The Trump Putin meeting would seem to be a good occasion to review the existential threat liberal democracy finds itself under in multiple countries today. I have the impression that the way this narrative has taken shape since 2016 has taken most of us by surprise. This slide show is my best effort at a concise summary of relevant extracts from the Future Today chronology.

1. How liberal democracy
can die
in our lifetimes
in 30 pictures & charts

2. Democracy has regressed in multiple countries
since 2007, and liberal democracy especially
7th Jan
2016
12th Jun
2018
In 1941 there were only a dozen democracies; by 2000 only 8 states had
never held a serious election. But since the financial crisis of 2007-08….

3. 7th Jan
2016
July
2016
“Even in some of the richest and most politically stable regions of the
world, it seems as though democracy is in a state of serious disrepair.”
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
65+ 45 - 64
Europe
2010-12
35 - 44 25 - 34 16 - 24
USA
2011
USA
1995
Europe
1995-97
Source: World Values Surveys
Foa & Mounck 2016
Significant minorities oppose democracy in the
USA & Europe …and the numbers are growing
Percentage of the
population viewing
“having a democratic
political system” as a
“bad” or “very bad”
way to “run this
country” is rising
on both sides of
the Atlantic.

4. "How the Populist Right Is Redrawing the Map
of Europe"
7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2017
“A rising tide of anti-immigrant and populist sentiment that is sweeping
aside or weakening mainstream party politics across the continent.”

5. Much of this is being fueled by enforced migration
and associated hate-mongering by overt authoritarians
and the authoritarian-inclined

6. Russia and Syria are “weaponising the refugee
crisis” in an effort to destabilise Europe
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
3rd Mar
2016
So General Phil Breedlove, Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander for
Europe and head of the US European Command, testifies.

7. Meanwhile Orban’s state-controlled media pump out scare stories about
migration-linked crime and terrorism, and the “Soros network”.
Hungarian government tables new law that could
jail lawyers advising migrants of their rights
7th Jan
2016
3rd Jun
2018
Future Today

8. Erdoğan narrowly wins Turkish election in “climate
of fear”, assuming quasi-dictatorial powers
7th Jan
2016
24th Jun
2018
A pro-government television station accidentally aired election results 3
days before the polls ..showing the 53 % that Erdoğan actually achieved.

9. This is happening at just the time tech is serving up the
perfect infrastructure for unbreakable police states

10. 7th Jan
2016
26th Dec
2016
“2016: The Mainstream Media Melted Down
as Fake News Festered”
By August fake news was increasingly outperforming
the top stories at the 19 major news outlets

11. Amanda Taub & Max Fisher on role of fake news: “Facebook’s newsfeed
played a central role in nearly every step from rumor to killing.”
“Where Countries Are Tinderboxes and Facebook
Is a Match”
7th Jan
2016
21st Apr
2018
Buddhist mob
burns a Muslim
- owned shop
in Sri Lanka,
March 2018

12. A US National Bureau of Economic Research study suggests they added
fully 3.2% to the Trump vote and a crucial 1.76% to pro Leave.
Twitter bots may have altered outcomes of both
Trump and Brexit elections by targeting margins
7th Jan
2016
21st May
2018

13. 7th Jan
2016
6th July
2018
“The threat that such a massive, automated surveillance apparatus
poses to society far outweighs the security benefits it could provide.”
Amazon’s AI lets governments track all faces:
“there is no way to use this and not harm citizens”
“As academics who have studied IT and privacy, including the social
implications of face recognition and biometrics, we are calling on
Amazon to get out of the surveillance business”: Peter Asaro et al

14. 7th Jan
2016
13th Mar
2017
Microsoft researcher warns AI is “ripe for abuse”
by authoritarian regimes
“This is a fascist’s dream - power without accountability”:
Kate Crawford

15. Elon Musk warns of prospect for “an immortal
dictator from which we can never escape”
7th Jan
2016
6th Apr
2018
This in a documentary on AI and robotics out today, “Do You Trust This
Computer?” Google’s DeepMind is a big step in this direction, he says.
“If one company or small group of people manages to
develop godlike digital superintelligence, they could
take over the world,"

16. George Soros: Facebook and Google are a “menace”
to society and must be regulated
7th Jan
2016
26th Jan
2018
He fears merger of their AI-based surveillance with that of states,
leading to “a web of totalitarian control the likes of which not even
Aldous Huxley or George Orwell could have imagined.”

17. The weapons needed for absolute subjugation
of populations are neither large nor costly
and they exist today
For example…..

18. The CEO of a fictional robotics company launches a killer drone
technology Silicon-Valley-style. In real life, there are all shapes & sizes….
AI researchers create terrifying video in a call for a
UN ban on autonomous weapons (killer robots)
7th Jan
2016
1st Dec
2017

19. “A Global Arms Race for Killer Robots
Is Transforming Warfare”
7th Jan
2016
9th Apr
2018
Stuart Russell, professor of artificial intelligence at Berkeley: “We have
an opportunity to prevent this, but the window to act is closing fast.”

