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40 VR/AR Predictions - GDC 2016

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Jesse Schell predicts the future of VR and AR!

Published in: Technology

40 VR/AR Predictions - GDC 2016

  1. 1. 40 Predictions for VR/AR through 2025 Jesse Schell GDC 2016
  2. 2. Market
  3. 3. Prediction 1: Starting in 2016, VR headsets will be in the consumer market permanently
  4. 4. ?=1M 300K x 10 = 3M 10% of 40M = 4M Prediction 2: By end of 2017, eight million gamer headsets will have been sold.
  5. 5. Prediction 3: In general, there will be four mobile headsets for each gamer headset.
  6. 6. Prediction 4: Headset sales will double each year until saturation is reached. Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Gamer VR 8M 16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M Mobile VR 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1B 2B Note: By 2020, there will be about one billion PC/Console gamers, and about four billion smartphone users.
  7. 7. Prediction 5: Fifty different headsets will be featured at CES 2017.
  8. 8. Prediction 6: As soon as Sony sells 10M headsets, Microsoft will announce one for XBoxOne (probably E3 2018).
  9. 9. Prediction 7: By 2022, the majority of VR Revenue will be spent on Portable, Self- Contained VR systems that are not phones.
  10. 10. Games
  11. 11. Prediction 8: An asymmetric party game will be a top ten VR game by end of 2017.
  12. 12. Prediction 9: Madden 2018 will have a VR edition.
  13. 13. Prediction 10: By the end of 2018, a major new VR-centric game genre will appear.
  14. 14. Fears
  15. 15. Prediction 11: By the end of 2017, the media will blame at least one mass shooting on a VR game.
  16. 16. Prediction 12: By end of 2017, news stories about “VR Addiction” will be frequent.
  17. 17. Prediction 13: By the end of 2018, there will be at least three movies playing on fears of VR.
  18. 18. Filmmaking
  19. 19. Prediction 14: By 2025, VR home movies will be our most treasured possessions.
  20. 20. Prediction 15: Documentaries will be the first VR films to win major awards.
  21. 21. Prediction 16: By 2020, VR porn will be a $1B industry worldwide.
  22. 22. Prediction 17: By 2020, there will be at least ten Virtual Reality Reality Shows.
  23. 23. Prediction 18: The Divine Comedy will provide a model for successful VR storytelling.
  24. 24. Prediction 19: By end of 2018, will have a VR channel.
  25. 25. Prediction 20: For feature films to work in VR, they will need to be social. We’ll figure this out by 2025.
  26. 26. Social
  27. 27. Prediction 21: By 2025, the majority of VR revenue will be from social experiences.
  28. 28. Prediction 22: By 2018, one of the top ten VR games will be a dance game.
  29. 29. Prediction 23: By 2025, VR/AR Boardgames will be a $100M business.
  30. 30. Prediction 24: By end of 2020, at least one VR MMO will have > 1M subscribers.
  31. 31. Prediction 25: By the end of 2018, there will be a leading VR social platform, and it won’t be the old guard.
  32. 32. Prediction 26: By 2018, VR Emotes will be very popular, and have a stupid name.
  33. 33. Location Based Entertainment
  34. 34. Prediction 27: In 2017, every US State Fair will have a VR Attraction.
  35. 35. Give them something they can’t get at home. Rule #1:
  36. 36. Prediction 28: By 2020 there will be at least 20 VR coasters worldwide.
  37. 37. Prediction 28: By 2020 2016 there will be at least 20 VR coasters worldwide.
  38. 38. Prediction 29: By 2025 Bowling with AR Glasses will be a thing.
  39. 39. Augmented Reality
  40. 40. Prediction 30: by 2025, the AR market will be dominated by “video AR” systems similar to the Vrvana Totem and Google Tango.
  41. 41. Prediction 31: AR experiences synced with TV will be a thing.
  42. 42. Prediction 32: Augmented reality lectures will be popular by 2025.
  43. 43. Prediction 33: By 2025, chasing phantoms in your house will be mainly for children.
  44. 44. Technology
  45. 45. Prediction 34: By 2018, gamers will wear narrow glasses or get contacts.
  46. 46. Prediction 35: By 2020, really hardcore gamers will have prescription lenses.
  47. 47. Prediction 36: By 2018, Eye tracking VR headsets will be available.
  48. 48. Prediction 37: By 2020, Foveated Rendering will exist. By 2025, it will be useful.
  49. 49. Prediction 38: By 2025, There will be no more corded VR systems.
  50. 50. Touch
  51. 51. Prediction 39: By 2020, trackable props for VR and AR will be common.
  52. 52. Prediction 40: In 2025, Robots will touch you in VR and you’ll like it.
  53. 53. Thanks! Slides: jesseschell.com Twitter: @jesseschell Email: jesse@schellgames.com

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