Green Energy From Heat - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)

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Get Energy from Waste Heat, Solar Heat and Geothermal by Thermo Electric Generation Technology (TEG)

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Green Energy From Heat - Themo Electric Generation (TEG)

  1. 1. Green Energy from Heat Applying Thermo Electric Generation (TEG) Jamie Yang, 2009 [email_address] Linkedin Profile
  2. 2. <ul><li>Driving Forces </li></ul><ul><li>System Block </li></ul><ul><li>TEG Applications </li></ul><ul><li>Business Model </li></ul><ul><li>Market Analysis and Potentiality </li></ul><ul><li>Strategy (Operation and Manufacturing) </li></ul><ul><li>Appendix </li></ul>Outline
  3. 3. <ul><ul><li>Fuel is limited and price high </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alternative energy is on trend </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Too much waste heat </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Earth is getting hot </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Montreal sunset regulation on Freon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kyoto Protocol </li></ul></ul>Driving Forces
  4. 4. <ul><li>Thermo Electric Generation - TEG </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>TEG Hot-Side : be attached to heat sources </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>TEG Cold-Side : liquid cooling system </li></ul></ul></ul>System Function Block Heat Absorber TEG Heat Liquid Cooling Balance and Charger AC Power DC Power Function Block Diagram Heat Sources Inverter Battery Array
  5. 5. <ul><ul><li>Waste Heat Recycling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geothermal Application </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Roof-top Solar Heat Application </li></ul></ul>TEG Applications
  6. 6. <ul><li>Potential Customers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Device Makers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Steel facility maker </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Arc furnace maker </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Boiler/Steam Turbine maker </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System Installer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Incinerator Installer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Geothermal Power Plant Installer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Solar PV and CPV System Installer </li></ul></ul></ul>Business Model
  7. 7. Raw Material Powder Metallurgy … Module Assembly Covered by TEG module Maker A B System Design (Charger/Battery/Inverter) Construction & Installation A Mount TEG modules on Specific Devices Covered by Device Maker B Covered by System Integrator Business Model
  8. 8. <ul><li>Waste Heat Recycling </li></ul><ul><li>Geothermal Electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Solar PV </li></ul><ul><li>TEG Prospective </li></ul><ul><li>Life Cycle </li></ul><ul><li>System Integrator </li></ul><ul><li>Key success factor </li></ul><ul><li>Entry barrier </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>4P </li></ul>Market Analysis and Potentiality
  9. 9. <ul><li>Market Analysis and Potentiality </li></ul><ul><li>– Waste Heat Recycling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Incinerator </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plant Waste Heat * not counted in </li></ul></ul>Unit : Million ton per year Source : The Worldwide Market for Waste Incineration Plants, ecoprog 2008 Note : *1. Industrial number was estimated by 5x of municipal quantity *2. The detailed estimation for TEG quantity, please refer to appendix TEG Projection Global Waste Incineration Capacity Type Year 1997  2007 2008  2013 Municipal 160  200 210  240 Industrial * 1 800  1000 1050  1200 TEG Q’ty * 2 2008  2013 100 M sets 500 M sets
  10. 10. Source : IGA (International Geothermal Association) Electricity Statistic, 2008 See Appendix for detail Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal Electricity
  11. 11. Unit : MWe per year Source : The Worldwide Installed Geothermal Power Plant Capacity, IGA 2008 (International Geothermal Association) Note : 1. The detailed estimation for TEG quantity, please refer to appendix 2. MWe: Mega Watt of Electricity * see appendix Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal Electricity Type Year 2005 2010 MWe *2 9,064 12,100 TEG Q’ty *1 2010 120 M pcs/year
  12. 12. TAM CAGR 23% from 2007 to 2017 Revenue CAGR 12.6% from 2007 to 2017 Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV Global Solar PV Installation/Production : Alternative Energy 2003 2007 2017 (est.) Solar PV Installations (MW) 620 2,821 22,760 Wind Power Installed (MW) 8000 20,060 75,781 Source: Clean Edge, Inc., 2008
