Cvd risk


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Cvd risk

  1. 1. CVD – Risk
  2. 2. RISK <ul><li>Risk describes the probability that a particular event will happen. </li></ul><ul><li>Probability </li></ul><ul><li>Probability means the likelihood of the event, calculated mathematically. </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>The probability of throwing any number up to 6 in a dice, can be expressed as </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1 in 6 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>OR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>0.166666 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>OR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>17% </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. RISK <ul><li>It is possible to work out the risk of developing certain diseases or of dying from a particular disease. </li></ul><ul><li>For example, the National Safety Council in the US has shown that, based on figures from 2003, an American citizen had a 1 in 347076 chance of dying as the result of a fall involving their bed or another piece of furniture. </li></ul>Population of America People died this way
  5. 5. Epidemiology <ul><li>Epidemiology is the study of factors affecting the health and illness of populations. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Probability and Risk factors <ul><li>The risk of developing some diseases are higher for some people than others, depending on their lifestyle and the genes they have inherited. </li></ul><ul><li>Researchers look at people who have certain things in common (for example smoking) and compare their risk of disease with the average risk for the whole population. </li></ul><ul><li>This help them to identify the factors that may be involved in causing the disease. </li></ul><ul><li>This type of probability assessment plays important role in identifying RISK FACTORS for a disease. </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>The data show the risk of dying from heart disease or strokes in different areas of the UK, and the level of smoking in the same areas. </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>There is a similarity between mortality from heart disease or stroke and smoking patterns. </li></ul><ul><li>This suggests a relationship between the two. </li></ul><ul><li>A link like this is called a CORRELATION. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Correlation <ul><li>A factor that appears to be linked to a change or event. </li></ul><ul><li>eg: both increase or decrease at the same time. </li></ul>
  10. 10. <ul><li>A correlation does not prove that one is the CAUSE of the other. </li></ul><ul><li>They both could be caused by something else. </li></ul><ul><li>Correlation is not the same as CAUSATION. </li></ul><ul><li>Cause </li></ul><ul><li>A factor that directly causes a change. </li></ul>