Emerging trends nscec


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Emerging trends nscec

  1. 1. Emerging TrendsImpacting Higher EducationPresented by Dr. Jim Black, President & CEO of SEM Works
  2. 2. Agenda ‣ Demographic shifts ‣ Tomorrow’s Students ‣ Emerging Trends
  3. 3. graphic ShiftsDemo
  4. 4. Is Demography Destiny?
  5. 5. impact on the year-to-year especially to improve the rigor of the standard high Is DemographyRegion Figure 4.1. Births by Destiny? 1.6 1.4 South 1.2 West 1.0Millions .8 Midwest Northeast .6 .4 .2 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Figure 4.2. Percent Change in Births Between 1994 and 2004 by Region and Race/Ethnicity
  6. 6. Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Region 2001-02 2006-07 2019-20 1200 900 600 300 Northeast Midwest South 0 WestSource: WICHE
  7. 7. Summ Figure 2.22. Percent Change in Public and Nation Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, indicat 2004-05 to 2014-15 of high will ris contin began decade the nu will dip before again of the the cen geogra as indi face ve over th -10% or less -5% to -9.99% terms -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% gradua 10.01% to 20% from p Greater than 20% high scSource: WICHE Figure illustraregionwide, with several exceptions. Louisiana is the statesmost obvious one, though the decline in graduates and the medium term. Figure 2.21 s
  8. 8. critical looktructureation ine needs Actual and Projected High Schoolging Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State Figure 3.22. Numerical Change Between 2005um and 2015 in American Indian/Alaska Nativemographic Public High School Graduates by State ated ine than innce, theal school graduates is heavieready have spanic ough even arably little ng withs will see relative tudent refore, this 0 or less a series of 1 to 100 101 to 250 ended to Greater than 250 ing racial/on ofort of high Source: WICHE
  9. 9. 75.01% to 90% Greater than 90% its regions, and m Actual and Projected High School its states are radi changing the rac Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State ethnic compositi student body tha schools will be se the years to com Figure 3.34. Numerical Change Between 2005 school graduatin and 2015 in White non-Hispanic are diversifying a Public High School Graduates by State rapidly. Although high school grad on to college and college students high school grad such diversificati pressure on man of postsecondary to adapt. States and institu have to consider ensure that the c being offered is sensitive and res -10,000 or less Given historical p -9,999 to -2,500 -2,499 to 0 of academic sup Greater than 0 preparation, aca financial aid advi likely see more st with larger deficSource: WICHE learning and few
  10. 10. graduates. Figure 3.32 shows the rates non-Hispanic graduates in California in 2014-15 are Actual and Projected High Schoolowth is projected to occur. Hispanic s will grow especially rapidly in all the projected to number almost 40,000 less than they did in 2004-05, and the decline will exceed 10,000 in Illinois, hare Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State h, as well as in several Midwest states. Pennsylvania, New York, and Texas. ates Figure 3.31. Numerical Change Between da still wth 2005 and 2015 in Hispanic Public High Schooldents due Graduates by Stateate of nd several tes, suchArizona, mbination and a fastugh not as nics fornia, ico, and Hispanic sed 0 or less ose 1 to 5,000public 5,001 to 20,000 Greater than 20,00005 reover,states,hern Source: WICHE the enerallyting
  11. 11. Greater than 10% Carolina) will se Actual and Projected High School Drops will also the southern pa Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State England, as we York and Califo most of the sta Figure 3.28. Numerical Change Between 2005 country can exp and 2015 in Black non-Hispanic increases in the Public High School Graduates by State of Black non-H graduates from schools by 201 States showing average annua in Black non-Hi graduate numb 2014-15 are m those that have small Black non populations in place (Figure 3 such as Monta and North Dak which projectio 0 or less 1 to 1,000 a growth rate e 1,001 to 5,000 Greater than 5,000 10 percent per see high rates o but very modes in the numberSource: WICHE non-Hispanic g
