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JBMC-NIIGATA Session October 14, 2017

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Japan Business Model Competition-NIIGATA (JBMC-NIIGATA)
ビジネスモデル特別セッション
「How to prepare for JBMC」English
(2017年10月14日 国際大学にて)

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JBMC-NIIGATA Session October 14, 2017

  1. 1. 2018 Japan Business Model Competition October14, 2017 JBMC Executive Committee Member Waseda University International University of Japan Dr. Takeru Ohe (C) Takeru Ohe 1 17/10/16
  2. 2. Dr. Takeru Ohe JBMC Executive Committee He sits on the boards of Cognex Japan K.K., a machine vision manufacturer, and ConsulFng OASIS K.K., a consulFng firm specializing in new business development. He taught Entrepreneurship at Waseda University, Business School and served as managing director of the Waseda University IncubaFon Center. Currently he serves as an advisor to Research PromoFon Division of Waseda University and visiFng professor at the InternaFonal University of Japan. Ph.D. in Experimental Physics from the University of Maryland and MBA from Columbia University Graduate School of Business. Dr. Ohe has iniFated various successful projects: “Born ASEAN” project, ConsulFng Based Learning for ASEAN SMEs program, Teaching IncubaFon Center Project at Waseda University. Waseda Venture Kids program and etc. (C) Takeru Ohe 2 17/10/16
  3. 3. Table of Contents Uncertainty and experient Management of AssumpFons InternaFonal Business Model CompeFFon Japan Business Model CompeFFon How to prepare for Japan Business Model CompeFFon
  4. 4. 1. Uncertainty and Experiment (Background of BMC) 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 4
  5. 5. Uncertainty for New Business 1.  There is uncertainty for any business due to being in the uncertain world. 2.  There is addiFonal uncertainty for any new business since there are many unknown for startups. ! To promote a new business, you must deal with uncertainty and take advantage of the uncertain environment. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 5
  6. 6. How to compete: the wave of transient advantage of uncertainty world R e t u r n 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 6 The End of CompeFFve Advantage (P13) Rita Gunther McGrath, HBRP 2012 Launch Ramp up Exploit Reconfigure Disengage
  7. 7. How to compete: the wave of transient advantage of uncertainty world R e t u r n 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 7 The End of CompeFFve Advantage (P13) Rita Gunther McGrath, HBRP 2012 Launch Ramp up Exploit Reconfigure Disengage
  8. 8. 1985-2012 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 8
  9. 9. Definition of New Business Modified Ansoff Matrix 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 9 Diversifica8on Market Development Product Development Market Penetra8on We know market            We do not know market We do not know Product We know product
  10. 10. Types of Assumptions 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  10 ー ー Quantifiable InternalassumptionExternalassumptions assumption CanbecontrolledCannotbecontrolled Vision Mission Business policy Production quantity Sales force Selling price Market price Growth rate Competitor's price Social trend Trend Change in legislation Cannot be quantified Can be quantified
  11. 11. Accuracy of Quantifiable Assumptions 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 11 AssumpFons Items Accuracy Internal AssumpFons Development cost Development period 70% External AssumpFons Market price New product introducFon Market share 30%
  12. 12. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  12 Experiment: Accuracy of Assumptions •  Park vendor: gic items such as poster cards, candles at Inogashira Park in Tokyo •  The parFcipants of the experiment were asked to make 30 assumpFons mainly markeFng four P: product, place, price, promoFon Participants Accuracy Businessmen Max 30% Average 20% Students Max 15% Average 10%
  13. 13. Baseball Statistics 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 13 Hidng Average 30% Ball Control 70%
  14. 14. Experimental Methodology for Business Management As experimental physics has led to the advancement of physics, "experimental management” can lead to the development of Business management. "Experimental management" which was developed for new business must be applied at once to the main lines of the company due to uncertainty in the ultra-compeFFve world. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 14
  15. 15. Experimenting Five skills of disrupFve innovators New ideas are ocen created during verifying ideas, business concepts and business models through experiments and prototypes. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 15 Associate, QuesFoning, Observing, Networking, Experiment
  16. 16. Five Skills •  1 - Associate. Innovators associate previously unconnected things to come up with products or ideas. Innovators apply ideas from completely different areas to their field. 2 - QuesFoning. clearly nothing happens unless someone quesFons things. “QuesFon the UnquesFonable” Ratan Tata - Tata Group 3 - Observing. “ObservaFon is the biggest game changer” - Scok Cook - founder of Intuit. Obviously learning is greatest when things are observed. 4 - Networking. Again, a key skill for any innovator. 5 - Experiment. This, for me, would be summed up by my Fail Ocen, Fail Fast, Fail Cheap. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 16
