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Renewable energy - India- future

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Renewable Energy in
India: Status and
Future Prospects
“……the time is running out…soon, there will
be nothing left to burn on earth but earth
itself…”
2010
ENERGY IN INDIA: AN OVERVIEW
 India consumes 3.7% of the world’s commercial
energy making it the 5th largest consumer of energy
globally.
 Total installed capacity of 1,44,912 MW.
 350 kgoe per capita primary commercial energy
consumption. 22% of world average.
 Per capita electricity consumption: 600 kWhr per
year.
 About 80% of total rural energy consumption comes
from non-commercial energy.
 84% villages electrified. 44% of rural households
electrified.
INDIAN POWER SECTOR
Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
ENERGY CONSUMPTION TREND
ENERGY SCENARIO IN INDIA
 Rapid economic development & Increasing
population = High demand for Energy
 A sustained 8% GDP growth of India requires an
annual increase of:
 a) Commercial energy supply from 3.7% to 6.1%
 b) Total primary energy supply from 2.2% to 5.1%
 Limited supply of COAL, coupled with its poor
quality, low level of technologies advancements and
high environmental hazards.
 Limited domestic reserves and uncertain foreign
supply of hydrocarbons.
WHY RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR INDIA?
Power shortage
Rising Prices of Oils & Gases
Ecological Hazards
Ample resources and sites available
Abundant sunshine
Government incentive
Increased financing options

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Renewable energy - India- future

