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McAfee Confidential
.
Jarno Limnéll | Director of Cyber Security
Professor of Cyber Security in Aalto University
Doctor ...
“We are about three warm meals
away from anarchy/revolution?”
Security FEELING
RESILIENCEREALITY
FEELING:
HOW (SECURE) DO WE FEEL?
REALITY:
HOW THINGS REALLY ARE?
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT –
PHYSICAL AND DIGITAL
– IS MORE UNCERTAIN, DYNAMIC AND
MORE DEMANDING THAN EVER
RESILIENCE:
HOW WE WITHSTAND PHYSICALLY AND MENTALLY
INSECURITY – HOW DO WE VALUE OUR SECURITY?
Complete security is a myth,
Known – Unknown threats
Instead of (only) building walls,
”Defense in depth”
Ability to change
and resilience
create security.
Not constancy.
Security under the Cyber Dome
The Digital world is effecting everywhere
Everybody and
everything is
becoming
CONNECTED
Dependence
14
THE DIGITAL WORLD OF BITS
DIGITAL AND PHYSICAL BLUR
Returningbackto “typewritersage”?
No. But securityistaken(hopefully)more serious.
The digital world is everywhere.
So must be Security.
Like whisked egg in the cake.
There is no issue so important in security –
which remains so poorly understood…
Cybersecurity is primarily a strategic issue
GUIDANCE
The importance of combining technological
and strategic thinking
-
both are needed in order to have
comprehensive approach...
Cyber conflict?
“Cyberwar” should be used carefully…
…not separated from the context of War
Cyber is already and will be an element of all cris
we’re going to see in the future
"Every age has its
own kind of war,
its own limiting
conditions
and its own peculiar
preconceptions.”
Carl von Clausewitz
...
IN THE SHADOWS,
3 levels of cyber activities
Lower level cyber activities
Digital information “war”
Strategic cyber attacks
US Department of Defense’s
3 types of Cyber threats:
27
Lack of precedents,
Cyber playbook is pretty
empty (at the moment)
THE FIFTH DOMAIN
or penetrating all levels and dimensions?
LAND SEA
SPACEAIR
CYBER
Cyber needs to be considered as part of
broader military strategy
Strategic challenges
How integrate Cyber to other military
operations and broader concept?
Outsourcing Cyber attacks – how...
NATO – Cyber – Article 5
Threat,
Resources
1. Cyberattacks, cyber-espionage
2. Counterintelligence
3. Terrorism
4. WMD Profiliferation
5. Counterspace
DefenseNews Leadership Poll,
January 2014
Threat evaluation
WHO (actor/condition) produces the threat?
WHY (motivation)?
How serious is the IMPACT?
Cyber arms
race
Accelerating
NOT ONLY NATION-STATES
There are 20 to 30 cybercrime groups that have
nation-state level capacity
“You are the cyber-war
agents and get yourself
ready for such war
wholeheartedly.”
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Kha...
“We don't need more tanks,
we need the latest in cyber
warfare.”
UK Prime Minister David Cameron
“U.S. Cyber Command will
...
The world is moving towards a
greater strategic use of cyber
to persuade adversaries to
change their behavior.
Capability ...
What restraints the use of strategic cyber
capabilities?
Unpredictable side-effects
Do not expose capabilities
Possible es...
Resources are needed, but in cyber big brains are
more important than big brawn…
5 Strategic Trends
to Follow
1
The Role of
Cyber Espionage
WHO’S SPYING ON WHOM?
Does intelligence
collection or cyber
reconnaissance become
an act of war?
2
Measuring
Cyber
Capabilities
Level of Cyber
capabilities?
SUSPICION
Digital dependence - Defensive
Informational - Intelligence
Offensive capabilities
Resilience (physical, mental)
R&D and i...
3
Grey area
Beginning – End
Our side – Their side
Military – Civilian
Involved – Not-involved
Win – Lose
Violence – Non-violence
Hardw...
4
Cyber
Deterrence
ELEMENTS OF
CYBER
DETERRENCE
RESILIENCE
ATTRIBUTION
OFFENSE
Countries will expose
offensive cyber capabilities
more openly – because of
deterrence
5
Cyber Peace
THE TREND IS OFFENSIVE
The main question is not how to get rid of it
but how to live with it!
The most
important
question in
(cyber)
security?
TRUST
On the road to distrust?
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Internet
becomes a mass
phenomenon
WEB 2.0
is born
JOURNEY FRO...
Are we the last generation to take
joy from the global Internet?
The internet has changed the
way we change our world
Security - Privacy
CYBER SECURITY IS BECOMING MORE PERSONAL
67
It is a right to get work email on
a personally owned device
What is already out there?
THANK YOU!
jarno_limnell@mcafee.com
Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check
Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check
Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check
Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check
Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check
Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check
Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check
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Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check

It is time for reality check in Cyber Conflicts and Cyber Warfare.