  17. 17. 2. Management of Assumptions 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 17
  18. 18. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  18 Assumptions •  One of the greatest difficulFes in considering new opportuniFes, is managing what we know versus what we assume to be true. •  Statements of fact are statements for which we are able to provide verificaFon. •  An assumpFon is a statement of fact for which it is not possible to provide verificaFon, because the data is not available. •  A key aspect of opportunity evaluaFon and selecFon is managing the raFo of knowledge (factual statements, supported by data) to assumpFons (statements that need to be proven true or false). •  It is important to change “qualitaFve statements” to “quanFtaFve statements” to check whether they are right or not. Discovery Driven Growth Rita Gunther McGrath and Ian C. MacMillan 2009 HBS
  19. 19. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  19     •  AssumpFons can be checked quanFtaFvely: •  The 50% of Children’s goods sold are less than $5. •  More than 50% visitors accept used children’s merchandise. •  A shop is larger than 300 m₂, and it is enough to carry more than 1000 items. •  A large shop specialized in children’s goods is very akracFve. •  Main goods are brand-name children’s clothes (and baby goods). •  The purchase amount per customer is around $ 50. •  Turnout per month is 5,000 people. •  An area within a 30-minute ride is a trading zone. “Statements which you can check quantitatively” are useful as assumptions
  20. 20. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  20     • It 's hard to verify vague statements: •  If the customers purchase low-priced children’s goods, they are interested in used goods. •  A clean and spacious sales floor and lot of variety of merchandise are important. •  A large shop specialized in children’s goods can akract customers. •  AkracFve products are brand-name children’s clothes and baby goods •  Purchase amount per customer is large. •  Turnout per month is large. •  Even train ride area can be the commercial area. “Statements which you can not check” are not useful as assumptions
  21. 21. Assumption Test Card ITEMS Remarks 1 Test No. 2 AssumpFon 3 Metric 4 Test 5 Data 6 ValidaFon 7 Period 8 Expense 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  21 (Reference) Value ProposiFon Design Alex Osterwalder, etc. 2014
  22. 22. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  22 Ratio of Knowledge to Assumptions In the development of your offering to capitalize on a recognized opportunity, the raFo of knowledge to assumpFons is very low in the early stages (concept development). As the project progresses, we learn more and more, and the raFo of knowledge to assumpFons increases.
  23. 23. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  23 Turning Assumptions to Knowledge To be an existing business (10:90) New business (90:10) Turning assumptions to knowledge Amountofknowledge90% Amount of assumptions 90%
  24. 24. Six Stages of New Business Development 1 Intui8ve Idea 2 Business Idea 3 Business Concept 4 Business Model 5 Business Plan 6 Scale Up Search R&D Theme Documente d Theme R&D Ini8al Experiment al Model Minimal Func8onal Model Commerci aliza8on Model Produc8on Model Uncertainty level Development level Stage
  25. 25. Where are you in new business development stages? Milestones Status (〇 for Yes) 1 Did you have a written business concept (who has the problem, what is the problem, what is your solution, and what is value proposition) 2 Did you meet with people who have the problems? 3 Did you identify key problem which people have? 4 Did you have a solution to the problem? 5 Did you meet experts in this field? 6 Did you build a minimum viable product? 7 Did you identify competitive products/services? 8 Did you have a written business model on canvas? 9 Did you pivot already your initial business model? 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  25
  26. 26. Key Failure Factor •  These are assumpFons which influence the failure of the business. If these assumpFons were wrong, you need to stop the project or to pivot the project. •  They affect many elements of the project. •  They have the greatest effect on outcomes. •  They make or break basic feasibility: If they are wrong, you can’t delivery the business. •  Key Failure Factors are different for different business models. Examples are: •  CompeFtors‘s acquisiFon of strong Intellectual properFes •  Lack of key raw materials such as rare metals •  The market price 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe 26
  27. 27. 17/10/16(C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  27 Importance of Key Failure Factor •  The concept of Key Failure Factor is suited for the experimental management, or the lean startup  method. •  Key Failure Factor is more important than Key Successful Factor in new business development.
