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Innovation and Futures Thinking - Are you Leading or Following?

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How can foresight and Futures Thinking Methodologies help on the Design of a successful and future-proof product or service? What are trends, scenarios or Black Swans? This presentation was given at Interaction South America as part of a workshop about the usage of trends and Lean Service Creation for service innovation and creation.

The workshop is on its fourth edition and this time Ricardo Brito and Paul Houghton, my colleagues from Futurice, conducted the workshop and improved the material. I hope you enjoy!!

A co-creation with Ricardo Brito, at Futurice.

Published in: Design

Innovation and Futures Thinking - Are you Leading or Following?

  1. 1. Innovation and Futures Thinking: Are You Leading or Following? @futurice @toastedric @mobile_rat @janevita
  2. 2. Who are we?
  3. 3. We create digital services for people to love. • Founded in 2000 • 200+ employees from 18 countries • 8th year in a row profitable growth • YOY growth 30%
  4. 4. Our toolbox
  5. 5. We build delightful digital services. And help our customers to succeed in digital business. • Analyzing business • Feeling people • Mastering technology
  6. 6. Using Future Thinking in Concept Design
  7. 7. Foresight1.
  8. 8. FORESIGHT Foreseeing the Future is the ability to forecast what will be needed or is going to happen in the future. Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
  9. 9. FORESIGHT IS NOT - Predict the future
 - Direct answers
 - Market Research or Business Intelligence Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
  10. 10. FORESIGHT IS - Combine familiar things in new ways
 - Makes you question your own “truths”
 - Inspire you to look from other angles
 - Helps to understand broader concepts
 - Helps the development of sustainable business
 - Helps find new business opportunities Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
  11. 11. FORESIGHT IS - Analyse the same date differently
 - Identify patterns, similarities 
 - Professional intuition based on experience
 - Process today’s world to find tomorrow’s 
 opportunities Source:    Raymond,  2010,  Finpro  
  12. 12. Martin Raymond, The Future Laboratory “Working with Futures Thinking is not trying to predict the future, or having futuristic ideas. Futures Thinking is applying new and emergent cultural changes, after mapping and projecting these changes in a way that other people can understand and visualise them.”
  13. 13. WHERE ARE THEY? - Internal Consultants
 - Consultants and companies who offer Future Research, Foresight Services and 
 Trend Analysis
  14. 14. About Future Thinking2.
  15. 15. Garlain, 2011 “There’s not a single future, but a whole spectrum of likely futures that depend on numerous possibilities, depending on decisions…
 …The aim is to shape our brains and strategic plans to be more flexible when facing the inevitability of the future.”
  16. 16. Mannermaa, 2004 “The most important thing for Futurologists is presenting as many alternatives and views as possible, they are the ones who will support the decisions to be made. ”
  17. 17. Holistic & Multidisciplinary Statistics Economics Politics Social Psychology Philosophy Culture History Antropology Sociology FUTURES
 RESEARCH Technology Referência:  Aleksi  Neuvonen,  Demos  Helsinki.  Slideshare.  
  18. 18. DATA TREND ANALYSIS PATTERN RECOGNITION INTUITION IMAGINATION A set of principles and practices that can be applied to solve complex problems and to envision desirable and sustainable ways of action + Source:    Futures  thinking  process  by  Vanessa  Miemis
  19. 19. BIG DATA
  20. 20. TREND ANALYSIS
  21. 21. PATTERN RECOGNITION
  22. 22. INTUITION AND IMAGINATION
  23. 23. An iterative process which helps you consider a range of possibilities, probably and preferable outcomes ASKING THE QUESTION SCANNING
 THE WORLD MAPPING POSSIBILITIES ASKING THE NEXT QUESTION Source:    Futures  thinking  process  by    Jamais  Cascio
  24. 24. Futurologists create expectations about the people’s and world’s future. Their goal is to support your efforts on shaping the future.
  25. 25. We can make more informed Business and Design decisions by foreseeing the future