  12. 12. Actual and Projected High School York, Virginia, and Washington – had shares between five and 10 percent. Several of those same states will as states that will see their number of public h graduates of Asian/Pacific Islander descent clim Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State continue to add larger numbers of graduates from this group than other states: California, Nevada, New Jersey, than 2,500 between 2005 and 2015 (Figure 3 Louisiana, Massachusetts, South Dakota, and New York, and Virginia will be joined by Florida and Texas Island are forecast to produce fewer Asian/Pac graduates in th Figure 3.25. Numerical Change Between 2005 A vast swath of and 2015 in Asian/Pacific Islander the center of th spanning three Public High School Graduates by State West, the Midw the South), will modest increase than 1,000 Asia Islander gradua Nationally, Asia Islanders are pr to see the secon growth rates am racial/ethnic gro 3.26). Only fou see a negative a annual growth 0 or less the decade follo 1 to 1,000 2004-05: Hawa 1,001 to 2,500 Greater than 2,500 Massachusetts, Island.11 Arizon and Arkansas ca the biggest incrSource: WICHE in Asian/Pacific numbers, and t Figure 3.26. Average Annual Percent Change tier of states ge (other than Lou
  13. 13. % of Lives Births 18 Years Later Enrolled in Postsecondary Education % Enrolled in PSE 80 60‣ PSE participation rate 40‣ Market share 20 1970 1990 2000 0‣ New markets 2008 2011 Source: WICHE
  14. 14. Participation Rates‣ PSE participation rates are inversely correlated to the economy‣ Females participation rates have increased at a higher rate than males over the last decade‣ Over the last decade the participation rate of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asian/Pacific Islanders has increased slightly‣ The national enrollment migration pattern‣ 6,289Source: US Department of Education
  15. 15. Market Share ‣ Market share ‣ Mind share
  16. 16. New Market Risks Established New Programs Programs 1. Lowest Risk 2. Moderate RiskEstablished Market Market Penetration Program Expansion 3. Moderate Risk 4. Highest Risk New Market Market Expansion Market Diversification
  17. 17. orrow’s StudentsTom
  18. 18. Pathway Promises ‣ Further education ‣ Employment ‣ Career advancement ‣ Opportunities to learnJobs
  19. 19. Always Connected
  20. 20. ‣ Taking away their cell phones‣ The bedroom is command central‣ An escape from a mundane life‣ Isolation or a social network‣ Enhanced learning or deteriorationhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/digitalnation/view/
  21. 21. ‣ Entitlement generation‣ Expect to succeed‣ Seek edutainment‣ Blurred boundaries for classroom behavior‣ Socialize online and in packs‣ Multi-taskers
  22. 22. ‣ Living in the Techno Cro-Magnon Period‣ Inhabitants of a flat world‣ Increasingly diverse‣ More 1st generation‣ Family-oriented‣ Marketing skeptics
  23. 23. The New Normal 1975 200850 44.7 43.537.5 25 31.1 22.1 12.5 20.7 0 8.8 Only Husband Working Dual Earners Single Parent Earner
  24. 24. 1.Changing careers more frequently2.Working multiple jobs3.Self-employed4.Contract laborers5.Working from home
  25. 25. The future of the US workforce will bedetermined by:‣ The rate of recovery from the recession‣ The growth of Green technology and infrastructure jobs‣ Legislation regarding labor force issues such as NAFTA‣ The pace of technological change‣ A quickening rate of economic globalization
  26. 26. The future of the US workforce will bedetermined by:‣ The rate of recovery from the recession Adu lts student s e will follow th jobs.‣ The growth of Green technology and infrastructure jobs‣ Legislation regarding labor force issues such as NAFTA‣ The pace of technological change‣ A quickening rate of economic globalization
  27. 27. rging TrendsEme
  28. 28. Trend 1: Social and Digital Media
  29. 29. ‣ Privacy issues‣ Sexting‣ Cyber bullying‣ Depression‣ Relationship depth and breadth‣ Illegal file sharing‣ Access to all human knowledge‣ Validation of information‣ Plagiarism‣ A culture of immediacy‣ Classroom behavior
  30. 30. ‣ Privacy issues‣ Sexting‣ Cyber bullying‣ Depression‣ Relationship depth and breadth‣ Illegal file sharing‣ Access to all human knowledge‣ Validation of information‣ Plagiarism‣ A culture of immediacy‣ Classroom behavior
  31. 31. We are not immune to the phenomenon<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/tGn3-RW8Ajk?rel=0"
  32. 32. Trend 2: The eBookRevolution‣ 1 million iPads sold in the first 27 days in the US‣ Amazon is selling 143 eBooks for every 100 hard copy books sold‣ Amazon has 630,000 Kindle eBooks‣ Stanford University leads the way in digitizing library books
  33. 33. The University of Texas at San Antonioannounces the opening of the world’sfirst bookless library in 2010.
