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India Smartphone Outlook for 2012 by Convergence Catalyst


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This report analysis the Indian Smartphone Market trends for 2011 and provides the outlook for 2012.

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India Smartphone Outlook for 2012 by Convergence Catalyst

  1. 1. India Smartphone Outlook for 2012 12th February, 2012
  2. 2. Over 9 mn smartphones have been sold in India in 2011, with Nokialeading the market 2011 India Smartphone Market Share of Various OEMs (by Units) 46.8% 100% 27.4% 13.3% 4.3% 4.2% 0.5% 0.6% 2.4% 0.5% Total Nokia! Samsung! Blackberry! HTC! Sony LG! Motorola! Apple! Others! Market! Ericsson!•  As per Convergence Catalyst estimates about 9 mn to 9.5 mn smartphones have been sold in India in 2011•  For the first time, monthly smartphone sales crossed the 1 million mark in the month of October, 2011•  Smartphones have also breached the USD 100 price point, with a few Android based devices being launched in the market in last quarter of the year•  Although Nokia had a strong lead in the smartphones segment in the first half of the year, Samsung has been gaining significant market share in the last two quarters•  Indian and Chinese handset OEMs could not replicate their feature phones success in the smartphones segment 2 Sources: CC Analysis, Primary Interviews, Mobile Handsets Import Data, Secondary Research
  3. 3. Although Symbian led the market for most of the year, Android hasbeen growing steadily and gained significant share in Q4, 2011 Operating System Wise Share of Total Smartphone Sales in 2011 46.6% 100% 28.2% 13.3% 8.3% 2.4% 1.2% Total OS Share! Symbian! Android! Blackberry OS! Bada! iOS! Windows Mobile/ Phone!•  Although Symbian led the market for the year (starting with close to 60% share at the beginning of the year), it’s share declined sharply in Q4 to reach sub 40%•  Both Android and Bada gained significant market share in Q4, primarily due to Samsung’s strong momentum in the smartphone segment −  Having started the year with less than 20% share, in Q4, Android’s share grew equal to that of Symbian −  The growth of Android can also be attributed to its availability on multiple devices and its acceptance by the retail channel and the consumers 3 Sources: CC Analysis, Primary Interviews, Mobile Handsets Import Data, Secondary Research
  4. 4. In 2012, we expect the smartphone sales in India to grow by ~100%,due to decreasing ASPs and availability of multiple devices Smartphone Sales in India Forecasts for ASP1-Wise Share of Total (2011 & 2012, mn) Smartphone Sales in 2012 18 – 20 6.5% 17.3% 12.5% 9 – 9.5 100% 25.2% 30.5% 8.0% 2011 2012E Total $251 – $201 – $131 – $101 – Smartphone >$400 <$100 $400 $250 $200 $130 Sales Note 1: ASP – Average Selling Point. We have included logistics, channel margins, inventory costs, etc., which contribute to Market Operating Price (MOP) for our ASP conversion. For this estimate, USD 1 = INR 60, in terms of MOP•  In 2012, Convergence Catalyst estimates the smartphone sales to grow approximately by 100% to range between 18 mn and 20 mn, forming 12% to 14% of total mobile handset sales•  This growth will be primarily driven by wider acceptance of smartphones by Indian consumers and the devices coming down the price curve −  The sub USD 100 (created in Q4 2011) is expected to grow significantly and contribute to 8% of total smartphone sales −  The Indian handset OEMs are expected to revamp their smartphone strategy and launch a number of affordable, Android- based 3G smartphones based on entry level chipsets such as Qualcomm’s MSM 7225A & Mediatek’s MT6573•  Samsung is expected to continue its current, strong momentum (in the smartphone space) in 2012 4 Sources: CC Analysis, Industry Inputs, Nomura – Handsets and Handset Chips (Asia) Report - 2011
  5. 5. Android is expected to overtake Symbian as the leader, garnering morethan 50% market share in 2012 Forecasts for OS-Wise Share of Total Smartphone Sales in 2012 23.3% 100% 50.6% 9.9% 10.2% 2.4% 3.6% Total OS Share! Symbian! Android! Blackberry OS! Bada! iOS! Windows Phone!•  In 2012, share of Android OS is expected to grow significantly based on multiple devices being launched by both domestic and global OEMs, across all price points −  Samsung’s growth and Indian OEMs focus on smartphones is expected to aid Android’s growth•  Nokia offers devices based on both Symbian and Windows Phone operating systems, with Symbian S60 based devices in the low & mid-tier smartphones and Symbian Belle & Windows Phone based devices in the high end −  Nokia is expected to leverage its strong brand equity in India to aggressively drive the price point of it’s Symbian devices in the sub USD 200 segment, to compete effectively with Android and Samsung•  Windows Phone will not be available across price ranges in 2012 unlike Android and is hence not expected to be a major player 5 Sources: CC Analysis, Industry Inputs, Mobile Handsets Import Data, Secondary Research
  6. 6. Key trends in 2012 include emergence of Dual-SIM devices, global OEMsremaining strong in India & carriers experimenting with contract-based offers Key Smartphone Market Trends to be Expected in 2012 Key Trends Description and Analysis Key Players •  Samsung has already launched Dual-SIM smartphones such as Galaxy Pro Duos and Wave Y Duos. Going forward, we expect Samsung to launch Dual-SIM versions of its popular models such as Galaxy Y & S II •  Samsung Emergence of •  Indian Handset •  As Indian OEMs ramp up their smartphone portfolio, they Multiple SIM OEMs such as are expected to bring Dual-SIM capability to their Smartphones Micromax, Spice, smartphones as well Lava, etc •  In the smartphone segment, we expect Dual-SIM devices to support both GSM & CDMA networks, especially in the high end devices •  Global OEMs such as Nokia and Blackberry, which have Global Players to global challenges, meanwhile have a strong brand presence Capitalize on in India •  Nokia Their Strengths •  These brands are expected to leverage their strengths such •  Blackberry in India as strong brand, wide distribution network and consumer affinity to remain as strong players in the Indian market •  In 2011, MTS (Indian CDMA carrier) had launched a Carriers to smartphone (HTC Pulse) on contract, for the first time in •  MTS Continue Indian market, with moderate success. This initiative has •  Idea Experimenting opened up the potential for other players •  RCOM with Contracts for •  This year, we expect few other carriers to experiment with •  Aircel Smartphones this model, on an opportunistic basis, to improve their competitive edge 6 Sources: CC Analysis, Industry Inputs
  7. 7. About Convergence CatalystConvergence Catalyst is a young and nimble Telecom Research and Advisory firm focusing on the Indianmarket. Convergence Catalyst (CC) principals bring decades of relevant experience in the Indian TelecomIndustry. Having been Technocrats, Product Marketeers, Analysts and Business Consultants, they bring akeen insights into the Indian market dynamics. These insights will reflect on this report to help industryplayers base their strategic, operational decisions on the dynamic Smartphone Market.The company offers Market Entry, Business Growth, Product & Service Offerings Strategy Consulting andCustom Research in the Telecom, Media & Technology domains. 7
  8. 8. Thank YouContact Us : Vijay Ramanathan, Jayanth Kolla, Twitter: C_Catalyst