  26. 26. ADAPTIVE ROBUST TRANSFORMATIONAL Futures Thinking develops the long-range outlook DESIGN FUTURE
 THINKING 21st CENTURY DESIGN NEEDS TO BE
  27. 27. Future Thinking Benefits3.
  28. 28. Source: Sad Topographies Helps visualizing where we could be in the future Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
  29. 29. Source: Sad Topographies Supports business choosing which risks to take Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
  30. 30. Source: Sad Topographies Simplifies the complex is an easy and digestable way WORLD’S INFORMATION INSIGHTS AND PLANS Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
  31. 31. Source: Sad Topographies Business flexibility & new business oportunities Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
  32. 32. Future Thinking & Service Design7.
  33. 33. (Service) Design Thinking Futures Research Inovation BUSINESS
 OPPORTUNITY In 2012, Koskelo & Nousiainen studied the relationship between Service Design and Futures Research. Innovation was the result
  34. 34. INFORMATION COLLECTION PESTE
 Analysis INFORMATION PROCESSING STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
 FUTURES IDENTIFICATION
 OF MARKET
 NEEDS CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT, TESTING
 AND REFINEMENT REALIZATION Technology Roadmap Delphi - Analysis Future table Cross-Impact Analysis Time-Series Analysis Trend Analysis Scenario working Futures table Strategy Working Alternative courses of actions Business Potential estimation of scenarios Competition Analysis Market orientated futures table Scenario storylines SWOT Market Potential Scenario based theme specific identification Concept Drafts Visualization Visionary Concepts Commerciali- zation Piloting Timing of market operations and R&D Cooperation & Networks FORESIGHT CONCEPTS FUTURES  THINKING Foresight  acIvity  in  the  context  of  innovaIon  process  (Meristö  2009,  as  cited  in  Meristö  and  LaiInen  2009,  16).  
  35. 35. UNDERSTANDING Empathic Conversations THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION Observation Ethnography Probes Future Scenarios Trend Analysis Affinity wall Personas Mental Models Stage Play Storyboard Journey Map Scenarios Concepts Prototypes Use Cases Scenario What If Service Blueprint Requirements Roadmapping Commerciali- zation Piloting Timing of market operations and R&D Cooperation & Networks RESEARCH CONCEPTS DESIGN OPERATION Multidisciplinary Processing Weak Signal exploration Non-Experts Co-Design Games Drama Co-Creative Tools Trend Cards What If Experience Priorities Deciding Priorities Agile Development Systematic Implementation SD  PROCESS  SUPPORTED  BY  FUTURES  RESEARCH SOURCE:  MORITZ  2005,  123;  EDITED  BY  KOSKELO  AND  NOUSIAINEN  BASED  ON  THEIR  RESEARCH,  2012  
  36. 36. FUTURES THINKING Scenarios PESTE Context Value Map Personas Trends Weak Signals Context Value Map Personas What if Roadmap Storytelling Play Prototype No constrains: Look far and beyond for alternative and desired contexts DEFINE & SCOPE PROCESS & IDEATE DELIVER & UTILIZE DESIGN THINKING Empathy and concreteness: People driven systems and solutions Source: La Futura
  37. 37. UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION INFORMATION COLLECTION INFORMATION PROCESSING STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
 FUTURES IDENTIFICATION
 OF MARKET
 NEEDS CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT, TESTING
 AND REFINEMENT REALIZATION RESEARCH & KNOWLEDGE CREATION INTERPRET & DEVELOP CREATE & TEST FUTURES THINKING SERVICE DESIGN
  38. 38. RESEARCH & FIND ANALYSE & DIGEST CREATE DEFINE
  39. 39. FUTURE THINKING SERVICE DESIGN CONTEXT: Scenarios & Possibilities that influence Design choices
  40. 40. Applying Future Thinking in Design4.
  41. 41. RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS raw data, information…… Understanding the context of the problem and foresee opportunities
  42. 42. CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT Brings a bigger and wider prespective Exploring Scenario and Possibilities
  43. 43. Short term plan & Big Vision Development of a road map for the future CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
  44. 44. Weak Signals, Black Swans & Trends5.
  45. 45. Examples: Tinder, Facebook, Bimbi, Wearables…. - Your peers laugh at what you told - “Never going to happen”
