SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
SEEKING
PREDICTABILITY IN
A COMPLEX WORLD
NIRVANA
JOSÉ CASAL
@jose_casal
2 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
IN YOUR BUSINESS,
WHAT WOULD
“BETTER”
LOOK LIKE?
3 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
USUALLY… FASTER
CHEAPER
MORE DELIVERIES
FEWER DEFECTS
LESS RISKY
4 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
WHAT COMPANIES
REALLY WANT IS A MORE
PREDICTABLE
PROCESS THEY CAN TRUST
5@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
(SIMON WARDLEY)
6@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
(SIMON WARDLEY)
7@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
Photo by Max Baskakov on Unsplash
UH-OH!
8@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PREDICTABILITY
IS A MEASURE OF HOW
ACCURATELY WE CAN
ANTICIPATE SOMETHING
Photo by Pacto Visual on Unsplash
OOOOH,
LET’S PLAY!
9@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
AGILE TEAMS
HAVE NOTHING
TO DO WITH
BUSINESS
AGILITY
(KLAUS LEOPOLD)
10 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
THERE ARE 3 CORE
FLOW METRICS
ELAPSED TIME
WORK IN PROGRESS
THROUGHPUT
11@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
WORK IN PROGRESS
ANALYSIS
ACTIVE
ANALYSIS
DONE
DEVELOPMENT
ACTIVE
DEVELOPMENT
DONE
IDEAS
ELAPSED TIME
THROUGHPUT
DONETESTING
12@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
ARRIVAL RATE
DELIVERY RATE
13@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
ELAPSED TIME
WORKITEMS
WORK IN PROGRESS
ELAPSED TIME
THROUGHPUT
ARRIVAL RATE
DELIVERY RATE
14@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
LITTLE’S LAW
AVERAGE THROUGHPUT =
AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS /
AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME
(PROF. JOHN LITTLE)
15@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
LITTLE’S LAW
AVERAGE THROUGHPUT =
AVERAGE WORK IN PROGRESS /
AVERAGE ELAPSED TIME
(PROF. JOHN LITTLE)
16@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS
LITTLE’S LAW
IS NOT A MATHEMATICAL
FORMULA
IT CAN ONLY
PROVIDE GUIDANCE
(DANIEL VACANTI)
17@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
ELAPSED TIME
WORKITEMS
WORK IN PROGRESS
ELAPSED TIME
THROUGHPUT
ARRIVAL RATE
DELIVERY RATE
18@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
THREE POSSIBLE CFD PATTERNS
CROCODILE MOUTH GOING TO STARVE BALANCED FLOW
ARRIVAL RATE > DELIVERY RATE ARRIVAL RATE < DELIVERY RATE ARRIVAL RATE = DELIVERY RATE
WIP IS INCREASING
ELAPSED TIME IS INCREASING
THROUGHPUT IS STABLE
WIP IS DECREASING
ELAPSED TIME IS DECREASING
THROUGHPUT IS STABLE
WIP IS STABLE
ELAPSED TIME IS STABLE
THROUGHPUT IS STABLE
19@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
IF YOUR PROCESS
IS NOT STABLE,
IT CANNOT BE
PREDICTABLE
(DANIEL VACANTI)
20 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
SO WHAT ABOUT
PREDICTABILITY?
TRUST
TRANSPARENCY
COLLABORATION
HAPPY TEAMS
SATISFIED CUSTOMERS
21@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
PICK A CFD
A B C
WHICH OPTION IS BETTER FOR PREDICTABILITY?
WHICH ONE DO YOU HAVE TODAY?
22@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
3 STEPS TO NIRVANA
THROUGHPUT
WORK IN PROGRESS
ELAPSED TIME
=
FOCUS ON ONE OF THESE FLOW METRICS IN EACH STEP
23@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
YOUR BIGGEST
PREDICTABILITY
PROBLEM IS USUALLY
TOO MUCH WIP
(DANIEL VACANTI)
24@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
STEP 1
WORK IN PROGRESS
STEP 1: MAKE THE LINES PARALLEL
KEY METRIC:
INTERVENE ON: ARRIVAL RATE
ENTRY POINT
OUTCOMES: SUSTAINABILITY
PEOPLE-CENTRIC
EXPERIMENTS: 1 OUT / 1 IN REPLENISHMENT
CONWIP
FOCUS: STABILITY
25@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
STEP 2
ELAPSED TIME
STEP 2: MAKE THE LINES NARROWER
KEY METRIC:
INTERVENE ON: WORKFLOW
PROCESS & POLICIES
OUTCOMES: FASTER DELIVERY
EFFICIENT PROCESS
EXPERIMENTS: LOWER WIP
AGING METRICS
READINESS CRITERIA
WASTE REDUCTION
FOCUS: PROCESS IMPROVEMENT
26@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
STEP 3
THROUGHPUT
STEP 3: MAKE THE LINES STEEPER
KEY METRIC:
INTERVENE ON: TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
CAPACITY
OUTCOMES: MORE DELIVERIES
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
EXPERIMENTS: PROCESS AUTOMATION
TECHNICAL DEBT REDUCTION
NEW TECH & TOOLS
SCALE UP
FOCUS: CAPABILITY IMPROVEMENT
27@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
AGILE TEAMS
HAVE NOTHING
TO DO WITH
BUSINESS
AGILITY
(KLAUS LEOPOLD)
28@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
BUSINESS AGILITY NIRVANA
THROUGHPUTWORK IN PROGRESS ELAPSED TIME
2a
2b
3
1
BUSINESS AGILITY TAKES A LONG TIME TO EMERGE
REMEMBER WHAT PHASE YOU ARE IN & MAINTAIN FOCUS
29 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
RECAP
AVOID THE CROCS
FLOW METRICS ARE YOUR FRIENDS
IT IS NOT ABOUT THE TEAMS
PREDICTABILITY ENABLES TRUST
FOCUS ON THE RIGHT METRIC
30 www. .xyz
©2018ActineoConsultingLLP
@actineo_xyz @jose_casal
REACH YOUR
BUSINESS AGILITY
NIRVANA
31@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
improve
the system
don't blame
the people
www.
.xyz
THANKS
busy is
easy
focus is
hard
www. .xyz
www. .xyz
kill yourWIPnot yourbusinesswww.
.xyz
nail it
before you
scale it
www.
.xyz
stop
startingand startfinishingwww.
.xyz
PICK UP YOUR
STICKERS AT
OUR BOOTH
32@actineo_xyz @jose_casal www. .xyz
BIBLIOGRAPHY

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