20110325 wageningen


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  • 11/10/11 Perez KSI-ECST Amsterdam June 2009
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  • 20110325 wageningen

    1. 1. Transition to a sustainable society: challenging but cumbersome Jan Rotmans Wageningen, 25-03-2011 twitter.com/jan_rotmans
    2. 2. Current society is far from sustainable
    3. 3. Persistent problems <ul><li>our society faces a number of persistent problems </li></ul><ul><li>many examples: climate change, energy supply, </li></ul><ul><li>water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care </li></ul><ul><li>persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rooted </li></ul><ul><li>in our societal structures </li></ul><ul><li>regular policy aimed at incremental improvement </li></ul><ul><li>is not enough to resolve persistent problems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>transformative change is needed </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Persistency of mobility system <ul><ul><li>congestion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>victims </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>41.000 victims per year in Europe </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>space use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>75% increase over the last 30 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>pollution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>noise </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> 33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Breakthrough to sustainable society ” Widespread application of new paradigms Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages Battle between old and new paradigm Build up and decay of institutions energy Time Consolidatiion transport fisheries health care agriculture 20 - 30 years Acceleration phase Predevelopment phase 20 – 30 years Tipping Point We are here
    6. 6. crisis from transition perspective <ul><li>three levels of assessment: </li></ul><ul><li>1. financial and banking crisis </li></ul><ul><li>financial supervision and regulation </li></ul><ul><li>2. relations market, government and society </li></ul><ul><li>limited market forces, role of government and citizens </li></ul><ul><li>3. virtues, norms and values </li></ul><ul><li>new economic ordering in light of energy and climate crisis </li></ul><ul><li>moral crisis: window of opportunity </li></ul>
    7. 7. crisis from transition perspective <ul><li>current crisis is a systems crisis </li></ul><ul><li>financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis </li></ul><ul><li>energy crisis and climate crisis yet to come </li></ul><ul><li>systems crisis is deeply rooted in </li></ul><ul><li>production & consumption exhaustion of natural res. </li></ul>
    8. 8. Sustainability Transitions
    9. 9. Transition <ul><ul><li>fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>societal (sub)system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(rules, regulations, collective actors) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>culture: collective set of values, norms, perspective </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(shared orientation), paradigm (defining </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>problems and solutions) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>implementation at the individual level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Examples of transitions <ul><li> internet </li></ul><ul><li>from physical to virtual </li></ul><ul><li>water transition </li></ul><ul><li>from stemming water to accomodating water </li></ul><ul><li>energy transition </li></ul><ul><li>from fossil energy to sustainable energy supply </li></ul><ul><ul><li>health care transition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>from bureaucratic health care to human care </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Transition to Sustainable Society <ul><li>quest to new values </li></ul><ul><li> from to </li></ul><ul><li>welfare happiness </li></ul><ul><li>exploitation cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>linear cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>central decentral </li></ul><ul><li>hierarchy networks </li></ul><ul><li>individuals communities </li></ul><ul><li>directing facilitating </li></ul>
    12. 12. Transition = Power shift <ul><li>regime: dominant structure, culture and practices </li></ul><ul><li> with power and vested interests </li></ul><ul><li>niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at a smaller scale level </li></ul><ul><li>niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that might </li></ul><ul><li>take over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defend </li></ul><ul><li>its existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime </li></ul><ul><li>transition = regime-shift = power shift </li></ul>
    13. 13. Global Power Struggle <ul><ul><li>Obama </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy- </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>economy will become the country that will dominate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the world economy and America must be that country ” </li></ul></ul>
    14. 14. Sustainable Trends
    15. 15. Clean Tech sustainable energy biobased chemical industry sustainable water technology sustainable waste disposal fastest growing industry in the world (10-15% per year) China 35 billion $ in Clean Tech in 2009 VS 18 billion, $ Silicon Valley turns into Clean Tech Valley GB 11 billion $ Netherlands 100 million $…. green revolution unfolding Global Sustainable Dynamics