  • 1. Renewable Energy in India: Status and Future Prospects “……the time is running out…soon, there will be nothing left to burn on earth but earth itself…” 2010
  • 2. ENERGY IN INDIA: AN OVERVIEW  India consumes 3.7% of the world’s commercial energy making it the 5th largest consumer of energy globally.  Total installed capacity of 1,44,912 MW.  350 kgoe per capita primary commercial energy consumption. 22% of world average.  Per capita electricity consumption: 600 kWhr per year.  About 80% of total rural energy consumption comes from non-commercial energy.  84% villages electrified. 44% of rural households electrified.
  • 3. INDIAN POWER SECTOR Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
  • 5. ENERGY SCENARIO IN INDIA  Rapid economic development & Increasing population = High demand for Energy  A sustained 8% GDP growth of India requires an annual increase of:  a) Commercial energy supply from 3.7% to 6.1%  b) Total primary energy supply from 2.2% to 5.1%  Limited supply of COAL, coupled with its poor quality, low level of technologies advancements and high environmental hazards.  Limited domestic reserves and uncertain foreign supply of hydrocarbons.
  • 6. WHY RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR INDIA? Power shortage Rising Prices of Oils & Gases Ecological Hazards Ample resources and sites available Abundant sunshine Government incentive Increased financing options
  • 7. BENEFITS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY  Avoid the high costs involved in transmission capex.  Avoid distribution losses – Technical & otherwise  Avoid recurring fuel cost  Boost the rural economy  Encourage self help groups & self dependence  Enable village co-operatives to supply and / or monitor distribution  Make available much needed energy for basic needs at the doorstep at affordable prices.
  • 8. INSTALLED CAPACITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
  • 9. CURRENT FOCUS  Promoting rural energy for productive uses and linked social benefits  Promoting renewable energy for rural electrification and industrial applications  Enhancing access of the rural poor to affordable and sustainable energy services  Supporting training and capacity building for manufacture, local assembly and maintenance of renewable energy technologies / systems  Organizing global forum activities and providing strategic expert advice on renewable energy technologies and energy policy planning and institutional framework
  • 10. RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT Wind installation (global) 60,000 MW (cumulative) India’s share (and position) 6270 MW(fourth in the world) SPV cell production (global) 1,700 MW (in 2005) India’s share (and position) 37 MW (seventh in the world) Biogas plants (global) 16 million units (cumulative) India’s share (and position) 3.9 million family size units (second in the world) Solar Thermal (global) 110 million sq.m (cumulative) India’s share (and position) 1.65 million sq. m (ninth in the world) Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
  • 11. INDIA RENEWABLE POWER POTENTIAL Renewable Resource Estimated Potential Remarks Wind Power 45,000 MW Sites with wind densities of 300 W/m2 or higher with 9% of assessed area available for wind farms requiring 12 ha/MW. Biomass Power 45,000 MW 20 mha of wastelands yielding 10 MT/ha/annum of woody biomass giving 4000 kcal/ kg with system efficiency of 30% and operating at 75% PLF. Solar Power 50,000 MW Assuming solar energy: 4-6 kWhr/ m2/ day and depending upon future developments making solar technology cost-competitive for grid power applications. Small Hydro Power 15,000 MW Bio-Energy 24,000 MW Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
  • 12. COMMERCIAL ENERGY IMPORTS FOR 8% GDP Fuel Range of Requirement in Scenarios Assumed Domestic Production Range of Imports Import (Percent) Oil (Mt) 350–486 35 315–451 90–93 Natural Gas (Mtoe) 100–197 100 0-97 0-49 Coal (Mtoe) 632-1022 560 72-462 11-45 Total Commercial Primary Energy 1351-1702 ---- 387-1,010 29-59 Source: Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission, India
  • 13. INDIA – AN ATTRACTIVE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET  India has a large potential for energy generation by utilization of renewable energy source  MNRE has planed a target capacity addition of 10,000 MW during the 11th five year plan  10% of annual power capacity additions to be from Renewable between 2003-2012  As per the E&Y’s renewable energy index, which takes into account various factors governing renewable energy growth in a country, India is ranked 3rd overall.  High potential for development across various renewable source
  • 14. INDIAN WIND ENERGY SECTOR OVERVIEW CURRENT SCENARIO  4th largest producers of wind energy in the world.  India’s current installed wind capacity is 8.7 GW (approx. 10% of the world’s total installed capacity).  Capacity growth has been strong with a 22% CAGR over last decade.  Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra & Karnataka are the leaders in wind capacity.
  • 15. INDIAN WIND ENERGY SECTOR OVERVIEW FUTURE POTENTIAL  Cumulative installed capacity is expected to reach 12 GW by 2010.  Generation based subsidy of Rs 0.50per unit recently announced for 10 years (limit of 5 MW per developer and 50 MW in aggregate).
  • 16. KEY TREND IN INDIA WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY Manufacturer Value Chain Manufacturing Erecting & Commissioning Guarantees & Maintenance Developer Chain Site Identification Contracts & Clearances Operation  All players in India undertaking a Dual Role – Manufacturing & Developer  Various Indian Companies are looking to enter the sector  Infrastructure Developers  Electrical Equipment Manufacturers
  • 17. INDIAN SOLAR ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW MASSIVE POTENTIAL OF INDIA  Huge potential for Solar Energy development in India  High sunshine days, abundance of sites make soalr energy an enticing prospect MARKET IN GROWTH STAGE  Installed manufacturing capacity has grown from a meager 10 MW in 2000 to a total of 335 MW by 2007.  India is now 7th worldwide in Solar PV Cell production  Generation capacities expected to pick up with generation linked subsidy announced by government
  • 18. KEY TRENDS IN INDIAN SOLAR INDUSTRY EXPANSION ACROSS THE BOARD  Various existing players planning Brownfield expansion.  Huge new Greenfield facilities being planned. KEY DRIVERS INCLUDE:  Low operating costs  Capital subsidy (20/25%) by government for large semi-conductor based units (for large investments above certain limits)  Possibility of Solar Energy development locally.  Public and private capital in abundant supply.
  • 19. INDIAN HYDRO POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO POWER GENERATION  India ranks 8th in terms of hydro-electricity generated  Potential to provide energy in remote and hilly areas where extension of an electrical transmission grid system is uneconomical  Till now, 14 States have announced policies for setting up commercial SHP projects. KEY POSITIVE  Proven Technology  Low O&M Costs  High energy conversion efficiency (70%)
  • 20. INDIAN HYDRO POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW KEY DRAWBACKS  High gestation period  High capital costs (per MW)  Social Costs FUTURE POTENTIAL  Hydro capacity expected to reach 57 GW by 2012.  Small hydro potential is expected close to 15 GW.  MNRE has introduced subsidy schemes for SHPs up to 25 MW.  Well-established manufacturing base for full range and type of small hydro equipments.
  • 21. BIOMASS ENERGY OVERVIEW Bio Mass Resources • Agricultural Crops and Residues • Oil Bearing Plants • Woody Biomass • Industrial and Municipal Waste Supply System • Harvesting • Collection • Handling • Storage Conversion • Biochemical • Thermo chemical • Physical/Chemical End Products • Heat Electricity • Transport Fuels • Solid Fuels
  • 22. INDIAN BIOMASS MARKET OVERVIEW CHALLENGES  Small sized  Dependence on agricultural output  Insecure raw material linkage  Shortage of equipment  Lack of cheap financing, both debt & equity  Currently, few focused biomass players POTENTIAL  20 GW of power may be generated from 300 MT of agro waste (currently produced)  50% currently burnt in the open  Less than 3% potential realized  Can revolutionize pace of rural electrification. DRIVERS  Agro based economy  Large, Unexploited domestic resource  Favorably aligned regulatory environment  Simple technology  Power deficit across states
  • 23. SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL RETURNS IN RE BASE GENERATION PROJECTS  Given the comparatively higher cost of generating energy from renewable sources, necessity for financial support for the industry.  Government has introduced subsidies to make returns attractive for developers.  Indicative expected returns: Type of Project Returns Wind Hydro (PPA) Hydro (Merchant) Biomass Solar Costs (Rs. Cr/MW) 5-6 5-6 5-6 4-5 18-20 Equity IRR 20-25 15-18 20-25 16-20 --