Jeremy Waite's Climate Change Keynote

1. The greatest threat to our planet is believing that someone else will save it. Robert Swan

2. @JeremyWaite

3. Source: NASA

4. Source: NASA

5. Source: NASA

6. Some energy is radiated back into space by the earth in the form of infrared waves Most of this radiation is absorbed by the Earth and warms it Solar radiation in the form of lightwaves passes through the atmosphere Some of this outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by the earth’s atmosphere and warms it

7. We are now spewing 110 million tons of manmade global warming pollution into the thin shell of our atmosphere every 24 hours, as if it were an open sewer. © Peter Weber/Shutterstock

8. The energy trapped by man-made global warming pollution is now “…equivalent to exploding   Hiroshima atomic bombs   per day 365 days per year.” 500,000 James Hansen Former Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

9. 500,000 Times per day Source: U.S. Government

10. As the CO2 concentration increases, more of the outgoing infrared radiation is trapped.

12. The Largest Source of Global Warming Pollution Is the Burning of Fossil Fuels 2 4 6 8 10 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2018 Data: U.S. Department of Energy/CDIAC BillionMetricTonsofCarbon

13. The 3 Most Important Charts in Climate Change…

14. CO2 is being released into the atmosphere faster than at any time in at least the last 66 million years. Source: RE Zeebe, et al., Nature Geoscience, March 2016

15. 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP) 300 180 200 220 240 260 280 CO2Concentration CO2(ppmv) Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

16. 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP) 300 180 200 220 240 260 280 CO2Concentration CO2(ppmv) Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA Temperature

17. 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP) 300 180 200 220 240 260 280 CO2Concentration CO2(ppmv) Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA Temperature 400 320 340 360 380 2019 CO2 Concentration: 415 420

18. 2019 CO2 Concentration: 415 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP) 300 180 200 220 240 260 280 CO2Concentration CO2(ppmv) Temperature 400 320 340 360 380 420 After 40 more years at the current rate of increase Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

19. -0.5° 0.0° 0.5° 1.0° 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Global Surface Temperature – Departure from Average 1880 – 2018 Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Anomaly(°C)

20. 2010 2005 2007 2013 2006 1998 2002 2003 2011 2014 2012 2015 2009 2016 18 of the 19 Hottest Years on Record Have Occurred Since the Year 2001 The Hottest of All Have Been the Last Five Years Data: NASA/GISS 2004 2001 2017 2018

21. Cambridge, UK July 25th, 2019 The UK’s highest ever temperature was recorded at Cambridge University measuring 38.5° C (101.3° F).

22. Berkshire, England July 5, 2018 © Wessex News Agency

26. At least 224 locations around   the world set all-time heat records in 2018. Background Map © James Hastings-Trew

27. Siberia Arctic Ocean High temperatures in Northern Siberia were up to 22° C (40° F) higher than normal in early July 2018. 34° C Map Data © OpenStreetMap contributors; Rendering: GIScience Research Group at Heidelberg University cc by sa 2.0

28. © Tom Van Sant

29. The temperature at the North Pole was 28° C (50° F) hotter than normal on February 25, 2018. © Marketa Jirouskova via Getty Images

30. © Tom Van Sant/Geosphere Project, Santa Monica/Science Photo Library

31. ? ? ? ? +1 C˚ 3x © Tom Van Sant/Geosphere Project, Santa Monica/Science Photo Library

32. Asia U.S.A. Europe Split Polar Vortex Stratospheric Warming Polar Vortex In mid-February 2018, the Polar Vortex split in two, bringing bitter cold to parts of North America and Europe, and record warmth to the Arctic. © 2018 IBCAO Landsat/Copernicus INEGI U.S. Geological Survey; Data: SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO

35. © earth.nullschool.net January 3, 2019 North Pole

37. 500 800 1100 1400 1700 2000 SeaIceExtent(km2) Data: Kinnard, C., C.M. Zdanowicz, D.A. Fisher, E. Isaksson, A. de Vernal and L.G. Thompson. (2011). Reconstructed change in Arctic sea ice over the last 1,450 years. Nature letter, DOI:10.1038/nature10581, Fig. 3 1.1x107 1.0x107 9.0x106 8.0x106 Year Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Last 1,500 Years

38. The North Pole has now experienced   mid-winter heatwaves three years in a row: 2016 2017 2018

39. Temperature Anomaly °F °C Greenland April 11, 2016 Jakobshavn   Glacier Data and Image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

