FINANCIAL FUTURES 2022The FUTURE of Consumerto Business Payment    Prepared by    Eric Blais    Jen Chow    Jessica Mills ...
Table of Contents                           0     1 Financial Futures 2022 ..................................................
Financial                    Futures 2022                  1financial futures    blais, chow, mills, norman   1
1             Financial Futures 2022Statement of the Project                                         will have near-freque...
Financial Futures 2022               1Research QuestionAfter refining the scope for this foresight study and before choosi...
Financial Futures 2022              1  Financial System  When considering futures within the financial sector, there are m...
Financial Futures 2022                    1  The payment system below represents a balancing feedback loop with businesses...
Horizon Scanning                   2financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman   6
2            Horizon ScanningOne of the most comprehensive and critical                      networks for financial suppor...
Horizon Scanning                 2Mobi-Me-Money                                                   All In All There’s Anoth...
Drivers              and Uncertainties                  3financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman   9
Drivers3            and UncertaintiesThe underlying forces behind trends are known as drivers. There can be multiple drive...
Drivers and Uncertainties                     3Drivers with high uncertainty and importance emerged. Once identified, we a...
Scenarios       4financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman   12
4           Scenarios“Thinking through [scenario]stories, and talking in depth abouttheir implications, brings eachperson’...
Scenarios                                                       4financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman           14
Scenarios     4United States of AppleHigh GovernanceCentralized Financial ServicesIn 2015, Apple bailed out the U.S. gover...
Scenarios      4United States of Apple                                                                                    ...
Scenarios         4United States of Apple                                                                                 ...
Scenarios      4Rise of the BrandHigh governanceDe-centralized Financial ServicesThe year is 2022 and the multinational co...
Scenarios      4Rise of the Brand                                                                                         ...
Scenarios         4Rise of the Brand                                                                                      ...
Scenarios      4Multiple Choice WorldLow governanceDe-centralized Financial ServicesIt is June 2022 in a world of hyper-co...
Scenarios       4Multiple Choice World                                                                                    ...
Scenarios         4Multiple Choice World                                                                                  ...
Scenarios      4Powered by GoogleLow governanceCentralized Financial ServicesIn 2022, this techno-political world sees a n...
Scenarios     4Powered by Google                                                                                          ...
Scenarios         4Powered by Google                                                                                      ...
Scenarios       4Signposts for Monitoring Efforts Going ForwardA signpost is a signal or indicator that a given scenario m...
Strategic Options                 5financial futures        blais, chow, mills, norman   28
5            Strategic OptionsSurfacing and Creating Options                                 Clarifying and ClusteringTaki...
Strategic Options             5Refining Strategic Options                                     Enhance Customer ExperienceU...
Strategic Options          5Evaluating Strategic Options Via Wind TunnelingWind Tunneling is a process by which the strate...
Strategic Options               5Wind Tunneling Implications by ScenarioUnited States of Apple                            ...
Strategic Options               5Rise of the Brand                                                Customer Experience     ...
Strategic Options                                                                                          5Rise of the Br...
Strategic Options               5Multiple Choice World                                             built on accessibility ...
Strategic Options                                                                                        5Multiple Choice ...
Strategic Options              5Powered by Google                                             Role of Community           ...
Strategic Options          5Discussion of Options and Stakeholder ImplicationsFrom the options elicited and refined from o...
Strategic Options                5Multiple Coverage Strategy                                     Gambling StrategyA Balanc...
Strategic Options           5Strategy Assessment ToolIn order to assess which strategy to implement, and taking into consi...
Strategic Options                                                                                         5Next StepsThere...
Bios                                                  6financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman          42
Bios                                                                                                          6Eric Leo Bl...
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
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This body of work on the Future of Consumer to Business Payment was prepared by Eric Leo Blais, Jen Chow, Jessica Mills, and Richard Norman in Fall 2011 as part of their Foresight Studio in OCAD University's Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation program.

Feel free to send questions or comments to @jenchow or jen[at]jenchow.ca. Thanks for reading!

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The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman

  1. 1. FINANCIAL FUTURES 2022The FUTURE of Consumerto Business Payment Prepared by Eric Blais Jen Chow Jessica Mills Richard Norman December 1, 2011
  2. 2. Table of Contents 0 1 Financial Futures 2022 .............................................................................................................. 1 2 Horizon Scanning ....................................................................................................................... 6 Social trends ................................................................................................................... 7 Technological trends ....................................................................................................... 7 Economic trends ............................................................................................................. 8 Ecological trends ............................................................................................................. 8 Political trends ................................................................................................................. 8 Values trends .................................................................................................................. 8 3 Drivers and Critical Uncertainties............................................................................................. 9 4 Scenarios .................................................................................................................................. 12 United States of Apple .................................................................................................. 15 Rise of the Brand .......................................................................................................... 18 Multiple Choice World ................................................................................................... 21 Powered by Google ...................................................................................................... 24 5 Strategic options ...................................................................................................................... 28 6 Bios ............................................................................................................................................ 42 7 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 45financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman i
  3. 3. Financial Futures 2022 1financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 1
