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VR and AR: 2016, 2020, and 2025

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Keynote address from VRX 2015

Published in: Technology

VR and AR: 2016, 2020, and 2025

  1. 1. VR and AR: 2016, 2020, 2025 Jesse Schell VRX 2015
  2. 2. CrystalBallSociety.com
  3. 3. Market
  4. 4. Prediction 1: Starting in 2016, VR headsets will be in the consumer market permanently
  5. 5. ?=1M 300K x 10 = 3M 10% of 40M = 4M Prediction 2: In 2016, eight million gamer headsets will be sold.
  6. 6. Prediction 3: In general, there will be four mobile headsets for each gamer headset.
  7. 7. Prediction 4: Headset sales will double each year until saturation is reached. Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Gamer VR 8M 16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M Mobile VR 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1B 2B Note: By 2020, there will be about one billion PC/Console gamers, and about four billion smartphone users.
  8. 8. Prediction 5: Fifty different headsets will be featured at CES 2017.
  9. 9. Prediction 6: Through 2018, overheating VR phones will still be a problem. Freezing them will be common.
  10. 10. Prediction 7: As soon as Sony sells 10M headsets, Microsoft will announce one for XBoxOne (probably E3 2018).
  11. 11. Games
  12. 12. Prediction 8: An asymmetric party game will be a top ten VR game by end of 2017.
  13. 13. Prediction 9: Madden 2018 will have a VR edition.
  14. 14. Prediction 10: By the end of 2018, a major new VR-centric game genre will appear.
  15. 15. Fears
  16. 16. Prediction 11: By the end of 2017, the media will blame at least one mass shooting on a VR game.
  17. 17. Prediction 12: By end of 2017, news stories about “VR Addiction” will be frequent.
  18. 18. Prediction 13: By the end of 2018, there will be at least three movies playing on fears of VR.
  19. 19. Filmmaking
  20. 20. Prediction 14: Documentaries will be the first VR films to win major awards.
  21. 21. Prediction 15: By 2020, VR porn will be a $1B industry worldwide.
  22. 22. Prediction 16: By 2020, there will be at least ten Virtual Reality Reality Shows.
  23. 23. Prediction 17: The Divine Comedy will provide a model for successful VR storytelling.
  24. 24. Prediction 18: By end of 2018, will have a VR channel.
  25. 25. Prediction 19: For feature films to work in VR, they will need to be social. We’ll figure this out by 2025.
  26. 26. Social
  27. 27. Prediction 20: By 2025, the majority of VR revenue will be from social experiences.
  28. 28. Prediction 21: By 2020, one of the top ten VR games will be a dance game.
  29. 29. Prediction 22: By 2025, VR/AR Boardgames will be a $100M business.
  30. 30. Prediction 23: By end of 2020, at least one VR MMO will have > 1M subscribers.
  31. 31. Prediction 24: By the end of 2018, there will be a leading VR social platform, and it won’t be the old guard.
  32. 32. Prediction 25: By 2018, VR Emotes will be very popular, and have a stupid name.
  33. 33. LBE
  34. 34. Prediction 26: In 2017, every US State Fair will have a VR Attraction.
  35. 35. Give them something they can’t get at home. Rule #1:
  36. 36. Prediction 27: By 2020 There will be at least 20 VR coasters worldwide.
  37. 37. Prediction 28: By 2025 Bowling with AR Glasses will be a thing.
  38. 38. Touch
  39. 39. Prediction 29: By 2020, trackable props for VR and AR will be common.
  40. 40. Prediction 30: Also in 2020, trackable snacks.
  41. 41. Prediction 31: In 2025, Robots will touch you in VR and you’ll like it.
  42. 42. Augmented Reality
  43. 43. Prediction 32: by 2025, 80% of VR/AR devices will be one or the other, not both.
  44. 44. Prediction 33: AR experiences synced with TV will be a thing.
  45. 45. Prediction 34: Augmented reality lectures popular by 2025
  46. 46. Prediction 35: By 2025, chasing phantoms in your house will be only for children.
  47. 47. Technology
  48. 48. Prediction 36: By 2018, gamers will wear narrow glasses or get contacts.
  49. 49. Prediction 37: By 2020, really hardcore gamers will have prescription lenses.
  50. 50. Pred. 38: By 2020, Eye tracking VR headsets will be available.
  51. 51. Pred. 39: By 2020, Foveated Rendering will exist. By 2025, it will be useful.
  52. 52. Pred. 40: By 2025, There will be no more corded VR systems.
  53. 53. Thanks! Slides: jesseschell.com Twitter: @jesseschell Email: jesse@schellgames.com

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