20. “...cheap and convenient assassination machines
available to everybody with an axe to grind”
7th Jan
2016
28th Aug
2017
So Max Tegmark, professor of physics at MIT, co-founder of the Future
of Life Institute, describes killer robots. As one of 10 reasons for a ban.

21. Which must mean that much depends on how
tech-savvy younger citizens engage
And that is a worry, because….

22. 7th Jan
2016
The younger you are in the USA and Europe,
the less you are likely to care about democracy
July
2016
Highest: more than 70% in Europeans born in the 1930s.
Lowest: little more than 30% in Americans born in the 1980s.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% by birth cohort
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s
Europe
USA
The percent of the
population who deem it
“essential” (10 on a 10
point scale) to live in a
country governed
democratically is falling on
both sides of the Atlantic
Source: World Values Surveys
Foa & Mounk 2016

23. So it is clearly crucial how tech leaders line up
in the fight for liberal democracy
And that is a terrifying thought,
because….

24. % in USA responding that it
would be “good” or “very
good” to have “a strong leader”
who “doesn’t have to bother
with parliament and elections”:
1995: <20%
2010: >34%
7th Jan
2016
July
2016
Upper income
respondents
Lower and middle
income
respondents
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
1995 2000 20102005
Rising support for illiberal politics is growing fastest
among the rich elite in the USA
Most strong in young & rich (born since 1970): Those believing that it
would be a “good” thing for the army to take over: 1995 6%, 2016 35%
Source: World Values Surveys
Foa & Mounk 2016

25. Aeisha Mastagni: “Who is it that holds Mr Zuckerberg to account?” One
share should equal one vote. “Facebook, it is time to act like an adult.”
“Facebook’s dual-class share structure is akin to a
dictatorship”: Calstrs portfolio manager in the FT
7th Jan
2016
10th May
2018

26. Zuckerberg labels Musk’s concerns about AI
and killer robots “pretty irresponsible”
7th Jan
2016
25 Jul
2017
“I have pretty strong opinions on this. I think people who are naysayers
….I just, I don’t understand it.”

27. US start up Anduril tests AI surveillance tech on the
Mexico border that acts as a virtual border wall
7th Jan
2016
11th Jun
2018
They use tower-mounted sensors to monitor anyone within 2 miles.
Customs say they have helped in 55 arrests of unauthorized crossers.

28. Anduril founder Palmer Luckey, also founder of
Oculus, aims to develop a range of AI military tools
7th Jan
2016
11th Jun
2018
He is a funder of the alt-right and a Trump supporter. Investors include
Peter Thiel, a Silicon Valley billionaire with the same credentials.

29. 7th Jan
2016
5th July
2018
“How do I maintain authority over my security force after the (collapse)
event?”: a typical question from super-rich clients in Q&A about their
“how to escape” vision of the future …and how to use tech to execute it.
“Survival of the Richest: The Wealthy Are Plotting
To Leave Us Behind”: tech author Douglas Rushkoff

30. China may be playing a positive role in climate change,
but it also points the way to the kind of society that
the surviving liberal democracies risk descending into….

31. 7th Jan
2016
28th Jul
2017
The biggest facial recognition system in the world
is rolling out in China ….and the most invasive use
Officials aim to enroll every Chinese citizen into a nationwide database by 2020.
A recently pioneered social credit system aims to give every citizen a rating.

32. 7th Jan
2016
8th July
2018
“China is reversing the commonly held vision of technology as a great
democratizer, bringing people more freedom and connecting them.”
“Inside China’s Dystopian Dreams: A.I., Shame and
Lots of Cameras”
c. 200 million of
these nationwide

33. Beijing “is committing some of the most extensive, and neglected,
human-rights violations in the world” against Muslim Uighurs.
“China has turned Xinjiang into a police state
like no other”
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2018
Future Today

34. 7th Jan
2016
23rd Jul
2017
Chinese companies are helping police develop AI
intending to identify criminals before they act
Li Meng, vice-minister of science and technology: If we use AI, “we can know
beforehand . . . who might be a terrorist, who might do something bad.”

35. 10 years ago China spent $35 bn on defence. Now $230 bn. Silicon
Valley started out on DoD largesse.
People’s Liberation Army and corporate China
“draw ever closer” as military budget rises: FT
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018

36. And who is bankrolled this armour-plating of dictatorship?
Many western financial institutions.
“World's Biggest AI Startup Raises $1.2 Billion in
Mere Months”: Bloomberg on Sense Time Group
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2018
Future Today

37. And who among democratic leaders is speaking out, or
at least saying “you have your system, we have ours”….

38. Donald Trump praises Xi Jinping's President-for-life
power grab & says….
7th Jan
2016
4th Mar
2018
“Dictators are always arrogant. It’s a disaster for political civilization.”
Qiao Mu, exiled Chinese journalism professor.

39. How to stem the tide is a question
without a simple answer
To be addressed in a forthcoming slide show
on Future Today
www.jeremyleggett.net