  13. 13. Source: 2007 solar market review, Solarbuzz, Merrill Lynch Note : please refer to appendix for the output power of TEG Year 2008 SPV market size projection will be 3.674 GW, which is equal to TEG as below formula : 7,348Km 2 * 100 pcs/m 2 = 734 million pcs per year Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV Global solar PV installations and TEG projections 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PV Installations – Megawatts (MW) 1,086 1,460 1,744 2,826 3,674 4,776 5,970 7,462 9,328 Y/Y Change 82% 34% 19% 62% 30% 30% 25% 25% 25% PV Installations – KM 2 ,(12.7M 2 /KW) 13,792 18,542 22,149 35,890 46,657 60,654 75,818 94,773 118,466 Solar TEG Equivalent – KM 2 ,(2M 2 /KW)* 2,172 2,920 3,488 5,652 7,348 9,552 11,940 14,925 18,656
  14. 14. Geothermal Generation Thermal-Electric Market TEG Applications 600M 120M 735M Annum Quantity (pcs) Waste Heat Incinerator Industrial Solar Heat Roof-top Power Plant Market Analysis and Potentiality – TEG Prospective
  15. 15. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Development Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Sales 2014 2015 Rejuvenation Maintain Stable Decline or Exit <ul><li>Clone study & copy tech </li></ul><ul><li>Clone launch </li></ul><ul><li>Clone getting strong </li></ul><ul><li>Many clone competing </li></ul><ul><li>Paradigm Shift </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation recipe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Expand existing business </li></ul><ul><li>New Application add in </li></ul>Market Analysis and Potentiality – Life Cycle
  16. 16. <ul><ul><li>Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NKK, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nippon Steel Corp., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Takuma Co., Ltd., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hitachi Zosen Corp., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitsui Engineering and Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kubota Corp., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ebara Corp., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd., and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kobe Steel, Ltd. </li></ul></ul>Japan <ul><ul><li>Veolia Environmental Services, France </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incinco Limited, UK </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ATLAS INCINERATORS A/S, Denmark </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Austrian Energy & Environment Group </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Todaysure Projects Limited, UK </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>KAS Engineering Solutions Ltd. , Scoltland </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Standardkessel GmbH, Germany </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AVA Abfallverbrennungsanlage Nordweststadt GmbH, Germany </li></ul></ul>Rest of World Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat System Integrators
  17. 17. <ul><ul><li>Veolia Environmental Service </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carrier </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Combustion Associates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Capstone Micro Turbine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electra Therm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Heat Technology Products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sidel Systems U.S.A., </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Western Combustion Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… </li></ul></ul>Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat System Integrators
  18. 18. <ul><ul><li>Calpine Corp. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chevron Corp. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AES Corp. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Western GeoPower Corp. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Raser Technology Inc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nevada Geothermal Power Inc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Polaris Geothermal Inc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. Geothermal Inc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grace Geothermal, Ormat Technologies, Inc., … </li></ul></ul>Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal System Integrators