    16. 16. Global Sustainable Dynamics current worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $ sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 100 million ‘ green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, recycling, services sustainable energy: 20 million new jobs sustainable biomass: 15 million new jobs sustainable construction: 10 million new jobs
    17. 17. Glocalisation ca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Netherlands thousands of sustainability frontrunners: sustainable energy, food, construction, mobility, life style, fashion hundreds of start-ups in the realm of sustainability ca. 300 plans for local energy cooperations bubbling undercurrent Local Sustainable Dynamics
    18. 18. Glocalisation decentral becomes thé trend energy but also food, water, waste, care becomes co-determinant for spatial planning society goest faster than politics can handle companies, organisations, citizens, neighbourhoods politics needs to facilitate this dynamics Local Sustainable Dynamics
    19. 19. Governing Transitions
    20. 20. Transition governance <ul><li>rules of thumb </li></ul><ul><li>long-term thinking as the basis for short term policy </li></ul><ul><li>think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level) </li></ul><ul><li>learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’) </li></ul><ul><li>using uncertainties as a starting point for governance </li></ul><ul><li>keeping options open (wide playing field) </li></ul>
    21. 21. Transition Management <ul><ul><li>principles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>put energy in frontrunners and not in the pack </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>bring frontrunners together in protected spaces </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>start with portfolio of transition experiments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>create new coalitions around pathways & experiments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>searching, learning, experimenting </li></ul></ul>
    22. 22. Transition Management Cycle vision, pathways, transition agenda transition arena transition experiments evaluation, monitoring learning
    23. 23. society Transition arenas Regular policy arena <ul><li>- Short term </li></ul><ul><li>- Peloton </li></ul><ul><li>Incremental change </li></ul><ul><li>Problem- and goal oriented </li></ul><ul><li>- Long term </li></ul><ul><li>- Innovators </li></ul><ul><li>System-innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Problem- and goal searching </li></ul>The transition arena
    24. 24. Sustainability Vision
    25. 30. Stichting Urgenda
    26. 33. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
    27. 34. drijvende wijk/stad
    28. 35. Floating City Dutch Research Institute For Transitions water recreation ecology: wetlands technology: floating foundation energy: decentral heat/cold storage mobility: floating highway, water taxi living / working units
    29. 36. Transition Agenda for the Netherlands
    30. 37. Transition Agenda investing in sustainable innovation investing in strategic niches built environment sustainable energy biobased economy electric mobility facilitating role of the government
    31. 38. Transition Agenda revival of the manufacturing industry climate adaptation / sustainability floating cities, green chemistry, C2C-buildings regional innovation campus learning, practising, bussiness enterprises sustainability factory in Dordrecht
    32. 39. Built Environment built environment energy neutral in 2025 all existing houses, buildings and schools energy neutral inspiration transition from coal to gas from 1955 to 1965 entire Dutch housing stock was provided with gas connection for heating and cooking
    33. 40. Built Environment energy neutral through: 1. shell of building as energy efficient as possible good isolation and and efficient installations 2. producing sustainable energy solar-PV, solar water heaters, wind, heat 3. surface area development energy, water, fine dust particles / NOx
    34. 41. Sustainable = Value Creation making housing stock sustainable is beneficial to: - economy [employment] - construction sector - value of real estate - environment - society - citizens and housing corporations
    35. 42. Thus… technically it is possible in 15 years financially it is feasible how can we get this organized?
    36. 43. Role of government <ul><ul><li> not in a directing role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>but </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>still an active but different role </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>creating innovation space for frontrunners </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>removing barriers for sustainable innovation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>developing coalitions around breakthrough projects </li></ul></ul></ul>
    37. 44. Conclusions <ul><li>sustainability transition is long-term, intricate process </li></ul><ul><ul><li>requires a change in structure, culture, practices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>transition is a battlefield where power shift occurs </li></ul><ul><li>battle between niches and regime </li></ul><ul><li>we are in the midst of ‘tipping point’ period </li></ul><ul><ul><li>crises, chaos, turbulence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>the Netherlands needs a transition agenda </li></ul><ul><ul><li>investments in sustainable innovation niches </li></ul></ul>
    38. 45. Thank you! twitter.com/jan_rotmans