  34. 34. Flatworld Knowledge is the world’s largestpublisher of fully editable and FREE collegetextbooks.
  35. 35. The Next Generation of Textbooks<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uL-2Egqc1qc? rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
  36. 36. Trend 3: Consumer-Driven, Flexible Learning Options http://www.uopeople.org/<iframe width="960" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/7w8My_aNDDw? rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
  37. 37. Trend 4: High Tech, High Touch ServicesOne-stopServices
  38. 38. No-stop Serviceshttp://itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/student-services/id390961657
  39. 39. Any-stop Services Shared Service Center
  40. 40. Trend 5: Outsourcing CRMSystems
  41. 41. Trend 6: A Widening Range of StudentAbilities, Preparedness, Background, andMotivation The Obama Administration’s higher education agenda...
  42. 42. The Administration’s Goals ‣ By 2020, have the ‣ Restructure federal highest college financial aid completion rate in the world ‣ Invest in community colleges to equip a ‣ Increase access to greater number of higher education people with the ‣ Strengthen the PSE skills to work in pipeline emerging industries
  43. 43. The top 5 countries with the highestcollege completion rates 1. Canada (55.8%) 2. South Korea (55.5%) 3. Russia (55.4%) 4. Japan (55.3%) 5. New Zealand (47.3%)
  44. 44. The top 5 countries with the highest college completion rates 1. Canada (55.8%) 2. South Korea (55.5%) 3. Russia (55.4%) 4. Japan (55.3%) 5. New Zealand (47.3%)Among Americans 25-34 years of age, 40% have an associate’s degree or higher--placing the US 12th in the ranking.
  45. 45. Challenges and Opportunities‣ A recovering economy‣ Protracted developmental coursework‣ Early student engagement with support services‣ Sustained intervention and mentoring‣ Employee bandwidth‣ Faculty development‣ Commitment and accessibility of adjunct instructors
  46. 46. Trend 7: Financial ConstraintsHigher education is in a periodof “creative destruction.”-- Joseph Schumpeter
  47. 47. US College Cost Trends Consumer Expectations
  48. 48. 2011-12 Tuition and Fees
  49. 49. College and universities of the future must focus on... ‣ Cost management rather than revenue enhancement ‣ The institution’s core educational mission rather than pursuing new sources of revenue and status ‣ Strategic choices rather than short-term fixesSource: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education
  50. 50. ‣ Balancing ACCESS and QUALITY‣ Leveraging strategic intelligence‣ Focusing on what matters most‣ Letting go of less effective strategies‣ Willingness to sunset programs that have atrophied‣ Monitoring ROI‣ Continuous improvement
  51. 51. “Skate to wherethe puck will be.” -- Wayne Gretzky Final Thoughts
  52. 52. Final Thoughts“Be the change you want to see in the world.” --Gandhi
  53. 53. Undesired Behaviors Faulty Mental Me-Centered Maps Attitudes Ineffective TeachingUnproductive Methodologies Strategies Archaic Policies Decisions Void of Data Calcified Practices
  54. 54. Final ThoughtsTo thrive in the future, you musthave the intelligence that allowsyour organization to FOCUS onthe right strategic issues and the institutional WILL to act.
  55. 55. Dr. Jim Blackjimblack@semworks.netwww.semworks.net