  19. 19. <ul><ul><li>Sekisui Chemical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solon AG Fuer Solartecknik </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conergy AG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aleo Solar AG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar-Fabrik AG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SAG Solarstrom AG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solartron PCL </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… </li></ul></ul>Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV System Integrators
  20. 20. <ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Leading-edge technology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Full patent coverage </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reverse engineering prevention </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Right selected partner </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Good FAE support </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Efficiency logistics </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Well financial control and support </li></ul></ul></ul>Market Analysis and Potentiality – Key Success Factors
  21. 21. <ul><ul><li>Advanced technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time to market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing know-how </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer service </li></ul></ul>Market Analysis and Potentiality – Entry Barriers
  22. 22. Market Analysis and Potentiality – SWOT <ul><li>Strength </li></ul><ul><li>Sophisticated thermal technology </li></ul><ul><li>Market leader in TEG performance </li></ul><ul><li>Provide a green way on electricity generation </li></ul><ul><li>Customer-service driven management team </li></ul><ul><li>Weakness </li></ul><ul><li>Weak cash flow </li></ul><ul><li>Small operation scale </li></ul><ul><li>Inadequate mentality and culture </li></ul><ul><li>No enough customer reference site </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Limit of Petroleum resource </li></ul><ul><li>Renewable energy is on trend </li></ul><ul><li>Governments compensate electricity and installation fee </li></ul><ul><li>No big guy in TEG implementations of geothermal power plants </li></ul><ul><li>Combine solar PV become better performance </li></ul><ul><li>Much waste heat to be recovered </li></ul><ul><li>Threat </li></ul><ul><li>Followers/clones will be coming soon </li></ul><ul><li>Government is getting to reduce SPV installation subsidy </li></ul><ul><li>Solar PV is proven, dominating the market </li></ul><ul><li>Need re-educate market and government </li></ul>
  23. 23. Market Analysis and Potentiality – 4P <ul><li>Price </li></ul><ul><li>10%-30% higher </li></ul><ul><li>Cost down by vertical/upstream integration </li></ul><ul><li>Product </li></ul><ul><li>Best of Cost/price performance </li></ul><ul><li>Patent/IP </li></ul><ul><li>Module business majority </li></ul><ul><li>System offering minority </li></ul><ul><li>Place </li></ul><ul><li>Vertical market, 80% </li></ul><ul><li>Horizontal channel, 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on SI channel </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion </li></ul><ul><li>Road show </li></ul><ul><li>Attend professional exhibitions </li></ul><ul><li>Web-site marketing </li></ul><ul><li>FAE-Driven </li></ul>
  24. 24. <ul><li>Manufacturing Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Fulfillment and Logistics </li></ul>Strategy
  25. 25. Out Sourcing, Subcontracting Management Factory Build Up Asia Factory Build Up Global Manufacturing Operation Mfg Site Mirroring (Near customer) Strategy - Manufacturing Plan
  26. 26. items W-9 W-8 W-7 W-6 W-5 W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 W0 Market demand Distribution W/H Geo W/H materials all-part-in sea freight lead time air freight lead time PCB production Ore mining mill TEG Overall Material Planning Flow The longest lead time component Distribution manufacturing Material planning and manufacturing Strategy - Fulfillment & Logistics
  27. 27. System Integrator End Customer Geo Site Recycling Center Plant Site Recycling Refurbish & Recycling <ul><li>Information Flow </li></ul><ul><li>Goods Flow </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Flow </li></ul>Pushed Logistics Pulled Logistics Strategy - Fulfillment & Logistics Suppliers Procurement Logistics Plants Manufacturing Logistics Distribution Sales Logistics
  28. 28. <ul><li>TEG Market Size Calculation on Global Waste Incineration Capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Geothermal Installed Generating Capacity </li></ul><ul><li>TEG Output Power Projection </li></ul><ul><li>TEG Market Size Calculation on Geothermal Electricity </li></ul><ul><li>System Integrators - Waste Heat Potentiality </li></ul><ul><li>System Integrators – Geothermal Potentiality </li></ul><ul><li>System Integrators – Solar PV Potentiality </li></ul>Appendix
