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Fooling ourselves with data – Chad Jennings, Moo

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As businesses and product managers we love to shout about being "data-driven." Data is obviously fundamental, but with an industry average conversion rate of 3%, most of our data
is internal-facing and biased towards the minority of existing customers who have successfully converted. What about the majority who are non-customers? We are often blind to why non-customers fail, yet break-through products can come from understanding the potential customers who never show up in your dashboards and models. Let’s stop navel gazing and consider how we can better uncover insights that can drive growth, as well as useful, usable and delightful products.

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Fooling ourselves with data – Chad Jennings, Moo

  1. 1. Fooling Ourselves with Data @chadjennings
  2. 2. 50% Survival
  3. 3. McGeddon, Wikipedia
  4. 4. Survivorship bias Concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not.

  5. 5. Do we invest too much in the wrong data?
  6. 6. 45%, average bounce rate Source: Localytics
  7. 7. 65%, bounce rate, mobile Source: Localytics
  8. 8. 25%, use an app more than once Source: Localytics
  9. 9. ~3%, Ecommerce conversion rate Source: Localytics
  10. 10. ~1.5%, Ecommerce conversion rate, mobile Source: Localytics
  11. 11. 98.5% Non survivors. Non customers.
  12. 12. Why do we tend to invest so little in non-customer insights?
  13. 13. We look at the data which we can easily collect, not the data we need
  14. 14. Data is loud Photo by Jason Rosewell
  15. 15. Data only looks at the past. It is limited as a predictor of the future. Photo by Luiza Sayfullina 
  16. 16. Photo by Carlos Muza  Facts are not insights.
  17. 17. Our customers’ world is not structured the same way our data is. Tom Hulme, Desire Paths, TED
  18. 18. People and decision making are complex and messy.
  19. 19. Distrust of qualitative data. Photo by Björn Simon 
  20. 20. How can we gather more non customers insights?
  21. 21. A few tactics..
  22. 22. Get a budget. Ask a friend (in marketing). Start with “soon-to-be” non-customers. Use web and mobile intercepts. Get out of the building.
  23. 23. Get a budget. Ask a friend (in marketing).
  24. 24. Get a budget. Ask a friend (in marketing). Start with “soon-to-be” non-customers. Use web and mobile intercepts. Get out of the building.
  25. 25. Our Market Soon-to-be Non customers Waiting to jump ship Refusing 
 non-customers Consciously choose against our market Tier 1 Tier 2 Unexplored Markets distant from ours Tier 3 Blue Ocean Strategy, Mauborgne and Kim 
  26. 26. Soon-to-be Non Customer
  27. 27. Get a budget. Ask a friend (in marketing). Start with “soon-to-be” non-customers. Use web and mobile intercepts. Get out of the building.
  28. 28. Get a budget. Ask a friend (in marketing). Start with “soon-to-be” non-customers. Use web and mobile intercepts. Get out of the building.
  29. 29. “One non-customer is 100% better than none.” - Steve Krug (paraphrase)
  30. 30. Product View Business Cards and Identity Collateral
  31. 31. Demographic View Creative Professionals, SMBs, Enterprise, Insert Vertical here
  32. 32. JobsTo Be Done View Acquire a lead, Stand out, Impress potential client, Look bigger than I am, survive my first year in business
  33. 33. “Stories are just data with soul.” - Dr. Brene Brown
  34. 34. McGeddon, Wikipedia
  35. 35. 3% avg ecommerce conversion rate
  36. 36. Thanks! @chadjennings

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