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Decisions and Time in the Information Society Jesse Marsh Atelier Studio Associato [email_address]
Time and Policy-making <ul><li>Time to read the environment </li></ul><ul><li>Time to define a strategy </li></ul><ul><li>...
Time and the Info-society <ul><li>Pace of change </li></ul><ul><li>Moore’s law </li></ul><ul><li>Non-linear processes </li...
Time and Rules of the game <ul><li>Super Mario vs. chess </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability to shocks </li></ul><ul><li>Insta...
Linear to Developmental <ul><li>Effectiveness: change timespan   > policy intervention </li></ul><ul><li>Effectiveness: ch...
Time’s blackmail <ul><li>What about: change timespan   < policy intervention? </li></ul><ul><li>Do policy interventions ta...
From buying to shaping <ul><li>Example: send a man to the moon; Messina bridge </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: the Information...
Predicting Rule-sets <ul><li>What is an image? </li></ul><ul><li>Future rule-sets imply changed behaviour of socio-technic...
Predicting Rule-sets <ul><li>Importance of verifying the relation between predicted rule-sets and emerging rule-sets </li>...
Fractal Extension <ul><li>Object of image-based policy is not a concrete entity </li></ul><ul><li>Means of image-based pol...
Fractal Extension <ul><li>Fractal extension of rule-set images </li></ul>READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE R t+1 E D R t+1 R t (t...
Decoding <ul><li>What about t+n? </li></ul><ul><li>Need to predict other actors’ images of future rule-sets </li></ul><ul>...
Decoding READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE E D R t+1 R t (t+1 -> t) VERIFY READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE R t+2 R t (t+2 -> t) VERIFY...
Validation <ul><li>Verify </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Qualitative ex-post evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Do what degree d...
Open Issues <ul><li>How to promote sustainable lifestyles? </li></ul><ul><li>Social engineering? Need for democratic contr...
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Decisions and Time in the Information Society

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Policy Paper
"In Search of Time" Conference
ISIDA, Palermo (IT)
9 May 2003

Published in: Economy & Finance, Education
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Decisions and Time in the Information Society

  1. 1. Decisions and Time in the Information Society Jesse Marsh Atelier Studio Associato [email_address]
  2. 2. Time and Policy-making <ul><li>Time to read the environment </li></ul><ul><li>Time to define a strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Time to build consensus </li></ul><ul><li>Time to approve </li></ul><ul><li>Time to finance </li></ul><ul><li>Time to implement </li></ul><ul><li>Time to evaluate </li></ul>
  3. 3. Time and the Info-society <ul><li>Pace of change </li></ul><ul><li>Moore’s law </li></ul><ul><li>Non-linear processes </li></ul><ul><li>Systemic reflexivity </li></ul><ul><li>Complexities of globalisation </li></ul><ul><li>Reversal of the value chain </li></ul>
  4. 4. Time and Rules of the game <ul><li>Super Mario vs. chess </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability to shocks </li></ul><ul><li>Instability of rule-sets </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty of outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>“ Interactive” policy? </li></ul>
  5. 5. Linear to Developmental <ul><li>Effectiveness: change timespan > policy intervention </li></ul><ul><li>Effectiveness: change timespan = policy intervention </li></ul>ENVIRONMENT DECISION ACTION LINEAR POLICY MODEL ENVIRONMENT DECISION ACTION DEVELOPMENTAL POLICY MODEL
  6. 6. Time’s blackmail <ul><li>What about: change timespan < policy intervention? </li></ul><ul><li>Do policy interventions take too long? </li></ul><ul><li>Are “bottom-up” methods an answer? </li></ul><ul><li>Who can policy-makers control? </li></ul><ul><li>What does policy produce anyway? </li></ul>
  7. 7. From buying to shaping <ul><li>Example: send a man to the moon; Messina bridge </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: the Information “Superhighway”; the Euro </li></ul>ENVIRONMENT DECISION ACTION BUY READ VERIFY SPHERE OF POLICY INTERVENTION ENVIRONMENT DECISION EVENTS READ VERIFY IMAGE FORMULATE SHAPE
  8. 8. Predicting Rule-sets <ul><li>What is an image? </li></ul><ul><li>Future rule-sets imply changed behaviour of socio-technical systems </li></ul><ul><li>Collective creativity can be stimulated, but not planned </li></ul><ul><li>“ Enabling” actions, leverage effects, social amplifiers </li></ul><ul><li>How to verify that things went right? </li></ul>
  9. 9. Predicting Rule-sets <ul><li>Importance of verifying the relation between predicted rule-sets and emerging rule-sets </li></ul>READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE R t+1 E D R t+1 R t (t+1 -> t) VERIFY t = any given time 1 = time of a single policy-making cycle
  10. 10. Fractal Extension <ul><li>Object of image-based policy is not a concrete entity </li></ul><ul><li>Means of image-based policy is not laws or money </li></ul><ul><li>Subject of image-based policy is social systems </li></ul><ul><li>Decision-making (innovation) in social systems is through propagation </li></ul><ul><li>Everybody “makes policy” </li></ul>
  11. 11. Fractal Extension <ul><li>Fractal extension of rule-set images </li></ul>READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE R t+1 E D R t+1 R t (t+1 -> t) VERIFY READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE R t+2 R t (t+2 -> t) VERIFY (t+1 +1 = t+2) R t+2 D
  12. 12. Decoding <ul><li>What about t+n? </li></ul><ul><li>Need to predict other actors’ images of future rule-sets </li></ul><ul><li>Decoding weak signals </li></ul><ul><li>t+n must be sound and compelling but also light, quick, flexible </li></ul>
  13. 13. Decoding READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE E D R t+1 R t (t+1 -> t) VERIFY READ MONITOR PREDICT SHAPE R t+2 R t (t+2 -> t) VERIFY (t+1 +1 = t+2) DECODE R t+1 R t+2 D R t+1
  14. 14. Validation <ul><li>Verify </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Qualitative ex-post evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Do what degree do new rule sets correspond to predicted ones? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Monitor </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Process evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What new rule sets are emerging? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Decode </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pre-emptive evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What new rule sets are field actors predicting? </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Open Issues <ul><li>How to promote sustainable lifestyles? </li></ul><ul><li>Social engineering? Need for democratic control </li></ul><ul><li>Resistance to dematerialisation of politics </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of attitude to long-term thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Time for reflection </li></ul>

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