Informe Europeo de Wireless

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Wireless industry drivers and bottlenecks

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Informe Europeo de Wireless

  1. 1. TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers Synthesis Report EUR 22250 EN Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
  2. 2. The mission of the IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process by researching science- based responses to policy challenges that have both a socio-economic as well as a scientific/technological dimension.
  3. 3. Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers Synthesis Report Editors: E. Bohlin, S. Lindmark, C. Rodríguez and J-C. Burgelman. DG JRC-IPTS Authors: P. Ballon, C. Blackman, E. Bohlin, S. de Munck, S. Forge, J. Heres, A. Kips, S. Lindmark, R. Tee, W.-P. van der Laan, M. van Staden and U. Wehn de Montalvo. TNO April 2006 EUR 22250 EN
  4. 4. European Commission Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies http://www.jrc.es Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities ISBN 92-79-02035-8 Catalogue Nr.: LF-NA-22250-EN-C © European Communities, 2006 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Spain
  5. 5. Preface Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers New wireless technologies like WiFi, WiMax, UWB as well as mesh and ad hoc networking are spreading increasingly fast in Europe. Wireless technologies are now at a critical juncture because different combinations of these could disrupt the existing mobile landscape, dominated at the moment by the GSM and UMTS standards. The future of the wireless communication system and the implications for Europe has been of growing interest to the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS).1 Since 2003, several studies on the future of the wireless communication system have been published. IPTS launched the present study for three reasons: to map the new wireless developments in Europe; to analyze drivers of the same and provide policy and regulatory recommendations. To that end, the term Alternative Wireless Technologies (AWTs) has been employed to collect the various new technologies under one umbrella. This term is being increasingly used in the trade press as well. However, a major conclusion of the report is that the new wireless landscape will involve several types of technologies, interconnecting with one another, and not necessarily excluding the traditional cellular technologies, but rather complementing and reinforcing them. To that end, the report has developed technology maps to illustrate the scope and overlaps between the various technologies. As the new wireless landscape emerges, the trend towards Ambient Intelligence (AmI) begins to receive general recognition. Wireless technologies will support the future AmI networks, and this report suggests that the new wireless landscape offers the potential for seamless connectivity over various types of data ranges and distance coverage ratios. Therefore, it seems appropriate to suggest here that this report not only identifies AWT in the above sense, but there will be a shift towards a new form of AWTs - Ambient Wireless Technologies. The emerging landscape of Ambient Wireless Technologies is likely to become an issue of increasing industrial and policy attention, providing momentum for future studies on AWTs in this new sense. Jean-Claude Burgelman Head of the ICT Unit, IPTS 1 IPTS, based in Seville, Spain, is one of seven research institutes that make up the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre
  6. 6. Acknowledgements Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers A number of key individuals and organisations ensured the completion of this volume, and their assistance has been essential. Critical support and active advice have been provided by IPTS during the project and project meetings by: Anna-Flavia Bianchi • Marc Bogdanowicz • Layos Nyiri • Yves Punie • David Osimo • Martin Ulbrich • Dieter Zinnbauer • The following partner organisations contributed to the report as follows: IMIT: Erik Bohlin (Project Manager) and Sven Lindmark (Synthesis Report, Editors of Annex 1-3) • SCF Associates: Simon Forge and Colin Blackman (Annex 2-3) • TNO: Pieter Ballon, Uta Wehn de Montalvo, Annemieke Kips, Mildo van Staden, Jeroen Heres, • Richard Tee, Silvain de Munck and Willem-Pieter van der Laan (Annex 1-2) The whole team is grateful to the colleagues of DG INFSO who provided extremely valuable help with validating the research results. Note: This is the Synthesis Report of all the findings of MEWTAD project. The complete MEWTAD Final Report consists of this Synthesis Report plus Annex 1-3, one for each work package (Annex 1-3, corresponding to WP1-3). Annex 1-3 will only be available on the DG JRC-IPTS website (www.jrc.es) and not published as printed paper copy. The findings presented herein are solely the personal opinions of the authors, and should not be construed to represent the opinions of the European Commission.
  7. 7. Executive summary Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers Background could support these emerging technologies, with particular emphasis on safety and security and The European ICT sector has enjoyed mobile virtual communities (MVCs); (3) examine outstanding success in the second generation the effect that the regulatory environment (2G) of mobile telecommunications. Whilst the will have on the evolution of these alternative European industry has developed 3G systems wireless technologies, identify policy options and largely as a generational successor to 2G, a implications for European Union (EU) member plethora of competing (and complementing) states (MS) and provide policy recommendations. wireless technologies and solutions, often stemming from the computer industry, have entered the scene. For short, these are denoted AWT Overview alternative wireless technologies (AWTs). Such For the purposes of this study, AWTs AWTs create new growth opportunities but may cover all emerging wireless technologies with also constitute a disruptive threat to existing the exception of traditional cellular mobile networks and their supporting communities. technologies (2G, 3G). AWTs enable, in sum, Hence, there is a strong and urgent need to the provisioning of existing and new services to research the usage of AWTs, as well as the trends mobile users and allow communications between and drivers currently catalysing their diffusion. computers, PDAs, phones, consumer electronics devices and appliances – in office, home, and/ Objectives or public environments. AWTs may operate in licensed or unlicensed frequency bands, and can The objectives of this study are to (1) map be applied in a number of different topologies wireless technologies in Europe and the current such as mesh networks and ad-hoc networks. The trends in development; (2) analyse the drivers that figure below identifies and maps out a number of Wireless Technology Overview
  8. 8. wireless technologies; the basic dimensions are • short-range protocols (such as WLAN /Wi-Fi, Executive Summary commonly agreed upon to determine of the types UWB, NFC, ZigBee and Bluetooth) of services and business models that they are able • longer-range protocols (WiMax, Flash to support – speed and mobility. OFDM, 3G enhancements such as UMTS- Here we note that the current crop of TDD) AWTs is not the final set. The mobile and • mesh and ad-hoc networking wireless arena is an extremely dynamic scene in which technologies are adapted, extended and converging towards ever-increasing bandwidths Mapping Availability and Usage in the EU and mobility. The AWTs covered in this report The report presents an analysis of the are either: (1) existing in the market today, and/ availability and usage of a number of selected or (2) on their way towards standardisation or AWTs – UWB, WiMax (802.16x), Flash-OFDM in advanced RD stages, and/or (3) potentially (802.20x), Wi-Fi (802.11x), Meshed and Ad- presenting a challenge to traditional business hoc Networks and UMTS TDD – in the EU. The models in the mobile market. Specifically, we technologies were selected on the basis of their consider the following types and technologies:2 potential for the provision of alternative non- Overview of Selected AWT Activity in EU25 Country UWB WLAN (pre) WiMax Flash OFDM Mesh/Ad-hoc UMTS TDD Austria commercial deployment use Belgium commercial commercial use Cyprus commercial trial Czech Rep. commercial trial use Denmark commercial commercial use Estonia commercial trial Finland commercial trial use France commercial commercial commercial trial Germany commercial commercial commercial commercial Greece commercial use Hungary commercial deployment Ireland commercial commercial deployment deployment Italy commercial commercial Latvia commercial commercial commercial Lithuania commercial trial deployment Luxembourg commercial Malta commercial Netherlands commercial commercial trial use Poland commercial commercial Portugal commercial commercial Slovakia commercial Slovenia commercial commercial Spain commercial commercial use Sweden commercial trial use deployment UK commercial commercial commercial commercial 2 For the purposes of this report, satellite- and airship-based communications as well as broadcasting technologies (e.g. DVB) are excluded.
