Day Trading Blog : Jobs


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Again, we are back with the daily blogs of Larry Levin – a big name in the floor traders to get supportive information around day trading futures markets to help guide our work. As you see the topic we will discuss this time is a hot one: “Jobs”.

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Day Trading Blog : Jobs

  1. 1. Larry Levin’s Blog: Jobs Again, we are back with the daily blogs of Larry Levin – a big name in the floor traders to get supportive information around day trading futures markets to help guide our work. As you see the topic we will discuss this time is a hot one: “Jobs”.
  2. 2. During the market’s QE3 levitation act market participants and politicians have been talking a lot about jobs. Just wonder where they are? Where have they gone? Are they EVER coming back? The president has been talking about it too. He says he has a plan of action regarding this poor employment situation…
  3. 3. … and he’s going to tell us all about it right away when he gets back from vacationing and fund raising in Martha’s Vineyard. Yup, just as soon as his vacation is over, we’ll get the big plan. I’m on pins and needles in anticipation.
  4. 4. Weekly unemployment claims were released this morning. Once again they were awful: it was another print north of 400k! The report read “In the week ending August 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 421,000.
  5. 5. The 4-week moving average was 410,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 408,500.”
  6. 6. The ISM manufacturing data was released after the open, which was slightly better than expected, but at 50.6 is still barely above RECESSION levels. When looking deeper into the details, one can see it suggests that the economy may be in a recession now, or is damn sure getting there soon.
  7. 7. Talking about jobs, the ISM data is expected to affect Friday’s monthly payroll number. To wit, Goldman Sachs said “ISM stronger than expected in August, although details of the report are softer than the headline suggests…We are lowering our forecast for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report to +25k, from +50k previously.
  8. 8. The main reason is the accumulation of evidence of weak hiring in late July and August is that a sharp deterioration in perceptions of job availability in the latest Conference Board survey, a drop in today’s ISM manufacturing employment index, another drop in job advertising, and a soft ADP report.
  9. 9. Layoffs seem to have remained low, given steady jobless claims in the 410,000 range, though even here the recent pickup in layoff announcements is a concern.”
  10. 10. Hmm, it’s too bad the president’s “jobs plan” isn’t important enough for him to make the speech before his vacation. Then again, perhaps it is good. Maybe he shouldn’t have a “plan” on creating jobs at all. His current record is terrible – like his backing of Solyndra, one of the so-called “green jobs of the future.”
  11. 11. Just last year the president made a speech from the Solyndra “green jobs” plant in California and announced his support for a $535,000,000.00 loan guarantee. That’s over HALF A BILLION DOLLARS – gone – in one year! Solyndra filed for bankruptcy!
  12. 12. “ The true engine of economic growth will always be companies like Solyndra.” – President Obama “Companies like Solyndra are leading the way toward a brighter and more prosperous future.” – President Obama
  13. 13. What’s more, Solyndra will layoff 1,100 employees. So what did we have here? It is the president picking a would-be winner in his make believe “green jobs” fantasy world, and saved or created (using the calculator here…) ~$486,000 PER JOB! And in case you are poor with math that is neither a saved nor a created job but rather a MASSIVE loss to the taxpayer.
  14. 14. Another darling of the Obama administration was Evergreen Solar, and it too has recently filed for bankruptcy. You know, the administration also gave Seattle a $20-million grant for “green jobs” that only produced 14 of them. And that folks comes to a staggering $1,428,571 PER JOB.
  15. 15. On second thought, maybe president Obama should just stay in Martha’s Vineyard to hobnob with the wealthy and leave the job production to someone else…ANYONE else, if fact.
  16. 16. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.