impact on the year-to-year especially to improve the rigor of the standard high Is DemographyRegion Figure 4.1. Births by Destiny? 1.6 1.4 South 1.2 West 1.0Millions .8 Midwest Northeast .6 .4 .2 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Figure 4.2. Percent Change in Births Between 1994 and 2004 by Region and Race/Ethnicity
Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Region 2001-02 2006-07 2019-20 1200 900 600 300 Northeast Midwest South 0 WestSource: WICHE
Summ Figure 2.22. Percent Change in Public and Nation Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, indicat 2004-05 to 2014-15 of high will ris contin began decade the nu will dip before again of the the cen geogra as indi face ve over th -10% or less -5% to -9.99% terms -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% gradua 10.01% to 20% from p Greater than 20% high scSource: WICHE Figure illustraregionwide, with several exceptions. Louisiana is the statesmost obvious one, though the decline in graduates and the medium term. Figure 2.21 s
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic % Growth/Decline Change in PublicSchool Graduates Figure 3.14. Cumulative Percent of High High School by Race/Ethnicity in the Northeast Graduates in the Northeast Relative to 2004-05 by Race/Ethnicity 100 80 65.5% 60 50.9% 40 31.9% 38.7% 28.7%Percent 29.7% 26.9% 20 24.1% 14.6% 11.6% 0 -1.4% -4.4% -8.2% -12.7% -20 -18.2% -40 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 -1 2 -1 3 -1 4 -1 5 -1 6 17 18 19 20 21 22 0 4- 0 5- 0 6- 0 7- 0 8- 09- 10- 11 12 13 14 15 16- 17- 18- 1 9- 20- 21- 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Source: WICHE
critical looktructureation ine needs Actual and Projected High Schoolging Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State Figure 3.22. Numerical Change Between 2005um and 2015 in American Indian/Alaska Nativemographic Public High School Graduates by State ated ine than innce, theal school graduates is heavieready have spanic ough even arably little ng withs will see relative tudent refore, this 0 or less a series of 1 to 100 101 to 250 ended to Greater than 250 ing racial/on ofort of high Source: WICHE
75.01% to 90% Greater than 90% its regions, and m Actual and Projected High School its states are radi changing the rac Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State ethnic compositi student body tha schools will be se the years to com Figure 3.34. Numerical Change Between 2005 school graduatin and 2015 in White non-Hispanic are diversifying a Public High School Graduates by State rapidly. Although high school grad on to college and college students high school grad such diversificati pressure on man of postsecondary to adapt. States and institu have to consider ensure that the c being offered is sensitive and res -10,000 or less Given historical p -9,999 to -2,500 -2,499 to 0 of academic sup Greater than 0 preparation, aca financial aid advi likely see more st with larger deficSource: WICHE learning and few
graduates. Figure 3.32 shows the rates non-Hispanic graduates in California in 2014-15 are Actual and Projected High Schoolowth is projected to occur. Hispanic s will grow especially rapidly in all the projected to number almost 40,000 less than they did in 2004-05, and the decline will exceed 10,000 in Illinois, hare Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State h, as well as in several Midwest states. Pennsylvania, New York, and Texas. ates Figure 3.31. Numerical Change Between da still wth 2005 and 2015 in Hispanic Public High Schooldents due Graduates by Stateate of nd several tes, suchArizona, mbination and a fastugh not as nics fornia, ico, and Hispanic sed 0 or less ose 1 to 5,000public 5,001 to 20,000 Greater than 20,00005 reover,states,hern Source: WICHE the enerallyting
Greater than 10% Carolina) will se Actual and Projected High School Drops will also the southern pa Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State England, as we York and Califo most of the sta Figure 3.28. Numerical Change Between 2005 country can exp and 2015 in Black non-Hispanic increases in the Public High School Graduates by State of Black non-H graduates from schools by 201 States showing average annua in Black non-Hi graduate numb 2014-15 are m those that have small Black non populations in place (Figure 3 such as Monta and North Dak which projectio 0 or less 1 to 1,000 a growth rate e 1,001 to 5,000 Greater than 5,000 10 percent per see high rates o but very modes in the numberSource: WICHE non-Hispanic g
Actual and Projected High School York, Virginia, and Washington – had shares between five and 10 percent. Several of those same states will as states that will see their number of public h graduates of Asian/Pacific Islander descent clim Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State continue to add larger numbers of graduates from this group than other states: California, Nevada, New Jersey, than 2,500 between 2005 and 2015 (Figure 3 Louisiana, Massachusetts, South Dakota, and New York, and Virginia will be joined by Florida and Texas Island are forecast to produce fewer Asian/Pac graduates in th Figure 3.25. Numerical Change Between 2005 A vast swath of and 2015 in Asian/Pacific Islander the center of th spanning three Public High School Graduates by State West, the Midw the South), will modest increase than 1,000 Asia Islander gradua Nationally, Asia Islanders are pr to see the secon growth rates am racial/ethnic gro 3.26). Only fou see a negative a annual growth 0 or less the decade follo 1 to 1,000 2004-05: Hawa 1,001 to 2,500 Greater than 2,500 Massachusetts, Island.11 Arizon and Arkansas ca the biggest incrSource: WICHE in Asian/Pacific numbers, and t Figure 3.26. Average Annual Percent Change tier of states ge (other than Lou