  9. 9. (traditional) operator-centric access. The table We also investigate the type of operators and Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers below brings together the observations in an their strategies regarding AWT initiatives. Clearly, overview at country level of where these AWT traditional operators have taken the lead in the activities are taking place, along with an overview deployment and exploitation of AWTs throughout of the phase of development. most of Europe. This suggests that there are at present constraints in Europe for AWTs being Clearly the most dynamic markets, in terms used in a non- (traditional) operator-centric of the variety of AWTs being used or deployed, manner, even though in some countries there are situated in Western Europe and Scandinavia. is some moderate or even strong non-operator- France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, centric activity. Sweden and the UK present the most diverse European markets in terms of AWTs, with almost all AWTs under review being deployed or used in Drivers and bottlenecks these countries. In general, the following drivers and The overview table also demonstrates that bottlenecks for AWTs are mentioned most while UWB and Flash OFDM are marginal or frequently and highlighted as most important by non-existent on the EU market, (pre)WiMax, EU experts today. Mesh/Ad-hoc technologies and UMTS-TDD are available or being deployed in numerous, or even most, of the EU member states. WLAN, Mobile Virtual Communities, Security in the form of Wi-Fi, is by far the most mature and Safety and AWTs technology considered in this report. It has been The report explores the (potential) relationship on the market for several years and is used by a between mobile virtual communities (MVCs) and wide range of user groups. AWTs. It was found that current and emerging General AWT Drivers and Bottlenecks Drivers Bottlenecks Poor fixed broadband infrastructure development Lack of interconnection and roaming agreements, especially - - in many small cities, towns, rural and remote areas between new AWT operators. across Europe. Pricing models of public hotspot access in many EU - Government incentives, programmes and public- countries still oriented towards occasional use, limiting - private partnerships to stimulate broadband scope of AWTs to business market. connectivity. Licensing regimes in many EU countries imposing - Competition in Wi-Fi markets, e.g. because of limitations on spectrum availability, deployment, handoff - relatively low prices of Wi-Fi deployment, driving and integration of AWT cells, and generally allowing technical prices down and ensuring relatively high coverage experiments with AWTs but no market experiments. in a number of countries. Persistent standardisation problems. - Success of private in-house WLANs, which might - Lack of user-friendliness in access, authentication and - stimulate the usage of public WLANs. billing procedures. Emerging integration of AWT and mobile capabilities - Lack of structural advantages (in terms of speed or cost) - in dual mode handsets. over fixed broadband, and therefore a lack of incentives Falling hardware prices and backhaul costs. for AWTs in areas with well-developed fixed broadband - infrastructure. Limited number of licensed operators in some - markets, creating incentives for new stakeholders Potential saturation and congestion of unlicensed spectrum - to enter national markets using AWTs. in prime locations. New applications and possibilities such as VoIP Limited amount of terminals and other certified equipment - - over wireless, deployment of AWTs on trains etc. in the market. Expected expansion of WiMax with mobility Lack of customer education, i.e. in terms of differences - - characteristics. between mobile and various AWTs. Lack of content applications. -
  10. 10. instances of MVCs are primarily related to mobile care, AWTs can be used in several applications, Executive Summary cellular technologies (with voice and messaging including (1) telemedicine where the ubiquity of being strongly community-related). Voice over AWTs enables expertise and scientific monitoring Wireless IP has persistently been referred to as the of care in the hospital to be transferred to care so-called killer application for AWTs. However, in the home for aged and infirm people; (2) there are still a number of barriers limiting the numerous uses in hospital networks; (3) personal market prospects (and thus community impact) and wearable health networks (Healthwear) in the short to medium term. Currently, the main attached to the body of the patient will extend development (at a modest level) is instead the care into the home from hospital, an area where proliferation of wireless communities for the little success has been found so far with effective joint deployment and operation of Wi-Fi hotspots telemedicine. These may be used for early and clouds. Geographical and participatory detection of failing mental as well as physical limitations of current AWTs are the main factors conditions, by going into social interaction as hindering the development of AWT-based MVC much as monitoring body parameters directly. today. Finally, AWTs may be used in (4) ambulance control and on-site support, where for instance AWT networks are finding major and images can be transferred from first responders to increasing usage in security, health care and a moving ambulance to prepare its medicos for safety of everyday life. For security purposes, the injuries and the general scene. AWTs lend themselves to providing police fire This report also pursues an analysis of security and ambulance services, as well as security threats created by AWTs including threats to the services with extremely robust C4 (command / control / communication / co-ordination) systems, person, personal details and data for emergency not least for alerts and disaster situations. and community services and services such as m-commerce, including content distribution. A Safety of life and property using AWT summary of security challenges is shown in the capability covers many areas, but two appear figure below. particularly significant: (1) the use of wireless sensor networks for detecting unsafe situations, Impacts could possibly be even greater than be they in a specific environment, a city, a the current nuisances of Internet threats, e.g. chemical plant, or tracking potentially hazardous emergency services could be brought down. New moving items such as containers; and (2) mobile services also bring a range of responsibilities and applications for vehicle and traffic management vulnerabilities never seen before – the multimedia hazards – termed telematics. AWT networks could handset equals the PC in intelligence and form the basis of a ‘second network’ to provide programmability with Java-based applications, the the citizen with a dedicated alert channel, due network becomes an IP packet-based transport to