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Should the U.S. Sell Nuclear Weapons and Weapons platforms to Saudi   Arabia? <ul><li>John Lacek </li></ul>
The Importance of Saudi Arabia <ul><li>Important partner in regional security </li></ul><ul><li>25% of world oil productio...
Main Saudi Concerns <ul><li>External Security Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Internal Stability </li></ul>
The Security Environment - Iran <ul><li>Shi’ite dominated government </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of Iranian influence in regi...
The Security Environment - Iraq <ul><li>Shi’ite government and growth of Shi’ite power </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of Iranian...
Internal Stability - The Economy <ul><li>Oil based economy </li></ul><ul><li>Growing unemployment and growing population <...
Internal Stability - Shi’ite Population <ul><li>Large Shi’ite minority </li></ul><ul><li>Shi’ite leaders increasingly call...
Our Options <ul><li>Option 1 - Do nothing </li></ul><ul><li>Option 2 - Sell them the bomb </li></ul><ul><li>Option 3 - Fos...
Option 1 - Do Nothing <ul><li>Most politically appetizing  </li></ul><ul><li>Will give more room for China to maneuver  </...
Option 2 - Sell the Bomb <ul><li>Allows for Saudis to check Iranian influence </li></ul><ul><li>Makes the Saudis feel more...
Option 3 - Foster GCC Development <ul><li>Foster political and military integration </li></ul><ul><li>Upgrade GCC conventi...
Why Option 3? <ul><li>Allows for a decrease in gulf rivalries within GCC </li></ul><ul><li>Allows for GCC to defend itself...
Draw Backs <ul><li>Politically hard to do </li></ul><ul><li>Rivalries in GCC run deep </li></ul><ul><li>Make Iran more mil...
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Saudi presentation

  1. 1. Should the U.S. Sell Nuclear Weapons and Weapons platforms to Saudi Arabia? <ul><li>John Lacek </li></ul>
  2. 2. The Importance of Saudi Arabia <ul><li>Important partner in regional security </li></ul><ul><li>25% of world oil production </li></ul><ul><li>Saudi oil underwrites global economic system </li></ul>
  3. 3. Main Saudi Concerns <ul><li>External Security Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Internal Stability </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Security Environment - Iran <ul><li>Shi’ite dominated government </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of Iranian influence in region and in OPEC </li></ul>
  5. 5. The Security Environment - Iraq <ul><li>Shi’ite government and growth of Shi’ite power </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of Iranian influence </li></ul><ul><li>Unprotected border with Iraq </li></ul>
  6. 6. Internal Stability - The Economy <ul><li>Oil based economy </li></ul><ul><li>Growing unemployment and growing population </li></ul><ul><li>Per capita income of $22,589 in 1980 vs $4,564 in 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Economic liberalization </li></ul>
  7. 7. Internal Stability - Shi’ite Population <ul><li>Large Shi’ite minority </li></ul><ul><li>Shi’ite leaders increasingly calling for political reform </li></ul><ul><li>Al Qaeda infrastructure in country </li></ul><ul><li>Solidarity among Iraqi, Iranian, and Saudi Shi’ites </li></ul>
  8. 8. Our Options <ul><li>Option 1 - Do nothing </li></ul><ul><li>Option 2 - Sell them the bomb </li></ul><ul><li>Option 3 - Foster development of GCC </li></ul>
  9. 9. Option 1 - Do Nothing <ul><li>Most politically appetizing </li></ul><ul><li>Will give more room for China to maneuver </li></ul><ul><li>Mass nuclear proliferation risks </li></ul><ul><li>Possibility of destroying Gulf Cooperation Council </li></ul>
  10. 10. Option 2 - Sell the Bomb <ul><li>Allows for Saudis to check Iranian influence </li></ul><ul><li>Makes the Saudis feel more secure </li></ul><ul><li>Keeps the Chinese out </li></ul><ul><li>Still mass nuclear-proliferation risks </li></ul><ul><li>Still may destroy the GCC </li></ul><ul><li>Politically unfeasible - American Jewish Lobby and Israeli opposition </li></ul>
  11. 11. Option 3 - Foster GCC Development <ul><li>Foster political and military integration </li></ul><ul><li>Upgrade GCC conventional military capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Increase military training between NATO, US, and GCC </li></ul><ul><li>Either NATO or U.S. direct commitment to defending GCC </li></ul><ul><li>Reaffirmation of MAD doctrine and permanent U.S. SSBN nuclear deterrent patrols in Persian Gulf </li></ul><ul><li>A Marshall plan like economic re-construction commitment for GCC states </li></ul>
  12. 12. Why Option 3? <ul><li>Allows for a decrease in gulf rivalries within GCC </li></ul><ul><li>Allows for GCC to defend itself, and provides a strong partner in Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>NATO sponsorship would decrease the anti-American blow back </li></ul><ul><li>SSBN patrols would give US first strike capabilities against Iran </li></ul><ul><li>Economic re-construction would alleviate internal dissent </li></ul><ul><li>Would keep China out indefinitely </li></ul>
  13. 13. Draw Backs <ul><li>Politically hard to do </li></ul><ul><li>Rivalries in GCC run deep </li></ul><ul><li>Make Iran more militant </li></ul>

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