 - People never heard about it, - As more people speak more about it more people get engaged Weak Signals Source: Hiltunen, 2010
  46. 46. - A rare and unexpected event with huge social implications - Can be made by Nature (tsunamis) - Can be made by Humans (scientific discoveries) Black Swans Source:  Xtreme  events,  2011  
  47. 47. Can be the possible destiny of something new or different that might have a big impact over culture, society or a specific market. 
 Raymond, 2009 Trend
  48. 48. A weak signal, behaviour change that becomes more regular, and changes people, products and ideas overtime. Trend
  49. 49. Trends can be compulsive, addictive and sometimes surprisingly viral when you least expected. Trend
  50. 50. Trends Classification MEGA TRENDS
 Where the world is heading MACRO TRENDS
 What people want MICRO TRENDS
 What does it means to my business
  51. 51. MICRO TREND Mass Market Ready New Intelligent Can be structure changing
  52. 52. MACRO TREND Economies People Environment Society Several Micro Trends
  53. 53. MEGA TREND Broad and Profound Comprehensive and extend to all regions of the world Affects all actors: - Companies
 - Individuals
 - Governments Takes many years to become perceived
  54. 54. CONNECTED WORLD DIY ELECTRONICS ARDUINO; 3D PRINTING Example
  55. 55. MICRO CULTURAL CHANGE Changes in values and attitudes of people BEHAVIORAL CHANGE Changes in practices, patterns and models SIGNALS First Manifestations GLOBAL CHANGE Changes across the globe MACRO MEGA OVER TIME Source:  Based  on  Anu  K.  Nousiainen  research  
  56. 56. Trend cards help you to visualise trends. There is a big variety of models and canvases. The best one is the one you and your stakeholders feel comfortable with. They are a great summary for the subjects in a trend report. Trend cards
  57. 57. Examples
  58. 58. TREND6 Consumers become Creators Futurice Oy, 2015
  59. 59. TREND6 Consumers become Creators Customers are becoming the designers. They will sell customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care more about what they can do or create. Futurice Oy, 2015
  60. 60. Customers are becoming the designers and the best design will be perceived as the one which will give the customer the power of creation. Consumers will not only buy from you but also sell the customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care less about what they have or buy and more about what they can do or create.. •  85% of the 2014 Best Global Brands have used crowdsourcing in the last 10 years. (eYeka) •  The Best Global Brands are three times more likely to use crowdsourcing platforms than websites and social media for their crowdsourcing efforts. (eYeka) •  There is a strong commercial case for personalization - those who are doing it report 14% uplift in sales. (e-consultancy) ! ! Privacy is a big thing when you create customers profile. Retailers need to treat it very seriously. Creepiness – avoid services that jus add extra work to customer, but rather gives an amazing and seamless experience. Find the right blend between customer creation and professional expertise. Always needs to be part of the brand strategy. New ways and channels to communicate with customers. Know from customers what they want and how much they are involved with your brand. Ideas about new services and also how to get the old ones improved. Create a controlled environment in which creation happens (ikeahackers, Bugatti, etc.) Trend intro Facts about the trend Challenges Opportunities Consumers become Creators Trend 6 Futurice Oy, 2015
  61. 61. Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es& With%the%development%of%superhuman%intelligence,%people%will%begin% crea8ng%virtual%reali8es,%which%will%change%the%way%entertainment%is% experienced%;%There%reali8es%will%be%very%close%to%real%life%experience,% because%of%the%advanced%IT%technology,%and%therefore%very%realis8c%;% People%will%be%part%of%informa8on%networks%that%are%connected% everywhere%and%with%everything%;%By%crea8ng%and%living%virtual%reali8es,% people%can%expand%their%experience%of%life,%and%also%share%their%virtual% reali8es%with%others.