Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
SOFTWARE	
  &	
  SYSTEMS	
  
	
  DESIGN	
  
Why	
  ultra-­‐low	
  power	
  com...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
RevoluXon	
  
2	
  
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
3	
  
Cheap	
  
Smart	
  
Small	
  
Connected	
  
Low	
  power	
  +	
  
Self	
...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
CONSIDER	
  THE	
  POSSIBILITIES	
  
hSp://proteusdigitalhealth.com/technology...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
Research	
  quesXon:	
  	
  How	
  has	
  the	
  energy	
  efficiency	
  
of	
  ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
MOORE’S	
  LAW	
  
•  Not	
  a	
  “law”	
  but	
  an	
  empirical	
  observaXo...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
MOORE’S	
  ORIGINAL	
  GRAPH	
  
7	
  
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
TRANSISTORS/CHIP	
  (000S)	
  
The	
  doubling	
  Xme	
  from	
  1971	
  to	
 ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
How	
  to	
  measure	
  the	
  energy	
  efficiency	
  of	
  
computaXon?	
  
9	...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
METHOD	
  
•  ComputaXons	
  per	
  kWh	
  =	
  
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
DATA	
  
•  Performance	
  from	
  Nordhaus	
  (2007)	
  or	
  
normalized	
  ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
Doubling	
  Xme	
  for	
  performance	
  per	
  
computer	
  =	
  1.5	
  years...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
PERFORMANCE	
  TRENDS	
  (2):	
  
COMPUTATIONS/S/COMPUTER	
  
Source:	
  Nordh...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
REAL	
  POWER	
  MEASUREMENTS	
  
OF	
  REAL	
  COMPUTERS	
  
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
COMPUTING	
  EFFICIENCY	
  
• Doubling	
  about	
  every	
  
year	
  and	
  a	...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
GOOD	
  CORRELATION,	
  CLEAR	
  RESULTS	
  
•  R2	
  for	
  computaXons/kWh	
...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
IMPLICATIONS	
  
•  AcXons	
  taken	
  to	
  improve	
  performance	
  also	
 ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
LAPTOPS	
  GROWING	
  FAST	
  (WORLD	
  
INSTALLED	
  BASE,	
  MILLIONS)	
  
S...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
IT’S	
  NOT	
  JUST	
  ABOUT	
  COMPUTING	
  
EFFICIENCY	
  	
  
•  Low	
  pow...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
REDUCE	
  AREA	
  UNDER	
  THE	
  CURVE	
  
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
A	
  MICROCONTROLLER	
  “RACE”	
  
Source: Eduardo Montanez, Freescale Semicon...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
EFFICIENCY	
  OF	
  SIMPLE	
  CELL	
  PHONES	
  
OVER	
  TIME	
  
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
AN	
  EXAMPLE	
  OF	
  MOBILE	
  COMPUTING	
  +	
  
COMMUNICATIONS	
  ENABLED	...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
HOW	
  ABOUT	
  REALLY	
  LOW	
  POWER	
  
SENSORS?	
  
•  Consider	
  the	
  ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
UNIVERSITY	
  OF	
  MICHIGAN	
  MICRO-­‐MOTE	
  
Slide	
  courtesy	
  of	
  Da...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
TUMOR	
  PRESSURE	
  MONITORING	
  
Slide	
  courtesy	
  of	
  David	
  Blaauw...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
STREETLINE	
  NETWORKS:	
  SMART	
  
PARKING,	
  SMART	
  CITIES	
  
Slide	
  ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
STREETLINE	
  NETWORKS:	
  SMART	
  
PARKING,	
  SMART	
  CITIES	
  
Slide	
  ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
STREETLINE	
  NETWORKS:	
  	
  
VARIABLE	
  PARKING	
  SIGNS	
  
Slide	
  cour...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
DEEPER	
  IMPLICATIONS	
  
• Move	
  bits,	
  not	
  atoms	
  
• Customized	
 ...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
THESE	
  TRENDS	
  STILL	
  HAVE	
  A	
  LONG	
  
WAY	
  TO	
  RUN	
  
Psssst:...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
BIG	
  UNANSWERED	
  QUESTIONS	
  
•  Could	
  we	
  do	
  beSer	
  than	
  hi...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
CONCLUSIONS	
  
•  QuanXtaXve	
  results	
  
–  In	
  the	
  PC	
  era	
  (197...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
Viva	
  la	
  Revolución!	
  