their ubiquity, robustness and low cost relative mechanism, with intelligent gateways and to other radio technologies such as mobile service agents at its edges, while the IT content cellular (as shown by a case study – WARN). server side expands in complexity and size. One In addition, mesh forms of AWTs have inherent key difference in security architectures for AWT resistance to attack due to their non-centralised networks, compared to previous radio networks locus of control, and thus are attractive for this of cellular form, is that they may be non-operator- application. centric, yielding major authentication issues. Here we also would highlight a high-risk threat Despite the widespread use of AWTs in to AWT market take-off. If such menaces get out 10 emergency and security applications, perhaps of control, the whole wireless market could be it is in the development of ubiquitous networks undermined in the subsequent fall-out. Citizen for health care, including mental health, that and consumer trust would be destroyed. the greatest advances are to be seen. In health
  11. 11. Security Challenges of Wideband Multimedia Elements Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers Source: SCF Associates In sum, protection of AWT systems end-to- such as Bluetooth and RFID and, not least, with end is a major challenge. To be effective across the development of the ‘Portable Internet’ using the multimedia wireless environment, security a home-grown AWT, WiBro. In addition, there needs to be addressed as a key component of the is a strong policy drive towards an increasingly overall infrastructure, with a security platform to converged broadband network environment protect all components (servers, networks and termed the BCN. handsets) designed in from the start – and not The drivers behind this Korean success bolted on at the end. cannot be understood without taking the historical context in socio-economic terms into consideration, as well as the social environment AWTs in Korea – a Case Study it has created, the social drive to move forward This report summarises for policy-makers including the Korean view of technology in certain key lessons that we may draw from the society. With these background factors in mind, Korea experience, a country which has made government intervention and orchestration of the major strides in ICT over the past three decades. private sector is perhaps the key factor. Over two Globally Korea is probably the most advanced decades, the Korean government has orchestrated AWT market, as indicated by more than 35% support for ICTs with a series of interconnected of the world’s total Wi-Fi hotspots; industrial programmes, each with defined economic AWT networks such as ZigBee for RFID and 11 aims. The latest of these programmes – IT 839 – industrial sensors being piloted; most terminal includes AWTs to a high degree. Also, the Korean and handset devices designed and manufactured regulatory regime has created a fairly level in Korea having short-range AWTs embedded playing field in telecommunications competition,
  12. 12. with restrictions on ownership for different types long term means that a comprehensive European Executive Summary of networks, allowing and even forcing the approach to AWTs is justified. The significance of sharing of infrastructures according to dynamic AWTs is likely to be downplayed if left to current financial models. In addition, it has cleverly used market forces and those players dominated by its revenues from spectrum licences and taxes interests in conventional fixed wire or 2G and 3G on operators as a strategic re-investment fund for cellular mobile technologies. Moreover, unless telecommunications infrastructure and research. Europe grasps the mettle on AWTs and acts A point also notable for policy setters, with a positively and quickly, it will be left behind by clear-cut policy of picking-the-winners, is that both North America and Asia. Korea often takes a contrarian view on standards This policy analysis examines AWTs by in order to be first in new technology. Education means of a summary SWOT analysis, from the for adults on a mass scale in the late 1990s viewpoint of the EU citizen, summarised in the further strengthened Korea’s growth. Finally, on table below. the demand side, trust in the use of technology From each strength, weakness, opportunity and the expected absence of misuses means and threat we assess the implications for policy that confidence and acceptance of widespread and regulation (see Annex 3). In this report we usage and even intrusion into everyday life are far instead state policy implications and measures higher than in other cultures. thematically. First, we conclude that there is a need for setting a blueprint for AWT development Policy analysis and implications and usages, for the next 10 years, which covers a broadband wireless infrastructure and its This study has gathered evidence indicating applications, and includes converging and that AWTs are likely to become a major competing technologies. To conclude, a European technological development with important policy for AWT take-up should revolve around economic implications for Europe, especially the following activity areas: once the non-operator-centric model is unleashed 1. Spectrum allocation – be it in licensed or (new) and competitive. There is a strong argument in favour of Europe adopting an integrated approach unlicensed bands. There is a need to rethink to the policy and regulatory issues arising from policy for spectrum allocation at the highest AWTs (e.g. spectrum policy and regulation; levels for Europe, Member States, and globally competition policy and regulation; licensing to incorporate AWTs adequately. AWTs may schemes, access and interoperability, network need to have frequency bands currently rollout, security policy and regulation, privacy and taken by broadcast, mobile cellular, or the data protection, standardisation, IPR including military. By WRC-07, it would be judicious digital copyrights, RD, funding, education to have reconsidered the current allocation and promotion). However, these are sensitive of spectrum in view of the economic benefits issues and care needs to be taken in striking the of AWTs for Europe, and abandoning existing right balance between command-style dirigiste frequency plans. Consideration of spectrum intervention, which would not fit with how the policy for AWTs must take into account two European Union and the Member States interact, key factors: (1) spectrum availability must and a repetition of the experience with previous be matched against technology type, where European programmes which have been long on we must balance the social and commercial time to organise and get results from. In spite of importance of existing services; and (2) the 12 the difficulties, the key policy conclusion from form of spectrum allocation needs to be this study is that AWTs’ real significance in the decided.