  4. 4. 1 Financial Futures 2022Statement of the Project will have near-frequency communication capabilities (Yadav, 2011), enabling smartphones to serve as bothThis is a proactive foresight initiative outlining possible wallets and payment devices. Dial-up internet will befutures for the financial and banking landscape in eclipsed by wireless networks, including emerging 4GCanada for the year 2022. The data and research is technology.Overviewpart of a graduate studies initiative undertaken in thefall of 2011. New technologies and innovations have been coming to market almost hourly in this rapidly- changing environment. In order to keep pace, telecommunications companies are evolving their services and expandingOn New Year’s Eve, as the clock struck midnight and into new markets, while banking entities are working tothe calendar rolled forward to 2000, the world waited facilitate secure financial transactions across multiplewith bated breath. What the technology industry had platforms. Privacy laws in Canada have becomeneglected to account for was this significant change some of the most protective in the world as our livesin its design: there were decades with the prefix of 19, have increasingly migrated online. It is critical for thesebut somehow there was never a plan for the inevitable industries to consider looking beyond the rapid cycleschange to accommodate the new millennium. There of daily or quarterly change and to look to the horizonwere concerns of system meltdowns, security and beyond for signals and indicators of potentialbreaches and nuclear and economic disasters. Task futures and the strategic implications for business.forces were created, plans executed and anticipated It is in this constant state of flux that we have chosenhysteria reported by the media. In the end, everything to explore the potential futures for the financial industrywas fine and the new millennium marched on. in 2022. Specifically, within the domain of the financialIt has been ten years since the Y2K panic. Since sector, we have chosen to focus on the system thatthen, landlines gave way to cellphones and now to enables consumer-to-business payments.smartphones, growing approximately 50% from March2010 to March 2011 (CBC News, 2011), with 32.8%market penetration in Canada (comScore, 2011). It isanticipated that within two years, 20% of all phonesfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 2
  5. 5. Financial Futures 2022 1Research QuestionAfter refining the scope for this foresight study and before choosing a specific stakeholder lens to adopt, wedecided to explore this research question:“For our key stakeholder, what is the future of consumer-to-business payment in 2022?”Key Stakeholder ProfileThe stakeholder perspective we adopted was that ofa senior leadership team with operational control ofa national bank in Canada with international reach.This bank has a tradition of being risk- averse, lateadopters and profit-driven. This bank offers B2B andC2B financial services to help facilitate B2B and C2Btransactions.Additional stakeholders and influencers consideredthroughout our process:• financial institutions• government• customers/end-users• telephone companies/network infrastructure providers• industry (retailers, services, manufacturers, etc.)• security boards• standards boards/regulatory groups• lobbyist groups• international funding agencies (IMF, WTO, G20, etc.)financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 3
  6. 6. Financial Futures 2022 1 Financial System When considering futures within the financial sector, there are many components and relationships to examine. To define our project scope, concept and systems maps were created in order to identify and highlight tensions and challenges affecting multiple stakeholders, including our key stakeholder. Following is an exploratory concept map we created to capture some key stakeholders and system components within the financial sector.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 4
  7. 7. Financial Futures 2022 1 The payment system below represents a balancing feedback loop with businesses paying employees, who in turn, pay for products and services. At the centre of this systems map is a myriad of transaction types, currencies and regulatory bodies facilitating consumer-to-business transactions. This part of the systems map will be ripe for innovation and regulatory change over the next 10 years as technological innovation and consumer demand continue to grow. Note: we considered businesses to be entities that receive payments and employ workers (including government entities, NGOs and non-profits). Our systems map offers a focused view of the various interactions that take place during a transaction. Incremental steps indicate opportunities for innovation and system streamlining. Once again, elements of this system will evolve with changes in regulations, consumer demand and technological development.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 5
  8. 8. Horizon Scanning 2financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 6
  9. 9. 2 Horizon ScanningOne of the most comprehensive and critical networks for financial support as opposed to relyingcomponents of foresighting and scenario-building on institution-based lending systems.is trend identification and analysis. Trends reflect apattern of change in data impacting a substantial Social (Media) Unrest: All For One, Onenumber of people over a period of time. For All…Sort ofFor this initiative, trends were identified and mapped The flavour of recent social uprisings parallels otherusing the STEEP+V framework, which encourages a emerging ideas: use of social media technology tocomprehensive scan of trends across the domains organize, shifting individual values, opportunism andof Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental self-interest, all in the face of austerity measures.and Values. To ensure a thorough horizon scan and a Everyone Manage Your Money360-degree view, we sought out emergent trends ineach of the STEEP+V categories. Mobile tools encouraging more financial management to help manage budgets and facilitate Technological TrendsThe sixteen trends identified for this initiative transactions.are clustered by STEEP+V theme below, andthe complete trends package is included in theSocial TrendsAppendix. Cashless Transactions Any Time AnywhereDancing Cheque to Cheque Proliferation of ways to pay on the go, around the clock.Each year, fewer Canadians save money for theirfuture. Some citizens are only one pay cheque away Smartphone as Personalized Branchfrom bankruptcy. Smartphones are increasingly capable of branchFriend Lend a Friend services.Emerging lending models that rely on individualfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 7
  10. 10. Horizon Scanning 2Mobi-Me-Money All In All There’s Another Bric In The….Financial transactions between payee and payer The rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) asare migrating from paper transactions of cash and economic powers is undeniable, yet there is reasoncheques to tech-based, online and mobile service to wonder whether Russia’s economic and politicalnetworks, creating less dependency on banking stability equals that of the other three nations. It begsservices. the question: Is there another nation set to take over its position as an emerging economic power?Get Your Head into the Clouds Paying in PointsCloud computing, an evolution in computingarchitecture, provides flexible and scalable Currency, as units of measure for exchange, isinfrastructure, software and hardware management, becoming increasingly fragmented. Loyalty pointsand allows for fluid customer-centric access to could become more reliable in the face of the Environmental Trendsproducts and services to support the next generation unstable Euro and American dollar.of banking.Uh Oh, I Think I’ve Virtually CaughtSomething No’ Mo’ Money GrowThere is an epidemic of cybercrime, which iscoordinated and sophisticatedly driven by highly The resources to support capitalist benchmarks of Political trendscoordinated teams. It is costing billions from theft, year over year growth are becoming scarcer.infrastructure and security, and threatens clientEconomic Trendsprivacy, eroding consumer confidence. I owe, I owe From home to government, the debt level in CanadaFinancial Climate Chaos Values Trends is increasing exponentially year after year.The national and financial landscape fluctuatesquickly and erratically. It has become incredibly hardto forecast financial investments due to the existingchaotic financial climate. Forever in DebtSymbiosis of Financial Institution and Social values regarding debt are changing. Year afterTelco year, the level of senior Canadians retiring with debtCredibility of financial institutions will complement is increasing.telecommunications networks.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 8
  11. 11. Drivers and Uncertainties 3financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 9
  12. 12. Drivers3 and UncertaintiesThe underlying forces behind trends are known as drivers. There can be multiple drivers for any given trend anda given driver can be relevant to multiple trends. It is through the identification of as many drivers as possibleand their consolidation ,based on similar themes, that a robust set of drivers emerge.Through our analysis of trends relating to the future of C2B payments, we arrived at 12 key drivers (see theAppendix for an expanded drivers to trends map.)Once the drivers were identified, they were evaluated on their degree of uncertainty and impact on C2Bpayments, using a scale of low, medium and high (L, M, H):Driver Uncertainty ImpactMergers & acquisitions H HFinancial services structure H HDesire for government control H HGlobalization M HInstant gratification L HInnovation (for efficiency) L HDemand for security (confidence) L HNetwork access L HAccess to credit L MCost of Living L LSocial pressure L LDesire for more knowledge L Lfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 10