34	
  
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
THANKS!	
  
•  Rob	
  Bernard,	
  Microsof	
  (funder)	
  
•  Lorie	
  Wigle,	...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
FURTHER	
  READING	
  
Koomey,	
  Jonathan	
  G.,	
  Stephen	
  Berard,	
  Mar...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
REFERENCES	
  
•  Feynman,	
  Richard	
  P.	
  2001.	
  The	
  Pleasure	
  of	...
Copyright	
  Jonathan	
  Koomey	
  2012	
  
REFERENCES	
  (2)	
  
•  Yoonmyung,	
  Lee,	
  Kim	
  Gyouho,	
  Bang	
  Suyou...
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Koomey on why ultra-low power computing will change everything

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This talk summarizes the implications of long-term trends in the efficiency of computing, communications, energy storage, and energy harvesting. It's one of my favorites! It took place on October 31, 2012.

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Koomey on why ultra-low power computing will change everything

  1. 1. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   SOFTWARE  &  SYSTEMS    DESIGN   Why  ultra-­‐low  power  compu1ng   will  change  everything   Jonathan  Koomey   Research  Fellow,  Steyer-­‐Taylor  Center  for  Energy   Policy  and  Finance,  Stanford  University   jgkoomey@stanford.edu   hSp://www.koomey.com   ARM  Tech  Con,  San  Jose,  CA   October  31,  2012  
  2. 2. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   RevoluXon   2  
  3. 3. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   3   Cheap   Smart   Small   Connected   Low  power  +   Self  powered  
  4. 4. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   CONSIDER  THE  POSSIBILITIES   hSp://proteusdigitalhealth.com/technology/  
  5. 5. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   Research  quesXon:    How  has  the  energy  efficiency   of  compuXng  changed  over  Xme?   5  
  6. 6. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   MOORE’S  LAW   •  Not  a  “law”  but  an  empirical  observaXon   about  components/chip     – 1965:    doubling  every  year   – 1975:  doubling  every  2  years   •  Characterizes  economics  of  chip   producXon,  not  physical  limits   •  Ofen  imprecisely  cited,  interpretaXons   changed  over  Xme  (Mollick  2006)  
  7. 7. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   MOORE’S  ORIGINAL  GRAPH   7  
  8. 8. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   TRANSISTORS/CHIP  (000S)   The  doubling  Xme  from  1971  to  2006  is  about  1.8  years.    Data  source:  James  Larus,  Microsof  CorporaXon.   8  
  9. 9. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   How  to  measure  the  energy  efficiency  of   computaXon?   9  
  10. 10. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   METHOD   •  ComputaXons  per  kWh  =  
  11. 11. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   DATA   •  Performance  from  Nordhaus  (2007)  or   normalized  to  that  source  using   benchmarks  for  more  recent  computers   •  Used  measured  power  data,  either   published  (e.g.  Weik  1955,  1961,  1964)  or   from  archival  or  recent  computers   – with  computer  fully  uXlized   – with  screen  power  subtracted  for  portables  
  12. 12. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   Doubling  Xme  for  performance  per   computer  =  1.5  years  in  the  PC  era   12  
  13. 13. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   PERFORMANCE  TRENDS  (2):   COMPUTATIONS/S/COMPUTER   Source:  Nordhaus  (2007)   with  addiXonal  data   added  by  Koomey  (2009b)  