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Cyber Conflicts - Time for Reality Check

  1. 1. . McAfee Confidential . Jarno Limnéll | Director of Cyber Security Professor of Cyber Security in Aalto University Doctor of Military Science Twitter: @JarnoLim Cyber Conflicts – Time for Reality Check
  2. 2. “We are about three warm meals away from anarchy/revolution?”
  3. 3. Security FEELING RESILIENCEREALITY
  4. 4. FEELING: HOW (SECURE) DO WE FEEL?
  5. 5. REALITY: HOW THINGS REALLY ARE?
  6. 6. SECURITY ENVIRONMENT – PHYSICAL AND DIGITAL – IS MORE UNCERTAIN, DYNAMIC AND MORE DEMANDING THAN EVER
  7. 7. RESILIENCE: HOW WE WITHSTAND PHYSICALLY AND MENTALLY INSECURITY – HOW DO WE VALUE OUR SECURITY?
  8. 8. Complete security is a myth, Known – Unknown threats Instead of (only) building walls, ”Defense in depth”
  9. 9. Ability to change and resilience create security. Not constancy.
  10. 10. Security under the Cyber Dome The Digital world is effecting everywhere
  11. 11. Everybody and everything is becoming CONNECTED Dependence
  12. 12. 14 THE DIGITAL WORLD OF BITS DIGITAL AND PHYSICAL BLUR
  13. 13. Returningbackto “typewritersage”? No. But securityistaken(hopefully)more serious.
  14. 14. The digital world is everywhere. So must be Security. Like whisked egg in the cake.
  15. 15. There is no issue so important in security – which remains so poorly understood…
  16. 16. Cybersecurity is primarily a strategic issue GUIDANCE
  17. 17. The importance of combining technological and strategic thinking - both are needed in order to have comprehensive approach to cybersecurity, its threats and solutions
  18. 18. Cyber conflict?
  19. 19. “Cyberwar” should be used carefully… …not separated from the context of War
  20. 20. Cyber is already and will be an element of all cris we’re going to see in the future
  21. 21. "Every age has its own kind of war, its own limiting conditions and its own peculiar preconceptions.” Carl von Clausewitz Continuation of politics by other means, incl. cyber means in ”policy toolbox”
  22. 22. IN THE SHADOWS, 3 levels of cyber activities Lower level cyber activities Digital information “war” Strategic cyber attacks
  23. 23. US Department of Defense’s 3 types of Cyber threats:
  24. 24. 27 Lack of precedents, Cyber playbook is pretty empty (at the moment)
  25. 25. THE FIFTH DOMAIN or penetrating all levels and dimensions? LAND SEA SPACEAIR CYBER
  26. 26. Cyber needs to be considered as part of broader military strategy
  27. 27. Strategic challenges How integrate Cyber to other military operations and broader concept? Outsourcing Cyber attacks – how to respond? The problem of attribution – who is your enemy?
  28. 28. NATO – Cyber – Article 5
  29. 29. Threat, Resources
  30. 30. 1. Cyberattacks, cyber-espionage 2. Counterintelligence 3. Terrorism 4. WMD Profiliferation 5. Counterspace
  31. 31. DefenseNews Leadership Poll, January 2014
  32. 32. Threat evaluation WHO (actor/condition) produces the threat? WHY (motivation)? How serious is the IMPACT?
  33. 33. Cyber arms race Accelerating
  34. 34. NOT ONLY NATION-STATES There are 20 to 30 cybercrime groups that have nation-state level capacity
  35. 35. “You are the cyber-war agents and get yourself ready for such war wholeheartedly.” Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “Cyber will soon be revealed to be the biggest revolution in warfare, more than gunpowder and the utilization of air power in the last century.”Major General Aviv Kochavi, IDF
  36. 36. “We don't need more tanks, we need the latest in cyber warfare.” UK Prime Minister David Cameron “U.S. Cyber Command will number more than 6,000 people by 2016, making it one of the largest such - forces in the world.”US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel
  37. 37. The world is moving towards a greater strategic use of cyber to persuade adversaries to change their behavior. Capability and will.
  38. 38. What restraints the use of strategic cyber capabilities? Unpredictable side-effects Do not expose capabilities Possible escalation
  39. 39. Resources are needed, but in cyber big brains are more important than big brawn…
  40. 40. 5 Strategic Trends to Follow
  41. 41. 1 The Role of Cyber Espionage
  42. 42. WHO’S SPYING ON WHOM?
  43. 43. Does intelligence collection or cyber reconnaissance become an act of war?
  44. 44. 2 Measuring Cyber Capabilities
  45. 45. Level of Cyber capabilities? SUSPICION
  46. 46. Digital dependence - Defensive Informational - Intelligence Offensive capabilities Resilience (physical, mental) R&D and innovation capabilities Doctrine, Policy A country’s cyber military strength can be judged by six capabilities:
  47. 47. 3 Grey area
  48. 48. Beginning – End Our side – Their side Military – Civilian Involved – Not-involved Win – Lose Violence – Non-violence Hardware – Software
  49. 49. 4 Cyber Deterrence
  50. 50. ELEMENTS OF CYBER DETERRENCE RESILIENCE ATTRIBUTION OFFENSE
  51. 51. Countries will expose offensive cyber capabilities more openly – because of deterrence
  52. 52. 5 Cyber Peace
  53. 53. THE TREND IS OFFENSIVE The main question is not how to get rid of it but how to live with it!
  54. 54. The most important question in (cyber) security?
  55. 55. TRUST
  56. 56. On the road to distrust? 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Internet becomes a mass phenomenon WEB 2.0 is born JOURNEY FROM THE WORLD OF ATOMS TO THE WORLD OF BITS We are here We choose either LEADERSHIP or CRISIS… 2014 The zone of distrust The zone of trust Familiar, accepted norms Old norms are adjusted to cope with the “brave new world” The need for new norms and ways of thinking
  57. 57. Are we the last generation to take joy from the global Internet? The internet has changed the way we change our world
  58. 58. Security - Privacy
  59. 59. CYBER SECURITY IS BECOMING MORE PERSONAL
  60. 60. 67 It is a right to get work email on a personally owned device
  61. 61. What is already out there?
  62. 62. THANK YOU! jarno_limnell@mcafee.com

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    Jan. 12, 2015

It is time for reality check in Cyber Conflicts and Cyber Warfare.

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