41. Summer 1935Summer 2013 Images courtesy Anders Bjørk, © Natural History Museum of Denmark/Tholstrup (2013) and Danish Geodata Agency (1935) Unnamed Glacier, Southwest Greenland

42. -4,000 -3,500 -3,000 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 ChangeinIceMass(Gigatonnes) Data: NASA Images courtesy Anders Bjørk, © Natural History Museum of Denmark/Tholstrup (2013) and Danish Geodata Agency (1935) Declining Ice Mass in Greenland

43. Steffen M. Olsen, Danish Meteorological Institute Northwest Greenland June 13, 2019

44. Greenland Melt Extent July 31, 2019 Data: Polar Portal (DMI, GEUS, DTU) On July 31st, 60% of the surface of Greenland’s ice sheet experienced melting, losing more than 10 billion tons of ice in a single day.

46. Source: 2017 NASA

48. 0 5 10 15 Top 10 Cities at Risk from Sea Level Rise in 2070 By Population at Risk Data: Nichols, et al., OECD Environment Working Paper No. 1 (ENV/WKP(2007)1) 2070PopulationatRisk(inMillions) Kolkata Mumbai Dhaka Guangzhou HoChiMinhCity Shanghai Bangkok Rangoon Miami HaiPhong

49. US$0.0 US$1.0 US$2.0 US$3.0 US$4.0 Top 10 Cities at Risk from Sea Level Rise in 2070 By Assets at Risk Data: Nichols, et al., OECD Environment Working Paper No. 1 (ENV/WKP(2007)1) EstimatedExposedAssets(TrillionUSD) Miami Guangzhou NewYork/Newark Kolkata Shanghai Mumbai Tianjin Tokyo HongKong Bangkok

51. 93% of the extra Heat trapped by manmade global warming pollution goes into the Ocean © Tom Van Sant/Geosphere Project, Santa Monica/Science Photo Library

52. -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Global Ocean Heat Content Change Since 1960 Surface to 300 m 300 to 700 m 700 to 2,000 m Data: P. Gleckler, et al., Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades, Nature Climate Change 6, 394–398 (2016) fig. 4. 50% 2,000 m and more OceanHeatContent(1022J) 0–2000mDepth Half of this increase has occurred in the last twenty years.

53. 20 40 60 80 100 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Annual Ocean “Heat Wave” Days Data: Smale et al., Nature Climate Change, 2019. Heat Wave days per one degree (area) square of ocean. GloballyAveragedNumberofHeatWaveDays

54. Data: National Geographic, NOAA Image: ©Dudarev Mikhail/Shutterstock The world’s oceans are now   30% more acidic,   on average, than they were before the industrial revolution.

55. Data: The Ocean Agency via National Geographic Video © DISCOVOD via Pond 5 Coral reefs support up to a million species, on which nearly one billion people depend for food and livelihoods.

56. Bleached Coral, Great Barrier Reef Photo © Australia Research Council Centre of Excellence, Coral Reef Studies The Great Barrier Reef has lost half its coral cover in the last 30 years—and 30% just since 2016.

57. Source: World Wildlife Fund, 2015 Photo: © 2008 Brocken Inaglory/Wikicommons CC BY-SA 3.0 At the northern edge of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef,   99% of young green sea turtles are now female. Sea turtle sex is determined by temperature.

58. Source: World Wildlife Fund, 2015 Photo: © Igor Kruglikov via Shutterstock Populations of marine vertebrates declined 49% on average from 1970 to 2012.

59. Source: Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change Photo: © Dirk Ercken/Shutterstock We now risk losing up to 50% of all land-based species in this century

60. Evaporation Precipitation Water Returns to the Sea The Hydrological Cycle Sources: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Dept. of Energy; © Getty Images; © Pond5

61. Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, National Center for Computational Sciences As Temperatures Increase, the Oceans Evaporate More Moisture into the Sky

62. Warmer air can hold a lot more water vapor With each additional 1° (C) of temperature, the atmosphere’s capacity to hold   water vapor increases by 7% There is already 5% more water vapor over the oceans than there was only 30 years ago Source: K. Trenberth, “Changes in Precipitation with Climate Change,” Climate Research, March 2011

65. -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global Record-Breaking Precipitation Anomalies Data: Jascha Lehmann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Numberofrecord-breakingevents comparedtostationaryclimate(%) 2016

71. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Worldwide Extreme Weather CatastrophesNumberofEvents Data: 2017 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As of January 2018. Extreme temperatures, droughts, fires Floods, mudslides Storms 1980 – 2018

72. Economic losses from extreme weather totaled £504 billion over the past two years alone.

74. The same extra heat that evaporates more water from the ocean, causing bigger downpours and floods… An Inconvenient Truth © 2006 by Paramount Classics, a Division of Paramount Pictures. All Rights Reserved. …pulls moisture even more quickly from the soil, causing longer and deeper droughts.

