Overshooting Carrying Capacity Overshoot occurs when humanitys demand on nature exceeds the biospheres supply, or regenerative capacity. (Catton 1980) Carrying Capacity refers to the population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely
Exponential Growth Exponential Growth occurs when the amount that something increases is proportional to its current size (or value). This is a result of positive feedback. Example: The more people there are, the more people will be born. The rate or percentage increase may be constant.
Exponential Growth You can think of Exponential Growth as SPEEDING UP:1. The amount that is added growing larger over each unit of time OR2. The time shrinking between each additional unit of amount added.
What is Peak Oil?• Peak Oil production (aka Hubbert’s peak): – the point at which oil extraction reaches its highest level. After the peak, oil production declines. – It is also the point at which half of oil supply (for a well, a nation, or the world) is depleted. – Many people believe energy production from petroleum peaked already in 2005!
What is Peak Oil?• Implication: Energy will continue to become more and more expensive! – This does not mean we will ‘run out’ of oil- at some point it will take more energy to get the oil than the oil produces. – We use petroleum for everything: our food, pharmaceuticals, transportation, etc. – See http://dieoff.org
‘Peak Oil’ Facts Oil contributes to about 40 percent of energy production and supplies 90 percent of all transportation fuel (Korowicz 2010). A barrel of oil, which can be extracted for a dollar, generates 25,000 hours of labor. $1 = 25,000 hours of labor. Up until the 1950s, the United States was the “Saudi Arabia of oil”- it was world’s largest exporter. US production, however, peaked in 1970 at 10.2 million barrels a day and subsequently declined. Ten years later, domestic oil production was still in decline, despite the fact that four times more oil wells had been drilled. Currently the United States uses 25 percent of the world’s oil but possesses only 2 percent of the world’s known reserves 1 calorie of food requires about 10 calories of hydrocarbon energy in the US today.
‘Peak Oil’ Facts Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964. Today, there are about 50 countries that are producing less oil today than in the past CHEAP ENERGY IS ESSENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH. TODAY SUPPLY IS SLOWING DOWN, WHILE DEMAND IS SPEEDING UP!
Net Energy• It costs energy to produce energy.• Net Energy = Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI). When the EROEI of petroleum goes down to 1, petroleum will no longer be market viable.• The Principle of Lowest Hanging Fruit: we use up the easiest to acquire sources of energy first. As time goes on, our available net energy declines. – There will always be oil in the ground, but at some point it will take more energy to extract the oil than the energy produced by the extracted oil. Energy input Net Energy Energy output
‘Drill Baby Drill’?• What about the oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Preserve (ANWR)? Can’t we drill there?• At current rates of oil consumption, the ANWR contains enough oil to power the US for only six months. The Energy Information Administration has estimated tapping ANWR would lower oil prices by about 50 cents per barrel
Peak Coal• US is the "Saudi Arabia of coal“: US is the 2nd largest producer of coal, after China• Coal production (per weight) has not peaked, it continues to increase annually; however, total amount of energy generated from coal in the US peaked in 1998.• 30% decline in energy content per weight since 1955.
Peak Coal• Forecasts for peak coal production: – Peak in 10 to 15 years (Energy Watch Group) – Peak by 2020, and then begin a decline by 2050 (Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group) Wyoming MTR site
Peak Uranium• To replace the amount of energy we currently get from fossil fuels with nuclear power, we would need to build about 10,000 of the largest nuclear reactors.• World Uranium supply would then be depleted in a couple decades. Fallout from Fukushima
United States and Saudi Arabia Oil Production (1960-2008)
Declining Oil Prices and Rising Output (1960-1974)
Rising Oil Prices and Falling Rate of Output (1987-2008)
Per Capita Peak Production Global Oil Production per capita (1961-2003) 140 Million Barrels per Day per capita 124 108 92 76 60 1961 1972 1982 1993 2003 YearWorld oil production per capita. 1960-2003. Source: Energy EnergyInformation Administration (EIA). Population figures from EcologicalFootprint Network.
Growth in Energy Use (1990-2006) Growth in per capita Energy Consumption % change (1990-2006) 20 Variables United States % change (kt oil equivalent) OECD (without US) 15 China 10 5 0 -5 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 YearGrowth in per capita Energy Consumption. US, OECD, China.1990-2006. Source: World Bank.
Energy Use and Economic Growth US Energy use vs US GDP US Energy use (kt oil equivalent) logged 14.8 14.5 14.1 13.8 28.5 29.2 29.8 30.5 US GDP (constant 2000 US$) logged Energy use vs GDP. United States. 1960-2009. Source: World Bank.
Energy Use and Economic Growth World Energy use (kt of oil equivalent) logged World Energy vs World GDP (1971-2009) 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.4 30.0 30.5 30.9 31.4 World GDP (constant 2000 US$) logged World GDP vs. World Energy Use. 1971-2009. Source: World Bank.
Energy Use and Economic Growth US GDP and Energy Use per capita (1960=1) United States (1960-2008) 3.0 Variables GDP pc x Larger than in 1960 (=1) Energy Use pc 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1960 1973 1985 1998 2010 Year *GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) and Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent) Per capita GDP and Energy Use. United States (1960-2008).
Energy Use and Economic Growth World GDP and Energy Use per capita (1971=1) (1971-2008) 1.8 Variables GDP pc x Larger than in 1971 (=1) Energy Use pc 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year *GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) and Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent) Global per capita GDP and energy use (1971-2008)