The
Winners
Losers
in the move to
Real-Time Cloud
Communications
Structure
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

2

The Facts

Why do we need APIs?
Why all the big numbers?
Mapping the Cloud Communications API ...
No developed market telco
has successfully engaged
mobile application
developers with Telecom
APIs
BUT Telecom API
successes have come from
using APIs internally
AND Telecom API
successes have come from
using APIs with existing
partners
APIs reduce business friction.
This means the value is not ‘in
the API’ it’s in the service or
data delivered through the ...
Mobile Application Developers
ONLY care about direct access to
a large engaged customer base
that is prepared to pay.
Appl...
Revenue

This is the Most Important Slide in the Pack

Internal Telco Developers
Partner Developers
Telecom App Developers...
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?
Developers that recognize
they build telecom apps
today
Hardcore
Telco Software
...
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?

Hardcore
Telco Software
Infrastructure
(10ks)

Developers that recognize
they b...
What is an API?
•

http://www.telco.com/api.php?action=remove_friction

APIs reduce business friction by making it easy fo...
Why do we need Telecom APIs?
Why do we need a
Web site?

1995

Of course we have
a Web site

2000

2005

New distribution
...
Show me the money? graphic
Where’s the Money in External APIs?
$244B by 2017

$157B by 2018

$18B in 2016

Mobile payments revenue, source BI
Intelli...
What if a Telco does nothing?
Telco becomes the “path of last
resort” as apps use “easy and
economical” APIs for 90% of
co...
Mapping vendors across the API landscape
Informational APIs
(e.g. customer profile)

Developer
Community

API Publishers
T...
Mapping vendors across the API landscape
Informational APIs

Transactional APIs

Developer
Community
Developer
Portal

Api...
Where are External Telco APIs going?
•

External Telecom API Roadmap
o

Payments: whether to expand beyond digital downloa...
Customers

Services
1-3.3%

0-2%
Threats to Revenue
5.5 to 9%
Over the Top Messaging
hits SMS growth

3 to 4%
Mobile substitution of fixed
bro...
Make Telecoms an Essential Spice for every Business Recipe
Do more VAS!
Revenue

Telecom Application Developer Ecosystem

Internal Telco Developers
Partner Developers
Telecom App Developers
Mobi...
What do we mean by Telecom App Developer?

Hardcore
Telco Software
Infrastructure
(10ks)

Developers that recognize
they b...
No Gatekeeper
Focus
Motivation
www.tadsummit.com
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The winners and losers in the move to the Real-Time Cloud Communications

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The winners and losers in the move to the Real-Time Cloud Communications