  13. 13. Drivers and Uncertainties 3Drivers with high uncertainty and importance emerged. Once identified, we articulated what critical uncertaintiesto consider (factors with the highest impact and highest uncertainty). These critical uncertainties were then setat the axes for our future scenarios development tool: the 2x2 matrix.In this case, the critical uncertainties were the role of high versus low governance, bisected with the centralizedconcentration versus fragmentation of financial services. The full list of drivers were then applied across the 2x2matrix and assigned a value of influence in each quadrant.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 11
  14. 14. Scenarios 4financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 12
  15. 15. 4 Scenarios“Thinking through [scenario]stories, and talking in depth abouttheir implications, brings eachperson’s unspoken assumptionsabout the future to the surface.Scenarios are thus the mostpowerful vehicles I know forchallenging our ‘mental models’about the world and lifting the‘blinders’ that limit our creativityand resourcefulness.”— Peter SchwartzThe Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future inan Uncertain Worldfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 13
  16. 16. Scenarios 4financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 14
  17. 17. Scenarios 4United States of AppleHigh GovernanceCentralized Financial ServicesIn 2015, Apple bailed out the U.S. government anderadicated their debt load. Their help had comejust in the nick of time. Both the government andmajor banks were facing bankruptcy. Incidents ofsocial upraising, violence and chaos were on therise. It seemed like a civil war was inevitable. Apple’shelp had come at a price. Today, 2021, Apple nowowned majority shares in the U.S. government (nowa publicly-traded company) and in all three remainingfinancial institutions.The internet is alive and well but for reasons ofnational security, iHomeland instituted a policy that his aging parents, divorced sister and teenage niece.all financial transactions and government-related This job had saved his life. He was retrained by hisinformation reside on one single proprietary, secure new employer, paid a good salary and even given anetwork. The iMe, a paper-thin, malleable personal mortgage for his new condo. Life was good! Whencommunication device, is introduced to access this the iMe was first introduced, American citizens oftensecure network for all transactions and is offered at carried two personal communication mobile devices.no-charge to all Americans. The device’s hardware In time, their trust in the government returned, theyand access to the network was subsidized by the adopted the tools and features the device offeredApple government and taxpayer money. The model and, in an attempt to save money, the majority keptis similar to the old cellphone model whereby the the iMe and got rid of their old smartphone. Paperhardware was free, but the service and transactions currency still abounded but its popularity quicklycame at a small cost. This pay-per- transaction declined.and service model was designed to act much like Eric walked into the voice-command elevator andthe HST, as a payback system to repay Apple’s asked to be brought down to the parking garage.investment. Oddly, it didn’t move so he decided to try a moreAt first, Americans cried foul. They believed that this manual approach. He grabbed his iME out of iswas the beginning of George Orwell’s 1984: the pocket and was greeted with the device’s customarycontrol and influence of an oligopoly. But the reverse smiling face. He tapped the screen and the firsthappened, peace and prosperity returned to the page of the app’s icons appeared. He touched theland of milk and honey. The job market exploded magnifying glass (which reminded him of his oldespecially at Apple. Eric, 43, had been unemployed Android phone — may Google rest in peace). Hefor over two years and was forced to move in with typed an “E” and an “L” in the text box and thefinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 15
  18. 18. Scenarios 4United States of Apple [2]elevator icon appeared. He tapped it but for some get to the bottom of this, he contacted a colleaguereason it just wouldn’t launch. He slid his hand over at iNews to discuss. Instead of communicating overthe elevator’s side panel, which activated the manual a device, she asked to meet Eric at their favouritedisplay. He pressed “P” for parking, the doors closed café. Security is very tight in this new world, andand the elevator started to move. monitoring the networks is now commonplace. Eric got into his iCar to drive away, but just like theHe was quite bothered because his daily navigation elevator, it wouldn’t start so he opted to take theof the world and routines were dependent on new iTrain instead. He tried to use his iMe to seesynchronicity between voice-command, facial when the next train would arrive but his device wasrecognition and his iMe device. This was not normal once again not working properly or connecting to thebehavior and he was concerned about what was network.happening. Was this a result of his discoveries thismorning? Was he being shut out of the system as a He asked those around him if they were experiencingresult? His heart raced; surely, he was wrong. similar problems with their devices. The man beside him unplugged the earbuds from his own deviceWhen he walked into the office that morning, he to let Eric know that the network was working fornoticed fluctuations in the iCloud. He tried to stabilize him. The woman beside him confirmed the same.them using his iPad but nothing seemed to work. As the train arrived, he tried to pay the fare with hisHe made his way to the server farm and found the iME but his device had gone blank! He made hisdefective box. He tried to connect wirelessly but way to the nearest iTM and placed his finger onno luck. So he pulled out a cable the diameter of a the display for a quick fingerprint scan. The virtualstring and magnetically connected it from his tablet assistant said: “We’re sorry, this fingerprint does notto the box. match any accounts on the iCloud.Please visit ourHe found a collection of fragmented files and as nearest booth at the mall to speak to a customerhe tried to clean them, a string of text appeared. It service representative.” The train arrived. “I’m sorry,”seemed to be financial transactions for extremely said the iTrain attendant. “You can’t board withoutlarge sums. He was about to close the file when paying.” He had no money, no proof of identity, noa name caught his eye. Why did that name sound communication tool, and he was stranded an hourso familiar? Through his search concierge service away from the city, with no ability to pay through thehe conducted a quick iWeb scan. It revealed that only system that existed for him.the names on the screen were U.N. ambassadors What was he going to do?that favoured the integration of corporations withinthe United Nations. Then it dawned on him thatperhaps Apple was trying to buy their way into theU.N. It made sense, as it would be an incrediblyaggressive but strategic move to protect the U.S.from the increasing dominance of Eurasia, whilesupporting Apple’s own growth demands. To helpfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 16
  19. 19. Scenarios 4United States of Apple [3]Primary DriversGlobalization Detailed Driver PlacementTo amalgamate through acquisitions in order toremain internationally profitable, productive andcompetitive.SecurityTo protect both personal and financial informationagainst fraud, theft or personal harm.Network AccessTo provide ubiquitous communication and paymentaccess across the United States. Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral drivers within 2x2 matrix. The United States of Apple quadrant is governed by High Governance (y-axis) and Centralized Financial Services (x-axis).financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 17
  20. 20. Scenarios 4Rise of the BrandHigh governanceDe-centralized Financial ServicesThe year is 2022 and the multinational corporationshave globalized the world, permeating all cornersof the earth through branded networks. Some aresingle, massive global brands, others are families ofaffiliated brands. Branded experiences have becomeso fluid that geographical borders are now irrelevant.The only discernable borders are those wherefamilies of brands have several affiliates dispersedacross different regions.Each brand offers its own loyalty program, cateringto the diverse lifestyles and financial constraintsin the marketplace, where the cost of living has If she were at Starbucks, things would have beenbecome a heavy influencer of consumer decisions. different. That is a brand that provides customersThe obsession with security, network access and with a seamless experience across all marketsconnectivity has led to an obsolescence of personal because of its strength and influence. Life wasprivacy. “Thank you for flying with Virgin. Please easier when she was aligned with Starbucks. Herenjoy your stay in Hong Kong,” was broadcast over tall refresh with honey or even a tall chai latte couldthe speaker system. Leaving the plane, Jen made be enjoyed anywhere, anytime in Toronto or hereher way to the first tea shop that had a personalized in Hong Kong. Such is the life of a PhD studentad directed at her “Jen, come on over to have your attending a design conference on a budget. At leastfavourite tea, just the way you like it in Toronto.” Fresh Express is mindful enough to provide service in English, knowing that she was from Canada. She“Welcome to Fresh Express, Jen. We’re happy to had also opted into the “defaults” program to getserve you today as a Tim Horton’s affiliate. Would the best in personalized service, though these days,you like to have a medium mint tea with three sugars brands made it pretty hard to opt out of that. Privacytoday? It’s just like your usual at Tim’s,” said the was a thing of the past, it was 2021 after all.holographic server. She agreed to the tea. However,the drink she received, while it tasted the same, Only a few years ago, Starbucks had tried to offerwas in a different cup than she was accustomed her a hotly sought-after Level 2 Elite status in anto and the portion was smaller. Brand and product attempt to retain her in their program. As much asconsistency was pretty close, but not exact. She she had wanted to stay, going back to school meantfigured it had to do with portions being smaller in she simply couldn’t pass up the value promotionAsia and local culture still having a minor influence on offered by Tim Hortons at the time. Free Tim’s pointsbrands. every week was too good an offer. It had been a six- month process to enroll in the Starbucks program,financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 18
