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Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future

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Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future

  1. 1. Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future Jesse Schell @jesseschell TFNW 2015
  2. 2. $ $ $ $ $ $
  3. 3. + = PsychologyTechnology Destiny
  4. 4. CrystalBallSociety.com
  5. 5. 5 patterns
  6. 6. Pattern1 Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes
  7. 7. FOUNDATION Decoration
  8. 8. Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?
  9. 9. Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)
  10. 10. Plane Crazy (May, 1928)
  11. 11. Pattern2 The Hype Curve
  12. 12. The Hype Curve
  13. 13. Pattern3 Disruption
  14. 14. Pattern4 Technology Mostly Diverges
  15. 15. Pattern5 History Keeps Repeating
  16. 16. 1849!
  17. 17. 2011 Palmer Luckey (age 20) 1968 Ivan Sutherland 1884 Nipkow Disk 1927 Philo Farnsworth (age 20) TV VR 43 Years Later 43 Years Later
  18. 18. Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes The Hype Curve Disruption Technology Mostly Diverges History Keeps Repeating5 4 3 1 2 Send your predictions to me! Jesse@SchellGames.com Thanks! Find slides at: JesseSchell.com

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