Interactive Climate Change Scenario Planning using CommunityViz and other Low Cost Tools

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  • Interactive Climate Change Scenario Planning using CommunityViz and other Low Cost Tools

    1. 1. Wii Hacks for Participatory Planning<br />Cape Cod: 2030<br />Interactive Climate Change Scenario Planning using CommunityViz and other Low Cost Tools<br />Photo: Henrik Dreisler<br />
    2. 2. Jason Lally<br />Director of the Decision Lab<br />jason@placematters.org<br />Amy Anderson<br />Lead Planning Consultant<br />amy@placeways.com<br />
    3. 3. Volpe Center<br />
    4. 4. Chris Powicki, Water Energy & Ecology Information Services<br />Energy Use (KTOE)<br />Cape & Islands<br />Congo<br />Population<br />Cape & Islands<br />Congo<br />*Figures are for energy consumption only; they do not reflect life-cycle emissions associated with resource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissions attributable to combustion of MSW; emissions from land use; etc. <br />
    5. 5. Rob Thieler,<br />USGS at Woods Hole<br />IPCC AR4<br />A1B envelope<br />(modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007)<br />(modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007)<br />
    6. 6. Rob Thieler,<br />USGS at Woods Hole<br />Bluff erosion<br />Overwash<br />Island Breaching<br />Listed SpeciesImpacts<br />Threshold Crossing<br />Urban Inundation<br />Wetland Loss<br />R. Carlson<br />Water Quality Reduction<br />Ecosystem Change<br />Infrastructure Failure<br />
    7. 7. Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission<br />
    8. 8. Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission<br />8.5 pounds nitrogen*<br />85%**<br />*Average 3-bed home discharge of nitrogen into groundwater per year<br />**Percent of 156,000 homes presently on septic<br />
    9. 9. Cape Cod Pilot Project Phases<br />Beginning Phase<br />Site selection<br />Development of scope of work<br />Formation of planning group and technical committee<br />Data collection<br />Second Phase<br />Expert elicitation on climate change impacts<br />Creation of GHG reduction strategies<br />Consultation RFP; selection of consultant<br />
    10. 10. Cape Cod Pilot Project Phases<br />Workshops<br />Identification and invitation of stakeholders<br />Development of initial and preferred scenarios<br />Follow-up analysis and modeling<br />End Phase<br />Implementation/action plans<br />Guidebook for future implementation<br />
    11. 11. Scenariosfor Land Use and Transportation<br />Cape Cod: 2030<br />Photo: Henrik Dreisler<br />
    12. 12. About scenario planning<br /> Five scenarios<br />
    13. 13. Scenario Planning<br />Uncertain Information<br />Uncertain Outcomes<br />Decision<br />Makers<br />Uncertain Choices<br />The New Yorker Magazine/Zeigler 2004<br />
    14. 14. Cape Cod 2010  2030<br />Indicators<br />Scenarios<br />?<br />Choices,<br />Actions<br />2030<br />2010<br />
    15. 15. It’s a computer. Computers know everything.<br />How do we know what will happen?<br />2. Enough information and good information.<br />?<br />But that’s okay.<br />3. We may be a little off.<br />Choices,<br />Actions<br />
    16. 16. Working with scenarios<br /><ul><li>What do we like, or not?
    17. 17. What’s most important?
    18. 18. What if we make adjustments?
    19. 19. Would it matter if our models changed?</li></ul>Refined Choice<br />
    20. 20. Is and Isn’t<br />Is Good For<br />Education and insights<br />Exploring a wide range of options<br />Understanding trade-offs<br />Directional decisions<br />Isn’t Meant For<br />Forecasting or prediction<br />Engineering-level precision<br />
    21. 21. Scenario Planning Tool<br />placeways<br />®<br />Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001.<br />A project of<br />In partnership with <br />
    22. 22. About scenario planning<br /> Five scenarios<br />
    23. 23. Cape Cod 2010  2030<br />Standard<br />Standard<br />Enhanced<br />Enhanced<br />Dispersed<br />Targeted<br />Pre-run Scenarios<br />Transportation<br />Trend<br />?<br />Development<br />Transportation<br />2030<br />
    24. 24. Sketching Initial Scenarios<br />Purposely extreme<br />Highlight key variables<br />Development patterns<br />Transportation <br />
    25. 25. Growth assumptions for all scenarios<br />20 year horizon: Year 2030<br />+ 28,000 households<br />Average of 2.25 persons per household<br />Year-round population: 221,000  284,000<br />Summer (peak) population: 480,000  543,000<br />All growth is in year-round population<br />+ 16,500 jobs<br />Jobs: 97,000  113,500 <br />
    26. 26. Transportation Choices<br />Standard<br />Enhanced<br />Today plus…<br />Train to Boston<br />1 new bus route<br />Other planned improvements<br />Standard plus…<br />More bus stops<br />Higher frequency<br />Pedestrian and bicycle improvements in dense areas<br />
    27. 27. Workshop Exercises & Techniques<br />Cape Cod: 2030<br />Photo: Henrik Dreisler<br />
    28. 28. CCC staff<br />Town planners<br />Federal agencies<br />
    29. 29.
    30. 30. Choose your top two issues:<br />Water quality and supply<br />Reduce traffic and vehicle miles traveled <br />Access to services and employment<br />Avoid development in hazard areas<br />Reduce the Cape’s greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution<br />Avoid development in critical habitat or conservation areas<br />Protect the integrity of historic preservation districts<br />Increase access to transit and nonmotorized modes<br />
    31. 31. Choose your top two issues:<br />
    32. 32. Concept Mapping<br />
    33. 33.
    34. 34.
    35. 35. LessonsLearned<br />Cape Cod: 2030<br />Photo: Henrik Dreisler<br />
    36. 36. Lessons Learned<br />Things to Improve on<br />More time is better<br />Make sure reliable transportation data on the current and trend exist<br />Periodic status checks are helpful<br />2 facilitators per table<br />1 technical<br />1 discussion leader<br />Test EVERYTHING ahead of time<br />
    37. 37. Lessons Learned<br />Reaffirmed Beliefs<br />Having the live data is invaluable to the process<br />The simpler the interaction, the better<br />Less resolution can be a good thing for regional level<br />Don’t expect to walk away with “the answer” in 1 day<br />People want to get involved<br />
    38. 38. Jason Lally<br />Director of the Decision Lab<br />jason@placematters.org<br />Tw: @theplacematters<br />Tw: @synchronouscity<br />Fb: http://fb.me/placematters<br />Bl: http://blog.placematters.org<br />Amy Anderson<br />Lead Planning Consultant<br />amy@placeways.com<br />W: http://placeways.com<br />W: http://communityviz.com<br />

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