  21. 21. Scenarios 4Rise of the Brand [2]complete with credit checks after referrals from five “Verification Laboratory.” She was welcomed at thefriends. laboratory and asked for a retinal scan, a fingerprint and a DNA extraction. All of which were verified andSadly, it was beyond her means, so she arduously aligned to the information already in their databases.completed the Starbucks exit paperwork and signed Then Jen was asked to place her mobile identity andup with Tim’s with the wave of her phone over an payment device on the charging and syncing station.identity-scanning terminal. For more sought-afterbrands, you had to demonstrate your loyalty. She Fumbling for her mobile with the cup of tea still inhad considered joining the Loblaws program, with all hand, Jen pulled it out of her pocket and placed itits grocery perks, stylish clothing line and numerous on the screen with a red exclamation mark, face upbanking outlets, but it was a close second choice on the station. The progress bar inched all the waysince Tim’s was known for its robust global affiliates to 100% verified and now displayed a large greenprogram. checkmark.“Jen, your tea is ready, hot and fresh. Thanks for Her identity and connection to the device hasvisiting Fresh Express. Your payment has been been restored and now all of her core and affiliatereceived over the air.” programs were refreshing and updating. Normally, at this point she would be released as it was just aSipping on her minty beverage, she conceded that synching system failure that can sometimes occurlife with Tim Hortons wasn’t so shabby after all. It when travelling. But this time, it was a synching errorwas Tim Hortons points that flew her across the caused by a security breach and personnel were onPacific to Hong Kong via their affiliate arrangement site intercepting the identity thief.with Virgin. The network was not nearly as globallyrecognized as Starbucks, of course, which had Jen peered through the one-way glass into the storelounges at every major airport and express service and saw that a woman was being interrogated withvia biometric scans. her mobile phone in hand, bright yellow exclamation mark hologram projections flashed from the device.Tim Hortons offered bare bones identity device Her phone was confiscated and she was arrestedverifications. Their network systems definitely weren’t and a criminal GPS chip band was strapped to heras elegant, but they were sufficient. Virgin also ankle.had the best reputation for wireless networks forinternational travel, ideal for all the conference travel The woman was the stewardess who had givenJen had been doing recently. Jen an extra blanket on the flight. It must have been the blanket that had swiped her identity during theAs Jen walked out of the café, an alarm sounded. flight. It was the second identity compromise she“BEEEEEEEEEEP! Jen, your account has been had encountered this week. In this world, thesecompromised and deactivated. Please proceed to incidents were not uncommon, though somethe Fresh Express Identity and Banking Information brands’ programs were better than others, but theVerification Lab immediately.” Startled, Jen walked convenience of fewer identity breaches came at aover to a hallway marked with a sign that read price only the elite could afford.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 19
  22. 22. Scenarios 4Rise of the Brand [3]Primary DriversGlobalization Detailed Driver PlacementGrowth in multi-national mergers, acquisitions,strategic partnerships among brands.Cost of livingThe disparity between salary and cost of livingdictates what one can afford, despite the aspirationto keep up with the Jones.Network accessReliance on technology to support instantgratification and seamless connectivity to complexnetworks.SecurityThe need for trust in a complex network wherepersonal information is continually shared andtransmitted. Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Rise of the Brand quadrant is governed by High Governance (y-axis) and De-centralized Financial Services (x-axis).financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 20
  23. 23. Scenarios 4Multiple Choice WorldLow governanceDe-centralized Financial ServicesIt is June 2022 in a world of hyper-connectivity andmultiple choice. 6G networks are the norm with over125% penetration of hand-held, pocket-friendlydevices. The networks for information exchangeare built and maintained through open-sourceframeworks that are championed and built on thedirection of spirited socially-networked communities.Network access has become a human right andsocial networks have become more of an identifierthan geographic boundaries.Personal identities are now formed almost exclusivelyon these social networks. The once- powerfultelcos have restructured and are no longer sources are the new brands. The previously big product andof domination; their role is to support community- service brands now rely on exchanging their goodssanctioned initiatives. The more effective their service through these highly connected people. Theseis to the network infrastructure, the more they get digital networks are the new broadcast mediumsto continue providing the service. It is a world of and people, through their social networks, are newabundance but one where balanced reciprocity is the channels of communication and distribution.emerging norm. Fewer regulations, coupled with decentralizingThe U.S. banks never fully recovered from the 2008 across all commercial and social networks, has giveneconomic downturn, rendering government-backed rise to a culture of rapid-cycling innovation, with acredit difficult to come upon. The quest for credit heavy reliance on instant gratification. New networksis no longer as important as it once was. Not only are coming into existence on a daily basis andhas there been a shift in accumulating assets to each network is dependent on other networks —sharing assets, but for those who need credit there everything is integrated. What was once six degreesare now multiple sources of access fragmented of separation is now closer to four degrees.across networks. People can ask for funding-likesupport from an aggregate of angel investors. It is It is in this mesh-networked world that we meetmicro-lending on a broader scale through mutually- Jessica, originally from Chile. She had recentlybeneficial initiatives. applied to be invited into the San Francisco area network to facilitate a physical move to the region.In this socially-networked world, there has been a There is a concentration of rapidly adopted socialrise in the power of individuals as brands. These networks being established in San Francisco.Jamie Oliver-esque types reign supreme. Influencersfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 21