  13. 13. SWOT Analysis of AWTs from the Perspective of the EU Citizen Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES AWTs fill the gaps left by cellular No real place today in European telecommunications and media, nor part of an overall plan for communications Lower costs than cellular in many applications Not understood by mass markets Fast to rollout compared with cellular AWT capabilities and positioning are still not well understood Bandwidth higher than 3G by EU industry and technical centres of expertise. More effort Can cut costs and delays by eliminating large capacity on basic radio research is needed. backhaul lines in MAN installations More clarity is required on spectrum needed Cost and installation advantages add up to a way to provide European mobile incumbents are well entrenched; in contrast municipalities with a chance to enhance their value with AWTs are in a weak market position, with no champions, mobile Internet access promotion or financial muscle Can act in mobile roaming mode (e.g. mobile WiMax) Security problems abound European industry – in a good position in design coming from European industry has been a follower so far cellular on chips, antennae, military electronics including radar, specialist chip manufacture, despite US lead today, as All successful AWT standards so far are US (IEEE series) Europe does have mesh software providers Europe’s forced collaborative approach on decisions and new Europe’s collaborative approach experience and ability programmes makes all policy initiatives slow OPPORTUNITIES THREATS Designing and producing AWT technology and equipment Security threats due to pervasive coverage, increased band- with the aim of developing leadership in broadband wireless width, new bodily proximity connectivity (BANs). Innocent (e.g. multi-mode self-adaptive terminals according to and unaware user population: Threats include: (1) attacks on performance/cost preferences) emergency services; (2) attacks on the core ICT infrastruc- Export opportunities of bringing Internet connectivity to the ture; (3) identity theft from citizens; (4) privacy threats to developing world (cf. Korea’s WiBro) citizens; (5) malware attacks of all kinds on citizens, attached machines and organisations, plus the new types of attack that Expanding scope of European industry – new ventures in will come with VoIP; (6) car telematics – accidents caused consumer and verticals, especially health including frail and by malicious messages; (7) body area networks; (8) M-com- mental health conditions merce threats; (9) M-Banking threats, including EFT; and (10) AWTs ideal for SME involvement and start-ups – could seed a security threats to industrial sensor networks. whole new EU sector of SME chains Cellular mobile industry views AWTs as a major threat. Offer Internet access to all of Europe at low cost (and VoIP) via public and municipal access networks Cellular operators, challenged by AWTs, competing with a dif- ferent business model which may outstrip the mobile busi- High broadband penetration via wireless will stimulate feeder ness model in value to the customer. industries (e.g. media) user industries (e.g. medicine) Wireless health issues are not yet understood for cellular and Economic impacts of better health/elderly care at lower cost non-cellular access techniques. AWTs are often likely to be Set standards lacking in mesh networking software and worn continually and the effects of low-power continuous ra- processes, possibly via Open Source software routes diation needs to be examined. 3. Harmonising Licensing Schemes. If a 2. Competition policy and regulation. To create regulated AWT market does arise, major an active AWT-based communications decisions will revolve around the forms market, it will be critical to form conditions of licence, in terms of whether it is for of freedom of market entry for new players spectrum usage or a general licence to without restrictive practices, be it in operate with both service provision and AWT interworking – physical attachment, protocols infrastructure ownership, or a service over a at network or at application level – or in third party’s approved AWT infrastructure. related areas such as media content or in Major concerns here are the allocation dependencies such as the software for ‘media process for licences and types of licensing. players’ and operating systems’. In principle, In summary, policy directions should revolve Europe may need to reconsider competition around a lighter regulatory regime for the new policy with regard to telecommunications 1 entrants, perhaps unlicensed, but with forced specifically to encourage the entry of new interconnect to incumbents (see below). services from new providers over AWTs.
  14. 14. EC recommendations to the regulators Internet security backed by legislation and Executive Summary in the MS would be to view the business policy measures is needed for what should case differences as an opportunity to bring be allowed/prevented. AWTs need to have competition to what may be an oligopolistic a security layer built into their network market – while using AWT licensing, architecture, as their ubiquity becomes the if deemed necessary, firstly to promote users’ vulnerability. competition by ensuring that new entrants 7. Privacy needs to be ensured through data have licences, and secondly to ensure that protection legislation and current policy security measures are implemented. on the rights of the citizen. A balance 4. Access and Interoperability. A related area between privacy concerns and convenience, for policy decision is on the assurance of security and utility of AWTs must obviously interconnection access by the new entrants be reached – to protect efficiently against to existing networks. Issues of roaming, eavesdropping on conversations, identity interconnection and termination charges and any personal data theft, and personal must be considered, with cost-based tracking. Privacy protection regulations pricing to prevent monopolistic margins for AWT public services will follow those on interconnect activity. AWTs could then envisaged for cellular mobile for aggregation provide strong local loop competition. of personal data. For privately deployed Assuring connection of any-to-any covers networks, confidentiality can only be assured several areas including: (1) open access; if the equipment has security measures built (2) mandated mobile exchanges; (3) pricing in as standard. models extending into interconnection and 8. Standards setting, with participation of the billing settlements, with termination ETSI, building on the IEEE 802 standards and roaming agreements; (4) naming and series at a basic communications protocol addressing – ENUM (e-number) scheme level, and moving up e.g. the seven-layer for mapping a PSTN telephone number model to build complete systems that can be into a typical Internet Uniform Resource easily integrated into a broadband wireless Locator (URL); (5) universal service; and (6) network for intelligent adaptive network emergency number obligations. operation, using mesh network architectures 5. Network Rollout. In AWT networks, with cognitive radio front-ends for self- once network interconnection is assured, organising communications structures. The network roll-out is not contaminated with security