ConWx Metocean Services




12 slides
      1     DONG Energy april 2009
Outline


    How to optimize the performance of your Offshore Wind Park from
    birth to adult life with respect to the ...
How are we?
 A forecasting centre with 6 global core business areas




 Numerical    Wind Power     Metocean       Metoce...
Sectors and services


                              ConWx- a forecasting centre
     Service Areas                       ...
Weather and wave climate
High wind resources offshore
                                               Offshore question?
  ...
Generic challenges

     Risk management and resource planning in connection with work
     concerns the following phases:...
How are Forecasts and hindcast made?




                                            The wave and weather
                ...
How good are the Hindcasts




Blue line ConWx significant wave height hindcast data for Duerloo (North Sea)
and red line ...
Full Metocean Observations- ADCP/Bouy


- Metmast
- Wave and current
  messurements
- LIDAR
- Well proven system
- High pe...
Weather risk management


      Weather affects:
      •Production
      • Construction
      • O&M
      • Planning



 R...
Lesson learnt



     9 years experience from all offshore parks in Europe

     Main focus on day-ahead forecasts


     ...
Thank you!




12   DONG Energy april 2009
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ConWx ApS Offshore Services

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ConWx ApS Offshore Services

  1. 1. ConWx Metocean Services 12 slides 1 DONG Energy april 2009
  2. 2. Outline How to optimize the performance of your Offshore Wind Park from birth to adult life with respect to the impact of climate? About ConWx Metocean forecast and hindcast Metocean observations Lesson learnt Next step? Our offshore references It’s all about Weather Risk Management…… 2
  3. 3. How are we? A forecasting centre with 6 global core business areas Numerical Wind Power Metocean Metocean Energy Trading Energy and Weather and Forecasts Forecasts and Observation Forecasts Water Wave Models analysis System Consultancy From Weather Predictions to Business Value 3
  4. 4. Sectors and services ConWx- a forecasting centre Service Areas Renewable lifecycle engagement Wind Parks (experience from ALL offshore parks) ConWx offers a full range of global -Site Assessments services covering the entire lifecycle of renewable investment projects, combining -Metocean Forecasts in-depth wind industry expertise and best -WTG Power Forecasts for +2400 units practices in management consulting, Numerical Weather and Wave Predictions forecasting and site services Energy trading services and forecasts State-of-the-art numerical weather predictions, wind turbine generation predictions, and metocean forecasting Metocean Observation and Forecasting System Forecasting and climatic consultancy The only company with operational experience in power prediction and Water & Environment metocean forecasts for offshore parks Your power is to know 4
  5. 5. Weather and wave climate High wind resources offshore Offshore question? – but also – What will the power production be? Higher construction costs How accurate will the power predictions be? Higher transport costs How many non-working hours are there in Lower accessibility October? Lower availability Higher risks to health and safety How high is the lightning risk? Higher project planning risks Higher project costs Higher O&M costs Site: Baltic area Limits: 10 m/s, 1.5 m Hs • May-September is best • Very variable, esp. in Winter • High exposed to lightning June-September 5
  6. 6. Generic challenges Risk management and resource planning in connection with work concerns the following phases: -Site statistics -Installation -O&M ....and the following areas: - Materials (Blades, machinery etc.) - People security (injuries in high wind/waves) - Transport / chartering (value loss in “bad weather”) - Time (transport + manpower) 6
  7. 7. How are Forecasts and hindcast made? The wave and weather models: -Local wave and weather models 8 days in advance Fast servers runs the NWP’s -4 times a day -180 hr in advance -Resolution down to 2km 7 State of the art in numerical weather and wave prediction
  8. 8. How good are the Hindcasts Blue line ConWx significant wave height hindcast data for Duerloo (North Sea) and red line observed significant wave height. 8
  9. 9. Full Metocean Observations- ADCP/Bouy - Metmast - Wave and current messurements - LIDAR - Well proven system - High performance - Data logger - Data presentation - Data backup ADCP messurements 9
  10. 10. Weather risk management Weather affects: •Production • Construction • O&M • Planning Risk management and resource planning in construction and O&M for the following areas: - Materials (Blades, machinery etc.) - People security (injuries in high wind/lightning etc) - Transport / chartering (value loss in “bad weather”) - Time (transport + manpower) 10
  11. 11. Lesson learnt 9 years experience from all offshore parks in Europe Main focus on day-ahead forecasts Intense manual calibration and analysis ConWx offers: Intense lightning supervision - Metocean predictions +10 dy Local effects very important - Metocean consultancy - Hindcasts Value of online observations - Proactive warnings Daily communication important - Route Forecasts Intra park forecasts important - Wind Power Forecasts Near shore= lower predictability - Metocean observations High quality weather and wave models 11
  12. 12. Thank you! 12 DONG Energy april 2009

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