  24. 24. Scenarios 4Multiple Choice World [2]She can access them from Chile, but she would like about her day-to-day social equity building andto be physically closer to that kind of innovation. bartering. Unfortunately, her telco account getsMany interactions are done over the network, but hacked and sends fake transaction requests toface-to-face meetings are still of value as they have her entire network. She inavertedly orders threesignificant influencing power over networking. pairs of shoes, four rugs and three dozen bottles of champagne. All of the orders are promptly filled,Jessica’s application to the San Fran network was only for the network to find that she didn’t orderrecognized by another member who knew her from them and doesn’t have the means to pay for them.a Chilean network. This individual advocated on her As a result, her network is unhappy with her and herbehalf by giving her a high-rating social score. In this social equity drops because of the security breach.world, the types of social networks you are part of She is immediately boxed out from several networksand your rating on them is the new form of currency. and only a few connections remained, but they wereOn Jessica’s first day in San Francisco, she looked weak. She had to rebuild her social currency in orderup accommodation on a craigslist-like social bulletin to be able to facilitate even basic daily transactionsboard on her tablet. for housing and food.She scanned the listings and selected a short-term Akin to the crash in 2008, like those American’s thatapartment lease based on peer-reviews. She paid were left very little to build on, Jessica finds herselffor it with social currency points she had racked in that same situation. She now has to innovateup on a Chilean network and converted them to to survive by building new connections and equity‘accepted everywhere’ currency points. Because within them, or look to create a whole new way toshe paid up front, she received a few ‘community survive in the network. It is only through innovativelypoints’ from the apartment complex. This transaction rebuilding connections and validated social equitywas all facilitated through a multi-point tracking and that she will be able to transact for goods andconversion software. services.While staying at the apartment, Jessica contributedcoding and tech support to the apartment complex.In return, she received more ‘community points’that she could apply to extending her stay at adiscounted rate. There are typically exchanges ofcurrency for services; this is no different than it was in2012. The only difference is that the currencies rangefrom points that can be exchanged ubiquitouslyor exclusively through select channels. Thegovernment-issued currency is completely devaluedin the rise of fragmented currency systems.Getting comfortable with exchanging contacts andservices through social networking, Jessica goesfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 22
  25. 25. Scenarios 4Multiple Choice World [3]Primary DriversNetwork Access Detailed Driver PlacementThe entire system is dependent on connections inorder to build personal status and equity.SecurityIn a very open source embracing system, keepingpersonal information secure is paramount.InnovationA pursuit to build on or create new networks, alongwith new approaches to maintaining and extendingthe connections.Desire For KnowledgeThe only way to gain further personal status isthrough multiple connections and developingmeaningful relevant connections.Instant Gratification Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutralThe connections are so numerous and vast, needs drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Multiple Choice World quadrant is governed by Low Governance (y-axis) and De-centralizedcan be met quickly through these networks. Financial Services (x-axis).financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 23
  26. 26. Scenarios 4Powered by GoogleLow governanceCentralized Financial ServicesIn 2022, this techno-political world sees a newfrontier concentrated around the exchange ofinformation, centrally controlled by Google. Thegovernment takes a hands-off approach, choosing tooperate through corporate entities.Google has become the infrastructure that underliesthe majority of products. “Powered by” has cachewith consumers and Google has extended itsinformation-gathering capabilities to monitorbehaviour, cross-referenced with socio-cultural andpredictive modeling.Google has infiltrated the fabric of society, amassinginformation on such a scale that it has eclipsedgovernment through shear size, depth, interpretation need of a new car. After an extensive, integratedand analysis of trends, determination of cultural wired search, he has come to the conclusion theemergence and economic indicators. Google is the desired car may not be attainable based his financialone-stop, go to place; it fosters a feeling of trust, situation, credit score and socio-behavioural index.reliability and fairness. This is a common occurrence in this world as highlyRichard resides in Texas, a protectionist republic integrated indices pre-determine consumer accesshaven within the United States. After the tumultuous to products. This has given rise to a “credit-fixing”events of the past decade, western economies industry, where brokers provide services to mask ahave restructured, seeing the benefits of centralized person’s credit score and other indices.control over information and delivery of service. The government has turned a blind eye to thisGovernment has bowed to market pressures. practice as the result stimulates economic growth.The result is a more deregulated society, where the Many brokers use unscrupulous methods to achievefree market and global aspirations have replaced the the desired result, a methodology with grey ethicalconservatism that rose in the decade following the boundaries. Richard visits one of the less reputableeconomic collapse of 2008. It has a more entrenched agencies to “hack” his scores, guaranteeing afeeling of the Wild West of old. Independence, self- positive result, yet leaving possible legal ramificationsreliance and a moderate disregard for rules and if he is caught. The broker charges an extremely highregulations permeate. rate for the practice as there is high-risk involved and consequences if caught.Classically middle-class, Richard finds himself infinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 24
  27. 27. Scenarios 4Powered by Google [2]Google’s network extends into the consumer world decides that legal action isn’t warranted and Richardprimarily through an affiliate program, designed leaves without incident.to give agencies access to information in order to Frustrated that his expensive fix has not providedanticipate a customer’s preference and purchase what he wishes, Richard visits a Google affiliatebehavior, as well as helping to mitigate risk. This is with a bronze service level that does not employa scaled service where a platinum level provides the rigorous information scanning that the previousaccess to analytic tools, predictive modeling, business has conducted. Their data searching andforecasting, behavioural analysis, health and wellness analysis techniques are not intensive and they seeindicators, and, of course, buying tendencies. Richard as a valid customer, based on the dataWhereas lower service levels do not allow businesses provided. The salesperson shows Richard the car hethe full range of available information. desires and they proceed to sign the paperwork.Richard’s first attempt to buy his desired car seeshim enter a “platinum-service-level” car dealership,part of the five-star affiliate program with Google.They have a behavioral analyst on staff to help thebusiness manage potential clients and also predictthe client’s ability to make good on the credit that isprovided through the purchase.As the client enters the store, a complete scan isconducted, with retinal and DNA analysis to ensureauthenticity. Richard’s search behavior and productselection tendencies are provided to the businessand they narrow the product offer prior to Richardentering the store or interacting with a sales staff.The behavioral analyst notices a discrepancy withRichard’s rating because it is incongruous with hisbehavior and purchase patterns.There is a problem here, but because of Richard’ssolid credit score fix, the behavioral analyst needsto go deeper into Google’s central knowledgewarehouse to conduct a “deep dive” into Richard’sbackground.Upon scrutiny, the analyst concludes that Richardhas indeed fixed his scores and the product offeris immediately scaled down to what is affordable,reducing the risk for the business. The businessfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 25
  28. 28. Scenarios 4Powered by Google [3]Primary DriversNetwork Access Detailed Driver PlacementNetwork integration is high, always active andcollecting data. The infrastructure to manage thecontinual uptime is new, bio-technical, robust, fluid,redundant and flexible. Customers rely on this abilityto search and get product recommendations.SecurityMaintaining personal and business privacy hasforced massive investment into infrastructure,monitoring and integrity-checking. Google providesa system that is redundant, with multiple verificationprocedures that are proprietary and a proven trackrecord, so much so that the only threat comes fromwithin the organization itself.Access to CreditCredit is a driver as employment is skewed to thehigh and low ends of social class. Because there Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutralis high importance given to independence, credit drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Powered by Google quadrant isis used more to satisfy need rather than status, governed by Low Governance (y-axis) and Centralized Financial Services (x-axis).purchases just because.InnovationA key phenomenon in this world, innovationpermeates into both legitimate and quasi-legalareas. Credit-fixing requires brokers to be continuallyadjusting their methods to provide an appropriatecredit mask for clients. The brokers attract some ofthe best and brightest due to the industry’s highlylucrative nature.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 26