  14. 14. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   REAL  POWER  MEASUREMENTS   OF  REAL  COMPUTERS  
  15. 15. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   COMPUTING  EFFICIENCY   • Doubling  about  every   year  and  a  half  since  the   1940s   • 100x  improvement  every   decade   • Enabled  the  existence  of   laptops  and  smart  phones  
  16. 16. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   GOOD  CORRELATION,  CLEAR  RESULTS   •  R2  for  computaXons/kWh   – 0.983  for  all  computers,  1946-­‐2009   – 0.970  for  PCs,  1975-­‐2009   •  Doubling  Xme  for  computaXons/kWh   – All  computers:  1.6  years   – PCs:  1.5  years   – Vacuum  tubes:  1.35  years   •  Big  jump  from  tubes  to  transistors  
  17. 17. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   IMPLICATIONS   •  AcXons  taken  to  improve  performance  also   improve  computaXons  per  kWh   –  Transistors:  Smaller,  shorter  distance  source  to   drain,  fewer  electrons   –  Tubes:    Smaller,  less  capacitance,  lower  currents     •  Trends  make  mobile  and  distributed   compuXng  ever  more  feasible  (baSery  life  up   100x  per  decade  at  constant  compuXng   power)      
  18. 18. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   LAPTOPS  GROWING  FAST  (WORLD   INSTALLED  BASE,  MILLIONS)   Sources—1985:  Arstechnica  +  Koomey  calcs    1996-­‐2008:  IDC  
  19. 19. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   IT’S  NOT  JUST  ABOUT  COMPUTING   EFFICIENCY     •  Low  power  >  high  efficiency     •  RevoluXon  is  being  driven  by  the   confluence  of  trends  allowing  low-­‐power   – compuXng   – communicaXons   – sensors   – controls   •  Energy  harvesXng  and  storage  also  criXcal   •  Idle  modes  more  important  than  acXve  
  20. 20. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   REDUCE  AREA  UNDER  THE  CURVE  
  21. 21. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   A  MICROCONTROLLER  “RACE”   Source: Eduardo Montanez, Freescale Semiconductor (microcontroller is ARM  ®  Cortex™-­‐m0+  core)
  22. 22. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   EFFICIENCY  OF  SIMPLE  CELL  PHONES   OVER  TIME  
  23. 23. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   AN  EXAMPLE  OF  MOBILE  COMPUTING  +   COMMUNICATIONS  ENABLED  BY  EFFICIENCY   http://www.bigbellysolar.com • Compacts trash 5 x • Sends text message when full • PV panel generates power from sunlight • An economic and environmental home run
  24. 24. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   HOW  ABOUT  REALLY  LOW  POWER   SENSORS?   •  Consider  the  wireless  no-­‐baSery   sensors  created  by  Joshua  R.   Smith  of  the  University  of   Washington   hSp://www.nyXmes.com/2010/07/18/business/18novel.html,   hSp://www.economist.com/node/16295708   –  sensors  use  60  microwaSs  on   average  (60x10-­‐6  waSs)   –  scavenge  power  from  radio  and  TV   signals   •  Other  possible  power  sources   for  similar  devices:    light,  heat,   moXon,  blood  sugar,  digesXve   fluids   Images courtesy of Josh Smith, U of WA
  25. 25. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   UNIVERSITY  OF  MICHIGAN  MICRO-­‐MOTE   Slide  courtesy  of  David  Blaauw  and  Dennis  Sylvester,  U  of  MI     P=11nW  sleep,  40  μW  acXve,  ARM®  M0  core  
  26. 26. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   TUMOR  PRESSURE  MONITORING   Slide  courtesy  of  David  Blaauw  and  Dennis  Sylvester,  U  of  MI    