  28. 28. Relationship: Business Concept and BMC 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe 28 Key Partners   Key AcFviFes   Value Pro- posi8ons   Customer RelaFonships   Customer Segments   Key Resources Solu8ons   Channels   Cost Structure   Revenue Streams   Business Concept
  29. 29. “Business Concept” is a group of the most important assumptions The most important assumpFons of your new business are “customer segment,” “value proposiFon,” and your “soluFon” to the “problems” which the customer segment has. These assumpFons are grouped together to form a “business concept”. These assumpFons must be checked in the first phase of the business development to be successful. Once one of the assumpFons of this concept was found to be incorrect, then the concept itself is required to be modified or pivoted or given up enFrely. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  29
  30. 30. 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  30 A business concept has clear answers to the following questions Who has problems? What kind of problems do they have? What is your soluFon to the problems? Why do they buy your soluFon (value proposiFon) ?
  31. 31. 3. International Business Model Competition IBMC: http:// www.businessmodelcompetition.com/ general-information.html
  32. 32. IBMC Founders, Host Schools, Judges The IBMC is currently co-hosted by Brigham Young University, Harvard University, and Stanford University. 2013 Host - Harvard University 2014 Host - Brigham Young University 2015 Host - Brigham Young University 2016 Host – Microsoc 2017 Host – Computer History Museum The Founders: Nathan Furr (Ph.D., Stanford; Entrepreneurship Professor, BYU) Steve Blank (Entrepreneurship Professor, UC Berkley; Lecturer, Stanford) John Richards (Entrepreneurship Professor, BYU) Scok Petersen (Director, Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology, BYU) The judges of the 2017 IBMC hkp://www.businessmodelcompeFFon.com/2017- ibmc-judges.html 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 32
  33. 33. Business Model CompeFFon is different from Business plan contest hkp://www.businessmodelcompeFFon.com/model-vs-plan.html 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 33
  34. 34. Business Model Competition evaluates the process of checking of assumptions Business Model Compe88on (BMC) •  The objecFve is to help start the business •  Most of Fme spent meeFng potenFal customers or searching markets •  Customer segmentaFon •  Value proposiFons •  The most important thing is revenues •  The simple profit statement is good enough Business Plan Contest  (BPC) •  The objecFve is to write an elaborate and logical plan •  Most of hours are spent in front of the PC to get secondary data •  A lot of Fme is spent to prepare financial statements (C) Takeru Ohe 34 17/10/16
  35. 35. JUDGING CRITERIA http://www.businessmodelcompetition.com/judges-scorecard.html Hypothesis 1. Did the team use the Business Model Canvas or similar tool to idenFfy and track hypotheses? 2. Did the team clearly state their hypotheses (assumpFons)? 3. Did the team idenFfy the most crucial assumpFons to test first (the ones that will kill their business)? (key failure factor) Test 4. Did the team design, low cost, rapid, but reliable tests of these hypotheses? 5. Did the team conduct the tests in a reliable manner? •  Number of tests - # should be adjusted for industry, product type (web vs physical product), and business type (B2B vs B2C) •  Quality of tests - interviews are high quality, surveys & focus groups are much lower quality (you don’t know which quesFons to ask) unless interviews have been conducted first 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 35
  36. 36. Result 6. Did the team clearly state what they learned, how it validated an assumpFon or not, and if that informed any changes/pivots? 7. If changes were made, was the pivot the team made to support by evidence or did they fail to pivot when the evidence clearly stated it? 8. If appropriate, has the team developed a prototype or minimum viable product (MVP)? Does the team understand the assumpFons they are tested with a prototype or MVP? Is the prototype or MVP appropriate to answer those assumpFons? We want to reward prototypes over full products unless the product is the result of many prototypes tested with customers —in other words, we want to reward tesFng assumpFons before building and building from prototypes up to products. We do not want to reward just building products too early based on untested assumpFons. Other 9. Is the team solving a significant problem (defined in terms of money or impact)?* 10. Does the team have significant evidence that the soluFon is validated (includes lekers of intent, purchase contracts, sales, and partners)?* •  * these two criteria serve as Febreakers •  NOTE: Because web-based businesses are easier to test, these companies can ocen pivot faster. We tend to treat physical products, services, and web/socware as slightly different categories in the judging, then pick the best of these categories to compete. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 36
  37. 37. 4. Japan Business Model Competitions hkp:// www.businessmodelcompeFFon.com/ qualifier-compeFFons.html 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 37
