20110217 grontmij

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  • 11/10/11 Perez KSI-ECST Amsterdam June 2009
  • 20110217 grontmij

    1. 1. Transition of built environment: challenge for the next decades <ul><li>Houten, 17 februari 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>Prof. Jan Rotma </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter.com/Jan_Rotmans </li></ul>
    2. 2. Built Environment <ul><li>built environment responsible for 41% of our energy use </li></ul><ul><li>50-80% CO2-reduction is required the coming decades </li></ul><ul><li> requires a transition of the built environment </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
    3. 3. Transition <ul><ul><li>fundamental change of structure , culture, practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>culture: collective set of values, paradigms </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>fundamental shift in thinking & acting at the systems level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>means to achieve a sustainable society </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. we build adequately, but we don’t build adequate things
    5. 5. Current regime in construction sector <ul><li> structure </li></ul><ul><li> fragmented, traditional chain </li></ul><ul><li> supply driven, little diversity </li></ul><ul><li> culture </li></ul><ul><li> mono-culture, conservative </li></ul><ul><li> low innovative capability </li></ul><ul><li>practice </li></ul><ul><li>‘ hit and run’, short-term return on investments </li></ul><ul><li> traditional tendering </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
    6. 6. Transition of Construction sector <ul><li>transition of construction sector is necessary </li></ul><ul><li>from to </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>supply demand </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>product service </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>economic societal </li></ul></ul></ul>
    7. 7. In which phase is the transition of construction? ” Widespread application of the new paradigm Regieraad Bouw PSIBouw Time building up a sustainable construction sector Consolidation 20 years Further development phase Predevelopment phase 20 years Tipping point Battle between the old and new paradigm Sector is here
    8. 8. Current status of construction sector <ul><li>sector is innovating and reorientating </li></ul><ul><li>much innovation at the project level </li></ul><ul><li>still innovation lags compared with other sectors </li></ul><ul><li>innovation on too small scale with few parties </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
    9. 9. Transition = Power shift <ul><li>regime: dominant structure, culture and practices </li></ul><ul><li>with power and vested interests </li></ul><ul><li>niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at smaller scale level </li></ul><ul><li>niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that might </li></ul><ul><li>take over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defend </li></ul><ul><li>its existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime </li></ul><ul><li>transition = regime-shift = power shift </li></ul>
    10. 10. Sustainability creeps into the genes (DNA) of the built environment and will become the driving forces
    11. 11. Visionary Challenge for Sector build as service to society (societal demand driven) orientation towards spatial environment instead of building allowing end-user to collect or make his own product sustainable in terms of energy and materials use flexible, conceptual building is the standard
    12. 13. Built Environment in 2030 energy producing blue green healthy organic using roofs and front walls
    13. 21. Stichting Urgenda
    14. 24. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
    15. 25. drijvende wijk/stad
    16. 26. Floating City Dutch Research Institute For Transitions water recreation ecology: wetlands technology: floating foundation energy: decentral heat/cold storage mobility: floating highway, water taxi living / working units
    17. 28. Transition Plan built environment energy neutral in 2025 all existing houses, buildings and schools energy neutral inspiration transition from coal to gas from 1955 to 1965 entire Dutch housing stock was provided with gas connection for heating and cooking
    18. 29. Built Environment energy neutral through: 1. shell of building as energy efficient as possible good isolation and and efficient installations 2. producing sustainable energy solar-PV, solar water heaters, wind, heat 3. surface area development energy, water, fine dust particles / NOx
    19. 30. Costs / Benefits total costs till 2025 140 billion Euro [73 billion energy savings] [67 billion sustainable energy] total benefits till 2025 pay back time, avoided CO2-emissions employment (50.000 jobs per year) increase in value of real estate > 140 billion
    20. 31. Costs / Benefits <ul><li>investment for home owner: 20.000 Euro </li></ul><ul><li>payback time is 10 years 6 years with WOZ-value red. </li></ul><ul><li>investment for housing corporations: 15.000 Euro </li></ul><ul><li>payback time is 12 years < 10 jaar bij WOZ- korting </li></ul><ul><li>owners of buildings: </li></ul><ul><li>payback time is 10 years 6 years with government supp. </li></ul><ul><li>energy companies: </li></ul><ul><li>payback time is 10 years at 3000 Euro per MW wind energy </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
    21. 32. Sustainable = Value Creation making housing stock sustainable is beneficial to: - economy [employment] - construction sector - value of real estate - environment - society - citizens and housing corporations
    22. 33. Thus….. technically it is possible in 15 years financially it is feasible societally it is beneficial how can we get this organized?
    23. 34. Transition Approach: district by district <ul><ul><li>start with districts in frontrunner municipalities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mobilising key parties: municipalities, corporations, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>energy companies, investors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>three tracks: energy savings, sustainable energy, surface </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in every frontrunner municipality coalition with investor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>smart strategy of seducing, rewarding, punishing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>bottom-up & top-down </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
    24. 35. making built environment sustainable requires a transition transition requires change in structure, culture and practices the Netherlands needs a mega-project to drive this transition making the built environment energy neutral by 2025 technically possible, economically profitable, financially feasible requires smart transition strategy with facilitating leadership Conclusions

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