  29. 29. Scenarios 4Signposts for Monitoring Efforts Going ForwardA signpost is a signal or indicator that a given scenario may be unfolding. For example, three years from now, ifthere are radical changes to anti-trust laws, it might indicate that a potential future similar to the United States ofApple may emerge. Here are some signposts we identified to help monitor possible futures characterized by ourfour scenarios:United States of Apple Rise of the Brand• Another massive economic crash with limited recov- • Increase in multi-service companies like Virgin, ery results in a big bail-out by an individual entity or Walmart, Costco (e.g. finances, insurance, health care) corporation • Increase in multi-company buyouts and alliances, i.e.• Single ownership of combined financial and communi- Nike and Apple buy AT&T cation networks • Growth in global alliance networks (e.g. Star Alliance,• Exclusive relationship between one entity and the etc.) government • Growth in lifestyle brands (Virgin, Starbucks) combining• Increase in multi-service companies under a single products and services massive, dominating and influential brand, i.e. Rogers, • Increased investment and adoption of loyalty programs Walmart, etc. resulting in increased purchases being made with• Deregulation of monopolies and radical changes to points rather than dollars and an increase in the buying antitrust laws power of points• Changes in laws around political party funding that en- • Increased brand ubiquity able larger donations by corporations• Reduction in the role of government• Increase in corporations as government facilitator/ven- dors of choice, i.e. Monsanto in IraqPowered by Google Multiple Choice World• Information aggregators partnering with other brands • Breakdown of leadership structures to develop and manufacture products and services, i.e. • Occupy Movement’s 99% wins Ford and Google create self-driving cars • Increased number of multiple large-scale bankruptcies• Information aggregators become angel investors • Mass boycotting of large corporations• Information aggregators enjoy special exceptions • No money flow and tighter credit regulation to privacy laws to collect and manage information, • National currency loses value i.e.Google does national census work • Increase in civil engagement• Mergers for sake of information gathering • Increase in local governmental control and impact• Decline of small information data warehouses. • Return to bartering as transaction method• Integration of public and private information in a cen- • Mesh networks and micro-lending rise in popularity tralized location (in the cloud, etc.) • Social responsibility and personal reputation increase in value • Fewer intermediaries, increase in peer-to-peer initia- tivesfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 27
  30. 30. Strategic Options 5financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 28
  31. 31. 5 Strategic OptionsSurfacing and Creating Options Clarifying and ClusteringTaking into consideration the scenarios and the Optionsstakeholders, each member of the team brain-stormed a list of strategic themes inspired by their Each option was clarified by the author, then collec-scenario. tively rewritten and combined and the list of about 30 options were classified into one of 10 categories:The options were then aggregated and shared withinthe group. Some of these options included: a. Legal b. Loyalty programs• Invest in biometric identification technology (e.g. c. Identification retinal scan, fingerprints, etc.) for various touch- d. Tools at point of sale points including ATMs (original thought was e. Network infrastructure “include scanning capabilities in ATM”) f. Security• Extend knowledge/information tied to identifica- g. Privacy tion to include psychological and behavioural h. Social reputation characteristics i. Services• Explore expanded partnerships with alternative j. Strategic partnerships loyalty partners• Develop techniques to identify fraudulent activi- ties and mitigate riskfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 29
  32. 32. Strategic Options 5Refining Strategic Options Enhance Customer ExperienceUpon further review, it became apparent that our Our stakeholder could invest in enhancing theoptions list contained both strategic and tactical customer experience through service design. Thisoptions. The team flagged the options that were would include looking at the brand touchpointsstrategic in nature and by using the ‘5 Whys Tool,’ along the customer decision-making process, inthey were able to widen their lens and uncover addition to mapping out how they engage withthe strategy behind tactical options. For example, banks directly through various channels andthe strategy behind the tactical option, “Introduce products.barcode, QR code or RFID scanning technologyinfrastructure to allow for self-serve, over-the- Cultivate Community Among Customersair payments by consumers” became, “Improve Our stakeholder could enhance their socialcustomer convenience and experience through capital in its customers’ communities by offeringemerging technologies.” After considering tactical programs or initiatives that strengthen and enrichversus strategic options, the team arrived at a list of those communities and the associations theyeight options. have with the bank (e.g. ranging from recognizing that micro-lending is emerging and developingA final round of refinement led to a list of five key complimentary services for the community tostrategic options, intentionally broad and general in sponsorship of local initiatives).nature, with specific strategic direction, to provideour fictitious stakeholder with the opportunity to Acquire and Retain Consumersgenerate actionable tactics aligned with companygoals and aspirations. Our stakeholder could focus efforts on attractingFive Key Strategic Options consumers and maintaining their loyalty of existing customers (e.g. they could look to product innovation as a means of attracting customers or to discounting/added value in the form of special offers).Form Strategic Partnerships and/orAcquire Businesses Invest in Technology Infrastructure Our stakeholder could invest in developing Our stakeholder could potentially form strategic technological networks of their own and investing partnerships or alliances with complementary additional transaction services (e.g. a wireless entities and/or acquire businesses that could services network). reinforce a competitive advantage in the marketplace (e.g. consider partnering with Google to offer mobile payments via bank accounts linked with Google Wallet or acquire a foreign bank in which our stakeholder does not yet have presence).financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 30
  33. 33. Strategic Options 5Evaluating Strategic Options Via Wind TunnelingWind Tunneling is a process by which the strategic options (what is most important for the success of thestakeholder) are evaluated for their role and presence in each of the scenarios. This serves to identify areas ofimplication and potential action based on organization priorities.Because of the inherent variation between scenarios, the team felt that the Option/Scenario Matrix (a.k.a. WindTunneling) was the most effective tool for assessing the impact and validity of each option in each scenario. Inorder to keep methods of evaluation of the final dossier consistent with the ‘driver’ evaluation, the team optedto adopt the Primary, Secondary and Neutral importance scale used to measure the trends, instead of thetraditional High, Medium, Low, Neutral wind tunneling measurement scale. The final evaluation of the options isshown below: United States Rise of the Powered Multiple ChoiceStrategic Option of Apple Brand by Google WorldForm Strategic Partnerships and/or P P P PAcquire BusinessesEnhance Customer Experience S P P PCultivate Community Among Customers N P N PAcquire and Retain Consumers N P S PInvest in Technology Infrastructure N P P Pfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 31
  34. 34. Strategic Options 5Wind Tunneling Implications by ScenarioUnited States of Apple Role of CommunityRemaining competitive and profitable in this scenario N – Neutralwill prove highly challenging. The network’s governing Since network access to bank services arebody will determine the level of customization highly governed and centralized, the voice of thepermitted. Existing bank products and services community is silenced. Heavy lobbying is requiredwill need to be redesigned to meet any and all in order to sway the policymakers’ decisions. Thererequirements imposed by this new regime. is; however, the possibility of creating and leveraging community locally at the branch level throughStrategic Business Partnerships customer appreciation days and/or town halls.P – Primary Acquire and Retain ConsumersIn order to survive in this world, strategic businesspartnerships need to be created and maintained N – Neutralat the government level and with agencies or Consumer acquisition and retention is determinedmanufacturers who are able to build or provide by the number of users in the network. This levelancillary products and services. increases and drops along with birth and death levels. Banks will need to find innovative methodsCustomer Experience to promote and differentiate within the network’sS – Secondary constraint. They could, for example, create peripheral services.The bank can no longer rely on technology todifferentiate itself in the marketplace. A distinct Technology Infrastructurecustomer’s experience could continue to be achievedin-person at the various bank branches, through N – Neutralvisual identity and in the level and quality of service In this monopoly, access and use of the networkoffered. is tightly controlled. External software developers requiring access to this secure network and publishing rights on the proprietary mobile devices must adhere to high standards and strict protocols. Ongoing training will be required for the bank’s executive and legal teams, customer service representatives, bank tellers and IT staff. Potentially, new software and hardware will need to be purchased.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 32