  38. 38. The Japan Business Model Competition (JBMC) •  JBMC was founded in 2013 by •  Prof. Takeru Ohe (Waseda University adviser, IUJ ), •  Dr. Makoto Sarata (ASTEM) •  Mr. Satoshi Okuda (Primestyle) in 2013. •  JBMC is one of feeder compeFFons for IBMC, and the winner of JBMC automaFcally will be sent to the IBMC. •  The 5th Japan Business Model CompeFFon will be held on March 3 (Sat) and 4 (Sun), 2018 hkps://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/? ui=2&ik=22db79abd1&view=ak&th=15ea8f36e8a39967&add=0.1&disp=safe&realadd=f_j7voywck1&z w hkp://japan-bmc.com/index.html hkps://www.facebook.com/japan.bmc info@japan-bmc.com 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 38
  39. 39. 2015 JBMC Finalists 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 39 Business Model University "Dream Pharos" Cloud notebook between parents and nursery Japan Advanced InsFtute of Science and Technology "Next .I " DecoraFon kit for lunch Keio University Tailored health analysis system Tokyo University "Dream Come True" new SNS Keio University Japanese Language and culture lessons through Youtube Waseda University ● Log System for low back pain Kyoto University Customer service system for beauty salons Tokyo University Total hair care system based on gene analysis Tokyo University Assist device system with dispensable actuator Waseda University Social "fidng room" pla•orm InternaFonal University of Japan
  40. 40. 2016 JBMC Finalists 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 40 Business Model University New Found Experience Nagoya Commerce College Homemade Food Delivery- Kokushikann University FLEETANGLE -An Automated & Intelligent Fleet Management System Nagaoka Science & Technology University 1tap diet Kyushu University GOFITURE (Medical Tourism Pla•orm) Osaka University Challenged to Challengers Kyoto University ● Establishing New Food Cycle System by UFlizing Insect Feed Waseda University Maternity Beacon Nagoya Commerce College Super-Cooling Vegetable delivery revoluFon by super-cooling preservaFon Osaka Prefecture University Electric Money Balance Display System Advanced InsFtute of Industrial Technology
  41. 41. 2017 JBMC Finalists 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 41 Business Model University Doctors Crowd Waseda University MBA Tranet Miyazaki University Social Security System Osaka University Histream Kyushu University Campus Life Assistant Gakushuin University Hanoi Recycle Factory (or Hanoi ZStore) InternaFonal University of Japan Efficacy and toxicity evaluaFon service Tsukuba University eYoga Hong Kong Chinese University
  42. 42. 5. How to prepare for the competition 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 42
  43. 43. The JBMC rewards students for: 1.  IdenFfying and tracking key business model hypotheses (use the Business Model Canvas) 2.  TesFng and validaFng those hypotheses with customers (get outside the building) 3.  PivoFng and iteraFng their business model based on customer interacFons •  Submissions for the compeFFon focus on the process and learning a team goes through as they test their unexamined hypotheses in the field and develop validated business models. The goal is validated learning about the business model assumpFons and failing early is a success compared to failing late. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 43
  44. 44. Business Model Canvas Nespresso 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 44
  45. 45. Assumption Test Card Items Note 1 Hypothesis 2 Metric 3 Test Method 4 Data 5 Validate results 6 Period and cost 7 Next AcFon (pivoFng) 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 45 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  46. 46. 2013 Best Business Model “Owlet” http://www.businessmodelcompetition.com/past-winner-videos.html Resource: Value Proposition Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014) The owlet is a wireless monitor measuring your baby's heart rate and oxygen. The data is sent to your smartphone and will alert you if there's an emergency. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 46
  47. 47. Example: Owlet •  IniFal Idea •  Opportunity •  Monitoring pulse oximetry could be easier without the cord between the device and the monitor display •  Our Smart Sock is designed to noFfy you if your baby’s oxygen levels or heart rate fall out of a preset range. hkp://www.businessmodelcompeFFon.com/past- winner-videos.html 17/10/16 (C) Dr. Takeru Ohe  47
  48. 48. Owlet: constant progress with systematic design and testing •  Wireless monitoring of babies' blood oxygen, heart rate and sleep data. •  The owlet is a smartphone compaFble baby monitor. But for added safety and security, Owlet is designed to funcFon independently of your Apple device. The Smart Sock and the Base StaFon connects through low power Bluetooth. If your iOS device dies, or home internet goes out, your Base StaFon will sFll alert you if your baby stops breathing. For convenience, the Base StaFon will upload your infant’s heart rate and oxygen levels to the cloud. You, and anyone with permission, can view your baby’s levels from anywhere in your home, Grandma’s house, or even the office. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 48 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  49. 49. 49 Resource: Value Proposition Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc, Wiley (2014) 4. Customer Relationships 3. Channels 2. Value Propositions 7. Key AcFviFes 6. Key Resources (Intellectual property, Assets) 8. Key Partners 5. Revenue Stream 9. Cost structure Owlet Business Model: version 0 1.  Initial Idea: an opportunity (Monitoring pulse oximetry could be easier without the cord between the device and the monitor display) 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 1. Customer Segments Pulse oximetry monitor Nurses Hospitals Hospitals Salesmen