% % Driving&Forces&&&Counter&trends& Technological%development:%born%of%superhuman%intelligence%;% Environmental:%people%s8ll%want%to%experience%things,%but% travelling%will%be%more%dangerous%and%expensive%;%Similar% experiences%can%be%experienced%virtually%;%Entertainment:%Movie% industry%is%already%including%this%subject%to%movies%;%%Poli8cal:% War%;%Health:%Virtual%reali8es%are%found%to%be%harmful?% People&&&Consump,on& Birth%of%social%media%and%real%life%role%play%games%are%a%beginning%of%this%trend%;%Also%the% accelera8ng%speed%of%technological%development%;%Everyone%will%be%affected%by%the%trend%;% People%will%find%ways%to%deepen%their%lives%through%virtual%reali8es.%It%could%also%become% some%people's%profession%to%create%services%for%virtual%reali8es%or%to%provide%help%to%create% new%virtual%reali8es%;%People%will%share%the%virtual%reali8es%they%created%with%their%friends% and%this%will%become%one%form%of%social%network%of%being%a%human%;%This%trend%will%reduce% the%amount%of%services%used%outside%the%virtual%reali8es%and%therefore%alter%the%targets%of% consump8on%;%People%will%buy%services%to%enhance%their%experiences%in%the%virtual%reali8es.%% HIGH&speed&of&change& & & Global& Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es% Google%Glass% Samsung%% paper%screen%%% Maturity%&%Speed%%%%&I&&&&&Coverage%&%Context& hQp://koota8on.com/virtual;reality.html% Matrix%Movie% Minority%Report%movie% Source: SID group content using Trend Tool from 2012, ©Koskelo & Nousiainen
  62. 62. ©2015 PSFK Labs
  63. 63. Source: Ixonos Plc
  64. 64. Source: Ixonos Plc
  65. 65. Scenarios6.
  66. 66. Source: Sad Topographies Scenarios are a good source of information to support Business and Design decisions for regarding the Future IDEA 1 Possible Future Scenario 2 Possible Future Scenario 3 Possible Future Scenario Today Inspired  by  Alstyne,  2010,  Hiltunen  2010,  Meristö  &  LaiInen  2009
  67. 67. Source: Sad Topographies Scenarios are guesses about the future, some more likely to happen than others Inspired  by  Alstyne,  2010,  Hiltunen  2010,  Meristö  &  LaiInen  2009
  68. 68. Scenarios are not predictions Scenarios can just be compared and not judged. There’s no better or worst, but more or less probable. Inspired  by  Alstyne,  2010,  Hiltunen  2010,  Meristö  &  LaiInen  2009
  69. 69. Scenarios Stories that can be analysed and synthesised, built in a sequential order based on possible futures. PROBABLE . POSSIBLE . PLAUSIBLE . DESIRED . REALISTIC . INSPIRING
  70. 70. Source: Sad Topographies To apply a scenario to your case, you need to contextualise it and analyse it from different prespectives BUSINESS DESIGN TECH
  71. 71. 7. WORKSHOP Yeaah! Finally some action!
  72. 72. Instructions 1. Form groups
 2. Choose 1 or more trend Cards
 3. Identify 3 Consumer Needs
 4. Ideate
 5. Create a poster
 6. Create a Customer Journey
 7. Write your elevator pitch 8. Present Ideas
  73. 73. SEGMENTS Private Companies & Businesses Government & Politics Economy & Monetization Media & Entertainment Science & Technology Arts & Culture Commerce Health & Well-Being Travel & Transports Education
  74. 74. Timeline Choose Segment Choose Trend Cards Identify 3 Consumer Needs Ideate Create poster Create a Customer Journey Write Elevator Pitch Present Ideas 10 min 10 min 10 min 30 min 15 min 15 min 15 min 5 min
  75. 75. Choose your trends BUSINESS TECH MARKETING SOCIAL FOOD CIVIC TECH RETAIL SOCIETY MY & MYSELF
  76. 76. Define your consumer needs Identify at least 3 consumer needs that relate to your area. This needs should to be addressed by your concept.
  77. 77. BASIC NEEDS Which deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address? What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created by the changes identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfy them? Who are other businesses applying this trend? Which (new) customer groups could you apply this trend to? What would you have to change? Why is this trend emerging now? What’s changing? How and where could you apply this trend to your business? Long-Term, Widespread, Macro SHIFTS Recent, Short-Term, Technologies TRIGGERS CONSUMER TREND CANVAS DRIVERS OF CHANGE TREND : INNOVATION POTENTIAL EMERGING COMSUMER EXPECTATIONS INSPIRATION WHO? BUSINESS IDEA Source:  trendwatching.com  |  CONSUMER  TREND  CANVAS
  78. 78. Brainstorming Rules Defer Judgement Go for Quantity Encourage Wild Ideas Build on the Ideas of Others Stay Focused Be Visual

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