  29. 29. <ul><li>Global waste incineration was set on 220 millions tones per year for next 5 year (Mg equal to one ton) </li></ul><ul><li>Set 220K Mg/a in average per plant </li></ul><ul><li>220M Mg/(220Mg/a) = 1,000 plants worldwide </li></ul><ul><li>If each plant need 1,000m 2 for waste heat recycle, each m 2 will consume 100 pieces of 10cm 2 TEG; TEG TAM = 1,000x1,000*100 = 100 Million pieces </li></ul>Set 220K Mg/a in average per plant Appendix TEG Market Size Calculation on Global Waste Incineration Capacity
  30. 30. Appendix Geothermal Installed Generating Capacity
  31. 31. Source from: ORRA Lab Taiwan Appendix TEG Output Power Projection Hot Side Cold Side ΔT V A W=VA /0.01M 2 W=VA /1M 2 PFC Efficiency Output (W) 30°C 29°C 1°C 0.05 0.02 0.0010 0.100 0.95 0.8 0.076 70°C 30°C 40°C 0.97 0.48 0.4656 46.56 0.95 0.8 35.38 110°C 32°C 78°C 1.78 0.93 1.6554 165.54 0.95 0.8 125.81 150°C 35°C 115°C 2.49 1.31 3.2619 326.19 0.95 0.8 247.90 190°C 39°C 151°C 3.17 1.67 5.2939 529.39 0.95 0.8 402.33 230°C 43°C 187°C 3.82 2.06 7.8692 786.92 0.95 0.8 598.05
  32. 32. Appendix TEG Market Size Calculation on Geothermal Electricity
  33. 33. <ul><li>System Integrator – Waste Heat Recycling Power Generation : </li></ul>Appendix System Integrators - Waste Heat Potentiality System Integrator Field Country/Territory Veolia Environmental Service <ul><li>World 2nd largest waste management and environmental services company. </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in France </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>Combustion Association <ul><li>Heat Recovery Steam Generation (HRSG) that enables the use of waste heat for productive purposes in combined heat and power applications. meet California AB 29X and SB5X Peak Load Reduction Program requirements. </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in USA </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>Capstone Micro Turbine <ul><li>CR65 – the “R” for renewable – will be available with an optional stainless steel integrated heat exchanger.  </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in USA </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>Electra Therm <ul><li>Earn “Best of Show” honor by GEA Trade Show 2007.  </li></ul><ul><li>Nevada, USA </li></ul>
  34. 34. <ul><li>System Integrator – Geothermal Power Generation: </li></ul>Appendix System Integrators – Geothermal Potentiality System Integrator Field Country/Territory Calpine Corp. <ul><li>Owns the Geyers, the world largest geothermal power field; 725MWe in Sonoma/Lake county, CA. Operates 19 geothermal plants; </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in USA </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>Chevron Corp. <ul><li>the world’s largest private producer of geothermal energy. Owns Indonesia Darajat, Gunung Salak, and Philippine Tiwi, Mak-Ban power plants. Total 1,273MWe. </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in USA </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>AES Corp. <ul><li>Owns Philippine Zambals, 600MWe; Costa Rica 27.5MW </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in USA </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>Western GeoPower Corp. <ul><li>Owns 35MWe near The Geyers, 100MWe South Meager plants. </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in Canada </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>
  35. 35. <ul><li>System Integrator – Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation: </li></ul>Appendix System Integrators – Solar PV Potentiality System Integrator Field Country/Territory Sekisue Chemical <ul><li>Cumulated 60,000 houses (half of all new build) equipped solar photovoltaic power generation system; </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in Japan </li></ul><ul><li>200 companies WW </li></ul>Solon AG Fuer Solartechnik <ul><li>SOLON is one of Europe's leading manufacturers of solar modules and suppliers of photovoltaic systems for large-scale solar power plants. 85MW have been contracted worldwide. </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide services </li></ul>Aleo Solar AG <ul><li>Total capacity up-to-date is 100MW. </li></ul><ul><li>Founding of the joint venture avim solar with the Chinese Sunvim Group Co. Ltd. </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>Conergy AG <ul><li>Main products: Photovoltaic and wind energy. </li></ul><ul><li>Largest photovoltaic plant in Asia: SunTechnics commissioned to build a 20 MW solar power plant in in South Korea. </li></ul><ul><li>SunTechnics GmbH will be integrated into Conergy by end of 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Head quarter in Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Worldwide service </li></ul>

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