76. Sources: Colin Price, “Lightning and global temperature change,” 2014.  Romps, et al., “Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming,” Science, 2014. Video: © Elmwood/Pond5 For every 1° C of warming, lightning strikes increase 10 – 12%

77. 61.0° 62.0° 63.0° 64.0° 65.0° 66.0° 67.0° 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Hotter Years Typically Have More Fires Western U.S. Large Fires and May – September Temperatures 150 100 50 NumberofLargeFires 0 AverageTemperature(°F) Temperature Fires Data: NOAA, USFS/Climate Central

83. The three most expensive wildfires in world history have happened in the last two years: 2018 Camp Fire California 2017 Tubbs Fire California 2018 Woolsey Fire California “Expensive” in terms of insured losses Photo © 2018 AP Photo/Noah Berger Data: Aon Benfield Camp Fire Damage, Paradise, California

84. The Cost of Carbon $ Storm Damage $ Wildfires $ Drought $ Floods & Mudslides $ Melting Glaciers $ Ocean Acidification $ Infrastructure Loss $ Climate Refugees $ Political Instability $ Sea Level Rise $ Famine $ Water Scarcity $ Ecosystem Loss $ Species Extinction $ Infectious Diseases $ Our Way of Life $ “The #1 Threat to the   Global Economy” $$$$$$ … And much, much more© 2005 iStockphoto/themoog

85. “The vast majority of [carbon] reserves are unburnable.” Mark Carney Governor, Bank of England October 2014

86. 2795 Gt CO2 The “Subprime Carbon” Bubble Unburnable  $22 Trillion Burnable* All Fossil Fuels Burned from 1850 – 2010 Remaining Proven   Fossil Fuel Reserves 1821 Gt CO2 Data: Think Progress * To preserve the possibility of limiting the heat increase to 2° C Burned since 2000

87. In July 2019,   BP’s head of strategy   admitted that some of   its unextracted resources   “won’t see the light of day.”

88. $0.0 T $0.5 T $1.0 T $1.5 T $2.0 T $2.5 T $3.0 T $3.5 T $4.0 T $4.5 T $5.0 T $5.5 T Global Energy Subsidies Renewables Fossil Fuels Sources: International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund $5.2 Trillion $143 Billion 36x

89. We have the solutions at hand...

90. Green Energy Progress How Do Projections Compare With Reality? Data: International Energy Agency; Global Wind Energy Council; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2000 Projection By 2018 that goal was exceeded by a factor of Worldwide wind capacity will reach 30 GW by 2010 Reality 20 x

91. 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Global Wind Energy Capacity 1980 – Present WindCapacity(Megawatts) Data: Earth Policy Institute/Bloomberg New Energy Finance

92. Globally, wind could supply worldwide electricity consumption 40 times over

97. Bloomberg New Energy Finance New Energy Outlook 2019 “Today more than two-thirds of the global population lives in countries where solar and wind are the cheapest sources of new bulk generation.”

98. Solar Energy Progress How Do Projections Compare With Reality? Source: Fresh-Energy; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2002 Projection The solar energy market will grow one gigawatt per year by 2010 Reality 17 x The reality is that goal was exceeded by 109 x In 2018 it was exceeded by

99. 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 World Solar PV Installations 1980 – 2018 Data: Earth Policy Institute/BP, Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 (London: 2014); Bloomberg New Energy Finance Gigawatts(Cumulative)

100. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Cost of Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Modules $CostperWatt(InflationAdjusted) 1976 $79.40/watt 2019 $0.25/watt Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

101. In June 2018,   Nevada’s NV Energy   signed an agreement to   purchase solar electricity at   2.4 cents per kilowatt hour,   the lowest price paid so far   in the United States.

