © www.sharemanthan.in<br />19<br />We have become mirror of global economy and global outlook looks unstable . India will continue to attract positive outflow of funds. Markets look volatile for next 6 months before taking big leap towards 18000-20000 by end of current calendar year.<br />DharmeshPancholi, <br />Yashika<br />Markets look very positive and any correction due to any international news will provide very good investment opportunity. It may appear that India is not decoupled from the world markets, but at the end of the year, gap between the world markets and Indian markets will prove that we are decoupled. <br />AshishKukreja,<br />Phinnacle Wealth<br />Global markets will continue to have a hangover on the Indian Markets<br />K. K. Mital,<br />Globe Capital<br />AshuuKakkarr,<br />ashuukakkarr.com<br />Sideways with positive bias. <br />Buy on dips.<br />My view is cautious for this year 2011. We will do well domestically, <br />and globally we will be the best country to invest.<br />Salil Sharma,<br />Kapur Sharma & Co.<br />

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