issue is far too important to be left difficult issues. However, they pose a strong to the suppliers or to ad-hoc development; competitive threat to incumbent technology its co-ordination is an ideal task for an EC stakeholders who may complain to the programme. regulators that AWT operation undermines 9. Patent and Copyright Policy. IPR from their USO requirements, or that AWT RD in the supported initiatives for operators should be regulated by heavier AWT networking, including security and taxes due to the unfair competition, or application environments (such as operating even banned as they may be operated systems and microbrowsers), should all be by municipalities and others who are not under open source licence and no software licensed and regulated telcos. patents permitted, unless they are in the 1 6. Security. Protecting citizens and businesses public domain. In certain contexts of peer- by ensuring that security measures are to-peer content creation, this Open Source adequate for the challenge of maintaining approach to copyright would extend to users’ confidence. A complete reform of content and media copyright protection so
  15. 15. that DRM should be available in multiple and development centre for AWT radio Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers forms. For the future, the reciprocal of DRM technologies and networking architectures. (digital rights management for commercial Jointly funded by industry, national media content) might have to be applied in governments and the EC, the first phase the far wider field of personal data available of rapid set-up and early growth could through AWTs – the notion of ‘digital privacy be through a joint programme of projects management’. distributed across existing universities. This would form a launch pad for the second 10. RD Programmes. RD encouragement is phase, of setting up a permanent institute needed through appropriate programmes. with its own faculty and facilities at one The current RD programmes do not site. ERRI would have twin research roles, consider the opportunities and challenges of primary and applied research, to form an of AWTs, and especially their applications, international centre of excellence. for specialist areas of emergency services, 11. Funding, Encouragement, Education and health and care of the aged. They are largely Promotion. ignorant of these areas’ importance, perhaps even of their existence. Programmes that • In view of the opportunity, a specifically examine and extend existing funded programme for research AWTs, as well as research for new ones, with and demonstrator implementations support for standards are needed in three should be set up. Here, taking the major areas: revenues from spectrum licences and • first, basic radio technology to further taxes on operators for a strategic re- the understanding of AWT signal investment fund for telecommunications propagation, signal processing, and infrastructure and research should be identification, especially for spectrum considered. In addition, SMEs and new sharing; ventures should be encouraged and supported with capital, programmes • second, exploration and resolution of of research, supply contracts for all security issues, with reformulation of demonstrator projects etc. A programme the Internet structure where needed for for setting up and incubating AWT start- secure ubiquitous environments for the ups should also be a major priority. citizen; • Awareness programmes will also be • third, applications programmes in the necessary in Europe, to explain the vertical segments of health care, telecare technology and its position against for the elderly, logistics and retail and other communications and media emergency services. technologies, to show what it can do. We suggest a two-step approach to It would also be useful to consider strengthening European research in these education programmes. areas. First, a European Alternative Radio • Test beds. It would be most useful to Network Research Programme should build a range of European test beds at be established as a matter of urgency, a national (or EU) level, the aims being within a timeframe of months. Then, to stimulate the economy by proving we suggest the formation of a European technology and, most importantly, to 1 Radiocommunications Research Institute educate both the work force and society – ERRI – as a further initiative to pursue in general. The large demonstrator the full promise of the new directions in projects would revolve around four main radio. ERRI would be a European research
  16. 16. initiatives: (1) a pan-European wireless projects, which are most likely to made Executive Summary broadband network infrastructure up of many small projects – for instance, (EWBNI); (2) a European citizen-alert use of BANs in mental health for a network (CAN), perhaps using a mesh specific disabling condition – rather infrastructure; (3) a European Emergency than large horizontal networks. Health Services Infrastructure Network (EESIN) and elderly care would also try to show only accessible by emergency services, improvements in quality of care against with an architecture for robust operation lowering the costs of their service. Each in all situations; and (4) European demonstrator would be underpinned by recovery network for attacks and both temporary research projects and disasters (ERNAD), a temporary network long-term research in the ERRI institute to be set up instantly whenever and and in its predecessor distributed wherever infrastructure fails. Across research programme across several these horizontal networks may run research departments in leading some specialised vertical demonstrator universities. 1
  17. 17. Table of contents Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers Preface 3 Acknowledgements 5 Executive summary 7 Chapter 1. Introduction 21 1.1 Background 21 1.2 Objectives 21 1.3 Methodology 21 1.4 Work Packages and Annexes 21 1.4.1 WP 1 – Mapping the Existing European Wireless Landscape and Current Trends 21 1.4.2 WP 2 – Drivers 22 1.4.3 WP 3 – Implications of AWTs for Europe and Policy Recommendations 22 1.4.4 WP 4 – Synthesis Exercise 23 1.5 Structure of this Report 23 Chapter 2. AWT – Introduction and Overview 25 2.1 AWTs Defined 25 2.2 Overview of Technologies and Supporting Communities 25 2.3 AWT Descriptions 26 2.3.1 UWB (Ultra-Wideband) 26 2.3.2 WiMax (802.16x) 27 2.3.3 Wi-Fi (802.11x) 28 2.3.4 Flash OFDM (802.20) 28 2.3.5 Meshed and Ad-hoc Networks 29 2.3.6 Bluetooth (IEEE 802.15.1) 30 2.3.7 NFC (Near Field Communication) 30 2.3.8 ZigBee (IEEE 802.15.4) 30 2.3.9 RFID 31 2.3.10 Expected enhancements of UMTS 31 1