107. New Electricity Capacity in China, 2018 Solar Wind Hydro Coal Nuclear Data: China Energy Portal 53% of new capacity was from solar and wind.

108. New Electricity Capacity in India, 2018 Solar Wind Hydro Coal Data: Mercom India Research Other Renewables 65% of new capacity was from solar and wind.

109. New Electricity Capacity in Europe, 2018 Solar Wind Natural Gas Data: WindEurope Other Renewables 88% of new capacity was from solar and wind. Coal

110. Is there any precedent for such a rapid adoption of a new technology?

111. In 1980 AT&T commissioned a study to forecast cell phone use by the year 2000 They projected 900,000 users The actual figure was 109 million 120 x higher

112. There are now  8.7 Billion   cell-phone connections

113. So why were they not only wrong, but WAY wrong?

114. The Cost Dropped Sharply, as The Quality Improved Dramatically, and All the Low-Income Nations With No Land-Line Grids Leap-frogged the Old Technology. 1. 2. 3.

115. 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Mobile Phone Subscriptions (Billions)Subscriptions Developed Countries Developing Countries 6 B 5 B 4 B 3 B 2 B 1 B Data: World Bank

117. Pay-as-you-go Solar Power Photo courtesy Azuri Technologies Low initial costs make small solar systems affordable in developing countries Nimule, South Sudan

118. Cost of Clean Energy Technologies in the U.S. -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data: Natural Resources Defense Council Residential PV Utiilty-scale PV Wind EV Batteries LED Lightbulbs - 59% - 75% - 82% - 74% - 94%

120. 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 End of 2013 End of 2016 End of 2018 In Process InstalledCapacity(GW) Data: La Comisión Nacional de Energía, Chile 11 MW 1.1 GW 2.3 GW Chile has an additional   16.67 GW   of solar projects approved or under construction. The Chilean Solar Market

121. Enough solar energy reaches Earth every hour to fill all the world’s energy needs for a full year

122. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Global Cumulative Storage CapacityGigawatts Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Historical

123. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040 Global Cumulative Storage CapacityGigawatts Projected to 2040 Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Energy storage deployments doubled from 2017 to 2018 and are projected to double again in 2019.

124. Lithium-ion Battery Prices Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (volume-weighted averages) $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USDPerKilowattHour

126. Manatee County, Florida Florida Power and Light just announced it will replace two natural gas-fired power plants with solar farms and a new battery system four times larger than the now largest.From Bradenton Herald. ©2019 McClatchy. All rights reserved. Used under license.

127. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, every nation in the world agreed   to work together to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. © SevArt/Pond5 The U.S. cannot legally withdraw until the day after the 2020 Presidential election.

128. U.S. Coal Plants 2005 – 2017 Proposed and Defeated Retired New Plants Existing Plants Retirement announced Data: The Sierra Club

129. 30 countries have joined the   Powering Past Coal  alliance, a group dedicated to “taking action to accelerate clean growth and climate protection through the rapid phase-out of traditional coal power.” Angola Austria Belgium Canada Costa Rica Denmark El Salvador Ethiopia Fiji Finland France Ireland Tuvalu Senegal Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Vanuatu Italy Latvia Liechtenstein Luxembourg Israel Lithuania Marshall Islands Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Portugal Niue

131. 112 global financial institutions have announced they will stop financing coal-fired power plants.

132. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Global Corporate Clean   Energy Purchase Agreements Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance AnnualVolume(Gigawatts)

133. Over 190 global companies have made a commitment to go 100% renewable

134. 29th JULY, 2019 Ethiopia plants 350M Trees in 12 Hours

135. UK Drone Startup BioCarbon Can Plant 400,000 Trees a Day

137. 1st MAY 2019 UK Becomes First Country To Declare A Climate Emergency

138. 1st NOVEMBER, 2019 UK Government Bans Fracking

139. 2nd NOVEMBER, 2019 UK Government Gives £520,000 To Create Citizens Assembly

140. 7th OCTOBER, 2019 UK Government Approves Drax Gas Fired Power Station

141. Join those who are using   their voicestheir votestheir choices to fight the climate crisis

142. Take action now Use your voiceyour voteyour choices Go to ThinkClimate.Earth

143. Source: NASA

144. After the final no comes a yes. And on that yes, the future world depends. Wallace Stevens

145. Thank you for listening. ThinkClimate.earth