  1. 1. The Winners Losers in the move to Real-Time Cloud Communications
  2. 2. Structure • • • • • • • 2 The Facts Why do we need APIs? Why all the big numbers? Mapping the Cloud Communications API landscape Where to Focus? Where is the Telecom Application Developer Ecosystems going? Who are the winners and losers? © 2010 Alan Quayle Business and Service Development
  3. 3. No developed market telco has successfully engaged mobile application developers with Telecom APIs
  4. 4. BUT Telecom API successes have come from using APIs internally
  5. 5. AND Telecom API successes have come from using APIs with existing partners
  6. 6. APIs reduce business friction. This means the value is not ‘in the API’ it’s in the service or data delivered through the API.
  7. 7. Mobile Application Developers ONLY care about direct access to a large engaged customer base that is prepared to pay. Apple and Android fulfill this need, Telcos are IRRELEVANT
  8. 8. Revenue This is the Most Important Slide in the Pack Internal Telco Developers Partner Developers Telecom App Developers Mobile App Developers Long Tail Developers Product
  9. 9. What do we mean by Telecom App Developer? Developers that recognize they build telecom apps today Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure (10ks) IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms) ‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on app platforms (10Ms) All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
  10. 10. What do we mean by Telecom App Developer? Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure (10ks) Developers that recognize they build telecom apps tomorrow IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms) ‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on app platforms (10Ms) All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
  11. 11. What is an API? • http://www.telco.com/api.php?action=remove_friction APIs reduce business friction by making it easy for software systems to work together using existing well understood web technology that any IT person can understand
  12. 12. Why do we need Telecom APIs? Why do we need a Web site? 1995 Of course we have a Web site 2000 2005 New distribution Accelerate internal projects Upsell Innovation Why do we need an API? 2010 Device and mobile support Operational efficiency Make churn harder Extend products / services Of course we have an API Increase footprint Partner opportunities Process automation New business Telecoms is the ‘vital spice’ of any successful business ecosystem
  13. 13. Show me the money? graphic
  14. 14. Where’s the Money in External APIs? $244B by 2017 $157B by 2018 $18B in 2016 Mobile payments revenue, source BI Intelligence. Includes Apple, Android, Square, Visa Mobile, etc. Total Telecom API revenue, source Mind Commerce. Payment, Communications, Identity, Cloud, etc. Alan Quayle’s view is the revenues will be $18B and dominated by payment and communication service revenues by 2016 Juniper predicts DCB (Direct Carrier Billing) growing from $2.5B in 2012 to $13B in 2017 (this assumes only digital downloads, not goods and services)
  15. 15. What if a Telco does nothing? Telco becomes the “path of last resort” as apps use “easy and economical” APIs for 90% of comms Easy and Economical 90% Global comms clouds Applications Laggards 10% Telco Customers
  16. 16. Mapping vendors across the API landscape Informational APIs (e.g. customer profile) Developer Community API Publishers Tropo, Twilio, etc. Developer Portal API Management Transactional APIs e.g. call control API Management (including API Security) Intel Software (Mashery), CA (Layer 7), Apigee API Services Network Gateway Cloud / BOSS Assets IT / Service Assets Network Assets IMS Assets
  17. 17. Mapping vendors across the API landscape Informational APIs Transactional APIs Developer Community Developer Portal Apigee, Intel (Mashery), Layer 7 (CA), SOA Software, 3Scale, IBM, Open Source API Management API Services Intel (Aepona), Ericsson, Huawei, Oracle, Open Source Network Gateway Cloud / BOSS Assets IT / Service Assets 2600Hz, Aculab, Apidaze, Bandwidth, hSenid Mobile, OnMobile, OpenCloud, Plivo, Restcomm, Solaiemes, TelAPI, Tropo, Twilio, etc. Network Assets IMS Assets
  18. 18. Where are External Telco APIs going? • External Telecom API Roadmap o Payments: whether to expand beyond digital downloads o Communications: across all VAS not just calls – RCS, messaging, number provision, WebRTC, etc. • Focus on building a businesses around the APIs rather than publish and wishful thinking o Sales, marketing, business development and critically support o Traditional transition from tech-focus to business-focus
  19. 19. Customers Services
  20. 20. 1-3.3% 0-2% Threats to Revenue 5.5 to 9% Over the Top Messaging hits SMS growth 3 to 4% Mobile substitution of fixed broadband with LTE 0 to 2% OTT substitution, saturation, competition -5 to -7% Mobile and OTT substitution Mobile Data ($275B) Fixed Data ($275B) Mobile Voice ($615B) Fixed Voice ($325B) 3-6% Regulated Services ($1.5T) + Unregulated Services ($650B) Total Telecoms Services ($2.15T) = Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle There’s just 2 things we need to focus on
  21. 21. Make Telecoms an Essential Spice for every Business Recipe
  22. 22. Do more VAS!
  23. 23. Revenue Telecom Application Developer Ecosystem Internal Telco Developers Partner Developers Telecom App Developers Mobile App Developers Long Tail Developers Product
  24. 24. What do we mean by Telecom App Developer? Hardcore Telco Software Infrastructure (10ks) Developers that recognize they build telecom apps tomorrow IT/Web Programmers building on FOSS, telecom app platforms and telecom APIs (1Ms) ‘Cut and Paste’ web developers using web-scripting and graphical tools on app platforms (10Ms) All based on IT / Web Technologies and Development Principles
  25. 25. No Gatekeeper Focus Motivation
  26. 26. www.tadsummit.com

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