  18. 18. Table of contents Chapter 3. AWT Availability and Usage in the EU 35 3.1 Summarising AWT Activities in Europe 35 3.2 Wi-Fi /WLAN 36 3.2.1 Key Observations 36 3.2.2 Mapping WLAN Availability in Europe 37 3.3 Other AWTs 39 3.3.1 UWB 40 3.3.2 (Pre-)WiMax 40 3.3.3 Mesh / Ad-hoc Networks 41 3.3.4 Flash OFDM 42 3.3.5 UMTS-TDD 43 3.4 (Non-) Operator Centricity of AWTs in Europe 44 3.5 Conclusions and Future Directions for AWTs in Europe 45 Chapter 4. Drivers – MVCs, Security and Safety 47 4.1 General Drivers and Bottlenecks 47 4.2 Mobile Virtual Communities 47 4.3 AWTs Enabling Safety and Security Applications 48 4.4 AWTs as a Security Threat 50 Chapter 5. AWTS in Korea – A Case Study 55 5.1 Korean ICT and AWT Market 55 5.2 Drivers for AWT Take-up 56 5.3 Main Future Research Areas and the Asian Context 59 Chapter 6. Policy Analysis and Recommendations 61 6.1 The New Radio Evolution 61 6.1.1 The Map for EU Policy on AWTs 61 6.1.2 Current Policy and Regulation Concerning AWTs 62 6.1.3 AWTs in support of European Innovation and Competitiveness 63 6.1.4 The Challenges and Opportunities for Europe – SWOT 64 6.1.5 Towards European Industrial Policy for AWTs 64 6.2 Resultant Policy Recommendations 64 6.2.1 Spectrum Policy and Regulation 65 6.2.2 Competition Policy and Regulation 66 6.2.3 Harmonising Licensing Schemes 66 6.2.4 Access and Interoperability 67 6.2.5 Network Rollout 67 1 6.2.6 Security Policy and Regulation 67 6.2.7 Privacy and Data Protection 68 6.2.8 Standards 68
  19. 19. Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers 6.2.9 DRM, IPR, Content and Media Copyright Policy 69 6.2.10 RD Programmes 70 6.2.11 Funding, Encouragement, Education and Promotion 71 6.3 Issues for Further Research 73 References 75 List of Abbreviations 77 Annex 1: Mapping the Existing European Wireless Landscape and Current Trends (Available on the JRC-IPTS Website - www.jrc.es) Annex 2: Drivers (Available on the JRC-IPTS Website - www.jrc.es) Annex 3: Implications of Alternative Wireless Technologies for Europe and Policy Recommendations (Available on the JRC-IPTS Website - www.jrc.es) List of tables Table 3-1 Overview of Selected AWT Activity in EU25 35 Table 3-2 Aggregated Hotspot Data 38 Table 3-3 Number of EU25 Countries with Selected AWT Activity 39 Table 3-4 Operator Centricity of AWT Initiatives in Europe 44 Table 4-1 General AWT Drivers and Bottlenecks 47 Table 4-2 AWTs and Safety/Security Applications 49 Table 5-1 Key AWT and Suppliers Status in Korea 56 Table 6-1 SWOT Analysis of AWTs from the Perspective of the EU Citizen 65 List of figures Figure 2-1 Wireless Technology Overview 26 Figure 3-1 Growth Estimates of AWTs in EU25 Member States 45 Figure 4-1 Security Challenges of Wideband Multimedia Elements 52 Figure 5-1 Korean government ICT programmes 58 Figure 5-2 Korea’s Latest Medium Strategy Plan for IT – 839 60 Figure 6-1 Work Programme for Establishing European Success in AWTs 72 List of maps Map 3-1 Hotspots per 100,000 Inhabitants in EU25 plus 4 (june 2005) 38 Map 3-2 Geographical Spread of Hotspots over EU 25 plus 4 (March 2005) 39 Map 3-3 WiMax Activities in Europe, June 2005 41 1 Map 3-4 Mesh / Ad-hoc Network Activities in Europe, June 2005 42 Map 3-5 UMTS TDD Activities in Europe, June 2005 43
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  21. 21. 1. Introduction Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers 1.1 Background • To examine the effect that the regulatory environment will have on the evolution of The European telecommunications and these alternative wireless technologies, and electronics industry has enjoyed outstanding identify policy options success in the second generation (2G) of mobile • To understand the implications for European telecommunications. In a relatively short time Union (EU) member states and provide period, European actors have established leading policy recommendations positions in system, handset, and operator levels of the actor system. As in all lucrative industries, this lead will not be left unchallenged. In the 1.3 Methodology ongoing transition to third-generation (3G) mobile communications, and perhaps even more The study uses a combination of so in the coming fourth generation (4G), Asian comprehensive mappings of the AWT usage in and American actors are going ahead with new Europe, and in-depth case studies. The main initiatives. Whilst the European industry has sources include existing research reports, other developed 3G systems much as a generational publicly available information sources, and expert successor to 2G, a plethora of competing (and interviews. complementing) wireless technologies and solutions, often stemming from the computer 1.4 Work Packages and Annexes industry, have entered the scene. For short, these are denoted alternative wireless technologies To structure the wide-ranging questions, the (AWTs). In some areas, notably wireless LAN project has been organised into several work applications for offices, homes and “hot spots”, packages (WPs), each of which is focused on they have already reached substantial usage some aspect of the whole problem set. WP 1-3 and diffusion. Other alternative technologies are reported in separate annexes (Annexes 1-3), – including WiMax, UWB and meshed and ad- while WP 4 is reported here. Annex 1-3 are only hoc networks – show promising signs of fulfilling published on the JRC-IPTS website (www.jrc.es) existent and growing user needs. If AWTs succeed, there is a risk that the leading European position 1.4.1 WP 1 – Mapping the Existing European will be seriously challenged. Hence, there is a Wireless Landscape and Current Trends strong and urgent need to thoroughly research the usage of AWTs, as well as the trends and drivers The objective of WP 1 is to map present- currently catalysing their diffusion. day developments in Europe regarding AWT in order to assess the extent to which these wireless technologies are disruptive to the existing (fixed 1.2 Objectives and mobile) networks. Specifically, it focuses on: The objectives of this study are: which emerging AWTs are being implemented; which stakeholders are involved; which services • To map wireless technologies in Europe and they provide; and what the current trends and the current trends in development drivers are. 21 • To analyse the drivers that could support WP 1 is reported in Annex 1, as follows. these emerging technologies, with particular First, it provides an overview of the most emphasis on safety and security and mobile significant AWTs, their general characteristics, virtual communities (MVCs)
  22. 22. their technical performance characteristics of AWTs for security and health; examples of Introduction and constraints, and their expected impact in use of AWTs in each of the major application the market of wireless and mobile broadband. domains, citing case studies of how the For a selection of these, penetration and usage technology is providing advances; and last, it patterns throughout Europe are overviewed and briefly examines the various business models analysed. The findings from empirical research for the AWT networking industry. among country experts and desk research are An analysis of security threats associated with • summarised for each of the 25 EU countries AWT. It provides an overview of AWT usages and for each technology. A geographical and the threats they imply, and then offers an representation of the significant alternative in-depth threat analysis for those components wireless technologies in the EU is also provided. that have the highest vulnerabilities in the By way of conclusion, emerging trends and end-to-end chain of AWT infrastructure, with drivers as well as foreseeable developments in six examples of threats in everyday AWT the availability and usage of AWTs are analysed. usage. Finally, a case study is presented on an • 1.4.2 WP 2 – Drivers advanced application of AWT for safety and security purposes – WARN, the Wireless The objective of WP 2 (reported in Annex 2) Accelerated Responder Network – a pilot