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1 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
SEEKING
PREDICTABILITY IN
A COMPLEX WORLD
NIRVANA
JOSÉ CASA...
2 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
IN YOUR BUSINESS,
WHAT WOULD
“BETTER”
LOOK LIKE?
3 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
USUALLY… FASTER
CHEAPER
MORE DELIVERIES
FEWER DEFECTS
LESS ...
4 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
WHAT COMPANIES
REALLY WANT IS A MORE
PREDICTABLE
PROCESS TH...
5@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
(SIMON WARDL...
6@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
(SIMON WARDL...
7@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
Photo by Max...
8@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
Photo by Pac...
9@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
AGILE TEAMS
HAVE NOTHING
TO DO WITH
BUSINESS
AGILITY
(KLAUS LEOPOLD)
10 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
THERE ARE 3 CORE
FLOW METRICS
ELAPSED TIME
WORK IN PROGRES...
11@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
WORK IN PROGRESS
ANALYSIS
ACTIVE
ANALYSIS
DONE
DEVELOPMENT
ACTIVE
DEVELOPMENT
DONE
ID...
12@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
ARRIVAL RATE
DELIVERY RATE
13@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
ELAPSED TIME
WORKITEMS
WORK IN PROGRESS
ELAPSED TIME
THROUGHPUT
ARRIVAL RATE
DELIVERY...
14@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
LITTLE’S LAW
AVERAGE THROUGHPUT =
AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS /
AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME
(PR...
15@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
LITTLE’S LAW
AVERAGE THROUGHPUT =
AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS /
AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME
(PR...
16@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS
LITTLE’S LAW
IS NOT A MATHEMATICAL
FORMULA
IT CAN ONLY
PROVID...
17@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
ELAPSED TIME
WORKITEMS
WORK IN PROGRESS
ELAPSED TIME
THROUGHPUT
ARRIVAL RATE
DELIVERY...
18@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
THREE POSSIBLE CFD PATTERNS
CROCODILE MOUTH GOING TO STARVE BALANCED FLOW
ARRIVAL RAT...
19@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
IF YOUR PROCESS
IS NOT STABLE,
IT CANNOT BE
PREDICTABLE
(DANIEL VACANTI)
20 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
SO WHAT ABOUT
PREDICTABILITY?
TRUST
TRANSPARENCY
COLLABORA...
21@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PICK A CFD
A B C
WHICH OPTION IS BETTER FOR PREDICTABILITY?
WHICH ONE DO YOU HAVE TOD...
22@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
3 STEPS TO NIRVANA
THROUGHPUT
WORK IN PROGRESS
ELAPSED TIME
=
FOCUS ON ONE OF THESE F...
23@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
YOUR BIGGEST
PREDICTABILITY
PROBLEM IS USUALLY
TOO MUCH WIP
(DANIEL VACANTI)
24@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
STEP 1
WORK IN PROGRESS
STEP 1: MAKE THE LINES PARALLEL
KEY METRIC:
INTERVENE ON: ARR...
25@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
STEP 2
ELAPSED TIME
STEP 2: MAKE THE LINES NARROWER
KEY METRIC:
INTERVENE ON: WORKFLO...
26@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
STEP 3
THROUGHPUT
STEP 3: MAKE THE LINES STEEPER
KEY METRIC:
INTERVENE ON: TOOLS & TE...
27@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
AGILE TEAMS
HAVE NOTHING
TO DO WITH
BUSINESS
AGILITY
(KLAUS LEOPOLD)
28@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
BUSINESS AGILITY NIRVANA
THROUGHPUTWORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME
2a
2b
3
1
BUSINESS A...
29 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
RECAP
AVOID THE CROCS
FLOW METRICS ARE YOUR FRIENDS
IT IS ...
30 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
REACH YOUR
BUSINESS AGILITY
NIRVANA
31@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
improve
the system
don't blame
the people
www.
.xyz
THANKS
busy is
easy
focus is
hard...
32@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Seeking Nirvana - Predictability in a Complex World

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Talk presented at Agile Lean Ireland 2019.

Published in: Leadership & Management
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Seeking Nirvana - Predictability in a Complex World