  27. 27. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   STREETLINE  NETWORKS:  SMART   PARKING,  SMART  CITIES   Slide  courtesy  of  Mark  Noworolski,  Streetline  Networks   Motes  use     <400μW  on     average.    For  LA,   With  40,000  parking   spots,  that  implies   total  mote  power   of  about  15W.   Mote  technology   is  from  Dust     Networks  
  28. 28. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   STREETLINE  NETWORKS:  SMART   PARKING,  SMART  CITIES   Slide  courtesy  of  Mark  Noworolski,  Streetline  Networks  
  29. 29. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   STREETLINE  NETWORKS:     VARIABLE  PARKING  SIGNS   Slide  courtesy  of  Mark  Noworolski,  Streetline  Networks  
  30. 30. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   DEEPER  IMPLICATIONS   • Move  bits,  not  atoms   • Customized  data  collecXon  (focus  on  nanodata,   not  big  data)   • Ever  more  precise  control  of  processes   • Real-­‐Xme  analysis   • Enabling  “the  internet  of  things”   • Bo#om  line:    beSer  matching  of  energy  services   demanded  with  those  supplied,  beSer  real-­‐Xme   control,  and  beSer  analysis.  
  31. 31. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   THESE  TRENDS  STILL  HAVE  A  LONG   WAY  TO  RUN   Psssst:    Researchers  at   Purdue  and  the  University   of  New  South  Wales   recently  created  a  reliable   one  atom  transistor…   2041  
  32. 32. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   BIG  UNANSWERED  QUESTIONS   •  Could  we  do  beSer  than  historical  trends?   •  Might  we  do  worse?    If  so,  why?   •  What’s  next  as  we  approach  theoreXcal   limits?  
  33. 33. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   CONCLUSIONS   •  QuanXtaXve  results   –  In  the  PC  era  (1976-­‐2009)  performance  per  computer   and  computaXons  per  kWh  doubled  every  1.5  years   –  From  ENIAC  to  the  present,  computaXons  per  kWh   doubled  every  1.6  years   •  Performance  and  efficiency  improvements   inextricably  linked   •  SXll  far  from  theoreXcal  limits   •  Big  implicaXons  for  mobile  technologies   •  The  future  belongs  to  low  power  systems!  
  34. 34. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   Viva  la  Revolución!   34  
  35. 35. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   THANKS!   •  Rob  Bernard,  Microsof  (funder)   •  Lorie  Wigle,  Intel  (funder)   •  Stephen  Berard  of  Microsof  (coauthor)   •  Marla  Sanchez  of  LBNL  and  CMU  (coauthor),  and   •  Henry  Wong  of  Intel  (coauthor)   •  The  Computer  History  Museum   •  IEEE  Annals  of  the  History  of  Compu8ng  
  36. 36. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   FURTHER  READING   Koomey,  Jonathan  G.,  Stephen  Berard,  Marla  Sanchez,  and  Henry  Wong.  2011.   "ImplicaXons  of  Historical  Trends  in  the  Electrical  Efficiency  of  CompuXng."     IEEE  Annals  of  the  History  of  Compu8ng.    vol.  33,  no.  3.  July-­‐September.  pp.   46-­‐54.  [hSp://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28]   Koomey,    Jonathan.  2012.  "The  CompuXng  Trend  that  Will  Change  Everything."  In   Technology   Review.   April   2.   [hSp://www.technologyreview.com/news/ 427444/the-­‐compuXng-­‐trend-­‐that-­‐will-­‐change-­‐everything/]   Greene,  Kate.  2011.  "A  New  and  Improved  Moore's  Law."  In  Technology  Review.   September   12.   [hSp://www.technologyreview.com/compuXng/38548/? p1=A1]   Eisenberg,  Anne.  2010.  "Bye-­‐Bye  BaSeries:  Radio  Waves  as  a  Low-­‐Power  Source."   The   New   York   Times.     New   York,   NY.     July   18.   p.   BU3.   [hSp:// www.nyXmes.com/2010/07/18/business/18novel.html]  