is to explore safety and security as well as mobile project mobile broadband network for virtual communities as drivers for demand for public safety and security for Washington emerging alternative wireless technologies. WP 2 D.C. using Flash OFDM technology supplied is divided into several themes: by Flarion. MVC as a driver of AWT • Moreover, Annex 2 offers an in-depth case Safety and security as a driver of AWT • study of AWT status in one leading market – Korea. It includes a general overview of the Korean ICT Korea AWT Status • market, application services and the major players, First, there is an analysis of how MVCs key technologies and their suppliers, the drivers for interact with and drive demand for AWTs. It is AWT take-up in Korea (historical context, social carried out along two lines: (1) opportunities of drivers, the important role of government support, AWTs for MVCs, and (2) opportunities of MVCs and the regulatory environment). Finally, the way as a social platform for accelerated diffusion of forward for Korea in terms of main research areas AWTs. and the Asian context, i.e. the cooperation with A second theme offers an analysis of safety China and Japan, is examined. and security as a driver for AWTs, as well as the security threats they pose. The theme is in turn 1.4.3 WP 3 – Implications of AWTs for Europe split into three parts: and Policy Recommendations An investigation of enabling AWTs for safety • Drawing on the output of WP 1 and WP 2, the and security applications. This includes: objective of WP 3 is to analyse the implications, a number of scenarios or “vignettes”; potential benefits and challenges of the different examination of capabilities and suitability technologies for the EU over the next 10 years, of AWTs in security, safety and health in terms of the regulatory and policy situation applications; examination of a potential 22 required for their evolution and competition, by structure for a citizens’ alert network and how providing thoroughly researched and actionable this would fit into a compound architecture policy recommendations.
  23. 23. 1.4.4 WP 4 – Synthesis Exercise WP 3 is reported in a separate annex (Annex Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers 3), as follows. First, it examines the significant This report corresponds to WP 4. i.e. the economic potential driven by AWTs and thus the synthesis exercise covering all issues analysed need for a suitable policy and its underpinning in the previous WPs, and including an executive in current EU policy directions, as well the summary, references and list of abbreviations. tools that could make up an appropriate policy. Second, it sets out to answer two questions: why an industrial policy is needed for AWTs, 1.5 Structure of this Report and how we obtain take-up and buy-in for an The major content items of the final report, industrial policy. Third, a SWOT (Strengths, corresponding to the chapter outline, are: Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis Chapter 2: Overview of AWTs • is conducted. From this, Annex 3 assesses the implications for policy and regulation, as well as Chapter 3: Overview of AWTs’ availability • the issues raised by policy/regulation, from the and usage in the EU point of view of the EU citizen. Then, resultant Chapter 4: Drivers: MVC, Security and Safety • policy recommendations are discussed under and AWTs as a security threat eleven (11) main headings. Finally, the main concepts and recommendations are summarised Chapter 5: Case study – AWT Status in Korea • in a European policy blueprint for AWTs. Chapter 6: Implications for Europe and • policy recommendations 2
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  25. 25. 2. AWT – Introduction and Overview Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers 2.2 Overview of Technologies and The objective of this chapter is to set the Supporting Communities stage for the subsequent ones by introducing the concept of AWT and the main technologies Mobile and wireless technologies can be and standards involved. Section 2.1 introduces characterised and categorised in a variety of ways. and defines the concept of AWTs. Section 2.2 However, it is commonly agreed that the basic provides an overview of the most significant determinants of the types of services and business AWTs and their general characteristics. Finally, models that they are able to support consist of the main standards and technologies are reviewed speed and mobility. While speed is a factor of the in Section 2.3. bandwidth and latency characteristics of a particular technology, the mobility provided is determined by the cell range of the technology and the extent 2.1 AWTs Defined to which seamless handover between cells is In recent decades, mobile communications possible. Technologies offering low data speeds have been dominated and shaped by 1G, 2G are often labelled narrowband technologies, as and 3G cellular systems. From time to time, opposed to broadband technologies offering high alternative technologies have challenged these data speeds. Technologies offering high mobility systems, but largely failed in the market (satellite are referred to as mobile technologies, enabling systems such as Iridium and cordless technologies the establishment of wide area or metropolitan such as Telepoint). As mobile communications area networks; while technologies offering low are becoming more data-capable and demand mobility constitute local or even personal area for data communications services is increasing networks, providing so-called fixed wireless following the growth of the Internet and local area access or nomadic access. networks (LANs), new growth opportunities open The mobile and wireless arena is an extremely up, not only for cellular but for also for emerging dynamic scene in which technologies are adapted, alternative technologies. Such alternatives are extended and converging towards ever-increasing here termed “Alternative Wireless Technologies” bandwidths and mobility. Most prominently, (AWTs). there is a strong drive towards the development AWTs enable, in sum, the provisioning of and implementation of network technologies existing and new services to mobile users and offering increasing data speeds. This is fuelled by allow communications between computers, the expectation that broadband technologies will PDAs, phones, consumer electronics devices enable mass market uptake of innovative, rich and appliances – in office, home, and/or public and user-friendly services and will allow a whole environments. AWTs may operate in licensed or range of market players to develop viable and unlicensed frequency bands and can be applied in sustainable business models. Therefore, this report a number of different topologies such as meshed focuses on new broadband technologies, offering networks and ad-hoc networks. In principle AWTs both high mobility and low mobility. The figure cover all emerging wireless technologies with the below demonstrates the dynamic and converging exception of cellular technologies. For the purposes nature of mobile and wireless technologies 2 of this report, however, satellite- and airship- towards so-called fourth-generation (4G) mobile based communications as well as broadcasting broadband network technologies. technologies (e.g. DVB) are excluded.