  50. 50. Test 1A Nurse Interviews Items 1 Hypothesis Wireless pulse oximetry is more convenient 2 Metric Percentage of posiFve feedback 3 Test Interview nurses 4 Data Of 58 interviews, 93 percent prefer the wireless monitoring 5 Validate results Validated 6 Period and cost 1 week, $0 7 Next acFon Interview with hospital manager 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 50 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  51. 51. Test 1B Hospital Administrator Interviews Items 1 Hypothesis Wireless pulse oximetry is more convenient 2 Metric Percentage of posiFve feedback 3 Test Interview hospital feedback 4 Data 0 percent ready to pay more for wireless. Ease of use is not a pain, it not cost effecFve. 5 Validate results Un-validated 6 Period and cost 1 week, $0 7 Next acFon New market segment with this technology idea 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 51 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  52. 52. 52 Resource: Value Proposition Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014) 4. Customer Relationships 3. Channels 2. Value Propositions 7. Key AcFviFes 6. Key Resources (Intellectual property, Assets) 8. Key Partners 5. Revenue Stream 9. Cost structure Owlet Business Model: version 2 Pivot: Change the customer segment from nurses and hospitals to worried parents 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 1. Customer Segments 7. Key AcFviFes 8. Key Partners Baby alarm Parents Baby store < $200 price
  53. 53. Test 2 Parent Interviews Items 1 Hypothesis Parents are ready to adopt and buy a wireless baby alarm 2 Metric Percentage of adopFng parents 3 Test Interview months 4 Data Of 105 interviews, 96 percent adopt the wireless monitoring “Awesome. I want to buy now!” 5 Validate results Validated 6 Period and cost 1 week, $100 7 Next acFon Develop MVP and landing page 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 53 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  54. 54. Test 3 MVP Landing page (minimum viable product) Items 1 Hypothesis A smart sock is convenient and easy to use for monitoring 2 Metric Number of posiFve comments 3 Test An MVP, with a video an a website 4 Data 17,000 views, 5500 shares of facebook, 500 posiFve comments by parents, distributors, and research organizaFons 5 Validate results Validated 6 Period and cost 2 week, $320 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 54 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  55. 55. Test 4 A/B Price test Items 1 Hypothesis Rental versus sale at $200+ sale price 2 Metric Percentage for a sale price 3 Test A/B tesFng, 3 rounds on the website 4 Data 1170 people tested, $299 the best price 5 Validate results Validated 6 Period and cost 8 weeks, $30 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 55 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  56. 56. 56 Resource: Value Proposition Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc, Wiley (2014) 4. Customer Relationships 3. Channels 2. Value Propositions 7. Key AcFviFes 6. Key Resources (Intellectual property, Assets) 8. Key Partners 5. Revenue Stream 9. Cost structure Owlet Business Model: version 3 With a more minimal, less risky product, and infant health tracker (heart rate, oxygen levels, and sleep patterns), but without alarm, for another customer segment; the less worried parents 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 1. Customer Segments 7. Key AcFviFes 8. Key Partners Baby alarm FDA clearance <$200 price Infant health tracker Baby stores Worried parents Less worried parents Baby stores
  57. 57. Test 5 Interview/Proposition: Owlet Challenge Items 1 Hypothesis Less worried parents are ready to adopt and buy a wireless baby health tracker, without alarm 2 Metric Percentage of parents adopFng the no-alarm tracker 3 Test Interview at retail locaFons, having to choose between Owlet tracker and other similar systems (video, sound, and movement) 4 Data Of 81 people interviewed, 20%adopted the Owlet tracker 5 Validate results Validated 6 Period and cost 3 weeks, $0 7 Next acFon 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 57 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  58. 58. Testing step-by-Step •  Your customers are the judge, jury, and execuFoner of your value proposiFon, so get outside of the building and test your ideas with the customer deployment and lean start-up process. Make sure you start with quick and cheap experiments to test the assumpFon underlying your ideas when uncertainty is at its maxim. 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 58 Resource: Value ProposiFon Design, Osterwalder, A. & etc., Wiley (2014)
  59. 59. References 17/10/16 (C) Takeru Ohe 59

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