  37. 37. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   REFERENCES   •  Feynman,  Richard  P.  2001.  The  Pleasure  of  Finding  Things  Out:    The  Best  Short  Works  of  Richard  P.   Feynman.  London,  UK:  Penguin  Books.     •  Hilbert,  MarXn,  and  Priscila  López.  2011.  "The  World's  Technological  Capacity  to  Store,   Communicate,  and  Compute  InformaXon."    Science.    vol.  332,  no.  6025.  April  1.  pp.  60-­‐65.     •  Koomey,  Jonathan.  2008.  "Worldwide  electricity  used  in  data  centers."    Environmental  Research   Le#ers.  vol.  3,  no.  034008.  September  23.  <h#p://stacks.iop.org/1748-­‐9326/3/034008>.   •  Koomey,  Jonathan  G.,  ChrisXan  Belady,  Michael  PaSerson,  Anthony  Santos,  and  Klaus-­‐Dieter  Lange.   2009a.  Assessing  trends  over  8me  in  performance,  costs,  and  energy  use  for  servers.  Oakland,  CA:   AnalyXcs  Press.    August  17.  <hSp://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/ecotech>.       •  Koomey,  Jonathan  G.,  Stephen  Berard,  Marla  Sanchez,  and  Henry  Wong.  2011.  "ImplicaXons  of   Historical  Trends  in  The  Electrical  Efficiency  of  CompuXng."    IEEE  Annals  of  the  History  of   Compu8ng.    vol.  33,  no.  3.  July-­‐September.  pp.  2-­‐10.    <hSps://files.me.com/jgkoomey/u0zi7l>   •  Koomey,  Jonathan.  2011.  Growth  in  data  center  electricity  use  2005  to  2010.  Oakland,  CA:  AnalyXcs   Press.    August  1.  <hSp://www.analyXcspress.com/datacenters.html>   •  Mollick,  Ethan.  2006.  "Establishing  Moore’s  Law."    IEEE  Annals  of  the  History  of  Compu8ng   (Published  by  the  IEEE  Computer  Society).    July-­‐September.  pp.  62-­‐75.    
  38. 38. Copyright  Jonathan  Koomey  2012   REFERENCES  (2)   •  Yoonmyung,  Lee,  Kim  Gyouho,  Bang  Suyoung,  Kim  Yejoong,  Lee  Inhee,  P.  DuSa,  D.  Sylvester,  and  D.   Blaauw.  2012.  A  modular  1mm3  die-­‐stacked  sensing  pla]orm  with  op8cal  communica8on  and   mul8-­‐modal  energy  harves8ng.  Proceedings  of  the  Solid-­‐State  Circuits  Conference  Digest  of   Technical  Papers  (ISSCC),  2012  IEEE  InternaXonal.    19-­‐23  Feb.  2012.    [hSp://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/ mostRecentIssue.jsp?punumber=6171933]     •  Moore,  Gordon  E.  1965.  "Cramming  more  components  onto  integrated  circuits."  In  Electronics.  April   19.     •  Moore,  Gordon  E.  1975.  "Progress  in  Digital  Integrated  Electronics."    IEEE,  IEDM  Tech  Digest.    pp.   11-­‐13.  <hSp://www.ieee.org/>   •  Nordhaus,  William  D.  2007.  "Two  Centuries  of  ProducXvity  Growth  in  CompuXng."    The  Journal  of   Economic  History.    vol.  67,  no.  1.  March.  pp.  128-­‐159.  <hSp://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/ recent_stuff.html>   •  Weik,  MarXn  H.  1955.  A  Survey  of  Domes8c  Electronic  Digital  Compu8ng  Systems.  Aberdeen   Proving  Ground,  Maryland:  BallisXc  Research  Laboratories.  Report  No.  971.    December.  <hSp://ed-­‐ thelen.org/comp-­‐hist/BRL.html>   •  Weik,  MarXn  H.  1961.  A  Third  Survey  of  Domes8c  Electronic  Digital  Compu8ng  Systems.  Aberdeen   Proving  Ground,  Maryland:  BallisXc  Research  Laboratories.  Report  No.  1115.    March.  <hSp://ed-­‐ thelen.org/comp-­‐hist/BRL61.html>   •  Weik,  MarXn  H.  1964.  A  Fourth  Survey  of  Domes8c  Electronic  Digital  Compu8ng  Systems   (Supplement  to  the  Third  Survey).  Aberdeen  Proving  Ground,  Maryland:  BallisXc  Research   Laboratories.  Report  No.  1227.    January.  <hSp://ed-­‐thelen.org/comp-­‐hist/BRL64.html>  

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