% of Lives Births 18 Years Later Enrolled in Postsecondary Education % Enrolled in PSE 80 60‣ PSE participation rate 40‣ Market share 20 1970 1990 2000 0‣ New markets 2008 2010 Source: WICHE
Participation Rates‣ PSE participation rates are inversely correlated to the economy‣ Females participation rates have increased at a higher rate than males over the last decade‣ Over the last decade the participation rate of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asian/Paciﬁc Islanders have increased slightly‣ The national enrollment migration pattern‣ 6,289Source: US Department of Education
‣ Taking away their cell phones‣ The bedroom is command central‣ An escape from a mundane life‣ Isolation or a social network‣ Enhanced learning or the deteriorationhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/digitalnation/view/
‣ Entitlement generation‣ Expect to succeed‣ Seek edutainment‣ Blurred boundaries for classroom behavior‣ Socialize online and in packs‣ Multi-taskers
‣ Living in the Techno Cro-Magnon Period‣ Inhabitants of a ﬂat world‣ Increasingly diverse‣ More 1st generation‣ Family-oriented‣ Marketing skeptics
The New Normal 1975 200850 44.7 43.537.5 25 31.1 22.1 12.5 20.7 0 8.8 Only Husband Working Dual Earners Single Parent Earner
1.Changing careers more frequently2.Working multiple jobs3.Self-employed4.Contract laborers5.Working from home
The future of the US workforce will bedetermined by:‣ The rate of recovery from the recession Adu lts student s e will follow th jobs.‣ The growth of Green technology and infrastructure jobs‣ Legislation regarding labor force issues such as NAFTA‣ The pace of technological change‣ A quickening rate of economic globalization
‣ Privacy issues‣ Sexting‣ Cyber bullying‣ Depression‣ Relationship depth and breadth‣ Illegal ﬁle sharing‣ Access to all human knowledge‣ Validation of information‣ Plagiarism‣ A culture of immediacy‣ Classroom behavior
We are not immune to the phenomenon<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/tGn3-RW8Ajk?rel=0"
Trend 2: The eBookRevolution‣ 1 million iPads sold in the ﬁrst 27 days in the US‣ Amazon is selling 143 eBooks for every 100 hard copy books sold‣ Amazon has 630,000 Kindle eBooks‣ Stanford University leads the way in digitizing library books
The University of Texas at San Antonioannounces the opening of the world’sfirst bookless library in 2010.
Flatworld Knowledge is the world’s largestpublisher of fully editable and FREE collegetextbooks.
The Next Generation of Textbooks<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uL-2Egqc1qc? rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Trend 6: A Widening Range of StudentAbilities, Preparedness, Background, andMotivation The Obama Administration’s higher education agenda...
The Administration’s Goals ‣ By 2020, have the ‣ Restructure federal highest college ﬁnancial aid completion rate in the world ‣ Invest in community colleges to equip a ‣ Increase access to greater number of higher education people with the ‣ Strengthen the PSE skills to work in pipeline emerging industries
The top 5 countries with the highest college completion rates 1. Canada (55.8%) 2. South Korea (55.5%) 3. Russia (55.4%) 4. Japan (55.3%) 5. New Zealand (47.3%)Among Americans 25-34 years of age, 40% have an associate’s degree or higher--placing the US 12th in the ranking.
Challenges and Opportunities‣ A recovering economy‣ Protracted developmental coursework‣ Early student engagement with support services‣ Sustained intervention and mentoring‣ Employee bandwidth‣ Faculty development‣ Commitment and accessibility of adjunct instructors
Trend 7: Financial ConstraintsHigher education is in a periodof “creative destruction.”-- Joseph Schumpeter
College and universities of the future must focus on... ‣ Cost management rather than revenue enhancement ‣ The institution’s core educational mission rather than pursuing new sources of revenue and status ‣ Strategic choices rather than short-term ﬁxesSource: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education
‣ Balancing ACCESS and QUALITY‣ Leveraging strategic intelligence‣ Focusing on what matters most‣ Letting go of less effective strategies‣ Willingness to sunset programs that have atrophied‣ Monitoring ROI‣ Continuous improvement
“Skate to wherethe puck will be.” -- Wayne Gretzky Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts“Be the change you want to see in the world.” --Gandhi
Undesired Behaviors Faulty Mental Me-Centered Maps Attitudes Ineffective TeachingUnproductive Methodologies Strategies Archaic Policies Decisions Void of Data Calcified Practices
Attributes of an Enrollment Champion• Visionary leader • Marketing savvy• Team builder • Credible authority• Effective communicator • Learner-centered• Analytical • An educator• Systems thinker • Problem-solver• Technologically-oriented • Understands organizational• Planner and doer behavior • Human and organizational capacity builder
Final ThoughtsTo thrive in the future, you musthave the intelligence that allowsyour organization to FOCUS onthe right strategic issues and the institutional WILL to act.
Dr. Jim Blackjimblack@semworks.netwww.semworks.net