  26. 26. Figure 2‑1 Wireless Technology Overview 2. AWT — Introduction and Overview Sources: Adapted from Annexes 1 and 2 2.3 AWT Descriptions The convergence of technologies implies the convergence of different sectors and communities The AWTs covered in this report are: (1) supporting these technologies. While these existing in the market today and/or (2) on their communities are frequently overlapping in way towards standardisation or in (advanced) terms of stakeholders and their ambitions, they RD stages and/or (3) potentially presenting a are also often in conflict with different regional challenge to traditional business models in the and sectoral scope. Table 2-2 in Appendix 1 mobile market. Specifically, we consider the shows that there are EU, US as well as Asia- following AWT types and technologies, each centric standard bodies and consortia. Also, described in the subsequent sections3: communities often tend to be dominated by the short-range protocols (such as WLAN /Wi-Fi, • telecommunications industry or the IT and fixed UWB, NFC, ZigBee and Bluetooth) wireless industry. In addition and conjunction to the technology development trajectories of these longer-range protocols (WiMax, Flash • industries, there is a thriving worldwide research OFDM, 3G enhancements such as UMTS- community working on very high-performing air TDD) interfaces and other network technologies. Finally, meshed and ad-hoc networking • a number of proprietary technologies are already on the market today, with the objective to set the de facto standard in the field. These are often IP- 2.3.1 UWB (Ultra-Wideband) based technologies developed and promoted by Ultra-Wideband (UWB) is a wireless start-up vendors such as Flarion, Arraycomm, IP 2 communications technology that transmits Wireless, Redline Communications and Alvarion. 3 Please consult Annex 1-2 for further information and sources.
  27. 27. 2.3.2 WiMax (802.16x) data in short pulses which are spread out over Mapping European Wireless Trends and Drivers a very wide swath of spectrum. The technology WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for originated from military research and is Microwave access) is a longer-range wireless nowadays being standardised and developed access technology based on the IEEE 802.16 for civil application. UWB uses an extremely standard suite. The WiMax protocol suite consists wideband of spectrum to transmit the data. In of a number of variants. The first version (802.16) this way, the technology is able to transmit more is primarily intended for use as fixed wireless data in a given period of time than traditional access, as it operates in the spectrum between 10- radio technologies. By using low power levels, 66 GHz requiring line of sight. But later versions UWB has very little interference impact on other also allow for nomadic access and even mobile systems. Due to the large bandwidth it is rather operation (802.16e). The WiMax forum certified insensitive itself to interference from other radio that shared bandwidths of around 40 Mbps and sources. UWB allows ultra-high data rates (~ cell radii of 3-10 km, and shared bandwidths of 100s of Mbps) between devices, but due to the 15 Mbps and cell radii of around 3 km, can be power limitations, they must be close to each expected for fixed and portable, and for mobile other (at maximum ~ 20 m). Due to the strict application, respectively. Note however that, power limitations, UWB radios will be cheap in practice, reach and bandwidth will strongly and consume low power. Two versions of UWB depend on transmission power (much lower for exist, a time domain and an OFDM version. unlicensed than for licensed bands), antennas, There are several fora standardising UWB. protocol overhead and propagation conditions. Within IEEE, the IEEE P802.15 Working Group E.g. in the case of mobile application (requiring is the working group for Wireless Personal omnidirectional antennas) in unlicensed bands, Area Networks. The MultiBand OFDM Alliance the range corresponding to 15 Mbps could be (MBOA) is working on standards for both the reduced to only several hundreds of meters. physical and the MAC layers (IEEE 802.15.3a) Regulations allow deployment of WiMax in the of UWB. The WiMedia Alliance is working on licensed 2.5 GHz, 3.5 GHz and 26 GHz (non- developing a convergence layer that will allow line-of-sight) bands, and in the unregulated the UWB MAC layer to interface with a number 5.8 GHz bands. Note that the Dutch regulator of standard protocols, such as USB, WUSB, IEEE restricted the use of the licensed bands to fixed 1394 and UPnP. Finally, protocols should be wireless access only. developed take advantage of UWB. The WUSB WiMax can be used for leased lines, specification, developed through the Wireless residential access, nomadic access (hotspot) and USB Promoter Group, and the specification of a wide-area broadband access. Currently, only fixed Protocol Adaptation Layer through the 1394 Trade wireless access is possible. Intel has announced Association are examples of these. implementations of WiMax cards in PDAs and The MAC and physical layer specifications laptops in 2006, allowing nomadic access. Mobile will be released to the MBOA member companies implementations (in phones) are not expected at the end of 2004. Initial UWB-based products before 2008. Thus depending on the area of are expected to be introduced in 2005 and it is deployment, WiMax could be an alternative to widely expected that substantial volumes will find xDSL and FttH access, WLAN hotspots or UMTS. their way into consumer applications by 2006. Key The WiMax standard suite is IEEE standards players are Intel, Agere, Intersil and USB product (IEEE 802.16x). The WiMax forum assures vendors. TimeDomain, a very early start-up on the 2 compatibility and interoperability between IEEE time domain alternative of UWB, went broke and 802.16x implementations through testing and vanished from the market. certification of equipment. Vendors with (pre-

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