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Cyberwarfare and
aggressiveness in cyberspace
Jarno Limnéll
Professor, Cybersecurity, Aalto University
VP, Cybersecurity, ...
New Normal in Security:
Speed of Change
Unpredictable Instability
Digital-Physical Complexity
Cyber is an element in all crisis and wars
Evolution – not revolution
Cybersabotage has begun to emerge in conflicts
“Cyberattack on German steel plant
caused significant damage”
KINETIC CYBER
“A cyber attack on the French
television netwo...
Russia has a wide range of tools and resources, including the
ability to carry out denial-of-service attacks, develop
soph...
Coordinated December 2015 attack on the Ukrainian electrical
grid was clearly an attack on critical national infrastructur...
OVERALL CYBER CAPABILITIES (scale 1-10 / offense, defense, dependence) *
State Cyber
Offense
Cyber
Defense
Cyber
Dependenc...
Kyberturvallisuuden kokonaisuus
9
Digital security integral part of today´s security:
Dependence increases and
More sophis...
Cybersecurity =
Protecting our societies, our
businesses and our way of life
“Russia and China are the most
sophisticated nation-state actors in
the new generation of cyberwarfare,
and Russian hacker...
Digital-Physical
Interaction
States consider cyber capabilities as an integral part of
operational military capability and are not afraid to
employ the...
Innovation and people
Talented Individuals – Who will have and
educate them in constantly changing security?
Most valuable skills for
cybersecurity career in next
years might not be a focus in
specific technology, but ability
to un...
From Technology- and
Control-centric to
Humancentric Cybersecurity
Future cyberwarfare is less hacking power
grids and mor...
Cyberpolitics
Trend:
The world is moving towards a
greater strategic use of cyber
capabilities
to persuade adversaries to
change their b...
Beginning – End
Our side – Their side
Military – Civilian
Involved – Not-involved
Win – Lose
Violence – Non-violence
Dicho...
1) Defend own networks – improving quality in all member states
2) Increase education and training
3) Raise general cyber ...
Thank you
“It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the
most intelligent, but the ones responsive to change.”
- C...
Cyberwarfare and Aggressiveness in Cyberspace
Cyberwarfare and Aggressiveness in Cyberspace
Cyberwarfare and Aggressiveness in Cyberspace
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Cyberwarfare and Aggressiveness in Cyberspace

The strategic importance of cyberspace is increasing and cyber has become an integral part of all modern wars and conflicts.

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Cyberwarfare and Aggressiveness in Cyberspace

  1. 1. Cyberwarfare and aggressiveness in cyberspace Jarno Limnéll Professor, Cybersecurity, Aalto University VP, Cybersecurity, Insta Group Ltd. Doctor of Military Science @JarnoLim
  2. 2. New Normal in Security: Speed of Change Unpredictable Instability Digital-Physical Complexity
  3. 3. Cyber is an element in all crisis and wars Evolution – not revolution Cybersabotage has begun to emerge in conflicts
  4. 4. “Cyberattack on German steel plant caused significant damage” KINETIC CYBER “A cyber attack on the French television network TV5 Monde” FALSE FLAG ATTACKS “The Dukes: 7 Years of Russian Cyber- Espionage” STRATEGIC CYBER ESPIONAGE “Hackers breach the Warsaw Stock Exchange” CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Russians (and others) are testing the boundaries of the cyberbattlefield.
  5. 5. Russia has a wide range of tools and resources, including the ability to carry out denial-of-service attacks, develop sophisticated malware and exploit previously unknown software vulnerabilities. Russian cyber activities are focused mainly on intelligence gathering and military reconnaissance of critical infrastructure networks as advance work for a future conflict.” Most worryingly, today’s intelligence operations enable tomorrow’s military actions.
  6. 6. Coordinated December 2015 attack on the Ukrainian electrical grid was clearly an attack on critical national infrastructure. Motive? - Testing and research - Creating deterrence (send a public message) - Revenge (power outage earlier in Crimea)
  7. 7. OVERALL CYBER CAPABILITIES (scale 1-10 / offense, defense, dependence) * State Cyber Offense Cyber Defense Cyber Dependence ** Total Iran 4 3 5 12 Estonia 3 8 1 12 Great Britain 7 5 2 14 South Korea 6 5 3 14 North Korea 3 3 9 15 Germany 7 7 2 16 Israel 8 6 3 17 United States 10 5 2 17 China 8 5 4 17 Russia 8 8 3 19 * Analysis is based on information in different public sources * Dependence is a reverse score (more dependent means more vulnerable) Jarno Limnéll
  8. 8. Kyberturvallisuuden kokonaisuus 9 Digital security integral part of today´s security: Dependence increases and More sophisticated capabilities being developed. The speed of cyber attacks and their sophistication has changed dramatically.
  9. 9. Cybersecurity = Protecting our societies, our businesses and our way of life
  10. 10. “Russia and China are the most sophisticated nation-state actors in the new generation of cyberwarfare, and Russian hackers lead in terms of sophistication, programming power and inventiveness.”
  11. 11. Digital-Physical Interaction
  12. 12. States consider cyber capabilities as an integral part of operational military capability and are not afraid to employ them. How to integrate cyber capabilities to other capabilities
  13. 13. Innovation and people
  14. 14. Talented Individuals – Who will have and educate them in constantly changing security?
  15. 15. Most valuable skills for cybersecurity career in next years might not be a focus in specific technology, but ability to understand big picture.
  16. 16. From Technology- and Control-centric to Humancentric Cybersecurity Future cyberwarfare is less hacking power grids and more "hacking minds" by shaping environment in which political reality takes place.
  17. 17. Cyberpolitics
  18. 18. Trend: The world is moving towards a greater strategic use of cyber capabilities to persuade adversaries to change their behavior.
  19. 19. Beginning – End Our side – Their side Military – Civilian Involved – Not-involved Win – Lose Violence – Non-violence Dichotomies are blurring SECURITY INSECURITY The lines between cyber activists, criminals and state-paid hackers are becoming increasingly blurred.
  20. 20. 1) Defend own networks – improving quality in all member states 2) Increase education and training 3) Raise general cyber resilience to new level 4) Mindset-change: J6  J3 (plans and operations) 5) Develop situational awareness and information sharing 6) Strenghten Alliance´s cyber deterrence 7) Support cyber innovations (defence, intel, offense) 8) Combine cyber and physical capabilities and operations 9) Rethink Article 5 10) Cyberpolitics – to response Russia´s aggressive behavior in cyber domain Jarno Limnéll
  21. 21. Thank you “It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones responsive to change.” - Charles Darwin

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