  35. 35. Strategic Options 5Rise of the Brand Customer Experience P – PrimaryThis is a highly competitive market where alliancesbetween brands are paramount in order to secure With so many options available to consumers incustomer loyalty. There will be significant innovations this world, it will be challenging to acquire newaround service design and transaction facilitation customers and difficult to retain them. In this world, ain order to deliver the personalized service and competitive advantage can be achieved by adoptingexperiences that are aligned with brand delivery a client-focused approach to service delivery, byexpectations. using social status as a means to position the bank in the marketplace, by adopting new technologiesStrategic Business Partnerships that address consumer demands.P – Primary Customers will be driven by convenience and lifestyle, making payments however, wherever andStrategic partnerships will be vital to survival in this whenever they choose. Consumers will demand thatworld. Building brand recognition and aligning with payments be a seamless and a positive experience;brands that have complementary values will be for example, no more waiting in line at the cashimportant to convey a unified image to customers register.and attract continued loyalty. Business partnershipswill be much more important than governmental Acquire and Retain Consumersaffiliations in this world, and international reach will beimportant whether through strategic acquisitions or P – Primaryaffiliation agreements. Traditional acquisition tools are still in place:Some of the approaches to forming strategic sampling, introductory offers, advertising and loyaltypartnerships or acquisitions our stakeholder could points. New programs and tactics will emergetake, are to look at companies that traditionally were that offer highly personalized offers with rewards/not in the customer-to-business payment space, but currencies unique to the brand in order to attract andare increasingly moving to innovate in this space. retain customers.For example, if Amazon were to begin offering Being brand loyal will be ultimately more costfinancial services, our stakeholder could consider effective when amortized across a lifetime anda partnership or acquisition to maintain profitability, lifestyle because there will be inherent added valuepresence and influence in the consumer to business rewards for consistent usage of the brand acrosspayment sphere. categories. This aligns to a compelling retentionAnother path would be to acquire or build exclusive approach.partnerships with complementary brands in the No-name brands could become new luxury or rebelsame sector, but in geographical regions where brands for those who can afford to shop outside of athere is little reach within our stakeholder’s existing brand loyalty program. There could be a luxury brandnetwork (e.g. offering a full range of services to counter-counter with a rise of no-name among earlya foreign bank’s customer base in exchange for adopters and the wealthy. This could lead to somesimilar reciprocal privileges for the stakeholder’s customer erosion if there is limited differentiation orconsumers). innovation within a given brand or product set.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 33
  36. 36. Strategic Options 5Rise of the Brand [2]Technology InfrastructureP – PrimaryThe technology employed in the delivery of serviceswill offer opportunities to differentiate a brand,establish a competitive advantage and build brandequity. Access to consumer information will beexclusive to brand networks with which consumersare affiliated and will be secured on proprietarynetworks.Investment in technology infrastructure may beextensive due to the competitive landscape. Broadnetwork penetration requires management ofmultiple protocols and standards, while adhering tostrict security requirements to maintain the integrityof each brand affiliation and not breach disclosureassurances.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 34
  37. 37. Strategic Options 5Multiple Choice World built on accessibility and convenience. Any service based industry will need to ensure they have theMultiple Choice World is a unregulated world where infrastructure and points of distribution to facilitatea diverse customer based is segmented into a and deliver on that expectation. Consumers in thisnumber of networks, each with their own protocols capacity control the exchange and the transaction.and standards. Social capital is an important There is no longer the need for an intermediary toconsideration for innovation given that information facilitate the exchange. The servicing will be in theis valued as both a commodity and delivery of ability to provide access to networks and to toolspayment. In this world, currencies are fragmented that align to customer need.and social capital is a sign of equity and resources.As a result, communities are tight-knit and individual Role of Communityconsumers can hold a range of influence on otherconsumers. Payment is done through social P – Primarynetworks and is more akin to barter than to an This world is reliant on the depth and breadth ofexchange of standard currency. There is no financial the community. Each network is a community untoinstitution competition in regards to payment and itself whereby transactions are facilitated throughloans but there might be one for barter facilitation. exchange between members. With a fragmented currency system there is limited opportunity forStrategic Business Partnerships individual credit ratings, the only validation an individual has in this world is their own reputation.P – Primary This is a new form of social equity that is evaluatedOur stakeholder may be able to thrive in this by members of the community with whom therecontext by offering services partnerships with has been a relationship or exchange. The collectivelocalized entities in order to ensure market community replaces any government entities andpenetration, community by community. Building through the expansive network of people more of thestrong relationships and partnerships with influential community becomes connected shrinking what wascommunity members will also be a promising commonly considered 6 degrees of separation isapproach. To address fragmentation of currencies, now 4 degrees. The opportunity for our stakeholderour stakeholder could also position itself as a leading to be transparent and easily understood, this wouldbroker of multiple currencies, similar to a foreign enhance approachability, which would lead toexchange brokerage to facilitate the fluidity of understanding and greater acceptance within thetransacting in multiple currencies. community.Customer Experience Acquire and Retain ConsumersP – Primary P – PrimaryIn this world, a competitive advantage could be Loyalty is extremely fragile in this world as a result ofachieved by redesigning bank products and services the multiple opportunities for affiliations. Acquisitionin order to help fulfill, alleviate, accelerate, or improve is easy because there is a low-barrier of commitmentexchanges between individuals. This is a world and is facilitated by word of mouth. Retention is maintained because of of the social status of whofinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 35
  38. 38. Strategic Options 5Multiple Choice World [2]is part of the network. Because information is botha commodity and delivery of payment across thenetwork it will be important to understand howto leverage the information to build a network andconnectivity with a customer base. There is a also ahigh demand for customization; this will necessitatethe development of consolidated one-touch bankingproducts that can be used across a mesh networkor that have hackable/open source capabilities withflexible usage and fee structures.Technology InfrastructureP – PrimaryAs networks are diverse and unregulated, thereforeadoption of standards and protocols are difficultto manage as strict adherence. Technologyinfrastructure has both conventional componentsand innovative, non-traditional approaches toconnectivity. Social identity is key in this world,providing a means of access and capital dependingon network style. Approval into a given network mayrequire extensive resources including administration,processing and verification procedures. The needto safeguard personal infomation is in conflict withthe role of social capital. Managing the flow ofpersonal information in a public domain along withmonitoring the values of multiple curriences willrequire significant investments. The opportunityis to develop services tied to customer behaviourand social capital remain attractive options forcompetitive advantage in this landscape.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 36