  1. 1. 1 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal SEEKING PREDICTABILITY IN A COMPLEX WORLD NIRVANA JOSÉ CASAL @jose_casal
  2. 2. 2 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal IN YOUR BUSINESS, WHAT WOULD “BETTER” LOOK LIKE?
  3. 3. 3 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal USUALLY… FASTER CHEAPER MORE DELIVERIES FEWER DEFECTS LESS RISKY
  4. 4. 4 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal WHAT COMPANIES REALLY WANT IS A MORE PREDICTABLE PROCESS THEY CAN TRUST
  5. 5. 5@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING (SIMON WARDLEY)
  6. 6. 6@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING (SIMON WARDLEY)
  7. 7. 7@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING Photo by Max Baskakov on Unsplash UH-OH!
  8. 8. 8@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PREDICTABILITY IS A MEASURE OF HOW ACCURATELY WE CAN ANTICIPATE SOMETHING Photo by Pacto Visual on Unsplash OOOOH, LET’S PLAY!
  9. 9. 9@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz AGILE TEAMS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH BUSINESS AGILITY (KLAUS LEOPOLD)
  10. 10. 10 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal THERE ARE 3 CORE FLOW METRICS ELAPSED TIME WORK IN PROGRESS THROUGHPUT
  11. 11. 11@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz WORK IN PROGRESS ANALYSIS ACTIVE ANALYSIS DONE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT DONE IDEAS ELAPSED TIME THROUGHPUT DONETESTING
  12. 12. 12@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz ARRIVAL RATE DELIVERY RATE
  13. 13. 13@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz ELAPSED TIME WORKITEMS WORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME THROUGHPUT ARRIVAL RATE DELIVERY RATE
  14. 14. 14@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE THROUGHPUT = AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS / AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME (PROF. JOHN LITTLE)
  15. 15. 15@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE THROUGHPUT = AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS / AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME (PROF. JOHN LITTLE)
  16. 16. 16@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS LITTLE’S LAW IS NOT A MATHEMATICAL FORMULA IT CAN ONLY PROVIDE GUIDANCE (DANIEL VACANTI)
  17. 17. 17@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz ELAPSED TIME WORKITEMS WORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME THROUGHPUT ARRIVAL RATE DELIVERY RATE
  18. 18. 18@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz THREE POSSIBLE CFD PATTERNS CROCODILE MOUTH GOING TO STARVE BALANCED FLOW ARRIVAL RATE > DELIVERY RATE ARRIVAL RATE < DELIVERY RATE ARRIVAL RATE = DELIVERY RATE WIP IS INCREASING ELAPSED TIME IS INCREASING THROUGHPUT IS STABLE WIP IS DECREASING ELAPSED TIME IS DECREASING THROUGHPUT IS STABLE WIP IS STABLE ELAPSED TIME IS STABLE THROUGHPUT IS STABLE
  19. 19. 19@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz IF YOUR PROCESS IS NOT STABLE, IT CANNOT BE PREDICTABLE (DANIEL VACANTI)
  20. 20. 20 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal SO WHAT ABOUT PREDICTABILITY? TRUST TRANSPARENCY COLLABORATION HAPPY TEAMS SATISFIED CUSTOMERS
  21. 21. 21@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz PICK A CFD A B C WHICH OPTION IS BETTER FOR PREDICTABILITY? WHICH ONE DO YOU HAVE TODAY?
  22. 22. 22@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz 3 STEPS TO NIRVANA THROUGHPUT WORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME = FOCUS ON ONE OF THESE FLOW METRICS IN EACH STEP
  23. 23. 23@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz YOUR BIGGEST PREDICTABILITY PROBLEM IS USUALLY TOO MUCH WIP (DANIEL VACANTI)
  24. 24. 24@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz STEP 1 WORK IN PROGRESS STEP 1: MAKE THE LINES PARALLEL KEY METRIC: INTERVENE ON: ARRIVAL RATE ENTRY POINT OUTCOMES: SUSTAINABILITY PEOPLE-CENTRIC EXPERIMENTS: 1 OUT / 1 IN REPLENISHMENT CONWIP FOCUS: STABILITY
  25. 25. 25@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz STEP 2 ELAPSED TIME STEP 2: MAKE THE LINES NARROWER KEY METRIC: INTERVENE ON: WORKFLOW PROCESS & POLICIES OUTCOMES: FASTER DELIVERY EFFICIENT PROCESS EXPERIMENTS: LOWER WIP AGING METRICS READINESS CRITERIA WASTE REDUCTION FOCUS: PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
  26. 26. 26@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz STEP 3 THROUGHPUT STEP 3: MAKE THE LINES STEEPER KEY METRIC: INTERVENE ON: TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY CAPACITY OUTCOMES: MORE DELIVERIES CUSTOMER SATISFACTION EXPERIMENTS: PROCESS AUTOMATION TECHNICAL DEBT REDUCTION NEW TECH & TOOLS SCALE UP FOCUS: CAPABILITY IMPROVEMENT
  27. 27. 27@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz AGILE TEAMS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH BUSINESS AGILITY (KLAUS LEOPOLD)
  28. 28. 28@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz BUSINESS AGILITY NIRVANA THROUGHPUTWORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME 2a 2b 3 1 BUSINESS AGILITY TAKES A LONG TIME TO EMERGE REMEMBER WHAT PHASE YOU ARE IN & MAINTAIN FOCUS
  29. 29. 29 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal RECAP AVOID THE CROCS FLOW METRICS ARE YOUR FRIENDS IT IS NOT ABOUT THE TEAMS PREDICTABILITY ENABLES TRUST FOCUS ON THE RIGHT METRIC
  30. 30. 30 www. .xyz ©2018ActineoConsultingLLP @actineo_xyz @jose_casal REACH YOUR BUSINESS AGILITY NIRVANA
  31. 31. 31@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz improve the system don't blame the people www. .xyz THANKS busy is easy focus is hard www. .xyz www. .xyz kill yourWIPnot yourbusinesswww. .xyz nail it before you scale it www. .xyz stop startingand startfinishingwww. .xyz PICK UP YOUR STICKERS AT OUR BOOTH
  32. 32. 32@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz BIBLIOGRAPHY

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