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Latent extinction risk of freshwater fishes

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Presented by Julian D. Olden at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Conservation Biology (2011)

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Latent extinction risk of freshwater fishes

  1. 1. Latent Extinction Risk of Freshwater Fishes A traits-based approach to inform conservation ranking schemes Julian D. Olden University of Washington
  2. 2. Challenge Synopsis• Conservation biology is faced with a growing urgency to identify and protect species facing the greatest risk of extinction (Pimm and Jenkins 2005)• This is a challenging task, in large part, because direct estimates of extinction risk for most species are lacking (O’Grady et al. 2004)• Species’ traits provide a powerful currency of investigation that can help guide conservation efforts
  3. 3. Extinction Risk of the World’s Fishes 484 red-listed freshwater spp. 132 red-listed marine spp.* P<0.10** P<0.05*** P<0.01 Olden et al. (2007, Global Ecol. Biogeog.)
  4. 4. Species Profiling Biological and ecological traits provide a basis for species profiling, which helps: • identify species threatened by imperilment and prioritize resources toward those with the greatest need • inform conservation ranking schemes by quickening the assessment process
  5. 5. Extinction Risk for Desert Fishes• The American Southwest harbors a highly endemic fish fauna• Human pressures are particularly severe, where over 30 million people depend on water for human consumption, agriculture, hydroelectricity, and recreation• How do multiple biological traits interact to predispose desert fishes to rarity, local extirpation and global risk of extinction?
  6. 6. • Large-bodied species with delayed maturity and specialized diet exhibited higher probabilities of extirpation Synergisms among several traits increasing the susceptibility of endemic fishes to multiple stages of the extinction, from species rarity to local extirpation to global extinction Olden et al. (2008, Ecology)
  7. 7. Latent Extinction Risk• Latent extinction risk is defined as the discrepancy between a species’ current conservation status (i.e., level of imperilment) and its expected status predicted by its suite of biological and ecological traits• Species with high latent risk represent: – beacons for future research/monitoring – priorities for conservation assessments – potential contributors to future extinction debt• Given limited resources for conducting detailed species assessments, identifying trait-based indicators of extinction risk could be extremely valuable for conservation ranking schemes
  8. 8. IUCN Red List # fish species Extinct (EX) 90 Extinct in the Wild (EW) 13 Critically Endangered (CR) 278 Adequate data Endangered (EN) 232 Vulnerable (VU) 633 Evaluated Least Concern (LC) 1,262 Near Threatened (NT) 58All species Data Deficient (DD) 428 Not Evaluated (NE) 11,523
  9. 9. IUCN Red List - Challenges 37% of evaluated species are listed as threatened 80% of species have not been evaluated Substantial taxonomic bias in evaluated species 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%Cyprinidae Salmonidae Acipenseridae Not Evaluated (2,752) (164) (26) Evaluated Family (Ranked order)
  10. 10. Latent extinction risk of the World’s fishesObjective Determining latencyIdentify fish species of globalconservation concern according Predicted Riskto latent extinction risk Low HighApproach Latent Low risk Assessed Risk• Collate data on 5 biological traits (max. size, longevity, maturation size, fecundity, reproductive guild) for 14,517 freshwater species High• Develop a random forest classifier to High recovery predict IUCN Red List ranking potential according to species traits• Identify species that possess extinction-prone traits but are not currently considered threatened
  11. 11. IUCN Red List Categories Extinct (EX) Classifier development Extinct in the Wild (EW) and validation Critically Endangered (CR) Adequate data Endangered (EN) Vulnerable (VU) Evaluated Least Concern (LC) Near Threatened (NT) applicationAll species Classifier Data Deficient (DD) Not Evaluated (NE)
  12. 12. Model performance Fish species whose traits are • 75% correct classification symptomatic of extinction risk (Cohen’s κ=0.51, P<0.001) Least concern: Species with potential latent extinction risk Least concern • Priority for monitoring and re- evaluationNear threatened Near threatened: Species that are currently at-risk Data deficient • Promote to threatened status Data deficient Not evaluated • Priority for additional research 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100% Not evaluated Predicted at-risk Lower concern • Priority for species evaluation
  13. 13. Percidae - Darters Etheostoma & Percina spp. (112) Gobiidae Luciogobius albusHeptapteridae Australian lungfishPimelodella spp. (55) Neoceratodus forsteri
  14. 14. Proposed Revision to Red List Categories Extinct (EX) Extinct in the Wild (EW) Critically Endangered (CR) Adequate data Endangered (EN) Vulnerable (VU) Evaluated Least Concern (LC) Near Threatened (NT)All species Data Deficient (DD) Potential Threatened (PT) Not Evaluated (NE) Not Evaluated (NE) Lower Priority (LP)
  15. 15. Future steps …• Trait-based approaches • Species with high extinction provide an opportunity to latency should be afforded identify at-risk species and high priority for evaluation via help inform conservation single-species analysis and the ranking schemes development of additional specialist groups – Salmonid SG – Sturgeon SG – Freshwater SG
  16. 16. AcknowledgementsMark KennardKirk WinemillerFabien LeprieurEmili García-BerthouPablo TedescoWill Darwall (IUCN)Rainer Froese (FishBase)Funding:NSF, NSERC, EPA, USGS, DoD

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