  39. 39. Strategic Options 5Powered by Google Role of Community N – NeutralIn this future, the government has taken a hands-off approach to regulation and compliance. Their Google has infiltrated the fabric of society, amassinggrowth in a grey market provides legitimate but information on such a scale that it eclipsedillegal services, such as credit fixing. Google government through sheer size, depth, interpretationis the key stakeholder and major provider of and analysis of trends, determination of culturalinformation, services and prestige. Alignment with emergence and economic indicators. CommunityGoogle is critical to ensure long-term sustainability. is tied tightly to what information Google wishesStrategic partnership is a primary focus as well as to capture and for that reason, tends to promotetechnological investment to develop onto Google’s connection between people. For the business,platform. The institution must be flexible in their accessing that information as a competitiveservice offerings, while mitigating risk and ultimately advantage is possible, but is still reliant on accessdifferentiating themselves in the marketplace through privileges to Google’s infrastructureinnovation. Acquire and Retain ConsumersStrategic Business Partnerships S – SecondaryP – Primary Consumer acquisition and retention is driven byPartnerships remain confined to an affiliation service offering and the ability of a business to offerstructure with Google. The level of investment not only the best deal, but possibly be flexible onor priority determines the access level within the a customer’s ability to access credit. As a financialGoogle sphere, providing access to diagnostic and institution, up-to-the-minute trend analysis andbehavioural analysis. Other associations are possible determining a customer’s profitability based onand there is an ability to extend market reach by up- spending habits and risk mitigation are necessary inselling with an association that will share risk. order to remain viable.Customer Experience Technology InfrastructureP – Primary P – PrimaryTechnology plays a key role in differentiation with Google drives major stakeholder interests and theother competitors. Investment can be related directly level of access to consumer data. Business affiliationwithin the realm of Google itself, or through the within the Google network provides both marketextension of Google’s developer base, allowing a penetration and risk mitigation. Innovation andcompany to add value on top of an existing shell. application development trends are higher due to aThis is a critical component for customer service. large developer community, generating innovativeHowever, customer loyalty is low in this world, as service options as a competitive advantage. Securitycustomers will tend to go where the can get the most is a key consideration due to low governmentalvalue for what they can afford. regulations, yet there is necessary compliance with Google’s architecture.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 37
  40. 40. Strategic Options 5Discussion of Options and Stakeholder ImplicationsFrom the options elicited and refined from our four scenarios, we turned to Kees Van der Heijden’s Scenarios,Strategy and the Strategy Process to design four customizable strategies to help the bank’s executive teamnavigate its way towards a beneficial future. United States Rise of the Powered Multiple ChoiceStrategic Option of Apple Brand by Google WorldForm Strategic Partnerships and/or P P P PAcquire BusinessesEnhance Customer Experience S P P PCultivate Community Among Customers N P N PAcquire and Retain Consumers N P S PInvest in Technology Infrastructure N P P PRobust Strategy Flexible StrategySignificant But Safer Investments A Weighted ApproachConservative in nature, the Robust Strategy A Flexible Strategy encourages substantialproposes the bank concentrates its efforts and investment in Strategic Partnerships and Customerresources on Strategic Partnerships and on Experience as well as minor investments inCustomer Experience. Since both these options Consumer Acquisitions, Technological Infrastructurerated as high importance across most scenarios, and in Cultivating Community Among Customers.they guarantee modest returns and a return on Although riskier than the Robust Strategy, thisinvestment. strategy offers the possibility of higher returns.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 38
  41. 41. Strategic Options 5Multiple Coverage Strategy Gambling StrategyA Balanced Approach High Risk, High RewardA Multiple Coverage Strategy involves equal A Gambling Strategy would encourage theinvestments in all five options. This strategy is Executive Team to invest in an option with a highsomewhat risky and more expensive because level of uncertainty (Role of Community, Consumerinvestments are made in all areas, but not weighted Acquisition and Retention and Technologybased on likelihood of occurrence. Its advantage is Infrastructure). This strategy is the riskiest, yet offersthat it ensures that all options are covered. Since the highest possible return.the amount of resources invested in each optionis modest in comparison to the Flexible Strategy, itoffers the possibility of mid to high returns that couldcover any losses incurred on any failed investments.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 39
  42. 42. Strategic Options 5Strategy Assessment ToolIn order to assess which strategy to implement, and taking into consideration Van der Heijden’s work, wecreated a matrix to help assess each strategy based on the following criteria:Financial PerformanceHow will this strategy perform financially? Does the bank have the financial resources required to implement thisstrategy?Risk Management PerformanceCan the bank mitigate the risks incurred through the implementation of this strategy?How risky is this strategy?Strategic FitHow does this option fit within existing organizational objectives?Cultural FitDoes this strategy fit with the organization’s existing values?Assessment Tool Template Risk Financial Strategy Management Strategic Fit Cultural Fit Performance Performance Robust Strategy Flexible Strategy Multiple Coverage Strategy Gambling StrategyNote: This is to be filled out by the stakeholder with a low-medium-high rankingfinancial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 40
  43. 43. Strategic Options 5Next StepsThere are no facts about the future. The scenariosand the signposts developed are to serve as a guideto help our stakeholder make informed decisionsabout how to steer their organization over the next10 years. There are no formal conclusions to bemade, only recommendations and considerationsthat will need to be evaluated based on organizationpriority and risk tolerance.What is anticipated is the migration from paper todigital transactions and currency, all facilitated bytechnological innovation that aligns with servicedesign. The shift in power and ownership, along withthe health of the economy is unpredictable at thispoint in time. It will be these broader social shiftsthat will inevitably influence and design the futureand help to place priority on any given investment.The role of this work is to shine a light on potentialfutures and to be aware of the signs that indicatesuch a transition in order to make the best decisionspossible for the success of the stakeholder.For further discussion about this foresighting exerciseor how this could be applied to any other initiativesplease reach out and continue the conversation.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 41
  44. 44. Bios 6financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 42
  45. 45. Bios 6Eric Leo Blais Jen ChowProducer (Vice-President, Digital Media) Design ResearcherPeace Point Entertainment Group NurunWith over 15 years of digital media production under Jen is passionate about people, culture and digitalhis belt, Eric Leo Blais continues to develop proven technology, striving to help brands and businessescost-effective and creative business and marketing build meaningful, valuable experiences forsolutions that leverage digital technology to promote customers. As a design research methods geek, shebrand awareness, improve customer loyalty and enjoys employing a range of techniques to uncoverretention and streamline business processes for customer insights and novel business opportunities.a wide range of industries including: information Holding the strong belief that businesses havetechnology, entertainment, automotive, health and much to benefit from human-centred and inclusivefitness and legal and human resources. Over the design, she combines her background as ayears, he has worked for multiple blue chip brands, Chartered Accountant and her graduate work inincluding Lexus, Nissan, the Toronto International strategic foresight and innovation to build compellingFilm Festival, Workopolis, Lexmark and Deloitte. strategies for a range of organizations.Most recently, Eric produced for Peace Point Jen holds Bachelor and Master degrees inEntertainment Group a series of award-winning Accounting from the University of Waterloo, withmobile software applications for iOS, BlackBerry an Option in Society, Technology, and Values.and Android devices. He’s also facilitated a number She is currently completing her Master of Designof workshops on social media for non-profit in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCADorganizations. University.Eric holds a degree in Art from the University of You can connect with Jen on a variety of channelsOttawa, a certificate in Design Management from via jenchow.ca.Ryerson University and is completing his Mastersof Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation atOCAD University.financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 43

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